What will the market do?
- Thread starter soin2la
- Start date
The friendliest place on the web for anyone who enjoys boating.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
- Status
tiltrider1
Guru
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2017
- Messages
- 4,361
- Location
- Pacific North West
- Vessel Name
- AZZURRA
- Vessel Make
- Ocean Alexander 54
The market will go up, then down, then back up. It is a bit foolish to predict the market for the short run and you can pretty much be assured it will go up in the long run.
I see a 15% market correction showing up in the next 4 months but I expect it to be short lived. However, I don’t believe the market will travel as a whole. Certain segments are going to continue upward were others will head down. I expect a lot of trading volume as investors run from technology to value and back.
REITs have taken a real beating in 2020, as the vaccine news gets better look for that segment to rise. Look for some serious volatility in technology with some massive winners and losers. Look at Splunk, missed its growth target and dropped 25% in one day. On the other hand expect OKTA with its facial recognition security software to continue to rise.
Then there is the influence of the Fed, the President, trade disputes, wars and natural disasters. All that could completely change my opinion over night.
I see no pressure to push energy prices up, or interest rates up, this suggests that the market should continue upwards. P/E ratios are high so I’m not expecting the end of 2021 to be much higher than now.
In the end it will be more about what you own than were the market is going. The S&P is up 30% from one year ago. My stocks are up 75% for that same time period(all my stock purchases are on record on my Facebook page).
Is it time to take some money off the table? Well if you are 60 or older I would say yes. Last January my 85 year old father took 90% of his money off the table. Sure he missed a good year but it doesn’t matter he now has all the money he will ever need. A 55 year old who plans to work for the next 15 years should stay in.
I see a 15% market correction showing up in the next 4 months but I expect it to be short lived. However, I don’t believe the market will travel as a whole. Certain segments are going to continue upward were others will head down. I expect a lot of trading volume as investors run from technology to value and back.
REITs have taken a real beating in 2020, as the vaccine news gets better look for that segment to rise. Look for some serious volatility in technology with some massive winners and losers. Look at Splunk, missed its growth target and dropped 25% in one day. On the other hand expect OKTA with its facial recognition security software to continue to rise.
Then there is the influence of the Fed, the President, trade disputes, wars and natural disasters. All that could completely change my opinion over night.
I see no pressure to push energy prices up, or interest rates up, this suggests that the market should continue upwards. P/E ratios are high so I’m not expecting the end of 2021 to be much higher than now.
In the end it will be more about what you own than were the market is going. The S&P is up 30% from one year ago. My stocks are up 75% for that same time period(all my stock purchases are on record on my Facebook page).
Is it time to take some money off the table? Well if you are 60 or older I would say yes. Last January my 85 year old father took 90% of his money off the table. Sure he missed a good year but it doesn’t matter he now has all the money he will ever need. A 55 year old who plans to work for the next 15 years should stay in.
BruceK
Moderator Emeritus
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2011
- Messages
- 13,347
- Vessel Name
- Sojourn
- Vessel Make
- Integrity 386
PE ratios mean nothing anymore, it`s likely people anticipating where they think the market will go when the dust settles.
Interest rates are low, rents are low, so the stock market beckons. That bids up stock prices,some at unsupported levels.
After 2 quarters of negative growth signalling our first recession in 30 years, technical or otherwise(real imo),last quarter was 3.5% growth, signalling end of recession.Will it hold? If Covid stays in its box like now, probably yes.
Amazingly Qantas shares have held up dollarwise, despite mass sackings, standdowns and severe service contractions. With State borders largely reopened, the flight paths over Sydney are busier with domestic flights and I think, more overseas flights bringing Aussie citizens/residents home to a compulsory 14 days in a Quarantine Hotel at their own expense. A well run commuter airline is even acquiring 737-800s to expand by flying the east coast.
I would only buy stocks with proven track records. I think some "Afterpay" type stocks will see tears at bedtime.
sunchaser
Guru
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2008
- Messages
- 10,197
- Location
- usa
- Vessel Name
- sunchaser V
- Vessel Make
- DeFever 48 (sold)
In retrospect, the US (and by extension Canadian) markets followed logic. Ultra low interest rates, booming home sales, government pump priming and lots of investor cash reserves kept the ship upright. Savvy investors ignored stupid politics, combustible social media and looked at the fundamentals.
FF
Guru
- Joined
- Oct 12, 2007
- Messages
- 22,552
"Savvy investors ignored stupid politics, combustible social media and looked at the fundamentals."
The question is when will the bubble pop?
Endless QE will be resolved in 2022 with probably 75% pullbacks , world wide.
As it will be world wide a deflation US 30 year Gov bonds will survive.
US Gov. bonds as an investment ? GASP!!! Once every 75 years.
There may be one more up , but it wont be much percentage wise , so 30 year bonds now , and relax till the Dow gets to 600 or so.
The question is when will the bubble pop?
Endless QE will be resolved in 2022 with probably 75% pullbacks , world wide.
As it will be world wide a deflation US 30 year Gov bonds will survive.
US Gov. bonds as an investment ? GASP!!! Once every 75 years.
There may be one more up , but it wont be much percentage wise , so 30 year bonds now , and relax till the Dow gets to 600 or so.
Last edited:
My thought is, I completely disagree with the fundamental premise. The massive drop early in the year defied logic to some extent; it was an understandable, but purely emotional, reaction. The rebound was perfectly logical. We will see next year how the market (in the U.S. at least) responds to Biden's economic policies.
The pullback in the early part of 2020 definiitely was emotionial but it did not defy logic. The market does not like uncertainty. Never has, never will. In uncertain times the VIX market volatility indicator goes way up. In more certain times it comes back down.
Follow this link. It will take you to a 1-year chart of the volatility index. Look at how high it got in the first quarter and look at where it is now. Uncertainty is a huge factor in how the market moves.
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/char...1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1
Canadian home sales climbed 0.9 per cent in September from August, raising them to a new all-time monthly record for the third month in a row, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said on Thursday.
https://vancouversun.com/real-estat...cord/wcm/616c3d46-f632-4e20-b10a-ff2b2119420f
The Vancouver real estate industry reported another month of higher sales and prices in September and continues to defy dire predictions of a pandemic-induced downturn.
https://vancouversun.com/business/r...n-for-the-future-of-vancouvers-housing-market
https://vancouversun.com/real-estat...cord/wcm/616c3d46-f632-4e20-b10a-ff2b2119420f
The Vancouver real estate industry reported another month of higher sales and prices in September and continues to defy dire predictions of a pandemic-induced downturn.
https://vancouversun.com/business/r...n-for-the-future-of-vancouvers-housing-market
BruceK
Moderator Emeritus
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2011
- Messages
- 13,347
- Vessel Name
- Sojourn
- Vessel Make
- Integrity 386
Similar house price increases here. Lowest interest rates ever to stimulate the economy are contributing to demand pressure raising prices.
However,city and inner suburb rental demand here has turned down. Falling population due to temporary residents leaving, students not coming to study, and people leaving cities for less populated areas for reduced Covid transmission risks. Rents are down 15-20%.
- Status
