Dorian aims for East Coast of Florida

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BandB said:
The track forecast has now moved closer to SC and NC. In fact, it crosses the path Matthew took and by the time it reaches the line between the two states it is now well inside the Matthew path.
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I saw that too. And if it doesn't change much from 325 it will be inland as well.

They say that there is a strong trough forming that is going to push it north and then north east starting late tonight.

We will see.
 
boathealer said:
This is probably the most sickening and heartbreaking video I have ever viewed....


http://video.foxnews.com/v/6083157728001
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The big building at the start of the video is the lumber yard, what remains of Price Right is there too. That main drag you see with the teal buildings is is Don McCay Blvd. We walked two thirds the length of that street just this past May looking for a 24v start relay for one of our engines.

It is so startling to see streets that you have walked, bars and restaurants that you have frequented, and marinas that you have tied up to for the past twenty years - and struggle to recognize them.
 
I don't see hardly any electric poles still up in the videos. Its going to take months to just pile up the debris in designated areas so vehicles can get around. Then the electric grid and water. They will have to set up tent cities for the workers. This is going to be a long process.
 
Sniff, last year's video of Abaco. Didn't do any of this year's as it just a few days at the end of an extensive Southern Bahamas cruise. If anything would make me tie one on, this would. Damn.

 
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cardude01 said:
I have not, but was traveling today. Will search around tonight I little bit.

If anyone has any info on GTC let me know.
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Nothing so far. Not even seeing any video, which may not be anything as I am not seeing anything from Treasure or Guyana either, and minimal from Hope Town.
 
I have heard, and I am trying to confirm it, that the 60 foot high sand dunes in the area of Nipper's have washed away as has Nippers. There is now a channel cut across Guyana into the Sea of Abaco. If true this means Guyana has been cut in two.
 
menzies said:
I have heard, and I am trying to confirm it, that the 60 foot high sand dunes in the area of Nipper's have washed away as has Nippers. There is now a channel cut across Guyana into the Sea of Abaco. If true this means Guyana has been cut in two.
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I also heard that Nippers was destroyed and the dune was damaged, but didn’t hear about a channel cut through.

My only real hope for GTC and the boat is that the storm made a hard turn to the west right before GTC, so the eye did not seem to go right over GTC like it did for Marsh, Elbow, Guana and Man O War. Probably wishful thinking, but maybe it’s not as bad?

However, the little info coming out GTC seems to be on the line of “all destroyed”, so my (mostly fake) optimism is probably misplaced.
 
menzies said:
....Abacos was never a destination for cruise ships...
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In the early to mid 90's Premier Cruise Lines had one ship that went to Great Guanna and sent passengers to Green Turtle and Marsh Harbor. I worked for Premier and absolutely fell in love with the Abacos. I never got to see the other islands as I was always working on Great Guanna, but it never really seemed like work.
 

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Benthic2 said:
In the early to mid 90's Premier Cruise Lines had one ship that went to Great Guanna and sent passengers to Green Turtle and Marsh Harbor. I worked for Premier and absolutely fell in love with the Abacos. I never got to see the other islands as I was always working on Great Guanna, but it never really seemed like work.
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That is the one I mentioned. Big Red Boat wasn't it? They put down big steel markers from Whale Cay Channel to the anchorage, still there today. They build a destination right on Baker's Bay. But the NE wind rages through the channel meant they had to abandon many of their cruises and eventually they gave up. We visited their site for the first time in 2002 and it had all the kitchens, pirate ship, playground and cruise ship paraphernalia still there. It was like walking through a ghost town.

Now all that has been ripped away and the multi-millionaire's playground of Bakers Bay Golf and Ocean Club has been built there. I am sure there is lots of damage there as well.
 
Very cool! Nice work if you can get it. [emoji6]
 
10pm update. Still at 325. It needs to start turning. 325 is not good for NE Florida and SE Georgia.

At the last update two hours ago they said it was east of Cape Canaveral, now they are saying it is east of Melbourne, which is south of the Cape. Seems some forecasters need a geography lesson - unless of course it is going back south! :)

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
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Menzies....I wasn't familar with the name Baker's Bay. Many of the cruises did get diverted to Nassau, and once they sold that ship, their other ships were too big to get in there. I remember one very windy night we had 2 tugboats pushing us all night long to take the strain off the moorings! The reefs on the other side of the island were spectacular for snorkeling and diving!!
 
Benthic2 said:
Menzies....I wasn't familar with the name Baker's Bay. Many of the cruises did get diverted to Nassau, and once they sold that ship, their other ships were too big to get in there. I remember one very windy night we had 2 tugboats pushing us all night long to take the strain off the moorings! The reefs on the other side of the island were spectacular for snorkeling and diving!!
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Yes, that reef is pretty spectacular - those are the ones you can see off Nippers when up there (or could before Nippers was just destroyed). I read once that those were part of the third largest reef system in the world. Though since then I have heard a few other reef systems make the same claim!
 
menzies said:
10pm update. Still at 325. It needs to start turning. 325 is not good for NE Florida and SE Georgia.

At the last update two hours ago they said it was east of Cape Canaveral, now they are saying it is east of Melbourne, which is south of the Cape. Seems some forecasters need a geography lesson - unless of course it is going back south! :)

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
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Looks like that puts it around 120 miles off of Cocoa Beach ? Compared to last report, it looks like it moved about 8 or 9 miles north for every mile or 2 west.
 
bobbyp said:
Looks like that puts it around 120 miles off of Melbourne/Cocoa Beach ?
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But at a course of 325 (NW) it puts it in at the JAX/GA border. They say not, the high ridge will push it out. The 11pm update will be important.
 
YES!! It moved! 340 degrees. JAX looks OK but unfortunately they are now saying possibly over land SC and NC.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 79.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday.
 
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menzies said:
YES!! It moved! 340 degrees. JAX looks OK but unfortunately they are now saying possibly over land SC and NC.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 79.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday.
Click to expand...

I have to say, thank you for the updates you are doing.
 
Really looking ugly for the Carolinas now. I am hoping it turns away but sounds like it's going to be dangerously close.

Current Myrtle Beach forecast. Tomorrow night, 2.5 in rain, 41 mph winds, 63 mph gusts.
Thursday, 2.5 in rain, 55 mph winds, 78 mph gusts.
Thursday night, 0.99 in rain, 37 mph winds, 58 mph gusts.

Hatteras, Thursday 2.0 in rain, 29 mph winds, 54 mph gusts.
Thursday night, 2.0 in rain, 62 mph winds, 98 mph gusts.
Friday, 1.4 in rain, 36 mph winds, 66 mph gusts.
 
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5am Advisory/6am Update. Thing has moved back to 330. Needs to start turning another 30 degrees in the next 12 hours for us here. Right now, though the center of the cone shows it still just off land when it gets to the Carolinas, but the worse case (left side of the cone is overland). And its a much narrower cone - meaning higher probability of accuracy.

Cat 2 now.

We got some bands around 3:30 this morning, but pretty quiet now.

It is also going to arrive in the Carolinas in the middle of the night which is always really horrible.

LOCATION...29.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

Dorian is moving slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, or
330/7 kt. There is basically no change to the track forecast
reasoning. Over the next day or so, the hurricane is forecast to
gradually turn toward the north as it moves through a break in the
subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Dorian should accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward on the southern side of a
broad mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track remains
close to the corrected multi-model consensus.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and
life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Latest wind probabilities:

For us here near Mayport:

MAYPORT NS FL 34 85 85% chamce of at least 34 kts
MAYPORT NS FL 50 12 12% chance of at least 50 kts
MAYPORT NS FL 64 1 1% chance of at least 64 kts

Others including Carolinas:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/040855.shtml?
 
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Just shows that even with all the computer hardware and human resources we have today we still only have a general idea of where a hurricane is going to go. Certainly a strong reason to leave if you possibly can.
Still hoping for the turn to the northeast as soon as possible to keep it a fair distance from communities.

Daytona Beach web cam with Dorian ~90 miles offshore:
https://www.volusia.org/news/daytona.stml
 
Steve91T - Do you keep your boat on Lake Norman, or on the coast?
 
Good luck Menzies and all in the path. Luckily the storms intensity has decreased. We had nothing except a breezy light rain day, never lost power or suffered any damage. Wish you all do even better.
 
Nothing much changed on the 8am update, still going 330. Eye has broadened meaning less intense.

It still looks like it has the Carolinas in it's sight, here's wishing it turns east.

One addition to this update, and maybe indicating that it is more west than thought over the past couple of days, is that they are now issuing surge and wind warnings for Hampton Roads and the lower Chesapeake!


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers


TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD
 
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Still heading 330.

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/JAX_loop.gif?1604c915609a78a34d2c326d46addf0a

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
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