Will the rise of AI replace us all??

[SteveK]

Or possibly it was before his time. I was quite a young lad when I heard it from an older gent.

No internet then and the rabbit ears did not pull in the channel I guess.

 

[KnotYet]

No internet then and the rabbit ears did not pull in the channel I guess.

Circa 1971 I enjoyed them on both vinyl and 8-track tape (in the car).
They performed on local radio in L.A. but I wasn't there yet.

 

[Hippocampus]

A fundamental question posed in the AI channels is who does not benefit from AI as it progresses? That group of answers is sobering especially when considering classic risk reward reality thinking.

Economically this is a critically important question. Some may recall when there were plenty of good high paying jobs for machinists. In recent years cancam programmers had to search for 70-80 year olds to film them. Recording their every movement to translate it allowing robotic assembly line production. There are still a few highly skilled machinists around but that job has pretty much disappeared.
I have a smart house which with geothermal, remote monitoring, solar and various gadgets pretty much takes care of itself. Virtually everything in it is plug and play. Next step is to add AI so it will self diagnose any faults. I’m half way there already. Both my geothermal and solar are remotely monitored. Have gotten a couple of messages already telling me errors and how to fix them myself when they can’t be fixed remotely. With AI that will expand exponentially. Electricians, plumbers and other tradesmen will need to be highly educated but once installations are troubleshooted and complete there will be much fewer service calls.
My next car will be full electric. I have a riivian on order. Other than tires virtually all service is done remotely. It’s very rare that any EV requires in person service. Again the skill set is entirely different from that from a historical wrench given the absence of ICE. Need for mechanics will fall.
Neighbor of a son in law currently has a B testing law mover. Much like current generation vacuum cleaners it does its thing on its own. Expect autonomous dozers, graders, witch ditches, pipe layers, and all road construction/repair machinery.
When production workers are AI driven machines the need for middle management and HR falls. The dynamic between labor and capital is even further distorted than the current bad situation.
Have one child who manages the section doing solid tumor research at Farber. She’s protected given research by definition is new so she still manages humans.
The other raises corporate funding for American cancer. She meets with CFOs, and other three digit officers. She’s protected as well. My son in laws are a hydrologic engineer and a teacher. So also protected. If you have kids and/or grandkids in my view you should be educating yourself about AI. This thread suggests to me many don’t understand basic terms and concepts.
Yes there will be plenty of jobs but for those without a specialized skill set and education negotiating strength of labor against management will take a turn for the worst. Personally believe taxes need to be much more progressive to allow young and future generations to be educated sufficiently to be competitive. The continuing amassing of huge wealth by the 1% is distorting our politics, social intercourse and effecting quality of life. With AI and its ability to change the nature of work, generate false images, false misleading posts on social media, distort public forums those 1%ers garner huge power. Mechanisms for the public to limit that power are imperative.

 

[KnotYet]

H, I can only disagree with a minor point which is that all vehicles require routine
maintenance. All are built with conventional tires, wheels, suspension and steering
components which require at least yearly inspection, alignment and component
repair/replacement. The only services that EV eliminates are the IC engine items
like oil changes, filter replacement, belts, plugs, etc. A major improvement? Yes.

 

[sunchaser]

H
What you describe is fun for well heeled areas populated by highly educated people. The question I posed is how the earth’s living poorly population will benefit from AI and who pays for it.

Toys that we fortunate few enjoy cannot be imagined for those that lack many of life’s basic necessities.

 

[kthoennes]

Boy, I have a completely opposite impression as many of the posters on here about AI and tech in general. I happen to run a courthouse, about 22 courtrooms. They are what you'd consider very high tech, some of the most well-equipped and technologically advanced in the country (I know, surprising to some, for the state I'm in). My father recently asked me why there seemed to be so many tech problems in the recent high profile Murdaugh trial in South Carolina. I sent him a snapshot of a wiring distribution room in my facility. Each one looks like the wiring map of the space shuttle, or the wiring center for a NASA facility. My point is that more and more, when we crank up tech levels to that incredible degree, the systems become more and more fragile and vulnerable and delicate and contingent on rare parts and the most trivial failure can bring everything to a screeching halt.

Voice over IP phone systems -- the network crashes and now all your phones are dead (used to be parallel, independent communication systems, now business phones and computers run on one network). Sure, cell systems might be the contingency plan instead now, but go through some local natural disasters or crises, even relatively "mild" or limited ones, and that'll open your eyes to the vulnerability of cell networks. Can't get chips for car repairs. Squirrel chews a cable somewhere and part of the city goes dark, or communications die. One car accident that smashes into a power pole, traffic signals go dead, massive traffic jams result. I went to a conference on system vulnerabilities a couple years ago and the presenter showed us a dam spillway control system that relied on a single circuit board about as big as a playing card. One loose contact in the dashboard connection ribbon and my Escalade goes dark, turns the vehicle into a 6,500 lb. useless lump of steel until it's fixed. I could go on but you get the idea. You might have the most sophisticated courtroom in the country that would make Jean Luc Picard envious, and one attorney spills a cup of coffee into a floor junction box and the zillion dollar courtroom is dead in the water. All this impressive tech, and whether ChatGPT can write really good haiku's still depends on nobody tripping over a cord, or a three year old not sticking a fork into a power outlet.

A few years ago a janitor knocked over a mop bucket full of water and it ran under the wiring room door. You can imagine the result. One unhappy employee in a corporate data center with a pair of hedge clippers could bring a company to its knees for days. Every time a company assures me that my personal data is safe I want to burst out laughing (yeah, thanks Equifax). No, I don't worry about ChatGPT or AI or tech in general, because one spilled cup of coffee, one traffic accident, one squirrel, one lightning strike, or that one repair tech who took a vacation to Mexico and won't be at work to reboot that server until next week and Ernie is the only guy who knows how, can still bring Skynet to a screeching halt. After years and years of customer annoyance, the nation's largest cell carrier can't even screen out spam calls to my phone, and I'm supposed to worry about HAL taking over? Nah.

 

[Northern Spy]

I feel like I should be concerned about AI, but I am perplexed that if I purchase something on Amazon, say, a plunger, I get bombarded with plunger ads for quite some time. "Since you bought this plunger recently, perhaps you would be interested in all of these plungers." If one of the world's richest guys running one of the world's biggest retailers can't figure out that I only need one plunger every 20 or so years, I think we have a ways to go on machine learning and AI.

The few times I interacted with Chat GPT was very disappointing. It wasn't even able to get dates in chronological order.

On the other hand, the "real AI" is likely being developed by DARPA and the foreign equivalents. That gives me pause.

That and the fact that as a human race, we went from the very first theories about intelligence to intelligence testing to the Eugenics Movement in less than ten years.

Whoopsie.

Heck, we are still developing models for trying to define human cognition, let alone machine cognition.

The other scary aspect is how we've been misled by an obscurant, BS, dead-ended post-modern philosophy. If we as a society can't develop and use rational thought, how the heck is a machine going to help?

Hopefully, the Sorbonne isn't working on AI.

 

[Hippocampus]

Want to be terrified look into the current knowledge base and social implications of the ongoing bioengineering world. Our understanding of genetics, epigenetics, Transcriptomics, proteomics is such if applied those with sufficient capital can engineer their offspring to be healthier, live longer, be more intelligent, have more athletic abilities and even can predetermine their emotional constitution. Eventually as this field expands in knowledge humans will evolve into a species subset that’s enhanced in capabilities and the unwashed masses. Like AI changing the fabric of society it’s not if but when.

 

[Northern Spy]

Want to be terrified look into the current knowledge base and social implications of the ongoing bioengineering world. Our understanding of genetics, epigenetics, Transcriptomics, proteomics is such if applied those with sufficient capital can engineer their offspring to be healthier, live longer, be more intelligent, have more athletic abilities and even can predetermine their emotional constitution. Eventually as this field expands in knowledge humans will evolve into a species subset that’s enhanced in capabilities and the unwashed masses. Like AI changing the fabric of society it’s not if but when.

Great book. The Gene: An Intimate History, by Siddhartha Mukherjee.

He also writes about Eugenics, how it was implemented before we had any idea at all what we were doing.

 

[Art]

Cloning... when perfected... Uhoh, Uhoh

 

[Hippocampus]

Nothing to do with cloning Art. Everything to do with genetic engineering. With current individuals use of transcriptomics allows manipulation of which codons are read or not read and which genes are turned on or off.
Most people would have little interest in making a copy of themselves which including all the faults we all have. But a lot of interest in improving themselves and their offspring.

Problem is in this field they’ve been keeping a relatively low profile. Most people haven’t taken the effort to even google the terms I’ve used in my above posts or the brief wiki descriptions. So they can’t appreciate the implications of this body of study. Yes, opportunities for amazing benefits. You can correct or suppress genetic errors. Markly decrease cancer risks. Markly decrease the incidence of a host of genetic diseases but there’s a dark side as well. This is not eugenics. Nothing like it as it has nothing to do with controlling who gives birth.

 

[sunchaser]

H
Half a century ago Ira Levin wrote a great novel called "The Boys From Brazil." It was quickly made into a movie. In essence Dr Josef Mengele was alve and well and doing his horrible stuff after WW II in Brazil.

If you were to grow up on a farm, ranch or in KY horse country you would actively practice genetic engineering whether on crops or animals. Steph Curry is a great basketball player benefitting from good genes similarly to Christian McCaffery in football.

The tools one can avail themselves of for genetic engineering will always be changing but the concept the same. The one group of genes that cannot seemingly be changed in humans are those affecting the brain, the chase for dominance and eventual self destruction.

For most of us on TF the sea is as close as we can get to nirvana. Genetics pre dispose us to chase joy, self satisfaction, perfection and healing. Heck we even chase the perfect boat as debated on the current Unicorn thread.

 

[backinblue]

Personally, I'm not afraid of anything that cannot power or fuel itself. I'm pretty good at unplugging things.

If I'm ever in the hospital on life support, unplug me and plug me back in and see if it fixes me.

 

[backinblue]

AI already trains itself. That’s the definition of machine learning.

AI can already write code. It’s just a matter of time before AI will create more AI without human involvement.

Computers have been writing code for a long time. Not specifically AI, but good point.

Personally, I'm not sure whe we are so fearful of this technology. I remember when calculators were first introduced in classrooms and everyone fearing that humans would never learn math. I just missed out on needing to learn how to use a slide rule. Look at the internet. All worldly knowledge at our fingertips, no need to own an encyclopedia or go to a library. Have these things helped or hurt society?

I look forward to exponetial growth in computing power. Think of that will help us cure diseases and fix other problems in the world. I remember about 45 yrs ago when a factory I worked at invested in some automation that would replace a dozen or more workers and everyone was up in arms. I can see AI replacing a lot of jobs and not just manual labor. AI might actually do a better job than some doctors and lawyers and therapists, etc. Ever have robotic surgery? Some day that could probably be done w/o a surgeon for common surgeries.

So I view AI as just another technological advancement like we've seen throughout human history. Yes it needs some controls and regulations and laws, like anything else. But I don't see it a a doomsday scenario.

 

[Art]

Nothing to do with cloning Art. Everything to do with genetic engineering. With current individuals use of transcriptomics allows manipulation of which codons are read or not read and which genes are turned on or off.
Most people would have little interest in making a copy of themselves which including all the faults we all have. But a lot of interest in improving themselves and their offspring.

Problem is in this field they’ve been keeping a relatively low profile. Most people haven’t taken the effort to even google the terms I’ve used in my above posts or the brief wiki descriptions. So they can’t appreciate the implications of this body of study. Yes, opportunities for amazing benefits. You can correct or suppress genetic errors. Markly decrease cancer risks. Markly decrease the incidence of a host of genetic diseases but there’s a dark side as well. This is not eugenics. Nothing like it as it has nothing to do with controlling who gives birth.

Hipp - you should read deeper into statement implications [i.e. full meaning] of my concise, abbreviated posts... especially words I now underlined in quoted #100, in this instance.

Cloning... when perfected... Uhoh, Uhoh

The "when perfected" was referring to creating the perfect human through gene manipulation [engineering]... then clone by the millions.

 

[Art]

Computers have been writing code for a long time. Not specifically AI, but good point.

Personally, I'm not sure whe we are so fearful of this technology. I remember when calculators were first introduced in classrooms and everyone fearing that humans would never learn math. I just missed out on needing to learn how to use a slide rule. Look at the internet. All worldly knowledge at our fingertips, no need to own an encyclopedia or go to a library. Have these things helped or hurt society?

I look forward to exponetial growth in computing power. Think of that will help us cure diseases and fix other problems in the world. I remember about 45 yrs ago when a factory I worked at invested in some automation that would replace a dozen or more workers and everyone was up in arms. I can see AI replacing a lot of jobs and not just manual labor. AI might actually do a better job than some doctors and lawyers and therapists, etc. Ever have robotic surgery? Some day that could probably be done w/o a surgeon for common surgeries.

So I view AI as just another technological advancement like we've seen throughout human history. Yes it needs some controls and regulations and laws, like anything else. But I don't see it a a doomsday scenario.

Agreed!

I hold cautionary-fear due to "some" humans' intents and actions... not much else! AI kinks will get worked out... it will become a productive tool.

We have top notch engineers working on heat capture and radial-temperature transferal-absorption details that have never been conclusively worked through [i.e. satisfied]. We're breaking into new territory of solar energy absorption/transfer.

The following are minimal excerpts from white-papers our engineers are writing... regarding proprietary apparatus for generating electricity to power buildings' battery banks and electric vehicles at highway and other specific locations.

"Used the simplest Rayleigh Number Nusselt Number relationship available. / No modeling of the fluid flow with the Navier-Stokes and CFD approaches needs apparent. / assuming a laminar steady-state flow."

We already use AI for assistance in some parameters.

 

[Northern Spy]

I'm not fearful of AI.

I'm fearful of those who would control AI to benefit some and repress others. That seems almost inevitable.

 

[backinblue]

Funny but the news was just doing a story on AI and the assumption that AI would someday replace airplane pilots. Another obvious and maybe sooner development will be replacing truck drivers. Some will decry the loss of jobs and potential dangers. I'd feel safer on the highway with self-driving trucks than a human in unknown condition, possibly fatigued and potentially taking substances, legal or otherwise.

 

[backinblue]

I'm not fearful of AI.

I'm fearful of those who would control AI to benefit some and repress others. That seems almost inevitable.

That is already in place on social media and search engines.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. NS. "I'm fearful of those who would control AI to benefit some and repress others." A reasonable fear when humans are in control but the much greater fear, IMO, is AI sentience and it being in control which is the thrust of this discussion.

 

[Hippocampus]

“The one group of genes that cannot seemingly be changed in humans are those affecting the brain, the chase for dominance and eventual self destruction. “

There’s no reason these genes and those involved in mental illness cannot be manipulated. The quoted statement is not true.

Please realized I spent a segment of my professional life diagnosing and treating genetic disease, I’m totally delighted we are now at the brink of actually eliminating these illnesses among others. I’m further totally delighted with the current advances in computer science. But remember Einstein and Bohr lead to Oppenheimer. So need to except the possibility of a dark side if the public doesn’t stay educated, informed and concerned about minimizing those possibilities.

 

[Art]

“The one group of genes that cannot seemingly be changed in humans are those affecting the brain, the chase for dominance and eventual self destruction. “

There’s no reason these genes and those involved in mental illness cannot be manipulated. The quoted statement is not true.

Please realized I spent a segment of my professional life diagnosing and treating genetic disease, I’m totally delighted we are now at the brink of actually eliminating these illnesses among others. I’m further totally delighted with the current advances in computer science. But remember Einstein and Bohr lead to Oppenheimer. So need to except the possibility of a dark sideif the public doesn’t stay educated, informed and concerned about minimizing those possibilities.

The public's multi billion persons, per se... vastly consists of followers. Simply wanting to spend a not too eventful life on planet Earth, and, not wanting to stay educated on how to divert the "dark side" you mention above. Relatively few leaders stand out; and; they are often alone at first, with comrades gathering as the leader acquires position of power [their standing alone at first can be a good or bad thing].

Leaders: Some have goodwill at heart... others not so much... and, a few are down right evil with their innermost intents. It is the bad-intent leaders that must be controlled... by the public, eventually. That said, the "public" loves to follow leaders who catch and then control the public's minds' eyes. So, the control of bad-intent leaders too often comes later rather than sooner. Examples are many in history.

In this case of AI: - Good-Intension Leaders have opportunities to assist humanity in thousands of ways. Bad-Intension Leaders can really F things up! We shall see, We shall see...

 

[Art]

Greetings,
Mr. NS. "I'm fearful of those who would control AI to benefit some and repress others." A reasonable fear when humans are in control but the much greater fear, IMO, is AI sentience and it being in control which is the thrust of this discussion.

Gloria - OH LOOK!!! Soooo sweet!!! That AI bunker just birthed its own twin AI modules. Each with a set of 50 MM weapons and codes for nuclear apparatus. AI birth only takes nano seconds these days!

Mildred - Well Gloria... I understand in Silicone Valley there are mainframe AI's in competition to create the perfect human removal tool, where bodies evaporate. So... no muss, no fuss. Not even ashes remain.

Gloria - Mildred... don't know about you but all this turning into reality during a period of just a few months kinda scares me. Mildred, hello Mildred... where'd you go?? I see nothing where you were standing.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. A. Just for you, Gloria and Mildred...

 

[Barking Sands]

Here are a few words by Yuval Noah Harari regarding recent effects of the algorithms for facebook and youtube and other information feeds etc that had a prescribed goal. AI may do the same, more effectively, with its own goals in mind. We like to think we are in absolute control and impervious to subtle yet powerful manipulative informational effects, but recent events show that is not the case. I mean...dont you see it? IMO the danger of AI is not from taking over your cars or planes or even power grid. Its from taking over much more subtle but complex things like information that bend the sense right out of people without them even knowing. "boiling the frog" of our consciousness and interaction in ways we may not be able to see coming, down to the individual level. So many people are just plugged right in to this already. This AI seems to have coincided with a fantastic delivery method we all cant put down. Not all people of course. But I have been shocked in the past few years watching many people I know being unable to process the information coming at them in any critical manner.

As someone once said "There is a war for our attention, and we are losing". This will only get worse as AI gets better. AI is truly hacking our brains because its able to run billions of experiments a day on live subjects with nearly instantaneous feedback of its performance. Then data mining that feedback like never before, probing for evolutionary weaknesses and soft spots. Us older folks may not see it as much. But you better believe the brains of these youngsters are being affected in ways we don't yet understand. Its a grand experiment none of us signed up for.

https://youtu.be/GcRW83JQSaE

 

[Northern Spy]

Yuval Noah Harari books are "entertaining" at best. Provocative may be a better word. His books may fit the algorithm he speak of. Populist brain candy.

Sapiens was pretty much reductionist fluff. I can't get past his "animal of no consequence" concept.

Homo Deus remains on my bookshelf, partially read.

I just noticed that his books are next to the well researched and scholarly Jared Diamond collection. I should probably move them.

 

[Hippocampus]

Prior four posts give much to think about. Although totally politically incorrect and resulting in academic censure there was an editorial on the last page of Scientific American in the early 1980s which roughed my feathers.
A lady sociologist pointed out social democracy had created a genetic drift. The biologic quotient stipulates that the genetics of those individuals who live long enough to reproduce offspring that can reproduce will persist in a population. Where the genetics don’t allow that occurrence those genes with fall out of the gene pool. Throughout our history that was true as it is for other animals.
She said social programs since the 50-60s have not allowed that biologic quotient process to fully continue. Prior to effective social programs you had as many children who survived to reproduce that you could feed, house, and keep healthy. . That required intelligence or strength or some inherent ability to generate income. Just like pretty people marry pretty people so do intelligent people and fit peoples. Usually the same for healthy people.
She noted population studies suggested a developing inverse relationship whereby neither chronic disease nor limited academic performance nor strength nor fitness nor inherent ability decreased the number of offspring. Rather the reverse was occurring.
I’ve spent my life helping those with illness or cognitive limitations or genetic disorders. Try as I might can’t refute her observation. In clinic it doesn’t matter race, native language, religion or any other demographic. With few outliers her statement seems valid.
My clinic is way to small a N to draw any conclusions so tried to find papers with larger numbers and rigorously done. Was unable to do so.
So we get leaders who violate just about all of the Ten Commandments and run for president again. Or leaders not vested in cleaning up our own house as a major priority. Throughout science fiction there’s been a dystopian strain. With both AI and the current biotech revolution my concern is on a societal level some changes are irreversible. I’m not sanguine about either party nor congressional oversight. I’m not sanguine that the public realizes what’s at stake. Still think us non 1%ers need to make our voices heard. Don’t want my kids living in the matrix. With significant effort I left Facebook, twitter and use an off label search engine. There’s no software from China on any of my devices. In order for AI to manipulate your thinking it needs to know you. To the extent I can avoid it I have resisted those intrusions.

 

[Art]

Many great posts on this thread. Several hit nails on the head! Thank you each…

Things [best one-word definition I can muster] throughout AI [and other forms of new-age intelligences/robotics] are accelerating faster than the human race will soon be able to accommodate/handle.

Hundreds of video regarding AI’s super sonic physical robot-capabilities' increase rate and intelligences' advancement speeds are on the net… I believe bumpy economic and social rides are quickly approaching. Especially... if looney tune law makers allow the U.S. to default… this time. Economic panic will ensue. China will rush to fill the void. What's next is anyone's guess!

Best luck to all and to all good night!

This is included merely as a joke! Randy Newman Song: Randy Newman - Political Science (Let's Drop the Big One Now) - YouTube

 

[Barking Sands]

Yuval Noah Harari books are "entertaining" at best. Provocative may be a better word. His books may fit the algorithm he speak of. Populist brain candy.

Sapiens was pretty much reductionist fluff. I can't get past his "animal of no consequence" concept.

Homo Deus remains on my bookshelf, partially read.

I just noticed that his books are next to the well researched and scholarly Jared Diamond collection. I should probably move them.

So you dont care for him or his books. But did the words he spoke and the ideas formed in the clip have any truth to them? Do you disagree with those ideas because they were spoken by Mr Harari?

The clip of Mr Harari conveying these ideas was used not because he is any type of authority, but becase its recent and readily available and conveys an idea concisely in the form of a short clip. You can take your pick of scholarly types repeating essentially the same ideas.

 

[FWT]

As someone recently observed, once AI starts to get simple things like spell check right I'll start to get impressed.