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Old 05-25-2022, 10:11 AM   #1
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Generator Lead Time

So I received this today from an inquiry I made a while back.



Good Morning Thomas,



Thank you for your email inquiry. Unfortunately, lead times on Onan generator sets are awful right now. In a normal setting, we stock these units in Seattle, however we currently have nothing in stock available and lead time to get them from the factory is over a year right now. We use Kubota engines in these Onan’s and Kubota cannot supply us with engines for these for almost a year. Sorry to disappoint. Let me know if any questions. Thank you







Mike Fourtner

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Cummins Sales & Service

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Old 05-25-2022, 10:31 AM   #2
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Our 9KW Onan has been down for a month due to a salt water intake connection part failure. Local dealer couldn't source and was trying to get one from Belgium with no joy. $90 part. I called around and Cummins in PA had it.
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Old 05-25-2022, 02:07 PM   #3
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I’m on the wait list too. They are correct - one year is a good guess.
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Old 05-25-2022, 04:38 PM   #4
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I believe the same slow downs and closures we've seen on autos and motorcycles are ahead for boat builders. Boat builders do have longer lead times and may have some protection and they also have priority, but I still see stoppages ahead. If not one thing, it will be something else. I have a friend who had an outboard on order. He was tole it would be delayed until July. It's already in to the dealer. However, the steering kit is backordered so can't install it. It only takes one part at one point of the chain. New announcements daily. Today the big one was Toyota announcing rolling pauses.
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Old 05-25-2022, 04:59 PM   #5
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Tom, I think the Mike Fourtner who responded to you was on the TV show Deadliest Catch, on the boat Time Bandit. If you have anymore contact with him, ask him if he's the same Mike.
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Old 05-25-2022, 05:50 PM   #6
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Thats about right. We are getting gen sets in this year we ordered last year.
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Old 05-25-2022, 06:25 PM   #7
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Tom, I think the Mike Fourtner who responded to you was on the TV show Deadliest Catch, on the boat Time Bandit. If you have anymore contact with him, ask him if he's the same Mike.
I remember him well. Tough men on those boats. My brother did it for 1 season, and that was enough. Anyone who eats crab should be required to watch at least one episode to see what these guys go through to get it.
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:19 PM   #8
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Just wow. Dealers can't sell gear they can't source. Installers can't install gear that can't be obtained.

Boating from marina to marina because you need a generator if on the hook is a different kind of game changer.

I have to say I really believed various forces in play would have the supply chain situation improving this summer, not getting worse.
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:06 PM   #9
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Just wow. Dealers can't sell gear they can't source. Installers can't install gear that can't be obtained.

Boating from marina to marina because you need a generator if on the hook is a different kind of game changer.

I have to say I really believed various forces in play would have the supply chain situation improving this summer, not getting worse.
Onan generators depend on parts from Shanghai. Those parts have been repeatedly delayed and will continue to be.

Supply chain problems aren't universal in nature, but each one has a different cause. We are a global economy even if we sometimes try to deny it. That means a lot of things have to go right at the same time. Odds of that happening aren't great. I like control of as much of my product as possible but always aspects managed by others. The next response is to build protection against others failing to meet needs. Years ago, my largest supplier always ran late. I allowed for it in scheduling and I planned if I needed to pick up another two weeks I could fly goods. We do the same today and have still flown goods from Italy and Vietnam this year. Still we have sewing machines down because the US manufacturing location can't get assemblies from Japan because they're waiting for parts from China. Fortunately, we don't depend on perfection so simply slid standby machines into the line.
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Old 05-26-2022, 06:55 AM   #10
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B&B:

Short term disruption is one thing. Protracted is another.

Do you have any sense of when this mess eases up?
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Old 05-26-2022, 07:26 AM   #11
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Do you have any sense of when this mess eases up?
I'm almost afraid to hear the answer to that. A precipitous drop in demand would do it. And to the best of my own ability to read economic tea leaves, that seems like a distinct possibility here shortly. If so, it won't be pretty.

A longer term solution might be a general re-structuring of supply chains and business practices. Things like keeping more inventory and diversifying sources. In other words, the exact opposite of the ideas which got us into this mess in the first place.
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Old 05-26-2022, 08:13 AM   #12
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I'm almost afraid to hear the answer to that. A precipitous drop in demand would do it. And to the best of my own ability to read economic tea leaves, that seems like a distinct possibility here shortly. If so, it won't be pretty..
More than a possibility, it is the intent. It's why the Fed is raising interest rates - to decrease demand.

I don't understand all the "hurumphing" on threads like these. Raising interest rates is the proven antidote to high inflation. We've known that in practice since Paul Volcker led the Fed 45-years ago. At a micro-level, it may be difficult to pinpoint exact timing and response, especially since there are some other major influences obscuring the data (supply chain, Ukraine, China lockdown) so no way to know if hard landing of soft. But at the macro level, this isn't that difficult to see. Demand will decrease. Inventories will increase. Companies will decrease investments including hiring. Prices will moderate. The exact mix is impossible to know. But the overall effect is fairly predictable at a macro level

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Old 05-26-2022, 09:34 AM   #13
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More than a possibility, it is the intent. It's why the Fed is raising interest rates - to decrease demand.

I don't understand all the "hurumphing" on threads like these. Raising interest rates is the proven antidote to high inflation. We've known that in practice since Paul Volcker led the Fed 45-years ago. At a micro-level, it may be difficult to pinpoint exact timing and response, especially since there are some other major influences obscuring the data (supply chain, Ukraine, China lockdown) so no way to know if hard landing of soft. But at the macro level, this isn't that difficult to see. Demand will decrease. Inventories will increase. Companies will decrease investments including hiring. Prices will moderate. The exact mix is impossible to know. But the overall effect is fairly predictable at a macro level

Peter
It appears to me only one person on this thread is "hurumphing". The rest of us are just stating a supply chain bottleneck we are experiencing. Everyone has, from refrigerators to cars.

A couple hundred years ago most people had to hunt for their food for several days at a time. Now we get irritated if our dinner is delivered from the restaurant kitchen in <23 minutes. We are in instant gratification society.

There are no nefarious forces at play here. First a pandemic, then over stimulation by the Fed who were doing their best to stimulate the economy but went too far in hind sight. Demand of goods became greater than supply.

Russia invades Ukraine and takes a large percentage of the worlds gas and oil off the market so fuel prices rise. This hurts the working poor the most, so no one needs to get their violin out for boat owners who want to fuel their vessels.

China goes to 0 covid lockdown a few months ago further exacerbating the supply chain.

The Fed is finally on QT and will raise rates to continue to damper demand, but the stock and bond markets are doing that for them in some regard.

No boogey men involved, just life. We will also survive and have our generators soon enough.
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Old 05-26-2022, 11:00 AM   #14
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The view from here:
In past years, I had NEVER seen Container Ships at anchor in English Bay or the Gulf Islands until the last couple of years. There are 18 anchorages in EB and 33(+-) in the GI. Recently, ( last 2-3 yrs) the GI have been filled periodically. Last weekend I did the crossing both ways, to get my haulout in Vancouver. Roughly 50% of the occupied anchorages are presently Container Ships, including some up to 1200' long, not the absolute largest out there, but getting up there. My count of unloading facilities roughly equals the number of anchored Container Ships. Think about that extra delay and its impact on supply,
The rest of the ships are bulk, so waiting for grain, coal, etc, outgoing. For them, the delay issues are at the other end.
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Old 05-26-2022, 11:45 AM   #15
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Usually you dance through ships in NYC if you’re forced to cross the lanes and the anchorage is full. We left sandy hook then crossed to the Brooklyn side to avoid most of the ferry traffic. Lower bay was empty. Three ships at anchor and no container ships were seen. No shipping to dodge. Similarly in L.I. Sound there’s usually some barge traffic. Both there and Delaware it was extremely light. Made for a pleasant trip but think that reflects the general state of affairs. Don’t need a bear market to see what’s going on. Hope this is market correction and not evolving stagflation.
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Old 05-26-2022, 02:17 PM   #16
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We bought a Honda portable which will suffice until we can get ours fixed. May not be ideal for larger boats but is a bandaid.

Supply chain issues are going to take some time to ease. Plus many long haul truck drivers left the business or stayed local during COVID which put a strain on shipping. Also read that in last few years the railroads shed 35000 folks.

Just in time inventory practices worked well when the whole system functioned now not so much.
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Old 05-26-2022, 02:49 PM   #17
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B&B:

Short term disruption is one thing. Protracted is another.

Do you have any sense of when this mess eases up?
I don't think any time soon. I think some businesses will resolve it and others will not. What I see way too much of is "It's not my fault." So whose fault? The customers? Is it their fault for ordering?

I'd ask these questions of Cummins. Pandemic and shut downs started over 2 years ago, did you never contemplate problems or perhaps the need for alternative suppliers?

As of today, they haven't taken steps to resolve things. Dometic is a major disaster impacting many boat owners.

Now blaming inflation, next will be economy in terms of receding. What scares me is the aggressiveness I see in business, buying of companies, stealing executives from competitors, way too much "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead."

I think disarray will be with us for at least 2 to 3 more years. Keep in mind, Covid is far from over, much less economic impacts.
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Old 05-26-2022, 03:02 PM   #18
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The challenge with finding new suppliers is that those folks too had shutdowns, lack of resources etc. got to believe some items require precision tools which are unavailable. I feel we are 2-3 years away before we see a return to the new normal.

I feel for the end service provider as this hurts their business and reputation.
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Old 05-26-2022, 03:58 PM   #19
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The challenge with finding new suppliers is that those folks too had shutdowns, lack of resources etc. got to believe some items require precision tools which are unavailable. I feel we are 2-3 years away before we see a return to the new normal.

I feel for the end service provider as this hurts their business and reputation.
Don't feel too bad. Some sold two years worth in a year. May be too late to make other arrangements now, but wasn't two years ago.

Part of supply chain management is having alternate resources.
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Old 05-26-2022, 04:44 PM   #20
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I don't think any time soon. I think some businesses will resolve it and others will not. What I see way too much of is "It's not my fault." So whose fault? The customers? Is it their fault for ordering?

I'd ask these questions of Cummins. Pandemic and shut downs started over 2 years ago, did you never contemplate problems or perhaps the need for alternative suppliers?

As of today, they haven't taken steps to resolve things. Dometic is a major disaster impacting many boat owners.

Now blaming inflation, next will be economy in terms of receding. What scares me is the aggressiveness I see in business, buying of companies, stealing executives from competitors, way too much "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead."

I think disarray will be with us for at least 2 to 3 more years. Keep in mind, Covid is far from over, much less economic impacts.
Thanks

Good points.

The source of my question is, US covid shutdowns are behind us.

We still have some things that have zip to do with covid.

I read covid in Shanghai has abated and they are getting back to work.

So wondering if you had seen any relief yet, and apparently not.
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