Hurricane Irma

[DHeckrotte]

"That "before" picture, by the way, is a total PhotoShop creation."

Oh, ye of little faith! Have a look at the drawing below, showing the mooring scheme. Google for images; there are several from various vantage points. There are images from other years showing similar line-ups. Paraquita Lagoon, Tortola

[kev_rm]

Originally Posted by Sailor of Fortune

Local is very wrong. I just took 20'draft up Savannah river 18 miles from Jetties. Container berths (ships ) are 20 miles up. Not sure above container docks but I bet it is a wonderful hurricane hole.

Actually I'm the one that was wrong on the distances. Local said pt wentworth which is where the ship traffic goes as far as.

In any case... it doesn't make sense for me.

[cardude01]

I can't figure out what the white model is on this map. Am I blind?

https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...cal-storm-irma

Edit:

Wait I see it. It's some U.K. Model. For some reason weatherunderground will not display the EU model, which has been the most accurate allegedly. My Windy app uses the EU model and it has Irma hitting the Keys and moving up the east coast of FL.

I know I shouldn't focus so much on these individual models with the storm still this far away (margin of error 4 days out is 175 miles), but I'm just geeking out on all this stuff right now.

[hmason]

Check out the videos taken from a hurricane hunter aircraft flying into Irma.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters Fly Into Eye of Cat 5 Hurricane Irma – gCaptain

[cardude01]

Originally Posted by hmason

Check out the videos taken from a hurricane hunter aircraft flying into Irma.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters Fly Into Eye of Cat 5 Hurricane Irma – gCaptain

Wow. I suppose that's fairly safe since they do it all the time, but it sure looks sketchy to me.

What's the reason for a prop instead of a regular jet?

Is the guy sitting in the middle working the throttles? Sure seems like a lot of throttle movement, but I'm obviously not a pilot.

[micksbuddy]

Originally Posted by Bruce B

Interesting to hear this. I have a favorite webcam located in Key West at Sloppy Joes. Here is a link... Live Duval Street

I've been checking in all morning and every time I look I see people and or vehicles. I know that I'd be out of there!
Bruce

For Key West, that looks pretty close to deserted. Seems as though people have cleared out, aside from a few stragglers.

[Gabe n Em]

Originally Posted by kev_rm

Actually I'm the one that was wrong on the distances. Local said pt wentworth which is where the ship traffic goes as far as.

In any case... it doesn't make sense for me.

Theres just "navigable mud" for the small boats above port wentworth. And PW isn't a good place for us small guys anyway, all the big boys will be crowded in there playing bumper boats.

There's no good rivers to crawl up around here (savannah) unfortunately. I'd go up the ogeechee but the bridges keep you from getting where you need to go.

we're tied up at the marina with extra fenders, extra lines. I'm just worried about all that surge. Over 7 or 8 feet, there's no telling what will happen....

please go east! veer east!!

[BandB]

Originally Posted by McGillicuddy

My best friend is in serious condition in a Savannah hospital. He had a life saving operation last Friday and I was with him until I had to leave to come down to St Pete to take care of my boat which is also my home. My prayers to all in the path of Irma and especially to patients in hospitals in the direct path. I lived through Katrina and remember well the death toll in the hospitals that did not evacuate and decided to 'shelter in place'.

I don't know which hospital in Savannah or it's location, but it differs a bit from Katrina in that in Katrina the entire area was subject to surge. With Irma, it's the coastal area that is being evacuated while any hospital that's inland should be in better position. Key West Hospitals are evacuating. Fort Lauderdale hospitals are not in evacuation zones.

Now, I still understand the fear and if I was his family and he could be moved I'm sure I'd want it. We spoke to a family in Houston whose father had just had a double lung transplant. Recovery means high dosages of immunosuppressants and very weakened immune systems. He had just returned home and the doctors quickly moved him into a hospital and then had him evacuated to Dallas.

In addition to what the rest of us face, those hospitalized, with chronic conditions, in nursing homes, immobile, requiring treatment like dialysis or on oxygen face far more issues. We just checked on an 84 year old friend here. She has many friends in assisted living.

Your post is a great reminder to think of all those.

[healhustler]

Originally Posted by cardude01

Wow. I suppose that's fairly safe since they do it all the time, but it sure looks sketchy to me.

What's the reason for a prop instead of a regular jet?

Is the guy sitting in the middle working the throttles? Sure seems like a lot of throttle movement, but I'm obviously not a pilot.

They are Allison Turboprops. God bless 'em, they may be the best storm engine ever accidentally discovered. Plane is the ole P-3 Orion, whose passenger airframe was once the infamous Lockeed Electra I believe. Had a few problems with those but the Orion just keeps on cranking.

Thanks for bringing up a plasant distraction from this constant worry of Irma.

[High Wire]

Coming to YachtWorld soon.

[FF]

The P3 can take the loads because as new passenger planes the wings fell off , so the entire structure was beefed enough to stay together in flight..

Sadly this added weight so the aircraft was no longer useful as a people mover.

The senator from GA came to the rescue by having the US Navy purchase the aircraft to use as patrol units.

Sadly the stiff wing structure gave a crappy stiff ride , but it was OK as a patrol aircraft.

In a thunderstorm gusts can go up and down at 3,000 to 5,000 fpm.

The pilots will attempt to maintain a constant air speed that is chosen by the mfg to keep the aircraft together.

To maintain a constant air speed the difference between going up 3000fpm and down 3,000fpm requires constant throttle adjustment.

"The guy in the middle" is the plane captain , the enlisted person who maintains the aircraft and enlisted crew.

P3's can take it but the ride is rough .

[David Hughes]

Originally Posted by cardude01

What's the reason for a prop instead of a regular jet?

I'm guessing props don't care as much about plowing through huge amounts of rain, whereas jet engines might choke on it?

[BandB]

Obviously we don't know yet where or at what force the hurricane will hit. Interesting looking at the various models in that they now vary greatly from West of Key West to East to further East. So they have it cutting through the state, just onshore, just offshore, and further offshore. All obviously have different impact. However, further out, where less reliable, they all have it much the same even cutting through western NC, Eastern TN, KY, W VA. Now obviously at much less force by then.

We've found it interesting looking at our area specifically on forecasts such as Windy. We know not definitive but interesting.

Not surprisingly that the ECMWF and GFS differ significantly in speed and direction based on where they have the eye of the hurricane ECMWF has the 74 knots as it has the eye crossing just west of us between 1100 and 1200 on Sunday. GFS has it passing well East of us between 0900 and 1100 on Sunday and winds at 78 knots. GFS does have 103 knot winds hitting Freeport.

Now, I think this is significant in noting while we keep hearing 175 mph winds (152 knots) by the time it reaches the mainland and especially as it passes over land, they'll be significantly less. Still they're strong enough to worry about but we will not receive the winds that have been seen in the Caribbean. Maximum wind speed when it reaches Key West now shown at 145 mph and by the time it reached northern Florida 100-120 mph.

Also what you receive at your location might be very different than 20 miles from you.

As a note, building code for Key West (of course a lot of homes there built before these codes) is 160 mph, Miami is 150 mph and Fort Lauderdale is 140 mph.

Same with Storm Surge. The current models show 15-20' in the Bahamas, but only 5-10' (worst case scenario) in the Keys and Miami and less than 6' in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm.

Since this is a boating site, if you want to go boating off the coast of Fort Lauderdale, Seas today are 1'. Tomorrow afternoon they reach 5'. Saturday afternoon late 18-21'. Sunday morning 34-41'. Sunday night 15'. Monday 6-8' and Tuesday 2'.

Main thing we all know is to follow it even more closely as it gets nearer to us and all the models could be wrong.

[cardude01]

BandB

Yeah it's interesting, looking at the Windy app, with it set to the EU model which is the worst path for me, the highest wind I get at my location near LaBelle is 36kn. That's Sunday at 1600 hours.

Does that seem right??

[cardude01]

Originally Posted by FF

The P3 can take the loads because as new passenger planes the wings fell off , so the entire structure was beefed enough to stay together in flight..

Sadly this added weight so the aircraft was no longer useful as a people mover.

The senator from GA came to the rescue by having the US Navy purchase the aircraft to use as patrol units.

Sadly the stiff wing structure gave a crappy stiff ride , but it was OK as a patrol aircraft.

In a thunderstorm gusts can go up and down at 3,000 to 5,000 fpm.

The pilots will attempt to maintain a constant air speed that is chosen by the mfg to keep the aircraft together.

To maintain a constant air speed the difference between going up 3000fpm and down 3,000fpm requires constant throttle adjustment.

"The guy in the middle" is the plane captain , the enlisted person who maintains the aircraft and enlisted crew.

P3's can take it but the ride is rough .

Very interesting history. Thanks for the clarification on the Captain handling the throttles. Seems like a very active flying experience.

[sbu22]

Cardude - they're old enough (around 40 years) that they still carry a Flight Engineer to "run" the mechanicals. That center seat is a dedicated crew position. I imagine it's a struggle to maintain the required flight profile with wild wind variance thay must encounter.

There is virtually nothing "automatic" on those birds. I never saw a Navy P3 that wasn't hand flown throughout - the autopilot (so the crews told me) almost never worked and if it was "up" nobody trusted it.

Not a Navy aviator - just a frequent hitchhiker with VP-94.

[BandB]

Originally Posted by cardude01

BandB

Yeah it's interesting, looking at the Windy app, with it set to the EU model which is the worst path for me, the highest wind I get at my location near LaBelle is 36kn. That's Sunday at 1600 hours.

Does that seem right??

Attachment 68358

On that path, yes. However, to see potential worse case you might move around the range of the hurricane to see what you'd have if it went to the west of that path shown. Then you'll probably see closer to the 75 knots we see. So, perhaps possible for LaBelle to see 75 knots or even more, but more likely less than 50 knots.

I'm not trying to diminish the danger or say those in the keys or on Miami Beach shouldn't evacuate because of potential surge. Just saying the likelihood for most of us when it comes to wind is tropical storm level.

[BandB]

Wifey B: There is a parade almost of boats headed from South Florida to Cancun right now. We think of escaping to the north and yet many are escaping to the southwest.

A good bit of boat traffic still on the ICW and some getting towed up the New River. The beach looks so strange to see the water calm, beach beautiful and no people. Well, except we did see one area with one group swimming and one group set up under a beach umbrella.

Not much traffic. I think everyone is in the grocery stores or at Home Depot and Lowe's. Not even as much traffic on the highways as I expected and that's good for those evacuating or it's bad because people aren't yet. Because not so much traffic here I even looked on the traffic cams from the Keys through Miami and surprisingly not jammed.

[pxl1210]

Hi all,

I have really enjoyed following the discussion here on this thread over the past few days, thanks for all the knowledgeable input. I have spent a lot of time on the water back and forth between the Bahamas, FL and northeast but this is the first time having the boat in FL for hurricane season, so I've never been through this before. Long story short, in May we were cruising back from Green Turtle cay making a straight run for west palm and hit something unmarked about ~40 mi from west end on the north side of Grand Bahama. Tore off the stabilizer, separated the twin disk from the block and damaged the running gear. We limped in to west end to assess the damage and proceeded to west palm to get hauled out a few days later when the gulf stream calmed down.

Anyways... a 6 week repair time turned in to 8 weeks and now we're at 16 weeks and counting.. Which brings me to the Irma discussion, we're sitting on the hard in an area which according to the noaa chart, shouldn't be affected by surge in any category storm, but with the possibility of wind speeds being well over 100mph, i suspect there's a good possibility of the boats blowing over? Not to mention the hazard of having so many boats packed in, if one goes i suspect it's gonna take a few with it. I am not a physicist but have run some numbers best i can and the amount of force generated by those kinds of winds is pretty mind blowing. We have topped off all the tanks and are planning on adding some ballast in the bilge. Luckily we have some 100ft+ steel yacht to port, but a large sailboat who doesn't appear to be unstepping their mast to starboard. We are positioned bow facing southwest. Please point me in the direction of any existing threads on this or if you could provide me with any tips, past experiences or 'do's and dont's' it would be very appreciative.

Many thanks and keep the commentary coming. Good luck to everyone and god bless.

Thanks,
Pete

[cardude01]

Pete,

Others more knowledgeable will chime in with hurricane info, but I was wondering about the object you hit. In July I crossed from West Palm/Lake Worth to Memory Rock.

Was the object near Memory Rock? I don't have my charts near me so can't remember what's 40 miles north of West End.