Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[BruceK]

Cunard`s (Carnival)Queen Elizabeth is headed for Perth(Fremantle) Western Australia, refused entry to Bali, Indonesia,15% of its 2000 pax have Covid. Plus more infected crew.
Poor effort really. Majestic Princess had 25% pax infected arriving Sydney. Maybe the "4th wave" is waning.

[smitty477]

Maybe there was more than 15% positive maybe there was less than 15% positive ...t has been very difficult to find any data that is reasonably supported.
Here is one article:
https://headtopics.com/au/cruise-tur...break-32154118

A couple of quotes from that article...
"A spokeswoman for Cunard, owner of the ship, confirmed there was “an elevated level of transmission” on board, but declined to provide case numbers."

"The positive cases, who were all either mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, according to Carnival cruises, were able to disembark via a separate door and advised not to use public transport."

[Hippocampus]

advised not to use public transport."

How many will comply?

Issue with Covid, influenza, RSV or any now endemic infection spread by aerosol/droplets is the Ro. All these infections will be around for the indefinite future. Regardless of what China thinks we will have a hopefully low level of infected people in the future. To keep it low the Ro needs to be low. That depends upon the actions and behavior of those commercial entities that host gatherings of people. Cruise ships, restaurants, concerts, offices, hospitals and to some extent public buildings. Sterilization of the air and adequate turnover are known effective measures. Either in response to public outcry, lost bookings or legislative mandate the cruise ship industry can either lower the Ro or continue to be a vector of spread of respiratory illnesses of which Covid is only one.
Unless you’re diligently using k95 /n95 masks you’re not decreasing your risk by much. If using the standard throw aways you see just about every where you do decrease others risk. But only if worn correctly. Unfortunately ever more so people are egocentric so are unlikely to mask nor avoid public transport. Neither does the general population take to heart the impact of morbidity and seem to only be concerned about mortality.
Folks also seem ignorant of the original reason for customs and immigration services. Practique was granted only after the ship was believed to be not a risk for spreading infection.
I’m uncertain as to current behavior before disembarkment either at the end of the cruise or intermediate stops. Ideally everyone leaving the boat should be tested. Those testing positive left on the boat with the boat flying a Q flag. (Yes that Q is for quarantine). That’s the way it was for the 1918-9 flu. My grandfather was forced to stay on his ship in the Brooklyn navy yard within sight of his house for 2 months after his discharge. He never got sick but no one was allowed to leave his ship until there were no cases of flu on the entire ship. Likelihood of similar action now is nil. He’d tell me of the anguish of seeing his new bride waving to him and being unable to touch her or even talk with. Now we get “well it’s unlikely to kill me so I won’t do anything to decrease spread”. Same with flu vaccines, boosters or any public health measure. Interestingly our behavior with RSV is better. Premies are vaccinated. RSV kids don’t go to daycare or school. Parents are alert and responsive. So suspect the current RSV outbreak will be curtailed. Fortunately the anti vaccine craziness we’ve seen with Covid, polio and measles won’t happen again.

[SteveK]

“There are active cases in cabins throughout the ship as well, and they [aren’t telling] anyone. They say it is a privacy issue and they can’t share with anyone, but medical teams in protective gear are seen going to rooms.”

I searched locally as the news is not reporting (or I miss it) that local cruise ships are having similar issues as ones down under. I found some ships did not enter Canada and Pax left in San Francisco as an example.
It seems North America is under reporting, not reporting.

[BruceK]

There are requirements for at least NSW state for cruise ships to test all pax before docking when there is a Covid outbreak. So when Majestic Princess docked in Sydney 12 November it had 800 0f 3200 pax positive making it "Tier 3".
The "Tier" classification stems from the Ruby Princess disaster early in the Covid pandemic which led to cruising being banned until April this year.


Grand Princess docks in Newcastle NSW on 29 November and has enough cases to be Tier 2 already. If memory serves, it was stuck in Japan early in the pandemic with many cases with authorities unsure as to the safe course of action.

Princess seems well represented in these difficulties, not sure why.


Here is information on "Tier" classification. Note it only applies to ships docking in NSW. https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/travel/cruising-rules

[smitty477]

In Aus Covid cases are increasing weekly by double digits with NSW at +18% week over week.
I cannot tell how many are being tested to get any frame of reference....

https://www.health.gov.au/health-ale...and-statistics

[Group9]

Originally Posted by smitty477

In Aus Covid cases are increasing weekly by double digits with NSW at +18% week over week.
I cannot tell how many are being tested to get any frame of reference....

https://www.health.gov.au/health-ale...and-statistics

Not possible. They are all vaccinated. The science is settled.

[Hippocampus]

G9 please give data as to vaccination rates. Please post how many have received the two boosters. Please then compare morbidity and mortality rates for those who have completed the complete program to whose who have not.
You are correct vaccination does work. The science is settled. Fully vaccinated people are less like to get sick enough as to require hospitalization or die.
Yes as the virus has evolved it has become more resistant to the vaccines people have received the past but the sarcasm of your posts is refuted by science.

[smitty477]

Originally Posted by Group9

Not possible. They are all vaccinated. The science is settled.

Here is another view of the data that is available. These have the most recent 14-day update statistics for each area...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. s. Sign-in wall...

[smitty477]

Originally Posted by Hippocampus

G9 please give data as to vaccination rates. Please post how many have received the two boosters. Please then compare morbidity and mortality rates for those who have completed the complete program to whose who have not.
You are correct vaccination does work. The science is settled. Fully vaccinated people are less like to get sick enough as to require hospitalization or die.
Yes as the virus has evolved it has become more resistant to the vaccines people have received the past but the sarcasm of your posts is refuted by science.

Many of your questions are answered here...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

[smitty477]

Originally Posted by RT Firefly

Greetings,
Mr. s. Sign-in wall...

None when we use it.

[heysteve]

Thinking vaccines aren't effective because most people dying are vaccinated doesn't take into account the percentage of people vaccinated. If 100% of people were vaccinated, for example, only vaccinated people would die. This is called a base rate fallacy. Here's a good article on the subject:



https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...inated-people/

[Hippocampus]

ustralia 88% 85% 77%

253 64,248,569

77% fully vaccinated (also from NYT).

[Benthic2]

What does "Fully Vaccinated" mean ? The original 2 shots ? a booster ? a bivalent ( omicron specific ) booster ?

The vaccination cards the CDC printed don't have enough lines on them!

[dannc]

We have been working from home since 1Q2020 but people have slowly been returning to the campus to work in an open office plan. Not a surprise that those people returning to work on the campus are frequently out sick with a variety of illnesses including The Virus. Everyone had to be vaccinate or they would be fired. This is at a much higher rate of people calling in sick than I have ever seen. Part of it is the open office environment but I know people working at a different company that has cubes and they have high levels of people calling in sick too.

We are being forced back to the campus so it will just get worse next year.

[AlaskaProf]

Originally Posted by Benthic2

What does "Fully Vaccinated" mean ? The original 2 shots ? a booster ? a bivalent ( omicron specific ) booster ?

The vaccination cards the CDC printed don't have enough lines on them!

I have had all five of the Moderna inoculations. They flip the card over and print the info on a sticker. Plenty of room.

[smitty477]

Originally Posted by dannc

We have been working from home since 1Q2020 but people have slowly been returning to the campus to work in an open office plan. Not a surprise that those people returning to work on the campus are frequently out sick with a variety of illnesses including The Virus. Everyone had to be vaccinate or they would be fired. This is at a much higher rate of people calling in sick than I have ever seen. Part of it is the open office environment but I know people working at a different company that has cubes and they have high levels of people calling in sick too.

We are being forced back to the campus so it will just get worse next year.

So many folks we know never stayed home at all.

[Cold Duck]

Hawaii had it right. They declared fishing on your boat a critical activity, but charter boats were banned. So, we had the marina, launch ramp and ocean to ourselves! Oh, they also declared surfing a critical activity, you couldn't lay on the beach, but you could carry your board over it to surf. No logic, we just went with the flow LOL

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by Cold Duck

Hawaii had it right. They declared fishing on your boat a critical activity, but charter boats were banned. So, we had the marina, launch ramp and ocean to ourselves! Oh, they also declared surfing a critical activity, you couldn't lay on the beach, but you could carry your board over it to surf. No logic, we just went with the flow LOL

Sounds logical enough to me. Let people do the things they can do alone or with their immediate family, but not the ones they'll be doing while close to strangers.