Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[slowgoesit]

OK, I did some searches. This quote best summarizes what basically all the sources I found say:

Pretty much what I'd heard before. The air is about 50% recirculated.

Of course, while you're sitting on the plane waiting to leave, or after arriving, it might all be recirculated. On some flights I've been on, that could be a long time.

Getting back to the original point, there's some risk in everything you do.

There is ABSOLUTELY risk in everything we do. Some of the newer air frame manufacturers are beginning to introduce recirculating cabin air, running the recirculated air through Hepa filters. It's always been a trade off. Filters cost money on a recurring basis, also add weight, but recirculating reduces amount of high pressure air you "rob" from engines. High pressure air comes at the expense of more fuel burned. So they balance the cost of filters/weight with the reduced fuel burn in recirculating. The amount of re-circulation (if the aircraft in question has that feature) can be adjusted anywhere from no re-circulation, to about 30% re-circulation (from Boeing literature). I have been told (I don't have a credible reference for you, unfortunately, only what I found on the internet) that airlines that have aircraft equipped to re-circulate have opted to NOT re-circulate at the present time, due to health concerns with Covid-19.

Although I don't think the risk of exposure from Covid-19 while traveling in aircraft is very great, we are opting to not travel via air travel at the present time, and to DEFINITELY not consider commercial cruising, the latter possibly permanently. As stated before, it's all about managing risks. Become informed, assess the risks, manage the risks and live your lives.

 

[boathealer]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN26N2KR

 

[kthoennes]

We were enthusiastic cruise customers for years and we'll be the first ones back on when they start sailing again, but Cunard keeps calling me trying to get us to "book early." Place a - fully refundable! - deposit now to reserve 2021 and 2022 cruises. Why on earth would we do that? We'll be guaranteed to get our first choice in rooms and voyages! Yeah, I don't think that'll be a problem.

 

[BandB]

We were enthusiastic cruise customers for years and we'll be the first ones back on when they start sailing again, but Cunard keeps calling me trying to get us to "book early." Place a - fully refundable! - deposit now to reserve 2021 and 2022 cruises. Why on earth would we do that? We'll be guaranteed to get our first choice in rooms and voyages! Yeah, I don't think that'll be a problem.

Why on earth would you do that? To help their cash flow. lol

 

[bligh]

Why on earth would you do that? To help their cash flow. lol

BB , I am curious if you have any knowledge regarding the course of the bareboat (mostly sail) charter industry. I would think they are getting killed financially as i suspect most of the fleets are financed.

 

[Dougcole]

Interesting read, though poorly written.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/01/florida-keys-cruise-ship-ban-covid-19

 

[cks]

I will be the 10,000,001 th passenger on a cruise again with a reputable cruise line provided none before me contract Covid-19.

 

[kthoennes]

That's okay, if they have to strap me to the bulbous bow of the Queen Mary with a scuba tank (in a tux of course), I'll be a willing early passenger, however, I will need breakfast each day of the passage with a coddled egg on toast.

 

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

SAD Being Parted out

If you need SS sinks, electric wiring, chairs or silverware.


https://gcaptain.com/cruise-ship-sh...139820873&mc_cid=4d7d297de1&mc_eid=5b70bcca05

 

[Mike Lowthian]

Cruise industry

Not directly on the subject but may be of interest:

We just returned from a month long cruise in the Bahamas. Between Bimini and the Berry Islands, still on the Bahama Bank in about 75 ft. of water, we found a giant parking lot of cruise ships - about 20 of them, anchored a mile or less apart. Strange sight. I guess anchoring off shore like that is cheaper than some dock in Florida?

Apparently caused quite a contraversey among the locals.

 

[CaptTom]

This just in...

https://www.marinelog.com/shipping/...-framework-for-phased-resumption-of-cruising/

Cruise line stocks soared today as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a framework for a phased resumption of cruise ship passenger operations.

The full framework runs to 40 pages of pretty detailed conditions of what cruise lines must do to get a “COVID-19 Conditional Sailing Certificate” that needs careful study, but there’s evidently enough in the executive summary issue to excite Wall Street....

 

[BruceK]

This time last year we were boarding Ruby Princess for a short "birthday cruise' for my partner. The thought of doing it now produces anxiety. Cruise ships will be one of the last activities to resume. HAL is currently advertising 2022 Pacific cruises.

 

[BandB]

A bit of an update.

Wifey B:

SeaDream 1 is the first cruise ship to embark on a voyage in the Caribbean since the coronavirus shut down the cruise industry. The trip was meant to show how increased safety protocols could allow operations to restart. Many of the passengers are journalists and bloggers invited to cover the week-long trip.

53 guest on board. At least 5 of them have now tested positive for Covid 19.

Well, they wanted to show how effective their new protocols were, and I think they did.

This was about as controlled a situation as they could create and it failed. Now perhaps had they said no one could leave their cabin during the cruise. Omg, we're in trouble with Thanksgiving and families who ignore all precautions and have a gathering with lots of hugging and talking.

 

[BruceK]

Wifey B:

SeaDream 1 is the first cruise ship to embark on a voyage in the Caribbean since the coronavirus shut down the cruise industry. The trip was meant to show how increased safety protocols could allow operations to restart. Many of the passengers are journalists and bloggers invited to cover the week-long trip.

53 guest on board. At least 5 of them have now tested positive for Covid 19. ....

And now we know what happens if cruising restarts too early.
There is talk here of restarting cruising between Australia and New Zealand,solely for residents of those 2 countries.(Note Ruby Princess was cruising Australia/NZ when "the **** hit the fan") We already let NZers in without quarantine on arrival, though at this stage they don`t reciprocate. We`re approaching creating a 'travel bubble" for our 2 countries.
But I`d let some cruises go ahead before I signed up. Even then, got my doubts. Maybe when the vaccines are up and running and proven.

 

[SteveK]

How were they infected, that is the question.

"The ship's medical staff has tested all crew members and all tests have come back negative. SeaDream is currently retesting all guests," SeaDream's statement says.
Passengers were tested both in advance of traveling to the ship and also before boarding the ship, Sloan said.

 

[firehoser75]

That is why one person I have been following on the web re: Corona virus calls it the "Honey Badger" virus. You just can't contain it. Even when you think you have it completely caged, it always escapes!!
Even after the Seadream incident, I just heard on the radio yesterday that Royal Carribbean is looking for "volunteers" to go on a "free" cruise to test out their new Covid procedures. This is the same cruise lines that refused to give us ANY refund for a cruise we booked before Covid was even known (in the news or mainstream). We should have been on the cruise now, if Covid hadn't happened.

Right now, I don't understand how anyone would even think about cruising. Cases are rising worldwide (most places), and from my experience with one cruise line, you risk losing any money you deposit!!

 

[SteveK]

Tom, you should sign up for the cruise and then not go and ask for a raincheck.

 

[firehoser75]

Steve,
They are willing to give us "partial credit" towards a future cruise, with them keeping about half the deposits "for their troubles" having us cancel. We had booked 2 "back to back" one week cruises, so to use our partial credit, we have to book 2 cruises again (or lose another portion). We wanted a full refund, like they offered before they "changed their policy" and they did not mention the change when we booked these cruises directly with them about a year ago. We cancelled with 9 months notice (back in late February/ early March) when we could "see the writing on the wall" with Covid. Personally, I do not want to give RCL another nickel of my money, even if we end up with a complete cure for Covid!

 

[SteveK]

I hear you.
Glad I decided pre covid no more cruises.

 

[Northern Spy]

Tom, you should sign up for the cruise and then not go and ask for a raincheck.

LOL [emoji106]

 

[Insequent]

Its probably about the right time to stop referring to "cruise ships" and call them for what they are: "virus incubators". They could best be used as vaccine rapid test stations for Phase X trials!

 

[Simi 60]

Its probably about the right time to stop referring to "cruise ships" and call them for what they are: "virus incubators". They could best be used as vaccine rapid test stations for Phase X trials!

Same could be said for shopping centres, office blocks, hotels, in fact any large structure that shares air-conditioning and pumps it around the complex.

 

[Insequent]

Same could be said for shopping centres, office blocks, hotels, in fact any large structure that shares air-conditioning and pumps it around the complex.

No, all of those you can choose to leave at any time you wish. And you are in control of exposure duration.

 

[firehoser75]

LOL [emoji106]

Unfortunately I have the partial "raincheck". Anyone want one???In reality I don't think they are transferrable either?

 

[BandB]

Its probably about the right time to stop referring to "cruise ships" and call them for what they are: "virus incubators". They could best be used as vaccine rapid test stations for Phase X trials!

Wifey B: Now that's an idea. Free cruise for vaccine tests. Half with vaccine, half with placebo, go enjoy and live like royalty while the test happens.

 

[BandB]

Same could be said for shopping centres, office blocks, hotels, in fact any large structure that shares air-conditioning and pumps it around the complex.

Every building is different but the shopping malls we're in had excellent systems and have upgraded them so the air inside the mall very close to the air outside.

Office buildings vary greatly, just like homes do. We're moving our corporate offices to a new building in January. Here's part of what is being done there and it's basically the same as the vast majority of the malls we're in.

-Centralized air flow system with MERV-13 (Minimum Efficiency Reporting Value) filters that retains more than 90% of common particles
-Venting and exhaust systems are strategically placed away from intake vents to ensure pollutants are not recirculated.
-HVAC coils fitted with UV bulbs during cleaning to kill bacteria and other microbial growths and ensure a cleaner air handler unit

On top of that, cleaning has been stepped up and includes things not previously concentrated on. Every door is now cleaned many times throughout the day with alcohol. All air vents are cleaned daily.

You are right on your warnings but they are being addressed where we are. Also mall rules for masks and separation.

I'd definitely suggest everyone think of their home systems.

The Pandemic is forcing us to rethink a lot of things. All doors in our new building are touchless as are all bathroom fixtures and dispensers. Hand sanitizer throughout. In stores we have changed so many things and many of these we'll never change back. We no longer use checkout counters. Those who do are using plexiglass. All sales people have tablets and can ring up your order wherever they're assisting you so no lines or crowding one area. We do 100% temperature checks. That's one that may end sometime but probably shouldn't. The equipment is there and paid for so why not continue. Obviously the percentage of shipping and pick up vs in store has changed. Much more paying by phone or without touching credit card.

It's interesting that before we never asked about the air quality of buildings. We should have, but didn't. Now, it's a top subject and buildings are promoting what they've done. Simon Property Group, as the leading owner of malls, have a Covid Manual that is extremely extensive.

 

[BruceK]

We got a refund from Celebrity by not cancelling when we could have,but waiting until as was inevitable, they cancelled. Once they were not providing the cruise, they had to refund. It may have changed.
Just when we thought it ok for NZers to come to Australia without quarantining, someone in Auckland NZ developed Covid, we are chasing 400+ NZers who came here to test them. When you think you have Covid licked, it`s still simmering somewhere. We`re testing sewage to identify risk areas where we then test heavily, though Covid remnants in sewage can be from old dead Covid shed from recovered infections.

 

[JLD]

How were they infected, that is the question.

The same way the President of the United States became infected.

Many folks falsely believe that having a negative Covid-19 test means you do not have Covid. What it really means is that you likely do not have Covid.

All tests have some rate of false negatives, even if that rate is relatively small. All it takes is one person who is infected with the virus, who has a false negative test result, and who does not exhibit symptoms for a period of time, to infect others.

Jim

 

[twistedtree]

The same way the President of the United States became infected.

Many folks falsely believe that having a negative Covid-19 test means you do not have Covid. What it really means is that you likely do not have Covid.

All tests have some rate of false negatives, even if that rate is relatively small. All it takes is one person who is infected with the virus, who has a false negative test result, and who does not exhibit symptoms for a period of time, to infect others.

Jim

Adding to this, a negative test only means that you don’t have Covid that has developed to the point where it’s detectable. It becomes detectable after about 3 days, which is around the same time you become an effective spreader. So you could have contracted Covid in the past three days and it’s not detectable, but you could be well on your way to becoming sick.

There is a subtle, but important difference between this and a “false negative”. A False Negative would be a detectable case that goes undetected. But a negative on an undetectable case is just the nature of the disease. It’s the difference between the effectiveness of the test, and what it’s able to test for.

We would all like a test that tells you whether you have contracted Covid at the time of the test, but I don’t believe such a test exists. All of the have a blind spot in the rear view mirror of a few days.

 

[SteveK]

Politics is not necessary in your answer.

You two doctors deserve a pat on the back.
However the question I asked remains unanswered. When you have a controlled environment such as this planned cruise taking known precautions, re testing every 4 days in a supposed sterile environment, the source should become identifiable.
In other words who gave the false test and is patient zero. One would think this is where some science might come into play to better understand what they are missing with false negatives.

Here in BC they do not waste a test if the subject shows no symptoms because it appears they understand that false negatives are possible, so why bother.

Does no one else wonder about the science? Incubation period is 5 days? Subjects were isolated and showed no symptoms prior to boarding. There should be a conclusive investigation that reveals the apparent unknown from this controlled situation.
Where did the bug come from on board?