Weather Accuracy??

[timb7734]

I like passageweather.com

 

[L Erie Tugger]

At least on lakes Erie, Huron and Michigan I have found Windy to consistently underestimate wind velocities and sometimes have spent a few unpleasant hours as a result. Recently I have mostly used the stand up and look method.

 

[psneeld]

I have not figured out how the weather services account for sea breezes.


Some days they don't seem to factor them in, others they are right on if you add in a sea breeze to forecast winds.


It seems hard to estimate how far offshore the breezes effect area winds so without local knowledge of what they are/can be.... hard to improve on local marine broadcast other than the sea breeze component will affect the winds forecast so factor it in.

 

[OldDan1943]

I like passageweather.com

Looks pretty good.
The first one I have seen with isobars.

 

[BigTime]

I have studied the weather for nearly fifty years. The amount of information available at your fingertips now is truly amazing. What I have learned over these years is I’m not a very good meteorologist. In fact there are damn few good professional meteorologists.
This is why I subscribe to Chris Parker at the Marine Weather Center. I am pretty frugal but consider this money well spent.

 

[Seevee]

If you want weather much more that 24 hours out, it's a crap shoot. Granted, you can get a feel with what is most likely, looking at front, pressure, winds, temps and baro.


I use aviation forecasts for the general picture, then use several apps to fine tune the day of departure... mostly NOAA products.



I'm not a big fan of the computer based logarithm ones like Windy... but they help.



With the bouys, that's very usable and dead nuts at the time of when you look at it. Also, real reports of weather from places that have good info like airports. Add in a good app for waves and looking at the progressive aviation charts, one can do pretty well for a days voyage. Much longer, one needs to update the info and adjust accordingly.



Forecasting is an art and often, it's out the window in 8 to 12 hours. Take your chances.


Also, a lot of waves forecast are the "average" and a two foot forecast can be 4 feet a few hours later.

 

[henrymei]

When I really need to know I use Commanders Weather. They have been amazingly accurate. Well worth the price in my opinion.
https://www.commandersweather.com/

 

[SteveK]

I will add Weather to Boat. This is a newer one for Canada wide. Seems to bring info from other sources. Too early for recommendations but try it and compare.

Windy paid has wind waves with direction. That would be nice if accurate.

 

[mvweebles]

If you want weather much more that 24 hours out, it's a crap shoot. Granted, you can get a feel with what is most likely, looking at front, pressure, winds, temps and baro.

I use aviation forecasts for the general picture, then use several apps to fine tune the day of departure... mostly NOAA products.

I'm not a big fan of the computer based algorithm ones like Windy... but they help.
.....

Forecasting is an art and often, it's out the window in 8 to 12 hours. Take your chances.

Lot of good tips to unpack here.

Typical boat owned by a TF member has at least modest cruising potential. By far, the most practical and beneficial attribute a cruiser can invest in to expand their comfortable cruising range is not to buy a Nordhavn, but to understand the underlying weather products available to anyone. As Seevee hints, Pre-packaged weather forecasts offer no clue on how/what/when the it might change so you're at high risk of being surprised.

You cannot beat the NOAA/NWS marine surface charts, sea-state charts, and 500mb charts. They are updated several times a day for current conditions, and 24/48/72-hour forecasts. You can track the direction of the LP/HP systems and see how pressure gradients change (or not), how long the pressure gradients will last, and make intelligent go/no-go decisions.

To my thinking, spending the time to understand the NOAA products (and enduring the inevitable mistake in interpreting them) is the best path to become an independent cruiser vs. one of the herd who always has a reason not to leave tomorrow but rather wait for 3-days.

https://ocean.weather.gov/Pac_tab.php

Peter

 

[Seevee]

Peter,


Good points....
It's hard to be a forecaster, so I'll leave that up to others with way more experience. But we certainly can get a really good idea of what may happen in the next several hour or even a few days..... IF things go like it's predicted.


So, I could argue to make last minute decisions on launching with the lastest weather, and keep up with it as you travel. For coastal cruising, often one can find a safe place to hide should the wx get nasty.


For blue water stuff with figuring stuff days ahead one can look at systems and how they're moving, but that not my thing.... not a blue water guy.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

"Let's face it, they tired of losing their pots and the lobsters and their income."

Perhaps with a good GPS the weekend lobster folks could locate their traps and not lay them between inlet channel markers?

In the PNW, it not IF you hit a crab pot, it's when.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

It would be nice to insert the Lat and Long then let the app find the nearest weather buoy, tidal information, wave height and nearest local weather forecast.
Would be great for planning and when verifying while underway.

Download the USCG app, then click on buoy.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

When making weather decisions I look at NOAA, Environmental Canada, then compare that to Windy.

If it's nasty, we don't go. Admiral has veto power.

The worst thing you can do is make a go-no go weather decision based on a schedule.

 

[SteveK]

Windy has features in the paid app.
Click on location and get nearby real time wind form weather stations.