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Old 09-10-2018, 06:52 AM   #41
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We have full moon tides yesterday and today, so normal at least for this area. How far out does tidal amplification radiate from a storm? I'd be surprised if it's impacting the coast already, but maybe it is?
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Old 09-10-2018, 07:16 AM   #42
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New moon where I am.....often greated tidal range than full moon tides.

That ....plus 2 days of wind and seas at just the correct angle can be worse in the inlet I am behind.
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Old 09-10-2018, 07:17 AM   #43
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This is a web cam on Atlantic Beach, where the beach is for the most part east and west. And depending on where the storm makes landfall, the heavy seas are not always shown when its northeast winds. This is not the same with the huge swell and seas along the outer banks from Virginia to Hatteras. There always seems to be a breach of the ocean to the sound north of Hatteras.

https://atlantislodge.com/beach-cam.php
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Old 09-10-2018, 07:33 AM   #44
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Although it may not be a CAT 4 when it hits, if it is it will only be the 4th in history north of GA. Also, there's a substantial chance of it stalling when hitting and being much like Harvey. Flooding up to 200 miles inland is possible with the heavy rainy season already experienced. Currently a CAT 2, expected to be CAT 3 during the day, and CAT 4 by tomorrow.
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Old 09-10-2018, 08:19 AM   #45
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I just spent the last 24 hours experiencing the joys of what Gordon still had to offer. Lake Erie was a sloppy mess yesterday. Forecast called for NE winds to 35, with seas around 9í. That isnít a deal breaker for my fully loaded fat bottomed girl, so I trucked on. I then found myself in steady 40-45 mph wind, and 10-12 foot seas, with the occasional 14 footer. Nothing much to do but check the speed back a bit and stem into it. We took green water over the bow a good dozen times. Iíve never put so much water on the deck of a ship before. It was all far too exciting, and if I had it to do over again, Iíd have anchored.

That was all from just the tired, worn out scraps of what used to be a tropical storm. I canít imagine a cat 3 or 4.

Good luck and be safe.
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Old 09-10-2018, 08:39 AM   #46
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Yikes. 14í! Do you ever get to take a video while underway?
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Old 09-10-2018, 08:46 AM   #47
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We just put in restrictions for Florence and Olivia (Hawaii)- means that we’re not writing coverage in the potentially affected areas, and are on standby with our CAT response teams.

Button the boat up and get out of harms way...
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:09 AM   #48
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New moon where I am.....often greated tidal range than full moon tides.

That ....plus 2 days of wind and seas at just the correct angle can be worse in the inlet I am behind.

You know, it's funny you should say that. I was going to say New Moon when I posted, and though "I better check". The tide chart I found clearly said Full Moon, so it would appear to have it reversed. New Moons are always higher here too. The other clue is that there hasn't been a full moon out at night (or day).
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:15 AM   #49
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You know, it's funny you should say that. I was going to say New Moon when I posted, and though "I better check". The tide chart I found clearly said Full Moon, so it would appear to have it reversed. New Moons are always higher here too. The other clue is that there hasn't been a full moon out at night (or day).
I am often shocked by the amount of incorrect info we are surrounded by.

Many current reprintings I have come across are way different than the current I am usually fighting...
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:17 AM   #50
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I am often shocked by the amount of incorrect info we are surrounded by.

Many current reprintings I have come across are way different than the current I am usually fighting...

Actually, in this case it turns out it was my mistake. I miss-read the full/new icons. But still a particularly high tide on it's own, and not influenced by Florence - at least not yet.
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:20 AM   #51
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Everyone remember it's a boat and can be replaced. Pack out the important stuff and seek safe refuge until after the storm has passed. Please, no one put yourselves in danger. The boat and stuff can be replaced. You can't be replaced. Stay safe out there.


I'm in Spartanburg, SC so well away from the worst of it.


Hopefully most of us have insurance and while nobody wants to go that route.. its there for a reason.

I've seen too many people push themselves to ride out the storm on the boat to keep tabs.. That may be fine for a TS or Cat 1 with good protections from wind but past that the odds of dying go way up.

If you don't have insurance I suggest you get down, pick a direction(south is best) and start "steaming".
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Old 09-10-2018, 11:25 AM   #52
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We're gonna get hammered here. 90 miles north of Wilmington and on the north side of the swirl. Not gonna be good. 7 foot storm surge up the Pamlico predicted. Our tides are wind driven and the Pamlico runs west to east. In a CAT3 rated Marina this time so only moderately worried, but it'll likely be bad. Marina Work party tomorrow to get everything battened down....We're all marina owners so we are motivated.

Rode Mathew out on the boat last time.......not gonna do that again!
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Old 09-10-2018, 11:32 AM   #53
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It intensified back to CAT 4 faster than forecast as surface sea temperatures are 2 degrees above normal. Now forecast for landfall as a borderline CAT 3/CAT 4 and storm surge of 15-20' possible. Plus considerable inland flooding in an area already saturated.
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Old 09-10-2018, 11:41 AM   #54
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Ya'll need some good news. Many Bahamas resorts are running low rates now that it is Sept. There is still time to boat there.
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Old 09-10-2018, 12:10 PM   #55
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Ya'll need some good news. Many Bahamas resorts are running low rates now that it is Sept. There is still time to boat there.
Wifey B: We'll be home around 8:30 or 9:00 tonight and right there, but just hard to get in the mood right now. I'm trying. We're thinking of running across. However, I remember the floods in NC and SC in early October, 2015 and that was nothing by comparison and Matthew in 2016. These are areas that flood with storms. I keep hoping it will detour or lose strength or lose all it's moisture, but I've seen the devastation caused by lesser hurricanes.
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Old 09-10-2018, 01:30 PM   #56
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Weather.com claims a 15 to 20 foot storm surge possible.
Now imagine that, I can't imagine that at my boat slip. I am in Seaford Va, lower Chesapeake bay. I can not even contemplate what 10 foot more of water would do here.
If you hauled out, imagine what 15 to 20 foot of surge would do to boats up on stands at your marina. Where I am the parking lot actually goes under water at very high normal tides. Seaford is very low land area.
High tide that I saw was unusually high today at my slip, a few inches below the finger pier. neighbors pier was covered in sea grass, which means it went under water.
My prep, I tied my bimini top shut. And added a large fender to the finger pier.

Anyone ever ride out a hurricane on the boat? I did that for a cat 1 over 10 yrs ago. Was not a bad experience. The eye came right over us, so calm, then the winds reversed. that was at the Salt Ponds in Hampton Va. Huge breaking waves were visible at the inlet. We had some white water in the harbor.

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-0...t-coast-cities
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Old 09-10-2018, 01:50 PM   #57
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Weather.com claims a 15 to 20 foot storm surge possible.
Now imagine that, I can't imagine that at my boat slip. I am in Seaford Va, lower Chesapeake bay. I can not even contemplate what 10 foot more of water would do here.
If you hauled out, imagine what 15 to 20 foot of surge would do to boats up on stands at your marina. Where I am the parking lot actually goes under water at very high normal tides. Seaford is very low land area.
High tide that I saw was unusually high today at my slip, a few inches below the finger pier. neighbors pier was covered in sea grass, which means it went under water.
My prep, I tied my bimini top shut. And added a large fender to the finger pier.

Anyone ever ride out a hurricane on the boat? I did that for a cat 1 over 10 yrs ago. Was not a bad experience. The eye came right over us, so calm, then the winds reversed. that was at the Salt Ponds in Hampton Va. Huge breaking waves were visible at the inlet. We had some white water in the harbor.

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-0...t-coast-cities
You were lucky. I can see absolutely no reason to "ride it out" on the boat. There is nothing you can do but get hurt or worse when things are at full throttle. Stick your head out a car window for an hour while going 80 for a taste of that action.

I've been at anchor in the midst of a microcell that was clocked over 80mph (my anemometer blue off its mount at 65) and it was about an hour of near hell, in the middle of the night of course. The hour on either side of that at 45mph was no fun either. Imagine that for many many hours.... no thanks! And for those of you wondering this was on a Delta anchor, all chain rode in the mud at Cape Lookout Bight. I was ready to start the engines at the slightest sign of dragging. Didn't budge.
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Old 09-10-2018, 01:57 PM   #58
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You were lucky. I can see absolutely no reason to "ride it out" on the boat. There is nothing you can do but get hurt or worse when things are at full throttle. Stick your head out a car window for an hour while going 80 for a taste of that action.

I've been at anchor in the midst of a microcell that was clocked over 80mph (my anemometer blue off its mount at 65) and it was about an hour of near hell, in the middle of the night of course. The hour on either side of that at 45mph was no fun either. Imagine that for many many hours.... no thanks! And for those of you wondering this was on a Delta anchor, all chain rode in the mud at Cape Lookout Bight. I was ready to start the engines at the slightest sign of dragging. Didn't budge.
We were told at the time, the storm surge was coming in at low tide. I recall the boat rode up a little above normal high tide and simply stayed there the whole time. I stayed on the boat with a friend to adjust the lines if needed. Other people also were on their boats.

My prior marina, we had some bad noreasters, water rose about 5 foot, so the parking area was 3 foot under water. My slipmate and a few other lived on their boats, and the two of them adjusted my lines if they needed it, which I appreciated. That surge was about 5 to 6 feet, and no boats at the marina were damaged that time.
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Old 09-10-2018, 02:27 PM   #59
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The absolute effectiveness of a hurricane hole makes the difference to me. Based on what many others call hurricane holes...no wonder it's dangerous to stay aboard....those holes don't meet my requirements for safety/risk management.

The hardest thing in picking good hurricane holes is how to judge is storm surge. This is getting better with the predictions available now.

I rode out Sandy in a hole that did exactly what it was supposed to do....keep the winds to swirling nill and wavelets under 1 foot because I was 100 feet under any straight line winds (terrain and trees 300 degrees surrounding a hole less than 1/4 than a mile wide). The eye almost passed right over us.

But even 15 miles up a winding, shallow river did little or nothing to reduce the storm tide. I rose almost 7 feet which almost floated me over the bulkhead I was ties to. Next time I would stern tie and lay bow to a couple anchors....if I did it again.

But at no time was there any great danger as I could step off the boat at any time and wade to a street full of emergency management vehicles less than 100 feet away.

I walked the dog along the bulkhead regularly those 2 days with just the period of the one high tide that was too deep for the dog.

One advantage of flying USCG helos is you get to scope out great hurricane holes and get paid for it.
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Old 09-10-2018, 03:32 PM   #60
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For what it's worth, y'all on the East Coast have my thoughts and prayers. Keep your perspective. I "love" my old boat. Worked on her for a decade and spent more money on a depreciating asset than sanity would dictate.

But I won't (and have not) risk so much as a broken small finger to save her from the ravages of a storm. You do what you reasonably can at the moment. Most of that is the sum of the preplanning done months ago. Then get on to protecting the big and really important stuff - family, friends, and critters.

Good luck. Be safe.
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