Coronavirus and buying a boat

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Greetings,
Mr. s. Re: Post #24. "... blown completely out of proportion by the media." Well, the "media" didn't cause the Chinese government to quarantine 57+++ MILLION people or cause numerous other countries, worldwide, to place severe travel restrictions on their populations did it?
Economic losses are anticipated to be in the multi TRILIION dollar range.



Out of proportion? Um...I don't think so.
 
If you are in touch with Global trade you would know this is a very serious situation. While the fatal rate is +/- 2% that is relatively high compared to the flu. The economic damage caused by the virus is already heavy and will get worse. About 20% of infected individuals are being hospitalized. The loss in worker productivity will be huge. A recession is almost a certainty between the actual economic losses and the uncertainty in everyone’s mind. Our economy is built on consumer spending and our consumers are almost tapped out. Consider also that from a historical perspective we are due for a downturn. How bad will it be? If I knew that I could make a billion dollars. YMMV.
 
Greetings,
Mr. s. Re: Post #24. "... blown completely out of proportion by the media." Well, the "media" didn't cause the Chinese government to quarantine 57+++ MILLION people or cause numerous other countries, worldwide, to place severe travel restrictions on their populations did it?
Economic losses are anticipated to be in the multi TRILIION dollar range.



Out of proportion? Um...I don't think so.


I'm referring to the Coronovirus as it affects the USA. The Chinese government is overreacting now to stem the virus after they were ineffective at the outbreak.

Those people dying in Washington State were living at a senior care facility.
 
Estimates I have been reading put the death rate of influenza at about 0.1% of those who get the flu. Covid 19 seems to be 2.0%

Therefore, multiply your countries annual deaths to flu by 20 to get an idea of the scale this may grow to. Not an insignificant number.

As it applies to boat buying, you might want to wait and see where virus this goes in terms of numbers, and if it comes in three waves...there may be a surge of boats for sale in the summer of 2021, considering the age of many yacht owners.
 
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I'm referring to the Coronovirus as it affects the USA....

The USA has no idea how big the problem is because they haven't been testing for it and isolating those who have it.

Yesterday when I checked, British Columbia, Canada where I live (population of 5 million) had done 10 times more testing than the whole of the United States (population of 327 million).
 
Agree with the last few posts. I think I'm going to take the wait and see approach. I think the next couple of months will say allot. Cheers to everyone who contributed to this post. Stay safe and healthy.
 
When I started looking for my boat, I assumed that I had roughly 20 years left to cruise. 5 years later when I purchased the boat, I had 15 left and had lost 25% of my cruising time. After a 2 year refit, I have my dream boat and 13 years (65%) of my original cruising time left.

If your cruising window is 20 years, you loose 5% for every year you wait. How much are you prepared to loose waiting for a better price, maybe?

Ted
I'm going to go a bit mathy here. Not trying to correct, but to offer a different perspective.

If you apply a discount to future years the picture changes a lot. The older you are when you start the steeper the discount curve. It really matters if you're 60 at start vs 40. The value of a cruise now turns out to be much higher now than in the future. Five years now could be worth more than the remaining 15 in terms of value. It adds a lot of support to the go now argument. Especially if you have ambitious plans or a bucket list to check.

Maybe a more intuitive way of looking at this would be to ask yourself how likely you are to be ready, able and willing to go cruising starting now, 5, 10 and 15 years from now.

Sorry I can't provide a graph from my phone. Hope it's clear to those interested. And happy to discuss in deeper detail.
 
Hmm, there are a few comments here that are spot on. A boat is NOT an investment, ever. I have had my boat for 3 1/2 years. I have learned so much, fix 95% of everything myself. I purchased a sailright sewing machine and now not only make my canvas, but I do it for other people too! What I thought would be a tinkering project has turned out to be a great love. All of my free time is spent working on her.

You have to ask yourself, how much do you like working on a boat? Are you prepared to take shelter from storms? Maybe scale down on that half million and have a land base as well?
 
Greetings,
Mr. MM. "The USA has no idea how big the problem is..." Exactly! Ignorance is bliss. The last few cases of CORVID-19 occurred in US citizens with NO travel history to areas where the virus currently is and NO known contact with anyone with a similar non-travel history.
"We're prepared" as voiced by Pence is a false statement IMO.
 
Price, mate. If the world goes to **** in the next 12 months boats will be able to be bought allot cheaper than the price they are now. If for some reason boating is not for me and I want to sell then I'm up the proverbial **** creek.

If the world goes to **** you may see distressed pricing on other assets.

Years ago when I was selling boats I listed a boat that had been used two years by an experienced owner. Times were tough and he was going to be lucky to get 50% out. When I mentioned this he just shrugged and pointed out that it wasn't nearly as painful as holding IBM during the same time.
 
Syjos,
I hope you are correct about this virus being "blown out of proportion". I really do, however, I think that the evidence now is clear. We are at the start of a global pandemic. This virus has shown it is not the flu or really "flu like". Yes flu is much worse than most people care to think, especially for the elderly and the one's with underlying conditions.
The novel Coronavirus is at least twice as contagious as the flu (based on the stats so far and they are changing daily). The death rate so far is 20 times higher than what we expect from the flu (comparing the same number of cases). 15% of the people who catch this require a higher medical intervention (oxygen therapy, etc) with about an additional 3-4% needing intensive care. The flu does not even come close to those numbers if you compare on same number of cases basis. This virus is also transmitted by people who have contracted the virus even before they show any symptoms (the flu is not like that). Therefore, you can't tell who to avoid (if you decide you would want to try that).

Other differences, we have no herd immunity, it is new so no one has a natural defence. There is no vaccine, no treatment (antivirals), that we have proof to effectively combat this.
Other differences, when has any country shut in (quarantined) 1/10 of the world's population (750,000,000 people) to try to slow down the spread of ANY disease? Other countries are following suit, to a lessor extent. China's efforts (after their first mistakes) appear to have been at least somewhat effective in slowing down the spread in China.

Due to the fact that this disease presents flu or cold like symptoms (at least initially) and that most cases with those symptoms are not tested, how do we know how widespread it is at this point???? You've heard of the ostrich that buries it's head in the sand??

I fear that if we don't implement (really soon) measures to limit social contact (cancel school, large gatherings like sports events, etc.), stop things like handshaking, hugging, friendly kissing, etc. this thing could get a big foothold in our populations and "overwhelm" our medical system's ability to deliver the necessary treatments that some people will require. This could result in an even higher death rate? Yes 80% of victims have "mild" symptoms, but if we get large numbers who contract it, the numbers needed medical help could be staggering.

I pray I am wrong and you are right, but the markets don't seem to think so, and I fear the economic fallout could be as bad as the disease! That has not happened with the flu.
 
It has been established that the virus was most likely present in Washington state as early as mid January and math says 500-1500 people there are now infected.

It is probable that concentrations similar to this are present in other locations in the US.

This cat is, most likely, out of the bag.
 
It has been established that the virus was most likely present in Washington state as early as mid January and math says 500-1500 people there are now infected.

It is probable that concentrations similar to this are present in other locations in the US.

This cat is, most likely, out of the bag.

Interesting.

I had a holiday from work in January and fell sick during that week. It was the worst flu I've ever had...bad enough for me to know I'd put dying of the flu right behind Ebola as one of the worst ways to go.

I didn't seek medical attention and just rode it out. I've never had the chills where my whole body was shaking. I couldn't eat more than a couple cups of thin soup per day, but never puked. The longest part was the last, where I had a cough go really deep into my lungs.

That's why this virus is so interesting to me, because the flu I had seemed like an entry level version of Covid 19. Then again, maybe I had the real McCoy..?
 
If you think that you will be making money on boat then boating is not for you.
Get your boat and enjoy it with your family while you still can.
You can always use the boat to quarantine your self during the apocalypse!
 
Covid 19 seems to be highly transmissible as evidenced by its rapid spread to so many countries. I crunched the numbers yesterday and the province of BC (Canada) with a population of 5 million had tested 10 times more people than the whole of the United States, as had Ontario, and 20 Canadians were found to have the virus.

This suggests, because the US wasn't testing to the same degree, there were at least 185 people wandering around the US interacting with people, who interacted with other people, etc. China's numbers are suspect as well.

If this virus follows the trajectory of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19 (both being highly transmissible with an approximate death rate of 2%) the first wave of infections will peak in June. In that pandemic about 3 million died around June, 20 million died around October, and about 7 million died the next March. We're a lot smarter now in terms of hygiene and self isolation when sick, but there are about 4 times as many people on the planet now.

I'm waiting to see what happens by June...

That is some excellent analytics, you should post on boards online. It is not to cause an alarm but to provide your point of view.
 
Buy the boat on credit. When society breaks down completely, default on the loan. Now you have it virtually for free.

The numbers being thrown about for infection rate, mortality rate, etc. are (I think) completely ignorant. Until you test a large and random sample of the population, both for active and past disease, the reference class in that statistic is missing and is a fantasy. Eventually we will know the answer, but today nobody does.
 
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Greetings,
Mr. s. Re: Post #24. "... blown completely out of proportion by the media." Well, the "media" didn't cause the Chinese government to quarantine 57+++ MILLION people or cause numerous other countries, worldwide, to place severe travel restrictions on their populations did it?
Economic losses are anticipated to be in the multi TRILIION dollar range.



Out of proportion? Um...I don't think so.

Well, you have a 50/50 chance of being wrong........or is it right? :confused:
 
Syjos,
I hope you are correct about this virus being "blown out of proportion". I really do, however, I think that the evidence now is clear. We are at the start of a global pandemic. This virus has shown it is not the flu or really "flu like". Yes flu is much worse than most people care to think, especially for the elderly and the one's with underlying conditions.
The novel Coronavirus is at least twice as contagious as the flu (based on the stats so far and they are changing daily). The death rate so far is 20 times higher than what we expect from the flu (comparing the same number of cases). 15% of the people who catch this require a higher medical intervention (oxygen therapy, etc) with about an additional 3-4% needing intensive care. The flu does not even come close to those numbers if you compare on same number of cases basis. This virus is also transmitted by people who have contracted the virus even before they show any symptoms (the flu is not like that). Therefore, you can't tell who to avoid (if you decide you would want to try that).

Other differences, we have no herd immunity, it is new so no one has a natural defence. There is no vaccine, no treatment (antivirals), that we have proof to effectively combat this.
Other differences, when has any country shut in (quarantined) 1/10 of the world's population (750,000,000 people) to try to slow down the spread of ANY disease? Other countries are following suit, to a lessor extent. China's efforts (after their first mistakes) appear to have been at least somewhat effective in slowing down the spread in China.

Due to the fact that this disease presents flu or cold like symptoms (at least initially) and that most cases with those symptoms are not tested, how do we know how widespread it is at this point???? You've heard of the ostrich that buries it's head in the sand??

I fear that if we don't implement (really soon) measures to limit social contact (cancel school, large gatherings like sports events, etc.), stop things like handshaking, hugging, friendly kissing, etc. this thing could get a big foothold in our populations and "overwhelm" our medical system's ability to deliver the necessary treatments that some people will require. This could result in an even higher death rate? Yes 80% of victims have "mild" symptoms, but if we get large numbers who contract it, the numbers needed medical help could be staggering.

I pray I am wrong and you are right, but the markets don't seem to think so, and I fear the economic fallout could be as bad as the disease! That has not happened with the flu.


I hope I'm right too.

I tend to be hopefully optimistic. Glass half full kida' guy.

My wife calls me Pollyanna

I recall the media getting everybody excited about SARS, Swine Flu, bird flu etc etc.

And big wind storm, snow blizzards, and other weather events.

I could worry about Coronavirus while driving my car and get killed in a wreck or die of a stroke or heart attack.

I'm going to not let some "pandemic" get in my way of enjoying whatever time I have left.
 
Buy the boat on credit. When society breaks down completely, default on the loan. Now you have it virtually for free.

The numbers being thrown about for infection rate, mortality rate, etc. are (I think) completely ignorant. Until you test a large and random sample of the population, both for active and past disease, the reference class in that statistic is missing and is a fantasy. Eventually we will know the answer, but today nobody does.

I think so. We don't know quite what we're dealing with. I've heard varying reports of average mortality rate.
 
My opinion is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

No, I do not think society is going to collapse. Not a chance and we have not seen that in China, which is over it’s peak.

What we Are going to see is a widespread “epidemic” that will dramatically affect employee absenteeism, and will in all probability overwhelm local medical services ability to effectively treat the 20% or so of folks that need advanced medical care.

The real question is what are YOU doing to prepare?

What we have done is to stock up on our already pretty substantial food supplies to eliminate our temptation to go to the grocery store during the peak times of infection. Yes we have gloves, hand sanitizer and yes face masks with eye shields.
These may not be 100% effective but I will guarantee that they will stop the “eye, mouth touching” that is a high probability way of contracting any virus from surface contamination.

I am a first responser at a Department of Homeland Security regulated critical infrastructure facility, and my employer is taking very positive measures to reduce infection risk, and to isolate first responders from the rest of the employee pool. We are hoping that these measures are effective.

In my opinion people need to prepare to socially distance themselves from society in general for up to a month or so. That means having ample supplies to avoid having to go into public areas that are contamination rich environments. Things like schools, large workplaces, grocery stores, etc...

Chances are very good to excellent that your utilities will stay working, so things like non perishable groceries and bottled water are not needed. What is needed are foods that you would normally eat, and easy to prepare things so that if you are sick you will not be tempted to go out and expose the rest of us to infection. If you are not sick being able to avoid high contamination areas might keep keep you from being infected.
 
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I'm going to be a bit presumptuous here and suggest the OP isn't asking the right question. Should he buy an expensive boat if he is not sure he's going to like it is far more important than how deadly Covid-19 is.

We can debate the seriousness of the illness until the cows come home but the truth is, nobody really knows for sure just yet. So while we can't judge the severity of the health issue, the economic issue is HUGE! I just read that Coke is not going to be able to meet the demand for Diet Coke because some ingredients are sourced in China. I know the world economy does not depend on Diet Coke, but its just one example of the insideous economic ripple effects of this crisis.
 
That is a good read, especially towards the bottom. They cite several studies that suggest the actual number of cases is 10 to 30x what is being reported. That means containment is impossible, but also that the mortality rate may be lower by that amount.

For the OP, maybe scoring 50 tons of hand sanitizer is the way to go. Trade it for the boat in 8 months time. It'll be like gold!
 
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Our supermarkets are devoid of toilet paper and facial tissues. What are we expecting? I get tissues for sopping up nasal discharge,but does CV come with malevolent diarrhea?
A toilet paper supplier is reopening an Australian manufacturing plant, maybe they have been importing it from China; thus the fear of shortage and anxiety of dirty bottoms.
A fine time to buy a boat, an escape from the worries of the day. And for a resumption of making stuff in Australia, instead of shipping out the raw materials and shipping in the finished product.
 
Agree with the last few posts. I think I'm going to take the wait and see approach. I think the next couple of months will say allot. Cheers to everyone who contributed to this post. Stay safe and healthy.


And definitely keep an eye on exchange rates. Benefiting from even 5% would be a big bonus on your purchase.
 
This has been my plan for the zombie apocalypse, Pick your hated politician apocalypse, SARS, whine flu, exes, Mondays, Fridays, holidays, etc. Other than a hurricane, you can never go wrong getting on a boat.


Tell that to the Diamond Princess passengers . . . Or the people the cruise line will be trying to sign up for the next trip . . . after it is "deep cleaned" . . .
 
For the OP, maybe scoring 50 tons of hand sanitizer is the way to go. Trade it for the boat in 8 months time. It'll be like gold!

That gave me a giggle yesterday. In today's news: 'Since the coronavirus outbreak, prices of surgical masks have increased sixfold, N95 respirators have tripled in cost and protective gowns cost twice as much, the WHO said.'

Someone's making money!

https://reut.rs/38h0wAZ
 
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