Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[roddy]

Soo Valley
Here in BC they do not waste a test if the subject shows no symptoms because it appears they understand that false negatives are possible, so why bother.

Because of out low covid %positivity, case numbers and willing public cooperation with contact tracing we are able to track down everybody. Thus we only need to test persons who may have symptoms or closely connected with infectious persons, braking the chain of infection.
However increasing positivity numbers are straining contact tracing and at some stage we are going to loose this advantage.
Full lock down is needed to bring positivity rate less than 5% and case numbers to manageable numbers for contact tracing to be effective.
Canada re-opened too agreesivly. We must get covid numbers down before we loose control as US and several European countries have.
Sofar the backbone required is lacking in every province. Even here in BC Dr. Henry must be feeling the heat not to shut lower mainland down.
Testing is 2 weeks behind the virus.
We are driving the yacht from aft cockpit. Not a successful method of 'piloting' because 'conning' ahead is restricted leaving us with clear aft view.

 

[SteveK]

Roddy, BC lower mainland at least is on a 2 week lockdown as we speak. Added yesterday, no visitors to the lower mainland if you do not live there.

BTW, this past week 4 people I know went in for test and received reply negative within 36 hours. This is how we do it in BC

 

[JLD]

Politics is not necessary in your answer.

Feel free to read politics into my answer if you want to.

Bottom line, however, is that anyone who comes into close contact with the President receives a Covid-19 test. Passing a Covid-19 test, however, is not a 100% guarantee that you do not have Covid at the time of testing. Someone who was tested for Covid, but had a negative test result, passed the virus on to the President.

Jim

 

[firehoser75]

Since the original topic pertains to the cruise industry, I will give one last update regarding Royal Caribbean Lines.
I contacted them again today by phone requesting a refund for the 2 cruises that are not happening that were originally scheduled to leave Nov. 21 (2 cruises back to back). This after trying unsuccessfully at least 9 times (over several days) using their "contact us" form on their website. Each attempt ended with a message "unable to send now, try later"????? I suspect they don't want to hear from customers?

I even spoke to a "supervisor" today. The answer was the same, no refund at all, but I have a partial credit (not my full deposit) for a future cruise usable up until Dec. 31/21.

To me, not a great idea of what customer service should look like, especially during a time when they should be enticing both new and past customers to consider them when the situation with Covid improves!!
I informed them to enjoy my money, because it would be the last their company will ever see from me. I also informed them that I would be trying to inform other "potential" customers of my experience so that others may make informed decisions regarding Royal Caribbean Lines.
By the way, I could not find in their documentation anywhere where it states "no refunds" only credits. I am not interested in throwing good money after bad by consulting a lawyer. Buyer beware.

 

[ssobol]

...By the way, I could not find in their documentation anywhere where it states "no refunds" only credits. I am not interested in throwing good money after bad by consulting a lawyer. Buyer beware.

If you paid by credit card, perhaps there is some recourse there (e.g. service not delivered). However, you usually only have 45 days to file a claim.

 

[SteveK]

Tom,
You have just made a case for a class action suit. There will be others. I may be wrong but there may be lawyers that take on a class action for a percentage fee. Worth a call to a lawyer?.. You must not have read this.
https://www.royalcaribbean.com/content/dam/royal/resources/pdf/cruise-ticket-contract.pdf

Seems like it may be too late for ticket holders as the shareholders have already filed and will most likely bankrupt RC

 

[firehoser75]

Unfortunately for the credit card, the deposit was paid in late December 2019.
I am not interested in consulting a lawyer (starting a class action), but if I hear of a class action, I might consider joining?? However, if I read it correctly, the contract strictly prohibits any class action suits?

I did not see in the contract where the "refundable portion" of the deposit can only be used as a future credit. The fact that they changed their policy and would have retained a portion of the deposit "for their troubles" is bad enough, but keep the whole thing (giving a useless "future credit") is to me, the last straw. Personally, for me, once bitten, twice shy, so they will not ever get any additional money out of me, and therefore the credits will be unused no matter what happens with Covid.
End of my "rant".
Thanks for the suggestions and comments, they are appreciated.

 

[BruceK]

Tom, be sure you are looking at the Contract Terms at the time of contract. Cl.6(e)(i) looks clear enough as to a refund. Sounds like they are saying," well might it say "refund",we are not refunding, do what you like". Surely someone took them to arbitration, there must be a group of angry RCCL intending pax, Class Action or not it might be worth seeing if you can find and contact them.
Of course if RCCL is "belly up" financially, any victory could be Pyrrhic.
How about telling them you are considering taking the 2 cruises if they won`t refund, and see how they respond.

 

[roddy]

Cruise ships were having communicable disease outbreaks prior to covid-sars.
Covid-sars has brought this to potential customers attention.
The industry will adapt to whatever the lowest infectious disease standards passengers will accept, post covid.
Homo-sapiens have poor memories. Hopefully our post covid collective memory will improve.
Unfortunately cruise ship economics require having ships full of passengers.
Problems are: changing how ships can be catered, cleaned and sanitized between between voyages and passengers and crew are accommodation.
Permanent changes to address short falls will require redesign of ships public areas.

 

[roddy]

Feel free to read politics into my answer if you want to.

Bottom line, however, is that anyone who comes into close contact with the President receives a Covid-19 test. Passing a Covid-19 test, however, is not a 100% guarantee that you do not have Covid at the time of testing. Someone who was tested for Covid, but had a negative test result, passed the virus on to the President.

Jim

When contact traced in BC, you were exposed at potential event you are quarantined 14 days, period. You may also be instructed to be tested.

 

[Peter B]

Here in Oz, cruises around the Australian coast (only) are already about to recommence. Overseas cruises are further away - probably not until any wishing to go have had the vaccine - same for overseas flights we are told by the Quantas CEO.

Interesting to see how many folk have missed their cruising so badly they are rarin' to go a.s.a.p, and bugger the virus risk, they love it so much. One couple on TV news just last night said they had had 50 cruises in just three years, and were booked for 6 more this year when covid struck. How the heck do they do it - even if made of money..? Beats me...

 

[BruceK]

Having used a number of cruise lines we`re getting hammered with encouraging adverts from several, especially NCL and HAL. Cruise ships could be a health hazard even before Covid, and their ability to transfer infections between pax is well known via the "petri dish" effect.
Even if all pax and crew get vaccinated, and prove it, the question remains: vaccinated against what? As different strains develop and change, how would ships, and pax, even me, know what their pax are successfully vaccinated against. And how long do vaccinations last, against various strains, in various people. The length of time vaccinations are effective is uncertain, it may vary person to person, vaccine to vaccine.
Much as I`d like to go cruising again,but certainly not until everyone on board is at face value, vaccinated. Discouraging uncertainties still remain and I expect be reflected in the numbers signing up to go cruising again.

 

[Peter B]

That about sums the cruise conundrum up pretty well Bruce. All the same, I'm getting my passport renewed just in case...?

 

[Art]

That about sums the cruise conundrum up pretty well Bruce. All the same, I'm getting my passport renewed just in case...?

Guinee Pig: a subject of research, experimentation, or testing.

How many will volunteer? Importantly, how many will survive / how many will not?

 

[CaptTom]

How many will volunteer? Importantly, how many will survive / how many will not?

My gut tells me the passengers will come roaring back. Just a feeling I get that everyone is "done with" COVID restrictions and there's a huge pent-up demand.

Not saying they're right to feel that way. Just the vibe I'm getting.

How many will survive? The overwhelming majority. Frankly, the occasional fatality on a cruise ship is not a deterrent. Bad things can happen anywhere.

Once the majority are vaccinated, drastic isolation efforts will no longer be required.

Remember, the reason the deniers were wrong about this being "just like the flu" was because it was a novel virus humans hadn't experienced before. We've been dealing with it for over a year. Many people have developed natural immunity and many more are being vaccinated daily. This will recede into the background noise of common illnesses some day.

 

[JLD]

My wife and I have only been on only one cruise and that was 30 years on our honeymoon. It was on a ship that would seem downright small compared to most ships today.

Now that I'm closer to retirement, prior to the pandemic, we have entertained cruising again. However, we had been looking at medium size ships like Viking's ships (928 passengers) as we didn't want to deal with vast number of passengers on most of today's larger ships (3,000+ passengers).

Although at five years old it is a bit dated, I found this article on cruise ship passenger capacity. I think what makes it interesting is that it shows Cruise passenger-to-space ratio: the ship's "space ratio" (by definition) is the enclosed space (measured in ft3/cubic feet) per passenger.

We are definitely in the wait-and-see crowd, as I don't see us on a ship until at least 2023.

Jim

 

[Art]

My wife and I have only been on only one cruise and that was 30 years on our honeymoon. It was on a ship that would seem downright small compared to most ships today.

Now that I'm closer to retirement, prior to the pandemic, we have entertained cruising again. However, we had been looking at medium size ships like Viking's ships (928 passengers) as we didn't want to deal with vast number of passengers on most of today's larger ships (3,000+ passengers).

Although at five years old it is a bit dated, I found this article on cruise ship passenger capacity. I think what makes it interesting is that it shows Cruise passenger-to-space ratio: the ship's "space ratio" (by definition) is the enclosed space (measured in ft3/cubic feet) per passenger.

We are definitely in the wait-and-see crowd, as I don't see us on a ship until at least 2023.

Jim

Jim - Article you link in your post is quite interesting. 450+/- cruise ships listed. Wonder how many more there are... if much more at all?

Taking a wild guess at 2,000 [2K] average number of passengers per ship = 900,000 [900K] aboard at one time if all ships were loaded and out at one time. Then you could take average cost per passenger [another wild guess] $4,000 [$4K] = $3,600,000,000 [$3.6B]. And, let's say average number of cruises per year per ship [wild guessing again] is twenty [20] cruises... then the average annual revenue for entire cruise industry would = $72,000,000,000 [$72B].

Not to mention the $200 billion [or, maybe much more] dollar$ spent at ports of call... This is representative of just one portion of global economic conditions that have been floored by Covid-19 pandemic.

 

[CaptTom]

...we had been looking at medium size ships like Viking's ships (928 passengers) as we didn't want to deal with vast number of passengers on most of today's larger ships (3,000+ passengers)...

We haven't tried the mega-ships (3,000 pax) yet, but I can tell you our "trick" to surviving the 2,000+ pax ships:

We're contrarians.

First thing in the morning, everyone races to stake out a lounge chair in the sun. We don't.

All day, while most passengers are busy getting sunburns and skin cancer on deck, we have the run of the air-conditioned "indoor" spaces.

At night, when the rest all run to the bars, casinos and lounges, we can stroll the mostly empty decks and look at the stars.

When the crowds cram into buses for pre-arranged shore excursions, we sometimes just stroll over to the taxi stand and negotiate with a driver for a personal tour. Or wander around town on our own.

 

[Art]

We haven't tried the mega-ships (3,000 pax) yet, but I can tell you our "trick" to surviving the 2,000+ pax ships:

We're contrarians.

First thing in the morning, everyone races to stake out a lounge chair in the sun. We don't.

All day, while most passengers are busy getting sunburns and skin cancer on deck, we have the run of the air-conditioned "indoor" spaces.

At night, when the rest all run to the bars, casinos and lounges, we can stroll the mostly empty decks and look at the stars.

When the crowds cram into buses for pre-arranged shore excursions, we sometimes just stroll over to the taxi stand and negotiate with a driver for a personal tour. Or wander around town on our own.

A Maineiac... for sure!! LOL

https://www.teepublic.com/sticker/324008-maineiacs-unite?feed_sku=324008D16V

 

[Group9]

It's going to be a long time before I forget about those cruise ships being stranded out at sea with sick people and even dead bodies, and no one would let them in.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/as-cruise-ship-carrying-sick-and-dead-passengers-moves-toward-florida-governor-says-state-cant-take-them/ar-BB11USCd

 

[Hippocampus]

Personally not a cruise ship fan. Would be delighted if they all folded. Have a bias due to conversations with local people. This is my uninformed opinion.

In the islands only the cab drivers make a real living off them but the whole population underwrites the expense of the massive construction involved in berthing them. The construction is usually done using massive loans. My understanding is the Chinese gives the loans to the local government with the caveat that the Chinese get to do the construction. You see these prefab boxes that the Chinese workers live in as they do the construction so even for that local labor doesn’t benefit from the construction. Then the local government is beholden to the Chinese and you see other local construction such as hospitals being done by the Chinese as well.

The US has really missed the boat on this. We are so much closer to the Caribbean then China but you see virtually no American cars or motorcycles (Japanese used vehicles seem imported from Japan with Korean a close second. Of interest used cars cost a premium against new due to tax structure ) and construction done by the Chinese.

On the experiential level although there are more than enough obnoxious people in the resorts at least they do employ significant numbers of local residents and they use local restaurants.

The cruise ships make the rich richer but do little for the average local people. We only visit an area when the cruise ships aren’t in. Try hard to just avoid them altogether and given a choice would much rather go to islands/ports they don’t visit.

In summary the ships are self contained universes. Offer little or nothing to the locals as inhabitants go back to the cruise except for a rare meal. Tours are prearranged and benefit very few of the connected local population.

It was quite noticeable cruisers were treated quite differently than cruise ship passengers. Cruisers use local services-marinas, skilled labor, food markets and restaurants/bars. So we cost the locals nothing and leave dollars in their pockets. Over time made friends with multiple locals. Beyond skin color they told me they knew right away who was cruise ship and who were cruisers. Said somehow we look and act differently. Said they experienced these two groups differently so had preconceptions causing them to act differently toward them. More than one said you come to live with us for awhile. They come to visit.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
The ONLY cruise I've ever taken was a 5 day run down the Yangtze river. VERY interesting scenery and side-trip-wise. The experience "on board"...Not so much. Supposedly a 5* cruise. One night for dinner they served lasagna. LASAGNA! In the heart of China, no less.


We've had more fun and adventure in our travels getting away from the crowd by following Mr. CT's MO. Hire a local and get away from the tourist traps and crowds.


Edit: Mr. (Dr.) H. Chinese construction projects? Yup. The velvet invasion. Saw the same thing in San Jose, Costa Rica. Brand new football (soccer) stadium. Everything Chinese-Workers AND material.

 

[slowgoesit]

Personally not a cruise ship fan. Would be delighted if they all folded. Have a bias due to conversations with local people. This is my uninformed opinion.

More than one said you come to live with us for awhile. They come to visit.

Hippo, I didn't quote your entire post, but I especially liked the last line! Kind of sums up the difference, don't you think?

 

[JLD]

We've had more fun and adventure in our travels getting away from the crowd by following Mr. CT's MO. Hire a local and get away from the tourist traps and crowds.

I don't disagree, but I think sometimes one can't always travel like a local, depending on where they want to go unless they have buckets full of money, which we unfortunately don't have.

We love to travel and prefer a short term rental of house or condo over a hotel. We definitely don't like crowds and this is why the new mega cruise ships are not for us.

That said, there are some cruises that we would like to do:
- a Viking repositioning cruise from San Juan, PR, to Barcelona, Spain
- a small ship cruise up the inside passage to Alaska
- a river cruise on the Rhine
- a river cruise on the Nile

The Viking ships by far are the largest with 928 passengers. The other ships usually have 100 - 200 passengers.

Jim

 

[BandB]

As a businessman, I always try to feel for any businesses jeopardized and especially for the jobs involved. However, there are some industries I would be fine seeing them disappear. Cigarettes are one, as are all the electronic substitutes. Cruise lines are another.

Do I think cruise lines could be regulated in a manner to make them safe? Yes, it's possible, but it sure isn't going to happen.

 

[Peter B]

- a small ship cruise up the inside passage to Alaska
- a river cruise on the Rhine
- a river cruise on the Nile
Jim

This one I can personally warmly recommend.

 

[GFC]

Now that I'm closer to retirement, prior to the pandemic, we have entertained cruising again. However, we had been looking at medium size ships like Viking's ships (928 passengers) as we didn't want to deal with vast number of passengers on most of today's larger ships (3,000+ passengers).


Jim

Jim, we took a VIKING cruise on the VIKING HILD ship. IIRC it was 10 days on board and we were treated like royalty. Great meals, great service, the ship's workers were VERY accommodating and did their best to fulfill every request we made.

If you do that, when you get on board and are ready for your first meal, take a table outside on the bow. You get great views as opposed to being in the dining room with everyone else.

 

[Woodland Hills]

There is a story in the NYT about the voters of Key West being overruled by the Florida legislature when the voted to ban cruise ships.

It’s almost funny how “the best government is that closest to the people” gets tossed out when the big money gets annoyed.

I’ve been to lower Duval, the part within easy walking distance from the cruise ship dock and it is really a shithole of cheap tee shirts and overpriced crap snack food and drinks. None of the passengers will eat much ashore since their shipboard meals are already paid for, and of course none will stay in a hotel.

There are a small group of junk shop owners that are profiting while everyone else is suffering as the town has changed. Apparently the hotels and B&B’s are not getting the repeat business that they used to as people just don’t like what the town has become: a tourist clip joint full of boozy day trippers.

 

[AdkChris]

Jim - Article you link in your post is quite interesting. 450+/- cruise ships listed. Wonder how many more there are... if much more at all?

Taking a wild guess at 2,000 [2K] average number of passengers per ship = 900,000 [900K] aboard at one time if all ships were loaded and out at one time. Then you could take average cost per passenger [another wild guess] $4,000 [$4K] = $3,600,000,000 [$3.6B]. And, let's say average number of cruises per year per ship [wild guessing again] is twenty [20] cruises... then the average annual revenue for entire cruise industry would = $72,000,000,000 [$72B].

Not to mention the $200 billion [or, maybe much more] dollar$ spent at ports of call... This is representative of just one portion of global economic conditions that have been floored by Covid-19 pandemic.

I don't buy the premise that if people don't engage is some particular economic activity then that economic activity is lost to the whole economy. Sure the cruise lines didn't get any use out of the boats and the cruise workers lost wages while they transitioned to other work. (I do feel for the workers.) BUT the potential passengers spent their money on something else. Lots of industries, like home improvements and outdoor gear, are busy right now. Some experts make it sound like if you don't go on a cruise the only other thing to do with your money is burn it in the firepit. Bull.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
I don't think this has been mentioned although I'm NOT going to go through all 659 posts to check (apologies if it HAS been mentioned).

This is a solely a first world problem. Other than staff, who are most probably third world, a complete elimination of the cruise industry would really not effect anyone in the greater scheme of things.


Similar to how a transition from horse and buggy to automobiles put the livery stables and equine industry out of business.

As Mr. A mentions, cruiser $$ will be spent on other things, staff will find other employment and life will go on. I'm sure some in those small resort ports will breath a sigh of relief not having to deal with the hoards of "tourists".

Sure. A slowdown in the ship building industry but again, not many affected.