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Old 09-23-2022, 04:25 PM   #1
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Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09

Not looking good. Living in Florida you have to expect these but one could hope that the forecasters are wrong. Crap!
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Old 09-23-2022, 04:36 PM   #2
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Greetings,
Yep. Don't look good.



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Old 09-23-2022, 05:57 PM   #3
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If you are in Jaxsonville, you have a lot less to worry about than those in the south west parts of Florida.......The storm will weaken considerably as it travels over land without the warm water to sustain it.......and 8 or 9 days out things can change drastically.
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Old 09-23-2022, 06:15 PM   #4
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The thing I hate about hurricane forecasts is the hope and prayer hand-wringing because it's a zero sum game. Right now, the "M" is right around Sarasota, which puts St Petersburg on the clean side, which is good for us, bad for Sarasota.

The models have a surprising amount of convergence right now.

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Old 09-23-2022, 06:29 PM   #5
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I truly hate the fact that the current cone has the 2PM Weds "M" right on top of us. We've got the house sold and are ready to head out - Buyer's walkthrough is scheduled for Weds morning and closing is scheduled for Thurs AM. Hoping this storm will move to one side or the other...
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Old 09-23-2022, 06:46 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benthic2 View Post
If you are in Jaxsonville, you have a lot less to worry about than those in the south west parts of Florida.......The storm will weaken considerably as it travels over land without the warm water to sustain it.......and 8 or 9 days out things can change drastically.
I agree but disagree and hope you’re right that things can change

Winds and/or/storm surge plus winds are a big issue when a hurricane hits land but even when the storm is weakening or 100 miles away you can still be screwed. Jacksonville had 250 year flooding in 2017 with Irma. We live at less than 5’ above sea level.
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Old 09-23-2022, 07:14 PM   #7
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Spent the day taking down canvas, stowing deck chairs - all the fun stuff. If the current cone of uncertainty (remember agent 99?) holds true we will see a Cat 3 pass right over our marina Really surprised that I was about the only one doing boat preps there today - my guess is tomorrow will be different...

Preparing the best I can and hoping for the best. Admiral and I will watch it all on the news while in Atlanta. Just too old and grumpy to deal with this hurricane crap on-scene anymore
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Old 09-23-2022, 07:16 PM   #8
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Spent the day taking down canvas, stowing deck chairs - all the fun stuff. If the current cone of uncertainty (remember agent 99?) holds true we will see a Cat 3 pass right over our marina Really surprised that I was about the only one doing boat preps there today - my guess is tomorrow will be different...

Preparing the best I can and hoping for the best. Admiral and I will watch it all on the news while in Atlanta. Just too old and grumpy to deal with this hurricane crap on-scene anymore
We are doing boat prep too, except for the winter…
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Old 09-23-2022, 10:14 PM   #9
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Now TS Ian. No detectable change in course.

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Old 09-23-2022, 10:41 PM   #10
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Greetings,

TS Ian? What happened to Hermoine? https://www.almanac.com/content/hurricane-names
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Old 09-23-2022, 10:55 PM   #11
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Greetings,

TS Ian? What happened to Hermoine? https://www.almanac.com/content/hurricane-names



Moron weathermen (weatherpersons) could not pronounce Hermoine...
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:18 PM   #12
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Greetings,
Windy forecasts it will cross Florida from Cape Coral to Satellite Beach then pay a visit Myrtle Beach, SC. Wherever it goes, stay safe. I will extend the same wish to those that are in the path of, now, TS Fiona...

https://halifax.citynews.ca/local-ne...-today-5861239
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:31 PM   #13
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greetings,
yep. Don't look good.



lol rt.
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Old 09-24-2022, 07:10 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by mvweebles View Post
The thing I hate about hurricane forecasts is the hope and prayer hand-wringing because it's a zero sum game. Right now, the "M" is right around Sarasota, which puts St Petersburg on the clean side, which is good for us, bad for Sarasota.

The models have a surprising amount of convergence right now.

Peter Attachment 132287
With a Cat 4 it will be problematic no matter which side if its close enough and you are at or near the coast.
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Old 09-24-2022, 07:25 AM   #15
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With a Cat 4 it will be problematic no matter which side if its close enough and you are at or near the coast.
All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.

Latest NHC projection attached. Remarkably steady forecast.......for now

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Old 09-24-2022, 07:50 AM   #16
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Yes better to be on the dry side.
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Old 09-24-2022, 08:08 AM   #17
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I still remember when someone asked me, "What do you do when it rains?" to which I replied, "I generally stay inside and dry."
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Old 09-24-2022, 08:16 AM   #18
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I think I remember that the dangerous semi circle's real power is partially defined by the speed of the storm when it hits.

On the other hand, surface winds in the lesser semicircle are are often degraded by land based obstructions,, except where funneling occurs or tornadic activity....
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Old 09-24-2022, 08:34 AM   #19
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If the present forecast track holds, the west coast of Florida from the Keys to around Bradenton is in for major punishment. But, if the eyewall drifts just 40 miles to the west of the forecast track, it will make landfall someplace north of Clearwater. In that case, Tampa Bay itself will finally experience its "perfect storm" scenario, with hurricane-force winds out of the southwest pushing water through the Bay entrance causing major flooding all the way up its rivers and estuaries. If it doesn't happen with Hurricane Ian, it will eventually - just a matter of time. I love the Tampa Bay area - lived there for 25 years - but its vulnerability to this particular hurricane orientation is scary.
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Old 09-24-2022, 08:34 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by mvweebles View Post
All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.

Latest NHC projection attached. Remarkably steady forecast.......for now

PeterAttachment 132299

Interactive SLOSH map3, for modeling...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/?text#map
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