This is a very interesting discussion, and especially relevant to me since I'm in the market for our next (14th, and probably last) boat. FWIW, as others have said, my 2 cents (and certainly worth much less than that)...
Until the COVID-19 pandemic, it seemed to me to be a seller's market for most boats. The stock market was soaring, and a lot of people felt 'rich' and willing to spend money on a boat. Last year was frustrating and I saw several boats sell very fast, within days of being listed.
I'm only just beginning to see changes now. As others have said, it takes time for macro-economic changes to sink in. The biggest fundamental change that will affect the boat market will come from the realization that the COVID-19 crisis is long-term, as are the global economic repercussions.
Everyone is tired of social distancing and isolating at home, and would love to get back to 'normal' right now. Unfortunately, the inconvenient truth is that's not going to happen. Just this past week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institutes of Health division of Infectious diseases said:
“When is it going to end? We’re still at the beginning of it.”
The COVID-19 crisis is not going to end until there is an effective vaccine available, and enough has been manufactured and distributed so that a majority of people have been inoculated (I'm no expert on coronaviruses, but I did spend my career in biotechnology, much of it working in infectious diseases, and stay on top of current research findings with the COVID-19). The good news is that a vaccine seems highly likely, but it's going to take some time.
Likewise, the economic ramifications will be long term. Unemployment will remain high for years to come, as many jobs never return (such as in the restaurant, bar, and hotel business). This will have spillover effects into real estate, as rents come down because fewer businesses will be around or can afford them. All of this will keep a lid on the economy for years to come (as this past week's announcement from the Federal Reserve showed). Less money available will ultimately mean people will have less money for discretionary spending, especially on toys like boats.
These are unpleasant things, and human nature is to not like unpleasant things, to deny them. It's the oldest truism about human nature - people believe what they want to believe and disregard the rest. This includes the stock market, which so far has been generally disconnected from reality. Everyone would love to see a 'V-shaped' recovery and a quick return to 'normal'. But that's probably not going to happen. For the moment, regarding boat prices most of what I've experienced are sellers holding firm hoping for the 'quick bounce back', and brokers encouraging them to do so (since brokers make a higher commission on a higher price). It takes time for the thinking to become more realistic and evolve to 'something is better than nothing', and the need for money becomes acute and a willingness to take less now vs waiting and hoping for more later. I've seen some ridiculously overpriced boats that have been sitting on the market since last year, with so signs from the sellers (yet) that they're willing to come down appreciably. I'm a cash buyer and not looking for a gift, I just want to pay a fair price for a good boat, but so far that hasn't seemed to provide much leverage.
Within the past few weeks I'm beginning to see a few boats that seem more realistically priced now that they've had price reductions. As with any economic downturn, I would expect that boats in worse condition, the projects, will soften on price the most and sooner than the nice, best condition ones that are always in demand. How long it will take for prices overall to come down is anyone's guess. It will happen in lock-step with the slowly growing realization that the COVID-19 and resultant economic problems are not going away quickly, and will be a longer term problem. Maybe come this fall, as more businesses continue to go bankrupt and the ripple effect continues through the economy, prices will soften (though it's still amusing to see some newly listed boats come out at laughably high prices - it seems some people are still in denial or hoping for a sucker to come along with more money than common sense).
A lot of people are still in denial about the magnitude of the COVID-19 problem. My Admiral puts it bluntly and I think succinctly - she says it will take more bodies piling up for some people to realize how serious this is. As bad as it got in New York and some other places, enough people haven't died in enough places for it to sink in that this is real and serious. As that happens (as it will), boat prices will come down.
The pesky thing about the coronavirus (and science in general) is that it's true whether a person chooses to believe it or not. The coronavirus doesn't care what a person believes or doesn't believe, their politics, or anything else. The virus can't "care" about anything. The only thing the virus 'knows' is that if it comes in contact with mammalian lung cells, it will infect them.
Stay safe, stay sane, and most of all, stay sanitized!
