A lot of folks are being priced out. Not for small boats used on weekends or holidays nor for multimillion babies. But rather for the middle of the market. Although here people focus on fuel but for dollars spent believe cost of techs, wrenches and consumables has a greater impact. Add in escalating costs for berthing, insurance and storage costs for having a boat have greatly risen. Those costs are nearly the same regardless of purchase price as some costs are fixed by LOA and a tech costs the same per hour regardless of what he’s working on.
Net worth has fallen given past market performance so people in this group sense of disposable income has as well. Add in current concerns about fed debt limit and recession think people will want to decrease their exposure. Some will be more motivated to sell their boats now getting out while the going is good. That creates downward pressure.Some will wait if prices decline sharply. Wanting to have less of a difference between purchase and residual value decreasing supply. But over the next year expect enough people will be underwater with their boats or can’t justify carrying costs that prices will decline. Like with cars this will be tempered by the exorbitant price of new boats. So think used won’t fall that much unless the fed defaults or a full blown recession occurs.
FWIW, I agree with you Hippocampus.
Predicting the future is fun, because it's usually a wide-open blue-sky exercise. It's also one where most forecasts tend to be wrong. Reality has a nasty habit of coming up with unexpected surprises (see: COVID pandemic).
Whatever happens in the near/intermediate term with boat prices, barring a catastrophic and dramatic worldwide recession/depression, I think the impacts on the boat market will be lumpy, and perhaps regional.
Invariably, some sellers will be resistant to changing conditions, and will hang on to pricing out of step with what buyers are willing to pay. It's human nature to think that once prices have reached a certain level, that's where they belong and should 'get back up there' soon (see: the stock market).
Prices tend to decline in an oscillating stair-step pattern. Once buyers and sellers have acclimated to a price of '10', a price of '8' seems like a bargain and tends to get bid up to '9'. They'll decline to '7', again be seen as a relative bargain and bid up to '8', and so on.
I think there will also be further distinctions in pricing depending on condition. In the past couple of years it seemed like anything that floated (and some things that didn't...) would sell instantly for insane prices, reflecting the gotta-have-it frenzy of buyers. I suspect going forward boats in prime condition will (as always) command the best prices and sell the fastest, but the refugees from a scrap yard will sit longer, and if they ultimately move, for less money.
I agree with Hippocampus, I think the 7-8-9 figure megayacht market is in it's own universe and largely immune from economic forces that affect most people, and inexpensive toys (credit card money things) likewise less susceptible. But the 'middle' is where all the action, and changes, will happen.
Those are my 'predictions', guaranteed to be wrong.
