Dorian aims for East Coast of Florida

[OldDan1943]

09/02, 6pm, supposed to be off shore and directly E of West Palm Beach, according to My Radar app for Iphone. It does not say how far off shore.

 

[Mako]

Why is it that when I use PredictWind and other sites online that is shows wind speeds of no more than about 50 knots?

 

[Steve91T]

Why is it that when I use PredictWind and other sites online that is shows wind speeds of no more than about 50 knots?

Where? That is the forecast for the majority of the east coast.

 

[Steve91T]

Sorry steve91t, that frame and canvas are going to be gone even in heavy tropical storm conditions.

After the current Bahamas reports we're just hoping for the best.

I know. We are hopeful that we’ll get lucky and that be the only damage.

 

[menzies]

09/02, 6pm, supposed to be off shore and directly E of West Palm Beach, according to My Radar app for Iphone. It does not say how far off shore.

That has been the forecast for quite a while now - it is going to sit over Old Bahama Bay for a day before curving north west and then north and then north east - hopefully that bend is sharp to the NE.

 

[Lou_tribal]

I have no experience is battling against an hurricane and don't seek to have one so bare with me...
I just came across this news article:

https://globalnews.ca/news/5844566/florida-boat-residents-hurricane-dorian/

I understand the sentimental link with your boat especially when it is called home.
But at the same time I think sometimes it may be a bit just like unconsciousness when I read someone saying it is just about packing food and add lines when needed... With wind reaching 300kph, adding a line is not even an option as you would fly like a leaf if you get out.

L

 

[boathealer]

Stolen from Facebook....LOL.

 

[menzies]

I have no experience is battling against an hurricane and don't seek to have one so bare with me...
I just came across this news article:

https://globalnews.ca/news/5844566/florida-boat-residents-hurricane-dorian/

I understand the sentimental link with your boat especially when it is called home.
But at the same time I think sometimes it may be a bit just like unconsciousness when I read someone saying it is just about packing food and add lines when needed... With wind reaching 300kph, adding a line is not even an option as you would fly like a leaf if you get out.

L

One of the many (including saving lives) reasons authorities order a mandatory evacuation is to let people know that once the storm hits they will NOT be sending their emergency personnel into harms way to save those who chose to ignore the evacuation order.

Unfortunately what many who chose to stay believe is that they will still come to their rescue if they made a dumb stupid decision.

They won't. It's a lesson that sometimes can only be learned once.

 

[mvweebles]

11pm ET from NHC. Currently 180 mph sustained and moving westward 6mph

 

[Mako]

Where? That is the forecast for the majority of the east coast.

From Windy on my iPhone just now:

 

[OldDan1943]

Stolen from Facebook....LOL.

Now that chart/diagram is funny.

 

[FF]

6 AM Monday , still no sign of a turn to the North, fingers crossed.

 

[O C Diver]

I have no experience is battling against an hurricane and don't seek to have one so bare with me...
I just came across this news article:

https://globalnews.ca/news/5844566/florida-boat-residents-hurricane-dorian/

I understand the sentimental link with your boat especially when it is called home.
But at the same time I think sometimes it may be a bit just like unconsciousness when I read someone saying it is just about packing food and add lines when needed... With wind reaching 300kph, adding a line is not even an option as you would fly like a leaf if you get out.

L

I don't know where I would draw the line, but I understand it. It's easy to criticize someone for staying on their boat when a hurricane is coming toward them, yet we will tell people how adventurous they are when they sail across the ocean. While the person crossing the ocean isn't intentionally staying in front of a storm, the possibility is very real with no place to run and no place to hide. I find it odd that we applaud one and criticize the other. To the couple who are staying on the sailboat, the couple crossing the ocean, and the couple living on the North shore of Alaska in the winter, I wish you all the best of luck!

Ted

 

[menzies]

The system steering it west has "collapsed" so it is now "moving" at 1kt - right over Grand Bahama. And still a Cat 5.

Next update in 30 minutes.

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a
standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion
of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the
hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed.
Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the
ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to
move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness.
Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric
trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous
one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although
the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the
Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to
deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.

 

[psneeld]

The marina I am at is in a mandatory evacuation area that went into effect yesterday.


It's at the SC/NC border!


Hope I can get back to the boat and prep it a little better before I leave ahead of the storm.


The governments are really taking these storms seriously.

 

[menzies]

I have a boating friend who has a 49 DF and a 63 Hatt just up the road from you at Wrightville Beach. So double the trouble for him.

 

[mvweebles]

0800 NHC for Dorian. 165 mph winds moving westward 1 mph

 

[OldDan1943]

6 AM Monday , still no sign of a turn to the North, fingers crossed.

and ground speed of 1 mph

 

[cardude01]

First damage report I’ve see from one of the Abaco out islands, and it looks pretty bad. This is Hope Town on Elbow Cay.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1168496568837824513

Still waiting on a report from GTC, specifically the shipyard on Black Sound. I did get one report (unconfirmed) on twitter that another owner with a boat hauled in the shipyard has been monitoring the boat’s position electronically. I think they left their spot type satellite communicator on and they said the boat had not moved. But I don’t know how accurate those things are.

 

[Bud]

Just a reminder of how things change with those forecast models. About two days before it hit "Hurricane Irma" was tracking to hit Miami area and east key Largo. When we evacuated, we went to a friends house in Fort Myers. They changed the forecast the next day to say it was going over the keys and up the west coast. We packed up and went to the east coast and stayed in a hotel in Hollywood. We stayed there a week before they let us back into the keys. That being said, there was less agreement with the models for Irma (the euro model was correct) and probably other differencies to.
Good luck to all

Bud

 

[menzies]

First damage report I’ve see from one of the Abaco out islands, and it looks pretty bad. This is Hope Town on Elbow Cay.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1168496568837824513

The comments on that video are just plain ignorant.

Good luck with the boat.

 

[cardude01]

The comments on that video are just plain ignorant.



Good luck with the boat.

Yeah, twitter comments are generally terrible.

Thanks for the thoughts. Hope everyone on GTC is OK. The south end of Elbow got hit hard from what I’m hearing. Seaspray marina is reported “gone”, and Hopetown Harbour Lodge has collapsed allegedly. There were lots of boats left in the Hopetown mooring field so will be interesting to see how they made it.

Also was reported that Nippers on Guana is completely gone.

 

[rgano]

I can really feel for them. Looks JUST like my neighborhood last October!

My backyard.

 

[dhays]

I did get one report (unconfirmed) on twitter that another owner with a boat hauled in the shipyard has been monitoring the boat’s position electronically. I think they left their spot type satellite communicator on and they said the boat had not moved. But I don’t know how accurate those things are.

They are normally extremely accurate. It just depends on the level of accuracy of the satellites.

 

[BandB]

The marina I am at is in a mandatory evacuation area that went into effect yesterday.


It's at the SC/NC border!


Hope I can get back to the boat and prep it a little better before I leave ahead of the storm.


The governments are really taking these storms seriously.

SC and NC are still reeling from Matthew and Florence. Surge worrisome, but rain and flooding of more potential damage in many areas than wind and storm.

 

[Bigsfish]

The video from Hope Town was of some homes but many storage shacks built of plywood and no foundation to store stuff. If you have been to Nippers I’m not surprised it would be lost, and open bar and one enclosed building where they cooked. So far I have only heard of one death and that was at Sandy Point far south from the center of the storm, I don’t have details of that but I have a good friend that lives there, Bruce Lightbourne and hope he is OK.

Authorities always try to factor in the very worst for their predictions and most storms never reach that potential.

 

[caltexflanc]

SC and NC are still reeling from Matthew and Florence. Surge worrisome, but rain and flooding of more potential damage in many areas than wind and storm.

Yes, many people outside of the state don't realize that some of the communities most affected by hurricanes the past few years are far inland. Places like Lumberton/Fayetteville NC, and Kinston NC. Hurricane Joaquin played a supporting role in the historic floods in Columbia SC back in the fall of '15.

 

[BandB]

Yes, many people outside of the state don't realize that some of the communities most affected by hurricanes the past few years are far inland. Places like Lumberton/Fayetteville NC, and Kinston NC. Hurricane Joaquin played a supporting role in the historic floods in Columbia SC back in the fall of '15.

Although the floods were actually from other storms and not from Joaquin. The rivers through NC and SC are still the same risk and the ones at risk are not just those on the coasts, as you point out. We're talking areas more impacted by the total rain. We were in NC and SC at that time. Had to wait to drive back to the coast from Charlotte.

For those not as familiar with the states, NC consists of three very distinctive sections over it's width of 500 miles, from mountains to piedmont to low lands. SC is Piedmont and low lands. For the areas up to 100-125 miles from the coasts, you have a lot of low-lying areas and rivers and tributaries. The grounds in many of these areas are still very wet and haven't fully returned to normal.

 

[menzies]

They threw in a 1:00 update - we have a wobble. But they bloody didn't say which way the wobble is!!!


000
WTNT65 KNHC 021657
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN WOBBLING NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 190 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.

 

[geoleo]

They threw in a 1:00 update - we have a wobble. But they bloody didn't say which way the wobble is!!!


000
WTNT65 KNHC 021657
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN WOBBLING NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 190 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.

Wobble to WNW ! YEAH