Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[Andy G]

The issue of testing, or lack of, has also become a hot topic.

There is disquiet here(Oz) about the amount of testing we can do, due to the lack of available test kits.South Korea has been very proactive and they have tested a lot more of their population than we have, as has Hong Kong & Singapore.

We have been slow in reacting to the virus, which is the government's responsibility, and the similarities with what is now happening in Spain, with a similar demographic to us, is worrying.

The US has been even slower to test. Our state, NSW, has tested 30,000 people with a population of about 8 million & according to figures today the US has only tested about 40,000 people in total across the entire country.

The point I am trying to make is to a lesser or greater degree, depending on the country, we really have no idea how many people are infected. If you don't have that information you can't project future rates of infection or plan and deliver the medical & other resources to where they may be needed.

 

[FF]

The masses of burorats have their non ending test rules , it will be at least a year or 2 to ready a vaccine.


Their swamp is at risk !!


The current flu vaccine is only25% effective most years.

 

[sunchaser]

Yes, politicians cutting through the red tape is a good thing. More avenues than vaccines are being hot rolled. Two antiviral agents are remdesivir and actema. These are not new and are currently undergoing field testing. These types of anti virals showed great promise for SARS and MERS but development stopped when these serious illnesses died out.

Remdesivir is being used now in the US under a special agreement between the manufacturer and the FDA. Cutting the red tape is essential to stem not only CV but the next one too which is assuredly coming in a few years.

Meanwhile, CV isolation in AZ is easy with no teenagers chomping at the bit to break out. All of this of course raises a bigger question, will globalization, airline travel and cruise ships require a new world wide monitoring paradigm? Unfettered continental travel seems problematic.

 

[Woodland Hills]

Al, I do not think there is another choice at the moment, except the wrong choice.

Today, 1st test vaccination occurred today in the USA. Only this President was able to fastrack such. Hope it works or points them in the right direction.
Trump even called Trudeau to tell him what to do next, close the border except to Americans.

Do you understand that testing will take a minimum of 9 months? You have to vaccinate a test group and let them live their lives for months and months, then test them for antibodies at the end of the study comparing them to a control group with no vaccinations. Then you have to test and monitor them for side effects and adverse reactions. Finally once a vaccine is found you have to make the hundreds of millions of doses and distribute them to the public.

You don’t just give people experimental vaccines and then purposely expose them to a fatal disease to see if it works! That’s not how it works. It will be a year before there is a vaccine and until then the shutdown will have to remain in effect. If it is let up the virus comes roaring back as if there was never a shutdown.

The only possibility of short term relief will come from therapeutics: medicines to treat a he disease.

 

[Woodland Hills]

The masses of burorats have their non ending test rules , it will be at least a year or 2 to ready a vaccine.


Their swamp is at risk !!


The current flu vaccine is only25% effective most years.

Would you volunteer to be a test subject to be given a vaccine that might not work and then be injected with the Coronavirus to see if maybe it would keep you from dying? The rules governing the design and management of viral test programs are there for good reason. There are going to be hundreds if not thousands of test subjects: you don’t just inject them with a fatal disease and hope the vaccine works.

 

[Donsan]

Would you volunteer to be a test subject to be given a vaccine that might not work and then be injected with the Coronavirus to see if maybe it would keep you from dying? The rules governing the design and management of viral test programs are there for good reason. There are going to be hundreds if not thousands of test subjects: you don’t just inject them with a fatal disease and hope the vaccine works.

This is true but if they demonstrate enough safety and efficacy in a larger Phase 1 trial, I would think they could advance to a combined Phase 2/3 trial and save some of the 12-18 month normal cycle. I understand 45 patients are planned for the Phase 1 trial which is fairly large.

 

[AlaskaProf]

The masses of burorats have their non ending test rules , it will be at least a year or 2 to ready a vaccine.

I have a friend who has recurring polio because she was infected by an early iteration of the Salk vaccine.

Many vaccines are made from highly infectious material. There is a reason it takes meticulous repetitive development and testing.

 

[slowgoesit]

I propose that a test vaccine, especially if experimental and potentially highly dangerous, be given to a body of people who daily put their own well being in front of all of those in the general populous or the country . . . .



congress . . .

 

[BandB]

I propose that a test vaccine, especially if experimental and potentially highly dangerous, be given to a body of people who daily put their own well being in front of all of those in the general populous or the country . . . .



congress . . .

Wifey B: That's not nice.

 

[Northern Spy]

Our own Govt is allowing groups up to 500 in number to congregate. That has to be madness. It`s not political, just silly. Hopefully that, and some other half hearted measures, will change at a national meeting overnight.
.

Wow. We are down to 50.

 

[Donsan]

The European Union president hopes there will be a vaccine on the market before autumn. Wonder if the FDA will let Americans get it?

 

[Donsan]

Wow. We are down to 50.

Florida is down to 10.

 

[BandB]

The European Union president hopes there will be a vaccine on the market before autumn. Wonder if the FDA will let Americans get it?

"Hopes" being the key word. Everyone hopes that.

 

[catalinajack]

I have a friend who has recurring polio because she was infected by an early iteration of the Salk vaccine.

Many vaccines are made from highly infectious material. There is a reason it takes meticulous repetitive development and testing.

Alaska, there is no such thing as recurring polio. How do I know? At the age of 4.5 yo I got polio, Type 3 Bulbar, the type that cripples, deforms, and kills. I spent six years in Newington (CT) childrens hospital and underwent painful therapies and years of painful physical therapy. Ibwas lucky and recovered my physical abilities for the most part but with about a 20% loss is muscle response in my upper body. Polio destroys nerve centers known as ganglions but the body is often ablecto find alternative pathways for firing muscles. Unfortunately, these nerve pathways degrade having served double-duty which leads to what is known as post-polio syndrome which is probably what your friend has experienced. At about 50yo, I began to experience tingling in my right leg. Over a period of about five years, my leg began to atrophy to the point where it shrank, the muscles, to about half its size. I have a constant limp. I cannot stand on my toes with that leg.

Am I complaining. No way. I led and still do lead an active life, am an expert skier, bad form though because of my weak right leg. Polio is a terribble disease. A very dear friend, a neighbor girl who lived across the street, got it not long after I. She had a pencil leg all of her life and endured 14 surgeries on her ankle. That bad ankle put strain on her back which lead to a lifetime of pain. About 10 years ago she elected to have that leg amputated below the knee, a very sad story.

The Salk vaccine would not have been issued nearly as quickly under today's testing rules but, at the time, parents did not care. Let me dispel anyone who thinks the coronavirus is frightening as compared to polio. Not even close. Parents across the world were terrified each summer. By the way, yes, summer. Polio proliferated in the northern hemisphere in July, August, September, and October. I came down with it on Halloween. Makes one wonder whether the "common knowlegde" that the virus will go dormant come warm weather. Polio is a virus. It did not go dormant in warm weather.

As to the Salk vaccine, it is a live virus vaccine as opposed to the later-developed Sabin dead virus vaccine. The Salk vaccine sometimes, rarely, caused polio but a small price to pay for the 100,000's of thousands, millions, of polio cases prevented. Your friend got polio from the vaccine. She, as I am, is suffering from post-polio syndrome, not re-occuring polio.

 

[AlaskaProf]

To: CatalinaJack. re: post polio. Yes, thanks, you have described it better than i. My friend does seem to experience "waves" of discomfort and disability.

I clearly remember my mother keeping us three kids in the house for weeks, with the shades drawn (probably more about lack of air-conditioning).

 

[Andy G]

Alaska, there is no such thing as recurring polio. How do I know? At the age of 4.5 yo I got polio, Type 3 Bulbar, the type that cripples, deforms, and kills. I spent six years in Newington (CT) childrens hospital and underwent painful therapies and years of painful physical therapy. Ibwas lucky and recovered my physical abilities for the most part but with about a 20% loss is muscle response in my upper body. Polio destroys nerve centers known as ganglions but the body is often ablecto find alternative pathways for firing muscles. Unfortunately, these nerve pathways degrade having served double-duty which leads to what is known as post-polio syndrome which is probably what your friend has experienced. At about 50yo, I began to experience tingling in my right leg. Over a period of about five years, my leg began to atrophy to the point where it shrank, the muscles, to about half its size. I have a constant limp. I cannot stand on my toes with that leg.

Am I complaining. No way. I led and still do lead an active life, am an expert skier, bad form though because of my weak right leg. Polio is a terribble disease. A very dear friend, a neighbor girl who lived across the street, got it not long after I. She had a pencil leg all of her life and endured 14 surgeries on her ankle. That bad ankle put strain on her back which lead to a lifetime of pain. About 10 years ago she elected to have that leg amputated below the knee, a very sad story.

The Salk vaccine would not have been issued nearly as quickly under today's testing rules but, at the time, parents did not care. Let me dispel anyone who thinks the coronavirus is frightening as compared to polio. Not even close. Parents across the world were terrified each summer. By the way, yes, summer. Polio proliferated in the northern hemisphere in July, August, September, and October. I came down with it on Halloween. Makes one wonder whether the "common knowlegde" that the virus will go dormant come warm weather. Polio is a virus. It did not go dormant in warm weather.

As to the Salk vaccine, it is a live virus vaccine as opposed to the later-developed Sabin dead virus vaccine. The Salk vaccine sometimes, rarely, caused polio but a small price to pay for the 100,000's of thousands, millions, of polio cases prevented. Your friend got polio from the vaccine. She, as I am, is suffering from post-polio syndrome, not re-occuring polio.

Thank you for posting that. It puts the current 'event' in some perspective for me. I will use your story, if I may, when I hear some of my fellow compatriots
moan about the worth of their share portfolio decreasing and their local cafe/pub closing.

 

[firehoser75]

Yes, Thanks CatalinaJack,
With all of this going on, the statistics, conjectures, modelling, reporting, etc. it is easy to forget that on the end of each of these numbers is a human being that is suffering.
Let's not loose sight of that, even for a moment.
Stay safe

 

[Art]

I hope after shutting down the world's economic system there is some [magical] way to boot it back up. My life as a successful entrepreneur tells me... there is BIG trouble ahead throughout the financial world.

Stay safe!

 

[OldDan1943]

I hope after shutting down the world's economic system there is some [magical] way to boot it back up. My life as a successful entrepreneur tells me... there is BIG trouble ahead throughout the financial world.

Stay safe!

Art, if you remember the last time the stock market tanked... I lost 50% of my net worth.... When it came back, the SM started back up and did not slow down. Let's hope this time it will be the same.
There is no rhyme or reason for many stock to nose dive. Just be real thankful you dont have an equity position in the cruise ships.

 

[BandB]

Art, if you remember the last time the stock market tanked... I lost 50% of my net worth.... When it came back, the SM started back up and did not slow down. Let's hope this time it will be the same.
There is no rhyme or reason for many stock to nose dive. Just be real thankful you dont have an equity position in the cruise ships.

Those of us in our 40's have time to make it back. Those in their 80's may not.

 

[Art]

Art, if you remember the last time the stock market tanked... I lost 50% of my net worth.... When it came back, the SM started back up and did not slow down. Let's hope this time it will be the same.
There is no rhyme or reason for many stock to nose dive. Just be real thankful you dont have an equity position in the cruise ships.

One month before the market's severe retraction [crash] that occured 2008... I liquidated my considerable holdings into cash. Told my brothers to do the same. One did, one didn't.

Following that market slide, it took about 6 years for prices to recover to their previous highs.

I didn't go back into the market but rather invested in other profitable items.

Been watching this sky-high market for years as it continued to push its false values ever higher and higher. Knew it would eventually tumble and was a bit surprised it got as outrageously high as it had.

Did not have a clue that this time a virus of nature would crumble civilization's world of a false valued and foolishly structured economic system. How apropos!

IMO - Unless a miraculous virus contagion impediment or perhaps a cure soon becomes available to be readily distributed... the global economic system will fail.

That failure will create national and international chaos. Wars anyone?

There is no way a vast majority the world's businesses can be shut down for extensive periods [months] and still be able to reboot the economic system back into its previous functions; without years and years of unprecedented hardships and struggles.

This ain't my first day on the beach! Probably ain't yours either...

Good luck! Stay healthy, ready and safe!!

 

[OldDan1943]

Art, I too saw the recommendation to liquidate one's holding in the market. The problem for me and others was and is the basis of the holding and the IRS taxing.
I know I wont see the market at its previous level..... IF my heirs are worth their salt, they will realize sitting on the equity stocks and accepting the the dividends is pretty good.
Of course if companies stop paying dividends as did BP (for over a year) that is a different story.

 

[BandB]

Art, I too saw the recommendation to liquidate one's holding in the market. The problem for me and others was and is the basis of the holding and the IRS taxing.
I know I wont see the market at its previous level..... IF my heirs are worth their salt, they will realize sitting on the equity stocks and accepting the the dividends is pretty good.
Of course if companies stop paying dividends as did BP (for over a year) that is a different story.

Should we have liquidated along the way? Probably. I just come from the buy and hold camp. It's worked for years and it's getting very costly this year.

Two ways we can look at things. One way says we've lost 15% of the value of our stocks this month. S&P has lost 20%, DJIA has lost 22%. Horrible.

The other way is we haven't been trading. We're not withdrawing. Most of our stocks, we've owned 7 years or more. Nothing has happened that has changed our lives as it's all what we have on paper, numbers we can look at, but until we decide to use some of it, nothing has happened.

Now, when it comes to business and a shut down and trade and paying people, then that's where our challenge is and where we must focus, not on what is going on in the stock market. Same thing to all our employees and their 401-K's. That doesn't impact their life today. Paychecks do. Coronavirus does. For 25 year olds, seeing their 401-K value drop is a shock, it's a new experience. I hope most older investors are more fixed. All in all though I'm worried about people's health and their pay and survival far more than some stock market numbers.

 

[Insequent]

Yet another Princess in the headlines. Denied entry, but docks anyway. The corporate culture needs a reset, if the company survives.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...ban-news/b0f93644-51cc-4def-85e9-d10aa8532698

The world does not need any Princesses, at least not the cruise ship ones!

 

[BruceK]

Yet another Princess in the headlines. Denied entry, but docks anyway. The corporate culture needs a reset, if the company survives.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...ban-news/b0f93644-51cc-4def-85e9-d10aa8532698

The world does not need any Princesses, at least not the cruise ship ones!

Princess seems to have way more issues than other ships. I understand Australia is making exceptions for ships at sea when the ban was implemented. Voyager OTS docked in Sydney yesterday, no one sick, pax got a 6 day credit towards self isolation so I guess were confined to cabin 6 days (for all the good that does).

 

[BandB]

Yet another Princess in the headlines. Denied entry, but docks anyway. The corporate culture needs a reset, if the company survives.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...ban-news/b0f93644-51cc-4def-85e9-d10aa8532698

The world does not need any Princesses, at least not the cruise ship ones!

For these reasons I'm opposed to anything for cruise lines.

 

[tisado]

Someone pointed out today that while these cruise lines fly flags other than US, don't pay US taxes, hire staff at low wages and provide no staff benefits, they will be in line for bailouts

Celebrity is owned by Royal Caribbean. Totally separate from Carnival which owns Aida, Carnival, Costa, Carnival, Cunard, Holland America, P&O, P&O Australia, Princess and Seabourn. Royal Caribbean owns Azamara, Celebrity, Pullmantur, Royal Caribbean, Share ownership of Silversea, Share ownership of TUI.

 

[BandB]

Someone pointed out today that while these cuise lines fly flags other than US, hire staff at low wages and provide no staff benefits, they will be in line for bailouts

They will be but shouldn't. And while they're not cruising do you think they'll pay a single crew member?

 

[Art]

They will be but shouldn't. And while they're not cruising do you think they'll pay a single crew member?

It appears: The scope and range of all "bailouts" needed to keep global economy from "sinking" is beyond what can be accomplished.

Really glad we live in very rural area, on a tall hill, with what is needed to survive... for years if needed.

 

[FF]

"There is no way a vast majority the world's businesses can be shut down for extensive periods [months] and still be able to reboot the economic system back into its previous functions; without years and years of unprecedented hardships and struggles."


At the end of WWII the "experts" claimed we would go back into a depression.

Millions of soldiers were returning to no jobs , factories were set for war production.

Reality was the demand was very high and consumers had boodles of cash from rationing (nothing to buy) and war bonds to cash.

And Europe needed everything and anything..

Created a pretty good long lasting boom.