Can the Airlines Survive

[SteveK]

In Canada both major airlines have grounded flights and laid off thousands.
Airplanes are a compressed cruise ship in that a lot of people are crammed in a small area. I always wondered why I have a cold after a flight.

It turns out the newer planes recirculate the cabin air 50% mixed with fresh (for oxygen I guess) as it saves on fuel somehow, perhaps heating the air.

We now know social distancing suggests 6 feet or 2 meters, but one study found that air borne droplets can travel 13 feet, over 4 meters.
So before a covid infected sneeze goes through the hepa filter those around a 13 foot radius can be infected. approximately 2 dozen estimate.

I think planes will be grounded for a while and only the die hard travellers will resume flights within a year at least.

 

[Woodland Hills]

Yes they can. Airlines go in and out of bankruptcy constantly and the planes keep flying. The same will happen now, there will just be fewer planes in the sky when they return. Tickets will be more expensive though.

The planes will sit in storage until needed, but the real question is: will airliner manufacturing survive? Nobody will be buying new planes for a long time to come. Boeing is doomed, by the virus and by their own failures: incompetence and corruption.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

My daughter worked for Raven Air in Alaska as a flight attendant. Raven was the largest airline in Alaska. They fired everyone and filed for bankruptcy.

 

[Lou_tribal]

IATA announced that they foresee up to 70% or companies going bankrupted in the world by end of the year, so yes some will survive but not all.

L

 

[BandB]

IATA announced that they foresee up to 70% or companies going bankrupted in the world by end of the year, so yes some will survive but not all.

L

I think in number of companies, that's a reasonable number. The largest US airlines are going to get a lot of government aid. That's true in some other countries. I think we'll see the closure of perhaps 50% of all airlines, but they only carried 15% of the passengers. This will reduce competition going forward, increase prices ultimately.

Now I think some of the survivors will do it through bankruptcy. I also see threats to so many of their suppliers.

 

[BruceK]

We have 2 major airlines. Qantas and Virgin Australia. Both ceased international flights(except rescue missions)and heavily reduced domestic operations. Govt. is subsidising daily operations to keep flights operating. Qantas looks ok to hunker down for now.Virgin Australia, a debt laden near basket case pre Covid got no support from its 90% foreign owners, was rightly refused the $1.4B Govt bailout it sought and went into Voluntary Administration. It may come out and survive, slimmed down by a scheme where both the shareholders and creditors take a bath.

 

[syjos]

Even if airlines survive the virus without going under, passengers will not be rushing back to fly until a vaccine is released. There are several companies designing plexiglass shields to place between passengers on planes but they don't address the air circulation.

 

[Ken E.]

A friend is an Allegiant Airlines captain. Allegiant bought about 100 Airbus A319 and A320 aircraft in the last few years in a huge fleet upgrade. Lots of debt taken on. I asked him if, worst case, if they would be repo'd by the lender in a cash pinch. His comment was, 'who would want them?'.

 

[BandB]

A friend is an Allegiant Airlines captain. Allegiant bought about 100 Airbus A319 and A320 aircraft in the last few years in a huge fleet upgrade. Lots of debt taken on. I asked him if, worst case, if they would be repo'd by the lender in a cash pinch. His comment was, 'who would want them?'.

And who wants the new planes that were on order? Whether you call it the domino effect or the trickle down effect, going to be a lot of other parties hit hard and the suppliers to Boeing had already suffered greatly.

 

[SteveK]

737 Max not back into flight before most planes are grounded. Will Boeing survive.

Boeing's troubled 737 Max airplane will now remain grounded from passenger service until at least June or July, which is months later than the company had previously suggested. And that means airlines will likely cancel Max flights through the busy summer travel season.Jan 21, 2020

 

[Insequent]

Everyone is asking themselves: do I really need to fly? And that will become a consideration for quite a long time. I can see domestic flights having a re-bound in many countries, but international flights will have low demand for some time. Airlines with large long-haul fleets will have a lot of planes parked, and little chance of selling them. They will drown in debt.

It is likely that Australia will have a mandatory hotel quarantine for all arrivals until there is a vaccine according to our Chief Medical Officer earlier today. Soon that hotel stay will be at passenger expense also, I expect. So short business trips or vacations to Australia will not be feasible for some time, perhaps late 2021? Possible exceptions would be New Zealand or another country with similar low new case rates and a low number of active cases.

Another factor for would-be travellers is the question of health care in a foreign country should you contract covid19. You are unlikely to be able to get travel insurance coverage, and may even have difficulty in obtaining care if the local facilities are overloaded. Are you able to cover a couple of weeks in ICU on your own dime? So unless you have already recovered from covid19 and are immune, international travel has become something few thinking people will risk IMO.

 

[BruceK]

Everyone is asking themselves: do I really need to fly? And that will become a consideration for quite a long time..... international travel has become something few thinking people will risk IMO.

Good analysis Brian. It`s possible Australia and New Zealand may become destinations for each other, by air or maybe(deep breath)cruise ship. Many of us have done regular longhaul overseas trips and it`s hard to see that happening again soon. So it may be domestic trips, NZ trips, and soon I hope, recreational boating again. Without a vaccine, things will be different.

 

[Robster_in_edmonds]

Predictions for airlines

Great thread. I think the next three years will be brutal for the travel and vacation industries. Exotic vacations will just stop. Airlines will downsize, most will go bankrupt. Hotel chains will be hit hard. I can see Boeing spinning off their commercial operations and surviving on defense contracts. Businesses will see huge benefits of work at home. Videoconferencing will destroy current levels of business travel.

White collar jobs will drive change. More people working from home will drive many urbanites to the suburbs and homes with dedicated office space. Fewer new car purchases will impact car companies. Urban tax collections will drop and big cities will face tough decisions. Grab some popcorn when city governments need to downsize!

Many parents will be home schooling over the next few months. Overseeing school assignments, expect college-educated parents to become disenchanted with curriculum and pacing for smarter children. I could go on and on, it suffice it to say that the airlines are the canary in the coal mine.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

737 Max not back into flight before most planes are grounded. Will Boeing survive.

I think Boing went back to work a few days ago.

 

[BandB]

I think Boing went back to work a few days ago.

But then, doing what? Is anyone going to take delivery on new planes? Seems like they all have way more planes than they need.

 

[Screaming04]

As an air traffic controller with 31 years in, I doubt I’ll ever work a busy session again. As mentioned above, I agree, limited domestic travel within the year but international is pooched for two years... Cruise ships...5?

Boeing working again is a pr exercise.

 

[kthoennes]

Planes have been painfully uncomfortable and thoroughly disgusting petri dishes for many years. I'm among those who have almost no patience for this terrified global panic but imminent death or not, even in normal circumstances planes are disgusting. I've walked off some planes after a long flight and the trash left behind and the disgusting behavior of so many of the passengers is just revolting. The planes literally stink and often made me sick. (We also loved cruising, contrary to so many cruise line bashers on this forum, but there again, I think any cruise itinerary will be risky chaos long after the "curve" is lowered. One passenger hacks up a lung and hazmat troops will weld your cabin door shut for a month.) On both counts, even for formerly avid travelers like us, I think it's going to be a long time before the airlines or travel in general comes back to the previous volume, if ever.

 

[BandB]

Planes have been painfully uncomfortable and thoroughly disgusting petri dishes for many years. I'm among those who have almost no patience for this terrified global panic but imminent death or not, even in normal circumstances planes are disgusting. I've walked off some planes after a long flight and the trash left behind and the disgusting behavior of so many of the passengers is just revolting. The planes literally stink and often made me sick. (We also loved cruising, contrary to so many cruise line bashers on this forum, but there again, I think any cruise itinerary will be risky chaos long after the "curve" is lowered. One passenger hacks up a lung and hazmat troops will weld your cabin door shut for a month.) On both counts, even for formerly avid travelers like us, I think it's going to be a long time before the airlines or travel in general comes back to the previous volume, if ever.

I was not a fan before. I drive to NC from FLL to avoid them. Now, I don't know what it will take for me to ever get on a commercial airliner again. Ironically, my last long distance travel before this crisis was to and from Italy and we chose to use a charter plane for both trips.

I've never been on a cruise ship and never will be. On an airplane you're a prisoner for a few hours. On a cruise ship it's days or weeks.

 

[SteveK]

We have a flight booked in June that probably will not be used now. Other than that we have explored places we wanted to see by plane travel. Boating and road trips will work.

 

[BruceK]

2 airports, Perth and Adelaide, have put liens on and locked in Virgin Aust planes, for $16M and $10M respectively.
Today were were leaving on a cruise to Hawaii....
Travel will be different. We liked our longhauls to Europe up the sharp end. No Europe no big ship cruising. But there`s boating, when we are allowed.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

As an air traffic controller with 31 years in, I doubt I’ll ever work a busy session again. As mentioned above, I agree, limited domestic travel within the year but international is pooched for two years... Cruise ships...5?

Boeing working again is a pr exercise.

My son is ATC in Anchorage. He handles everything at 22,000 ft and above.

 

[Screaming04]

My son is ATC in Anchorage. He handles everything at 22,000 ft and above.

Cool! I’m an approach controller 16k and below. The people that your son talks to in Vancouver center work directly behind me.

 

[FF]

The hassle for air lines is the massive debt to purchase a plane, as the interest needs to be paid , grounded or flying.

The air circulation can be easily increased with the flick of a switch at some fuel cost.

The problem is the back of the aircraft (the roach coach) folks pay most of the flight expenses , and any profit comes from the business and first class folks.

Weather the high paying folks will switch to chartering is a big fear.

 

[Knot Fast]

Recent airline experience

My family members’ necessary recent flights have consistently been superior flying experiences.

The USA airlines are cleaning their planes to a level never before seen in their industry. Long overdue. Passenger loads were <10% and on all 6 segments (3 trips), there was never less than 2 rows between passengers. Boarding passes had 2 seats listed: yours and the empty one assigned next to you. They got on and off the plane quickly and without violating social distancing. Airports were similarly over-cleaned and under filled.

I think I feel better about airline travel now than I will in a few months, when planes may become more crowded. Also, when my family must fly, we are using all the Airline Miles we can. We are unsecured creditors with respect to airline mile balances and the service commitment they represent. Use ‘em or loose ‘em.

 

[BandB]

My family members’ necessary recent flights have consistently been superior flying experiences.

The USA airlines are cleaning their planes to a level never before seen in their industry. Long overdue. Passenger loads were <10% and on all 6 segments (3 trips), there was never less than 2 rows between passengers. Boarding passes had 2 seats listed: yours and the empty one assigned next to you. They got on and off the plane quickly and without violating social distancing. Airports were similarly over-cleaned and under filled.

I think I feel better about airline travel now than I will in a few months, when planes may become more crowded. Also, when my family must fly, we are using all the Airline Miles we can. We are unsecured creditors with respect to airline mile balances and the service commitment they represent. Use ‘em or loose ‘em.

Would you have been willing to have paid perhaps 6 or 7 times the price of a ticket to fly on those flights as that's what the cost was. Essentially you had a charter flight on a much larger plane than you needed.

 

[ssobol]

Airlines will survive, no question. In the world today, air travel is a necessity and there is no going back to the days before airlines. Who's going to travel 7 days to get from the US to the UK (ship). Or 3-4 days to get from NY to LA (train). Not going to happen.

Will any given airline survive? Some will and some won't. But for every one that folds, two will be trying to take its place.

At one time airlines were money makers and there was the whole glamour of flying thing. But now they are essentially common carriers (although they are don't like to be called that) with all the glamour of taking a bus.

Want to make a million $ in the airline business? Start with a billion $.

 

[Yahoo 1]

.... The USA airlines are cleaning their planes to a level never before seen in their industry. Long overdue. Passenger loads were <10% and on all 6 segments (3 trips), there was never less than 2 rows between passengers. Boarding passes had 2 seats listed: yours and the empty one assigned next to you. They got on and off the plane quickly and without violating social distancing. Airports were similarly over-cleaned and under filled....

Interesting post of a situation that is no longer tenable for any airline. Air travel has dropped by more than 95% at a time what is normally the beginning of the most lucrative time of year. The 3 major US airlines have started flying cargo-only flights.

 

[Lou_tribal]

Interesting post of a situation that is no longer tenable for any airline. Air travel has dropped by more than 95% at a time what is normally the beginning of the most lucrative time of year. The 3 major US airlines have started flying cargo-only flights.

This is fantastic! We will return back to the great times of great boats crossing oceans!!! Trawlers will rules, future is bright for all of us

L

 

[Woodland Hills]

Airlines will survive, no question. In the world today, air travel is a necessity and there is no going back to the days before airlines. Who's going to travel 7 days to get from the US to the UK (ship). Or 3-4 days to get from NY to LA (train). Not going to happen.

Will any given airline survive? Some will and some won't. But for every one that folds, two will be trying to take its place.

At one time airlines were money makers and there was the whole glamour of flying thing. But now they are essentially common carriers (although they are don't like to be called that) with all the glamour of taking a bus.

Want to make a million $ in the airline business? Start with a billion $.

You have to ask why people would travel?

Businesses have gotten accustomed to virtual meetings now and are too cheap to go back to face-to-face, especially in a world of much more expensive flights. That removes the financial support for most airlines right there, this means every other ticket will have to double in price at a minimum.

If lockdowns continue off and on worldwide for the next several years who wants to be a tourist? If there is no vaccine for years, a very good bet, then cafes and restaurants will be closed, museums will have limits on visitors to maintain physical distancing and the crashed economy will make pleasure traveling too expensive for all but the 1%. Why fly to Europe or Asia if you can’t appreciate any of the local culture there except from a sealed bubble?

If there is no vaccine and only a short term immunity for survivors, who would want to mingle with strangers or be in crowds if it meant getting COVID19 for the second or third time?

 

[RT Firefly]