Hurricane Otis - thoughts and aftermath

[mvweebles]

As a resident of Florida for 17 years; one that has evacuated three times to escape a hurricane; and as a re-inspired cruiser, I was particularly struck by Hurricane Otis.

We moved to Florida from San Francisco. My wife likes to say she'll take an Earthquake over a Hurricane anyday. It's instant, no notice. No pre-drama. I see her point - my favorite description of a hurricane is it being compared to being stalked by a homocidal turtle. It can be days of agony pinning hopes on strands of spaghetti.

Otis was different. It was not forecast as a hurricane, but rather a tropical storm. It was less than a day before it made landfall that a hurricane hunter plane flew into the storm and found it was rapidly intensifying - faster than almost any hurricane had ever intensified before.

A hurricane watch was issued 3pm Monday; and updated to a Warning at 3AM Tuesday. Tuesday morning, Otis was named as a likely Cat 1. At 2PM on Tuesday, it was announced that Otis would hit that night as a Cat 5. 36-hours from warning to Cat 5. What the hell do you do???? Not quite a homocidal gazelle, but definitely not a turtle.

For me and cruising, I have always counted on being able to have time to maneuver around really bad weather. On one had, I certainly would avoid anything resembling a tropical storm/depression. But still, the intensification is sobering. Definitely tells me to respect the hurricane seasons.

Peter

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/...ategory-5-hurricane-otis-devastates-acapulco/

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. mv. The (sobering) article mentions, what I interpret as, 12 hours lead time from designation as a 'cane to landfall. That ain't any time at all especially IF one has multiple assets (land home/dock/car/boat...) to prepare and deal with.

We're winter residents of FLL so have not experienced, first hand, any hurricanes but we DO have a boat and residence.

So far we have been able to maintain insurance coverage AND we have a pretty good hurricane plan in place.



As I said. Sobering article.

 

[ksanders]

The best thing you can do is to not be in the hurricane zone during the season.

As you know Ensenada is nice, I think Panama is probably also nice but I do not know.

Second best would be a hurricane hole.

Vicky and I were kidding that perhaps we were a bit paranoid by leaving the zone for summer. Then the hurricane hit La Paz and as luck would have it the winds favor'd my marina.

Next time that marina might be destroyed.

Nope... We are not taking a chance.

 

[mvweebles]

The best thing you can do is to not be in the hurricane zone during the season.

When I was delivering, professional captains (good ones - with solid credentials and resume) would move boats during Hurricane Season with the assistance of professional weather routers. I don't know if they would cut-off later in the season as Hurricanes get more extreme starting late August or so.

Overall, I agree - "Its not nice to mess with Mother Nature."

Peter

 

[PierreR]

I monitored Otis and could not verify that it hit above cat 1. What was the actual cat at landfall?

Hurricane Andrew intensified rapidly and hit as a cat 5. The tallest tree left was a 10' high stump.

 

[socalrider]

It is sobering indeed. I worry that insurance, not just for boats but for just about everything, will become untenable. I'm trying to wrap my head around the implications for that in our financialized civilization and struggling. Lenders won't lend without insurance. Nobody can build or own anything without loans. I'm working on some projects in TX and insurance costs have gone up 2-5x in the last 12 months in a lot of areas.

Edit: this just came up on Lattitude 38:

https://www.latitude38.com/lectronic/hurricane-otis-devastates-the-acapulco-waterfront/

 

[sunchaser]

SoCal
Boating in MX includes weather related risk. Especially during the early fall, a not unknown bad weather period. Twenty years ago when trying to decide where to berth our new boat FL and MX were nixed for several reasons with sporadic adverse weather a high on the list consideration.

Tropical storms and hurricanes keep the desert SW alive but with negatives for the Pacific coastal communities. I’m not preaching hindsight, just stating realities.

 

[Action]

And 25+ people died from Otis.

 

[26permacraft]

I can't even imagine going from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 in just 36 hours. Must've been nerve-wracking. Your comparison to a "homicidal turtle" made me chuckle, but I get what you mean about the uncertainty with hurricanes.

 

[O C Diver]

Don't know what to say about the West coast with regard to hurricanes. For me on the East coast, staying out of the hurricane zone during the season or having a secure haulout with tie down capacity, would be my two options. Can't imagine having my boat damaged and waiting weeks or months to get it secured.

Last November 9th hurricane Nicole hit near Stuart, FL as a Cat 1. As I was coming South in the AICW at the time, my safe harbor options were limited. Ended up spending the 7th or 8th in Stuart at anchor and then Crossing the Okeechobee waterway the next day to hunker down below the Moore Haven lock. Being able to cross Florida in a day or 2 is a nice option. Side note: Because of the volume of boats crossing the Okeechobee waterway, the Army Corps of Engineers extended locking till 10pm (I locked through at 9pm). Tip of the hat to the government employee who made the decision and got it done!

Ted

 

[mvweebles]

SoCal

Boating in MX includes weather related risk. Especially during the early fall, a not unknown bad weather period. Twenty years ago when trying to decide where to berth our new boat FL and MX were nixed for several reasons with sporadic adverse weather a high on the list consideration.



Tropical storms and hurricanes keep the desert SW alive but with negatives for the Pacific coastal communities. I’m not preaching hindsight, just stating realities.

Having grown familiar with both West Coast and Florida, the risks are different. Hurricane risk is less in Pacific Mexico, but there's no place to hide if NOAA paints a strip on your slip. Options are limited. Nothing even close to equivalent of running up the Okeechobee.

Nothing empiracle, but frequency and intensity in US southeast is greater, but there are options.

Neither is ideal.

Peter

 

[socalrider]

SoCal
Boating in MX includes weather related risk. Especially during the early fall, a not unknown bad weather period. Twenty years ago when trying to decide where to berth our new boat FL and MX were nixed for several reasons with sporadic adverse weather a high on the list consideration.

Tropical storms and hurricanes keep the desert SW alive but with negatives for the Pacific coastal communities. I’m not preaching hindsight, just stating realities.

Yeah, but the risk is changing. That's the scary part. I've lived on the W Coast and have family on the Pacific MX coast so quite familiar with the frequency of hurricanes over the years. But has there been a forecast miss of this magnitude in recent memory?

 

[Slo-Mocean]

Ian devastated so many of my friends lives . Many of my live aboard friends lost everything , boats , rvs , cars and were left with nothing. Had a good buddy living with us for 4 months after losing his 41 sailboat we had rebuilt head to toe over 3 years and he was a month from shoving off to world cruise .

I will not leave a boat within 30 miles from the coast either in or out of the water in a hurricane zone.

My 36 Islander Freeport sailboat tipped over and was holed on the hard 30 miles from the eye and my 53 foot 15000 lb semi trailer was flipped 40 miles inland.