PM story on a sunken GB in Hopetown

[psneeld]

Calling the bridges or State DOT might give a better heads up, but now needs to be part of the plan


Much of the ACIW the bridges have signs stating 35mph winds and no opening, but I forget what they say about state of emergency.... plus they may be able to work a deal for a couple times openings a day

 

[jimisbell]

Calling the bridges or State DOT might give a better heads up, but now needs to be part of the plan

No, if NE is the only way to go then I leave by car. NE is toward population density AND more evacuees on the road. Better go straight inland and leave the boat to the insurance company. My boat is a luxury, my life is a necessity.

 

[dhrowe]

A big gotcha is 2nd order ignorance. Stuff you don’t know that you don’t know.

If you know you don’t know something, and it’s important to you, like better anchoring technique - you can learn about it.

2nd order stuff is you don’t know about it. So you can’t try to educate yourself. Like hurricane bridge closures are WAY early in the SE. I get why because there are lots of bridges and it would be really dangerous if they wait to the last minute. I actually got caught by them securing a lift bridge days before the storm was supposed to get here, in the car on the way to check on the boat.

 

[psneeld]

That's why picking apart ideas and decisions is a worthwhile exercise here.


Learning from a knowledge and experience base that's greater than one's own.


So you can learn/get exposure to second order stuff.....and possible ways to mitigate those hazards.


So research well beyond any one source is a good idea.

 

[dhays]

A big gotcha is 2nd order ignorance. Stuff you don’t know that you don’t know.

If you know you don’t know something, and it’s important to you, like better anchoring technique - you can learn about it.

2nd order stuff is you don’t know about it. So you can’t try to educate yourself. Like hurricane bridge closures are WAY early in the SE. I get why because there are lots of bridges and it would be really dangerous if they wait to the last minute. I actually got caught by them securing a lift bridge days before the storm was supposed to get here, in the car on the way to check on the boat.

Excellent point. Thanks.


One of the values of TF discussions is that I learn that there is a lot that I don't know.

 

[Bigsfish]

Dave I have you beat, I know far less than you. A mentor of mine once said you will never know what you don’t know, he’s correct.

 

[Group9]

At least, have a plan, ahead of time. You will have enough to do when a hurricane is heading your way, without having to figure out what to do, from zero.

 

[Bigsfish]

Anyone in the military, operations field, will tell you to have a plan A, B, C plus. Let me put it another way. I’m sure you have taken vacations and have planned that vacation in advanced, so has it ever turned out as planned? That’s why backup plans are important.

 

[psneeld]

Come on Irv...


Eisenhower had it right...well this was close... "Plans are worthless, but planning is everything."

you know that from our get togethers....a plan tells you to have X amount of rum on board....planning tells you that you better carry more...

 

[Bigsfish]

LMAO. Very true. I knew some “officer” would correct my analogy. I’ll bring more rum this year, I hope the boat floats.

 

[jimisbell]

I have two plans, Plan A and Plan B. Plan A is what I am GOING to do. Plan B is "Dont screw up Plan A"

 

[Group9]

And a two part youtube video of a couple guys that took their boat out of harms way

These guys were prepared to go to Cuba if necessary to get away from the storm.

Yep. Confucius say: "Man saying something cannot be done, should not get in way of man doing it."

 

[ranger58sb]

Reading the thread made me think back to previous years...

When we were living in south Florida, we started learning about hurricanes with Georges in '98, and then we had Harvey and Irene in '99 (both right over our house...)

Then back here on the Chesapeake, we've been affected by Isabelle (2003), Ivan ('04) and maybe another one or two that year (Jeanne? Gaston?), Hanna ('08), another Irene ('09), and Sandy ('12)...

We kept our then-boat in our own slip for Isabelle; that was a one-off due to the odd nature of our slip at the time (24' wide). Then we moved the current boat for the second Irene and for Sandy, both moves to docks better suited for high winds and especially surge.

The best thing I can say about our decisions, after the fact, is that they worked. They also seemed logical, and like good, maybe even best, choices at the time.

I still can't say they were the best decisions possible, though. I'm still doing after-action analysis one each one... trying to identify why they worked, what might have been better...

We have a general plan, with lots of IF/THEN branches... and I can pretty much identify the "why" behind each of those sub-plans (essentially a sub-plan A, B, C, D, etc.)...

And almost all of our plans are intended to be in place no later than 3 days before arrival.

With all fingers crossed, wood having been seriously knocked on, etc.

FWIW, after-action analyses everyone has posted helps me fine-tune my own thinking for our future planning...

-Chris

 

[Seevee]

i was really surprised and saddened to see comments like this (and the insurance-as-a-way-out comment). There is so much to learn about tragedy - as the saying goes, those who ignore history are bound to repeat it. Rather than take the approach of "i'd never do that," maybe a bit of humility "gee, sure seems like he's been around the block - might even have more experience than i do. Wonder why he did what he did?"

i thank the owner for sharing his story. It's a sobering reality. Not bragging, but i have over 25,000 offshore miles on power boats, though in vastly different waters (the pacific coast - past delivery skipper transitioning to cruising). I'd love to know his thinking along the way and the decisions he made. We in the bleachers see it as one big decision. in my experience, tragedies are a daisy chain of small decisions that lull you into a chain of events that may not have an exit.

very true!

 

[Seevee]

This is as true as it gets. I am also a pilot, and Old Wise Pilot. I often say, "The difference between an Old Wise Pilot and a Young Dead pilot is just the luck of the draw....AND some opportune training that didnt seem important at the time."


Old Wise pilots have made ALL the mistakes that killed the Young Dead pilots. just ONCE. The difference was that the survivors became Old Wise Pilots. The survivors were survivors because of one insignificant (at the time) learning event. In my case, learning to fly from a crop duster who learned to fly from Orville Wright and learning to turn on a dime to dust the next row.....or as I actually used it, to escape a box canyon in the fog with my family in a Cessna 170B. One of several insignificant saviors that saved me from a flat spin, VFR on top, take off overloaded at altitude.......and the list goes on....just once.


As I said earlier, we escaped Harvey by 10 hours just because my wife coughed. I heard that cough on Friday morning as she got up and decided that two weeks without a hospital was to much risk and we left.......by car. Had we stayed, she would have died without a hospital.

Jim,


Respectfully I could strongly argue against this line of thinking.


Luck should not not be a part of flying (or boating).


We train to learn self preservation and a way to operate safety. Sometimes the learning comes from the mistakes of others, so we will not make the same mistake.


The BEST safety device on a plane is a TRAINED PILOT, and could argue the same on a boat.


Pilots have Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) so they have predefined how they will operate. What they will do and not do. And not fly into a box canyon without planning for an escape prior before it's too late. I would hope that your planning kept you on the upwind side and had the performance to make a 180 or out climb it if needed.... glad you survived!


====


So, how about some SOPs for hurricane operations? There's a ton of info out there on hurricanes and what they might do. We could have a plan of attack long before one hits. Perhaps as conservative as "if a depression shows up 500 miles out with any westerly track, we will bail out" ..... which might mean we just don't go there in the fall.


My SOP in the Tampa/St Pete area is if a cat one looks like it will hit, we will fly out... no matter what, unless it's clear that it's approaching from the east (no surge) and the likely hood of a tropical storm. With Irma we flew 900 miles away, as the storm tried to chase us. The boat has a reasonable hurricane hole where it might survive a Cat 3, and will stay put. To slow to out run even with a few weeks advance notice, and our lives are more important.



So, what are YOUR hurricane SOPs?

 

[Seevee]

The wildcard for ICW boaters is the early closing of bridges due to evacuation orders. You could get trapped in a bad spot.



No telling what might happen. For Dorian, they had already issued evacuation orders for South Carolina and the storm hadn't left the Bahamas yet. Can't say that closed bridges, but if it did, it might have screwed my plans had a bridge been ordered closed that early

This is one thing I just don't understand! Why the hell do they close bridges? Here, they raise them up! Stupid! They're stronger when down, and how about that last guy who just couldn't get out or the guy to had to pick up his friend on the island now can't get back.



A real pet peeve of mine. Time for a town hall meeting.

 

[psneeld]

Me, I would rather have them up to allow boat traffic....especially when one of the low draws or swings is right next to a high rise bridge. That allows both street and waterway traffic to flow whenever.


I just know from experience that about 3 days is when you have to be serious about stay or flee in a boat. But every cane is a little different depending on so much...both for the cane and you.


Thus the expressions that sound like ....no matter who said them...plans are archaic the moment you finish one, planning is invaluable if it is ongoing and fluid as it educates you on possibilities.

 

[Seevee]

Me, I would rather have them up to allow boat traffic....especially when one of the low draws or swings is right next to a high rise bridge. That allows both street and waterway traffic to flow whenever.


I just know from experience that about 3 days is when you have to be serious about stay or flee in a boat. But every cane is a little different depending on so much...both for the cane and you.


Thus the expressions that sound like ....no matter who said them...plans are archaic the moment you finish one, planning is invaluable if it is ongoing and fluid as it educates you on possibilities.

Paul,


Good point. That would not be an issue here... for the most part, but could be elsewhere. Our city fathers close the bridges (actually open them) to stop traffic about 24 hours out and the weather is already a bit iffy for boating. But even closed, all out bridges are 20' here which wouldn't affect more trawlers.

 

[jimisbell]

Jim,
Respectfully I could strongly argue against this line of thinking.
Luck should not not be a part of flying (or boating).

Yes, and NO. BUT, you cannot take LUCK out of the event. Things happen without being predictable. Maybe you would like to take LUCK out of the equation, but Murphy will put it back in.

We can be as prepared as possible, but a Rogue Wave is LUCK.

I know one pilot that died in a crash that was NOT predictable and could NOT be prepared for. He is dead because of LUCK, wrong place at the wrong time.
Yes, we need to prepare but you cannot prepare for a properly installed AND inspected part failing, in a way that will bring the event to a tragic end.

 

[psneeld]

Luck can substitute for training and experience...but... the more of those and "less luck" is required to become an old anything.

 

[jimisbell]

Luck can substitute for training and experience...but... the more of those and "less luck" is required to become an old anything.

I am NOT arguing that LUCK is a substitute for training and experience. I AM arguing that LUCK (or whatever you wish to call it, Divine intervention....etc.) can cancel ALL the training and experience you have. a broken part that was made correctly and installed correctly and inspected correctly several times and then broke unpredictably in a way that made the aircraft nose down at 50 feet above the threshold, is LUCK.
As an engineer that designed things for the military we were painfully aware that Murpy would reach up and cancel ALL planning And ALL experience, when you least expected it.
Yes, you can plan for almost everything, but some things just cant AND shouldnt be planned for because the effort is more than the risk.

 

[psneeld]

That's not what I was implying either...but if one factors in "bad luck" involving probable fatality in every evolution...why do anything?


A very few bad luck things may be fatal...but many are not BECAUSE of experience and training.....just hope you have either or both when those instances come. If flying or boating was that risky....well not hard to figure out.



The chances of one part failing and causing a chain of events or the swiss cheese model allowing a sngular event to become catastrophic is usually so remote...most of us DON'T plan on those things.


THAT's why Operational Risk Management (ORM) was developed...to try to mitigate or eliminate as many dangers as humanly possible and continue the process from there. Thus allowing people to do just about anything as safely as possible...it includes the weighing of experience/training to overcome "luck" meaning they have a much greater chance of success despite something serious going wrong.



Fortunately boating has less severe outcomes in many ways than aviation...and so few are fatal with only ONE component failing, one erroneous action or even one unforeseeable event that many boaters boat their whole lives wand stink at it yet have fun, happy and safe boating existences.

 

[jimisbell]

From my own experience:
I was going out to practice aerobatics., in particular, precision spins. I went to the ready room to ask my instructor to join me. He said he didnt want to and had other things to do. I didnt feel comfortable doing something new without him but he argued that I had the training and could handle it and he didnt really like spins anyway. I persisted untill he finally, reluctantly, agreed to go.

At 3000 feet I pulled up into a vertical climb until the aircraft stalled, cut the throttle, and then hit hard left rudder and she broke over the top and into a left hand spin, just as "planed", (experience was in the back seat, he learned fly in 1912 from Orville Wright, was an instructor in both world wars and at 60 years of age was still dusting crops). After two turns I attempted to leave the spin on a heading of north. I put the stick forward and hit hard right rudder. NOTHING HAPPENED! We were still spinning. I felt his hands on the controls and let go. He then applied full throttle (something you should never do in a stall because it tends to pull the plane apart) and the spin broke with a ripple running down the wing from left to right. We leveled out at 500 feet. He asked me over my shoulder, "were you scared?" I responded, "No because you were in the back seat" He then said "If you knew what I was thinking, you would have been scared". That plane should have recovered from a spin if you just let go of everything. You should not have to fly it out.

Back at the airport we debriefed and checked the plane. Someone (to this day unknown) had tightened up all the wing struts, pulling much of the dihedrial out of the wing making it very unstable. It was not something you would see on a preflight inspection.
I asked him about applying full throttle in a spin which he had cautioned me against. "Why", I asked. "Because I could see the whites of the eyes of the cattle in that field and I had to try something."
LUCK, first that he had the experience to know what might help when all else failed. LUCK, that I insisted that he go along and didnt leave all that experience on the ground. LUCK, that it didnt tear the wings off as it probably should have. and Luck that someone, thinking they were doing the right thing, had sabotaged the plane.
I am a LUCKY Old Wise pilot.

 

[psneeld]

Sounds to me like the "operator" saved the day because of experience....the "engineer" had the answer (don't apply power) and waited for death.


Sorta like the argument about moving the boat in the face of a cane or not.



Saw it my whole career.


I also had the privileged with flying with some of the best pilots on the planet ....tho not trained by a bicycle mechanic....who routinely took aircraft out in conditions and on missions never designed to and brought their crews back safely.


Luck? you bet...but many things that could not have been done by many pilots, these guys managed to get done and make it look easy.

 

[jimisbell]

Sounds to me like the "operator" saved the day because of experience....the "engineer" had the answer (don't apply power) and waited for death.

Well, not quite.....LOL. I had the controls but not the answer, in fact had been warned NOT to do it. But I was not waiting for death either. I had full confidence in Norris and wasnt even worried, I just handed it over to him to "fix". He was the one that was worried....because of all his experience. I was too ignorant to be worried....only 12 hours time under my belt.

 

[psneeld]

Well, not quite.....LOL. I had the controls but not the answer, in fact had been warned NOT to do it. But I was not waiting for death either. I had full confidence in Norris and wasnt even worried, I just handed it over to him to "fix". He was the one that was worried....because of all his experience. I was too ignorant to be worried....only 12 hours time under my belt.

Exactly my whole point about experience/training and luck.


A 12 hr boat owner probably isn't experienced to have a good hurricane plan and what it takes to keep the risk management cycle going throught. Sure....if lucky almost any plan will work...but we both know that's when running versus battening down and trusting insurance IS probably the safe answer...for that cane. Unless you are lucky enough to have access to an experience captain to assist.


Every cane, whether anywhere near or not, should be a learning experience for most boaters. What would they do every day if they were in the forecast zone? or not do? When would those decisions become critical?


It's like learning options investing in the market...you use "play money" and develop a strategy that works most of the time before you do it for keeps.

 

[jimisbell]

"Me, I would rather have them up to allow boat traffic....especially when one of the low draws or swings is right next to a high rise bridge. That allows both street and waterway traffic to flow whenever."


One of the problems here is not vehicle trafic, its river locks that are open to allow the water to drain into the gulf but closed momentarily to allow boat trafic to cross. Not sure if you could keep the river locked in for long or if you would really want to.

 

[jimisbell]

"It's like learning options investing in the market...you use "play money" and develop a strategy that works most of the time before you do it for keeps."


I hope it works better.....LOL.....though I love Iron Condors..... Real estate lets me sleep better.

 

[sunchaser]

Of course there is the obvious question, as posed several times earlier in this thread. Why leave one's vessel in the "islands" during hurricane season to begin with? Which is the same question insurance carriers raise with ever increasing frequency.

 

[Bigsfish]

Jim. It just wasn’t your time to die. Luck maybe but a friend of mine use to say that luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Your teacher had the preparation and you provided the opportunity.