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Old 09-09-2017, 12:28 AM   #321
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so in some hours Jose going to pass near St Barth and all ready turn CAT4 close to 5 :bang head:

hop not hit any island again

we in martinique preparing boat to go up and bring necessity

we load boat friend and my boat 3T one generators (around 25 gen set)
water and food baby necessity +++


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Old 09-09-2017, 03:52 AM   #322
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You are good people Tug!
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Old 09-09-2017, 04:27 AM   #323
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so in some hours Jose going to pass near St Barth and all ready turn CAT4 close to 5 :bang head:

hop not hit any island again

we in martinique preparing boat to go up and bring necessity

we load boat friend and my boat 3T one generators (around 25 gen set)
water and food baby necessity +++


Excellent Hugues!

I'm sure the Islands that were hit were as well prepared as they could be under the circumstances, and with support from people like you they will get though the short term.

In the longer term, and that's what rebuilding lives, homes and businesses will take, hopefully they can build to higher codes. People will still want to visit those magic places that occasionally suffer from a natural disaster. They are not stupid for wanting to live there, any more than people are stupid for living in areas that sometimes flood. When events get extreme, planning and preparation can get severely tested and the compromises you choose might be different with hindsight.

In Queensland in general, and in Brisbane in particular, during floods of 2017 and 2011 respectively we have been subjected to similar events that have unfolded and are occurring in SE USA. We can offer some empathy.

The aspect I find most disturbing is that the worst impacted are those least able to afford it. They buy or rent homes in flood plains because they are cheaper, they can afford them and still have enough for other life needs. But when the floods do come, and eventually they always do, they lose the most and it takes a greater proportion of their savings and income to recover. A hard cycle to break out of. I guess its why some move away permanently, but you can't do that if its where your work is.

One recent response in Brisbane that will help for future events is that if you home is in a designated flood zone (and zones are being updated) then building height restrictions are increased by 1m. That enables many to get living areas above flood risk when rebuilding. Indeed, you cannot put living space or readily damaged components below flood level. So, on stilts or concrete blocks, with electrical and vulnerable material (sheetrock) allowed only above flood level. Games room/garage or similar can still be there, but are able to be pressured washed and repainted after flooding rather than needing to be torn out and rebuilt.
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Old 09-09-2017, 09:40 AM   #324
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so in some hours Jose going to pass near St Barth and all ready turn CAT4 close to 5 :bang head:

hop not hit any island again

we in martinique preparing boat to go up and bring necessity

we load boat friend and my boat 3T one generators (around 25 gen set)
water and food baby necessity +++



Fantastic - you are amazing.
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Old 09-09-2017, 09:41 AM   #325
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No one really knows where the exact hits and damage will be but trending west now with heavy surge on the west coast up thru Ft Meyers in a big way.
Stay safe and be prepared...
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:08 AM   #326
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Wifey B: They really shouldn't put reporters at marinas who know absolutely nothing about marinas, boats, docks, normal tides, normal wind shifts or anything else related to marinas.
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:29 AM   #327
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Wasn't Irma at about the maximum theoretical size an Atlantic hurricane could get before the eye drifted over landmasses? This makes me think the models might have a hard time predicting its path, since it is so far beyond the average.
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:30 AM   #328
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Thinking about anyone out there in the storm track. Be safe.
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:31 AM   #329
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101TUG
GOOD WORK!
Thank You
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:41 AM   #330
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We just got the move to a Hurricane Warning from Watch. Meaning if it is coming here in is within 48 hours.

Yet the 11:00am update shows it still moving west over Cuba now as a Cat 3 and slowing to 9mph. They have moved the turning point west again.

Our wind probabilities for Monday are (34/50/64kts): 64/27/7%
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:43 AM   #331
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Hurricane Andrew was a really bad awful one for Florida.

Notice here how much larger is Irma.
Although I wonder if it will be much worse than Andrew was. Bigger just means more rain farther from the center eye.



Here’s why Irma is a monster hurricane, in one GIF. | Grist
If Andrew were any tighter it would have been considered a tornado. It had tornadic type winds as a hurricane.
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:45 AM   #332
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Wasn't Irma at about the maximum theoretical size an Atlantic hurricane could get before the eye drifted over landmasses? This makes me think the models might have a hard time predicting its path, since it is so far beyond the average.

I does seem like the models are having trouble predicting. I think the EU mode has been the closest.
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:51 AM   #333
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Wasn't Irma at about the maximum theoretical size an Atlantic hurricane could get before the eye drifted over landmasses? This makes me think the models might have a hard time predicting its path, since it is so far beyond the average.
Actually the Euro model hasn't shifted all that much, just the US model has shifted west toward it.

They always have made clear that 4 and 5 days out the cone they show could easily be over 150 miles off.

The west coast of Florida was always in the cone they showed and always on some models. East coast to west coast of FL isn't a long distance.

It does seem that they overemphasized SE Florida a bit on television and under-emphasized SW FL. Probably a matter of population as SE Florida has so much more, but none of the maps ever have shown a huge risk from surge in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm and the maps always show that even with a lesser storm there is a risk in Naples and Fort Myers and along SW FL. Obviously risk in Keys.

The Euro model has shifted the core less than 50 miles in the entire time. The GFS model has shifted the core probably over an area close to 200 miles east and west. It has gone between an area about 40-60 miles east of the east coast to an area on the west coast. Still that's perfectly normal when you're starting four and five days out.

Now, all six models stay within less than 20 miles of each other through most of FL. By the time they hit the GA border, the range between them is about 40 miles. That's over two days away. Add another two - four days to the plan and one is in Arkansas, two are in Tennessee, two are in Kentucky, and one is in Illinois.
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Old 09-09-2017, 11:02 AM   #334
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If Andrew were any tighter it would have been considered a tornado. It had tornadic type winds as a hurricane.
Andrew was certainly an outlier. Not at all like other major hurricanes that have hit the US. It just happened to hit a very metropolitan area very hard. It destroyed neighborhoods of homes and 20 miles away very little damage and it hit high rise all glass office buildings. The Burger King headquarters is somewhat like Tornado damage I've seen in downtown Fort Worth. High rise glass buildings. The damage to that one building was over $20 million so it doesn't take long for the numbers to add up like that. It destroyed over 1600 homes in Country Walk, one development, one developer. That was over $200 million.
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Old 09-09-2017, 01:03 PM   #335
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Wifey B: They really shouldn't put reporters at marinas who know absolutely nothing about marinas, boats, docks, normal tides, normal wind shifts or anything else related to marinas.
Wifey B: Also, they're looking up at buildings and talking about unprotected windows. Guess they don't know that many buildings here have hurricane impact resistant windows too. Now, we still use shutters to protect the windows from scratching.
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Old 09-09-2017, 02:20 PM   #336
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Plus there's not a lot of debris flying around 20 stories up in the air
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Old 09-09-2017, 02:38 PM   #337
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Wifey B: Poor Fort Lauderdale Family evacuated to Naples. They returned here with their family from Naples.
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Old 09-09-2017, 03:06 PM   #338
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Wow. Yeah it's hard to figure out where to evacuate to in FL.
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Old 09-09-2017, 04:37 PM   #339
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I really don't get. I've been reading all the posts on finding a safe mooring or marina and how to secure your boat. The likely hood of Florida being hit has been known for days. These are avid boaters with a passion for cruising. Their boats are relatively new or older with a lot of work put into them. Yet their content to stay in Florida. Why oh why don't the east coasters take a cruise north and the west coasters take a cruise west. Why take the risk. I really don't get it.
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Old 09-09-2017, 04:44 PM   #340
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You will "get it" once you own a slow boat and have to actually deal with it. It's not easy like you think.
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