Coronavirus and buying a boat

[Woodland Hills]

Given that this is a Boomer Virus, killing mostly boomers, and that many boomers own boats, the prices should drop once their heirs put them on the market. It will take time for all the wills to be read though and for the legal system to work through them and grant title.

I just hope there will be enough ICU beds and respirators. There isn’t much slack in the system: hospitals that have empty beds go out of business thus they are forced to run nearly full at the best of times. The US has 2.8 empty beds per 1000 citizens, Italy had 3.4 per 1000 and South Korea had over 12 per 1000 citizens. That should be a sobering statistic.

 

[Woodland Hills]

Again, not minimizing this but, having spent time in Italy, the medical system there is not the US, nor is China's. I love going to China (and Italy), I'm there regularly, but the level of hygiene is simply different, when you walk down a street in most Chinese cities you smell sewage. My relatives in Italy tell me when I'm there, "If you get sick, go home right away".

Those who scoffed aren't scoffing now, and they were scoffing at stocking up on supplies, I think they are all taking it very seriously now.

Again, I have faith in this country's medical system and overall ability to respond to crisis, and I suspect warmer weather will reduce the spread. Agreed, here's hoping.

Can anyone explain the mechanism by which warm weather slows this virus? We live in an air conditioned world where it is permanently in the mid 70’s. Every place where we might interact with others is air cooled except the parking lot.

 

[MurrayM]

Can anyone explain the mechanism by which warm weather slows this virus? We live in an air conditioned world where it is permanently in the mid 70’s. Every place where we might interact with others is air cooled except the parking lot.

Gulp...here goes...viruses have a protective coating so they have a chance at finding another host. Dry heat breaks it down quickly compared to cool moist conditions.

 

[Woodland Hills]

Gulp...here goes...viruses have a protective coating so they have a chance at finding another host. Dry heat breaks it down quickly compared to cool moist conditions.

Where is the dry heat in an air conditioned mall or supermarket? Or restaurant or store or home? The only place you will find that is walking in the parking lot. Everywhere we interact with others is air conditioned to the mid to lower 70’s.

 

[Northern Spy]

Given that this is a Boomer Virus, killing mostly boomers, and that many boomers own boats, the prices should drop once their heirs put them on the market. It will take time for all the wills to be read though and for the legal system to work through them and grant title.

I just hope there will be enough ICU beds and respirators. There isn’t much slack in the system: hospitals that have empty beds go out of business thus they are forced to run nearly full at the best of times. The US has 2.8 empty beds per 1000 citizens, Italy had 3.4 per 1000 and South Korea had over 12 per 1000 citizens. That should be a sobering statistic.

We'll someone finally wrote what I was thinking since this thread started.

There is the potential that this could be a large intergenerational transfer of wealth.

 

[Woodland Hills]

We'll someone finally wrote what I was thinking since this thread started.

There is the potential that this could be a large intergenerational transfer of wealth.

In Italy there have been only two deaths of people under 50 out of 1266 total fatalities.

Given that a large percentage of Republican voters are over 60 this could also change voting patterns and our politics.

 

[syjos]

Given that this is a Boomer Virus, killing mostly boomers, and that many boomers own boats, the prices should drop once their heirs put them on the market. It will take time for all the wills to be read though and for the legal system to work through them and grant title.


In Italy there have been only two deaths of people under 50 out of 1266 total fatalities.

Given that a large percentage of Republican voters are over 60 this could also change voting patterns and our politics.

And how old are you?

The oldest boomer is 75.

Coronavirus death rate for 50 to 59 is 1.3%

60 to 70 is 3.6%

70 to 80 is 8%

80 plus is 14.8%

 

[firehoser75]

And how old are you?

The oldest boomer is 75.

Death rate for 50 to 59 is 1.3%

60 to 70 is 3.6%

70 to 80 is 8%

80 plus is 14.8%

Old enough to vote.

 

[Woodland Hills]

And how old are you?

The oldest boomer is 75.

Coronavirus death rate for 50 to 59 is 1.3%

60 to 70 is 3.6%

70 to 80 is 8%

80 plus is 14.8%

I’m 67. BTW, those are old numbers: the latest from Italy shows 35% for 70 to 79 and 44% for 80 to 89. IIRC, it’s 16% for 60 to 69. Italy has healthcare comparable to ours except for having more beds: 3.4 per 1000 vs our 2.8 per 1000. Hospitals in America with empty beds go out of business so we do not have much excess capacity to handle an emergency. The fatality rate is so high because they aren’t able to care for so many sick at once and are not putting the older patients on ventilators, just the young. They are allowed the old to die to save the middle aged.

 

[Magneto]

I'm 60 so while I'm here...

 

[firehoser75]

Let's admit that the numbers are a moving target, changing for many reasons not the least of which is the health care available. Even the health care available is widely variable such as third world and lack of facilities, lack of capacity to cope, etc.
One thing we can agree on (I hope) is that the number of deaths is going to be terribly high, and will be way, way worse if we do not slow down drastically the rate of spread. There is good "predictive" information available that shows that we can reduce the death rate by a factor of 10 if we basically "stop the spread", requiring huge efforts of social distancing, but then suffering "other" costs. It appears it will be costly one way or another.
My free advise, don't wait for your Government to tell you what to do, take steps to "isolate" yourself (family) now. Due to how this thing grows exponentially, reducing the number of cases now will have a much larger impact later in slowing this down.
The medical triaging described by Woodland is very common in war. This is a war, just this time we are at war with an unseen, sneeky, very contagious virus.

 

[Steve DAntonio]

Can anyone explain the mechanism by which warm weather slows this virus? We live in an air conditioned world where it is permanently in the mid 70’s. Every place where we might interact with others is air cooled except the parking lot.

Here's an excerpt from the study i recently read explaining this...its premise is we are seeing rapid spreading of the virus in a similar latitude belt, where temp and RH are similar. Why aren't we seeing it in the tropics? This would explain why. As far as air conditioning, the ideal virus range is 5-11C and 47-79% humidity, that's chilly even for Florida air conditioning.


“A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11OC and 47-79% humidity). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. We have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
Many infectious diseases show a seasonal pattern in their incidence. An onerous burden for health care systems around the globe, influenza is the characteristic example.1 The influenza virus shows significant seasonal fluctuation in temperate regions of the world but nevertheless displays less seasonality in tropical areas.2-4 Despite the multitude of possible mechanisms proposed to explain this variation, our current understanding of this phenomenon is still superficial.5
Figure 1. World temperature map November 2018-March 2019. Color gradient indicates 1000hPa temperatures in degrees Celsius. Black circles represent countries with significant community transmission (> 6 deaths as of 3/5/3019). Image from Climate Reanalyzer (https://ClimateReanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA.”

 

[Capt. Jon]

We have been traveling in our RV for the last month. Decide yesterday to head home. We have been just amazed at the run on stores for items such as toilet paper and paper towels. Even in the middle of nowhereville the store shelves are empty of paper items. On the other hand there are plenty of canned goods and other food items on the shelf. Many areas around Major cities where people congregate for restaurants etc are deserted. Business owners we have talked to along the way are starting to really worry on what will happen to them.

I agree people are beginning to be serious but it seems they should be buying food stocks. Living in a hurricane prone area as we do it’s always the first thing on our mind! We always have at least a months worth of food in the house. People panicking is the main reason we are headed home! Once this passes I personally think it changes a lot of us forever.

 

[oscar]

Given that a large percentage of Republican voters are over 60 this could also change voting patterns and our politics.

You noticed....

 

[FF]

Used to be folks laughed at "preppers" , now folks are thinking they had a good idea.

Most oldr offshore sailors had the goodies to survive a month at least of no store visits.

The value of cruising books from the 1940's or 50's just went up?