Hurricane Isaias

[BandB]

Isaias now heading to Bahamas and forecast to be a CAT 1 hurricane before arrival. Forecast to arrive there early Saturday morning.

It was previously headed toward FL but continued to move East. Can always move back of move further East. While currently it projected route remains off the East Coast until it hits land around Beaufort, NC, the cone includes the entire East Coast from Fort Lauderdale (barely) to Massachusetts with it being reduced back to a tropical storm between NC and NJ.

It is fast moving, traveling at 17 mph, so expected to reach the NC area by Monday afternoon.

South Florida most likely under this scenario to see winds from 20 to 30 mph and a good bit of rain. 30 to 40 mph winds by midstate with 50 to 55 mph gusts. By the time it reaches the NC coast, winds around Southport 40 mph and gusts up to 70 mph.

The European model has it actually coming ashore around Wilmington rather than Beaufort, and shows gusts along the NC coast up to 100 mph and shows gusts up to 80 mph all the way up to Maine.

Once again we show a storm intensifying above their original forecasts, to me an indicator their historic data underestimates potency in today's climate and seas. Once again we also see a storm which FL may escape the worst of, only for the Bahamas to receive it.

 

[Ski in NC]

Euro model has eye going right over my house.

 

[Comodave]

Euro model has eye going right over my house.

Hang on to your butt then, good luck.

 

[kapnd]

The Euro Model seems to always show worst case scenario, that’s why the media loves it!
It helps them sell batteries and bottled water.

 

[BandB]

Well, let's note that the wind speed has picked up to 80 mph and expected to increase to 85 mph when it hits the Bahamas.

 

[Comodave]

I think that the Euro model has been more accurate lately, hasn’t it?

 

[BandB]

I think that the Euro model has been more accurate lately, hasn’t it?

Generally, but not always. Now the storm is expected to be CAT 2 before hitting the Bahamas and then it's path and speed become somewhat uncertain.

 

[psneeld]

I believe the GFS system was updated last year and did well with Dorian...we'll see how it goes.

 

[rgano]

My fav example of how the NHC forecasted strengthening at landfall can lead you down the prime rose path is Hurricane Michael. If you can look back at the prediction of, say, about Monday evening before the Wednesday mid-day landfall at Mexico Beach, you'll see a cat 2 or three predicted at landfall. Then it seemed about every 12 hours or so it ramped up to a 4. They never did get to the eventual 5 it became until a number of months later through analysis. My boat storm plan for that one was hampered by the fact that when it hit a forecasted 4, the roads became suddenly clogged with people fleeing from all over the place east of Panama City, and I realized that we could well end up stuck on the roads and possibly blocked by authorities from coming back home from my brother's in Orange Beach, AL area where I had planned to take the boat. Boat ended up in a local canal behind a friend's home with a mere two boat units' worth of damage and blockaded in there for three weeks by fallen trees. In the coulda-woulda-shoulda of that one, I shoulda moved 48 hours early on Monday, but past history with many storms here was that 24 hours was always sufficient.

 

[menzies]

The Euro Model seems to always show worst case scenario, that’s why the media loves it!
It helps them sell batteries and bottled water.

Ummm, why would the media want to sell batteries and water?

I would say they want to grab ratings/eyeballs, sell advertizing.

 

[Swfla]

My fav example of how the NHC forecasted strengthening at landfall can lead you down the prime rose path is Hurricane Michael. If you can look back at the prediction of, say, about Monday evening before the Wednesday mid-day landfall at Mexico Beach, you'll see a cat 2 or three predicted at landfall. Then it seemed about every 12 hours or so it ramped up to a 4. They never did get to the eventual 5 it became until a number of months later through analysis. My boat storm plan for that one was hampered by the fact that when it hit a forecasted 4, the roads became suddenly clogged with people fleeing from all over the place east of Panama City, and I realized that we could well end up stuck on the roads and possibly blocked by authorities from coming back home from my brother's in Orange Beach, AL area where I had planned to take the boat. Boat ended up in a local canal behind a friend's home with a mere two boat units' worth of damage and blockaded in there for three weeks by fallen trees. In the coulda-woulda-shoulda of that one, I shoulda moved 48 hours early on Monday, but past history with many storms here was that 24 hours was always sufficient.

Living in FL from '78 until 2016, timing evacuation plans has changed over the years. As populations grow, one needs to leave sooner. But that also means you may have to leave before you can be fairly certain of where it will land. Glad you stayed safe.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

USCG Issued This

united states coast guard
U.S. Coast Guard 7th District Southeast
Contact: 7th District Public Affairs
Office: 305-415-6683
After Hours: 786-367-7649
7th District online newsroom



Coast Guard sets port condition Whiskey for Port of Canaveral

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Effective 4 p.m. Thursday, the Coast Guard Captain of the Port (COTP) set port condition X-ray for the Port of Canaveral due to the expectation of sustained gale force winds generated by Tropical Storm Isaias that may arrive within 48 hours.

These ports and facilities are currently open to all commercial traffic and all transfer operations may continue while Whiskey remains in effect.

Sustained winds between 39 and 54 mph are possible within 48 hours. Mariners are reminded there are no safe havens in these facilities, and ports are safest when the inventory of vessels is at a minimum. All ocean-going commercial vessels and ocean-going barges greater than 300 gross tons should make plans for departing the port.

Vessels desiring to remain in port must immediately contact the COTP to receive permission and are required to submit a safe mooring plan in writing. Vessels bound for the Port of Canaveral are unable to depart 24 hours prior to threatening winds making landfall are advised to seek an alternate destination.

Pleasure crafts are advised to seek safe harbor. Drawbridges may not be operating if sustained winds reach 25 mph or when an evacuation is in progress. Port facilities are advised to review their heavy weather plans and take all necessary precautions to adequately prepare for the expected conditions. Mariners can view the latest port updates on the Coast Guard’s Homeport site.

If and when port condition Yankee is set, meaning sustained gale force winds are expected within 24 hours, vessel movement shall be restricted, and all commercial movements must be approved by the Captain of the Port.

The Coast Guard is warning the public of these important safety messages:

Stay off the water. The Coast Guard’s search and rescue capabilities degrade as storm conditions strengthen. This means help could be delayed. Boaters should heed weather watches, warnings and small craft advisories.
Evacuate as necessary. If mandatory evacuations are set for an area, the public should evacuate without delay. Coast Guard personnel and other emergency responders may not be able to evacuate or rescue those in danger during the storm.
Secure belongings. Owners of large boats are urged to move their vessels to inland marinas where they will be less vulnerable to breaking free of their moorings or to sustaining damage. Trailer-able boats should be pulled from the water and stored in a place that is not prone to flooding. Those who are leaving their boats in the water are reminded to remove EPIRBs and to secure life rings, lifejackets and small boats. These items, if not properly secured, can break free and require valuable search and rescue resources be diverted to ensure people are not in distress.
Stay clear of beaches. Wave heights and currents typically increase before a storm makes landfall. Even the best swimmers can fall victim to the strong waves and rip currents caused by hurricanes. Swimmers should stay clear of beaches until local lifeguards and law enforcement officials say the water is safe.
Be prepared. Area residents should be prepared by developing a family plan, creating a disaster supply kit, having a place to go, securing their home and having a plan for pets. Information can be found at the National Hurricane Center’s webpage.
Stay informed. The public should monitor the progress and strength of the storm through local television, radio and Internet. Boaters can monitor its progress on VHF radio channel 16. Information can also be obtained on small craft advisories and warnings on VHF radio channel 16.
For information on Tropical Storm Isaias progress and hurricane preparedness, please visit the National Hurricane Center's webpage.

For more breaking news follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

-USCG-

 

[timb]

Euro model has eye going right over my house.

it keeps changing from east of my boat to west of my boat .i don't know what to prepare for so i'm going to try not worrying until Sunday morning ,but that's impossible . i hope my slip neighbors have tied there boat up better.

 

[Leatherneck]

Hope all goes well for you. I stopped at Oriental on my way up to Maryland from Florida back in May. It was my first tie there What a nice little town.

 

[rgano]

Sympathies to all in the path of any storm, but in the wider world, this storm cannot amount to a memorable one simply because the name is so hard for us 'muricans to pronounce. Running for my foxhole and pulling the cover over....