San Juan’s for the winter

[JackConnick]

Starting 4am on Monday morning. I'm using Windy and find it pretty accurate with a pro account. Whats happening is that we have a series of big lows moving through with a lot of rain. The pressure gradiant is coming behind those. Unusual, but it looks like its going to be most of next week.

 

[SteveK]

Jack, Thanks. Now the week ahead is gusting to 25 Tuesday/Wednesday, looks like it will not be as bad as previous.

 

[luna]

I see where you got your numbers, thanks.

I don't use Windy that much and are far from proficient at forecasting.

I do know that Windy will display the results for a selected time period using different forecasting models. The above post's picture shows what the brain power behind the ECMWF Model predicts.

My free to use, non pro version of Windy says the point I randomly chose in Garrison Bay using the ECMWF Model will receive on Monday at 4 AM, winds of 24 knots. Not far off your Pro versions guess at 25 knots.

Changing only the Model to the GFS Model, and it says 15 knots. Using the ICON Model it now shows only 8 knots, which is about a third of the ECMWF's predicted wind speed.

Lets see what the reporting stations, if any, say on Monday AM..

 

[JackConnick]

Those don’t quite have the best resolution, not as localized in my experience. $20 a year for a windy subscription is the cheapest $ you spend IMHO.

What source of weather data Windy use?

Windy provides the option to choose from several different weather models. Below is a brief overview of all models which you can find on Windy. Global model...

community.windy.com

 

[JackConnick]

Jack, Thanks. Now the week ahead is gusting to 25 Tuesday/Wednesday, looks like it will not be as bad as previous.
View attachment 170219

Yeah it can definitely change, and change quickly. The main point I see is that it’s going to be very unstable.

 

[SteveK]

Yeah it can definitely change, and change quickly. The main point I see is that it’s going to be very unstable.

No Kidding, seems to getting calmer forecast, maybe the River coming is slowing it down.

 

[tiltrider1]

I use the PWG model on predict wind. It shows Garrison Bay as being fairly well protected with winds reaching 20mph. I think it’s a fine place for Granwood to hang out.

 

[JackConnick]

I use the PWG model on predict wind. It shows Garrison Bay as being fairly well protected with winds reaching 20mph. I think it’s a fine place for Granwood to hang out.

When? Early Monday morning?

 

[Mac2]

YouTube channel “Sailing Parlay Revival” just did an episode starring the diesel bugs in the fuel tank and all the fun involved.

 

[heysteve]

We're in Liberty Bay off Poulsbo now. ECMWF model shows 13 gusting to 31 and rain, GFS 8 to 17 and rain, NAM 13 to 33 no rain, HRRR 11 to 34 no rain, actual... 2 gusting to 4 and no rain.

 

[GrandWood]

We're in Liberty Bay off Poulsbo now. ECMWF model shows 13 gusting to 31 and rain, GFS 8 to 17 and rain, NAM 13 to 33 no rain, HRRR 11 to 34 no rain, actual... 2 gusting to 4 and no rain.

That’s what I keep seeing when I check predict wind, seems they over
Estimate the wind just about everytime.

Poulsbo is were we started out boating, bought the boat there. We stayed at the Liberty Bay Marina for about 1.5 years, cruising in and out from there. We call it our home port.

Downtown on the water is nice, although gets crazy crowded. Otherwise like any other town. Busy little place though. Most everything is easy walking distance.

 

[SteveK]

It is a beautiful day in the neighborhood as far as wind is concerned. Just another atmospheric river.

 

[tiltrider1]

When? Early Monday morning?

None of the models are accurate beyond 5 days out. Beyond 3 days is questionable.

In a much earlier post I warned that the San Juan’s get some very harsh winds. Trying to predict these winds timing and direction is extremely difficult. The winds can come down the straight and wrap around the islands. Making locations like Sucia a very dangerous anchorage. Winter winds can switch directions multiple times as velocity increases.

I think Garrison Bay is as good a winter anchorage as it gets. I on the other hand I won’t be spending any time at our Henry Island dock until March

 

[guy with a boat]

Here is an article on fuel additives from an actual expert:

Diesel Fuel Additives Part I – Editorial: Following Manufacturer’s Instructions | Steve D'Antonio Marine Consulting

 

[GrandWood]

I think Garrison Bay is as good a winter anchorage as it gets. I on the other hand I won’t be spending any time at our Henry Island dock until March

It’s great spot for us, dock to take the dog out, lots of hiking trails, the old British fort, English camp is interesting, we checked it out yesturday.

Shallow bay, so I can get lots of chain out on the bottom. Last night at 2:30 low tide, we had 10ft under us, when we came in just a bit after high tide we had 16ft. Roche Harbor is 2 miles by dinghy, myself and the dog cruised over a bit ago, just got back. Tested out my rain gear, and had to bail the dingy to get it to plane. Was actually quite a bit of fun, dog even got a bath outta it.

 

[JackConnick]

You'll like Stuart too. There are county roads/trail throughout the island and Prk. The road goes into the harbor in both Reid and Prevost, so landing there and walking up is cool. The hike out to Turn Point is spectacular. No water or electric, but Roche is close by.

 

[Mac2]

Don’t forget the dock at Westcott oyster farm.

 

[GrandWood]

You'll like Stuart too. There are county roads/trail throughout the island and Prk. The road goes into the harbor in both Reid and Prevost, so landing there and walking up is cool. The hike out to Turn Point is spectacular. No water or electric, but Roche is close by.

I’m just a little hesitant to cruise out there, it’s out there all by itself. Would like a sunny day with flat water type scenario. We are looking forward to checking it out. The hike to the light house we are definitly up for. They do have a year round pump out as well.

 

[GrandWood]

Don’t forget the dock at Westcott oyster farm.

Yep, my son loves oysters, I’ve never had um so don’t know if I would, not big on raw clams, so don’t know. But we are going to go over when the rain chills out at some point.

 

[JackConnick]

I’m just a little hesitant to cruise out there, it’s out there all by itself. Would like a sunny day with flat water type scenario. We are looking forward to checking it out. The hike to the light house we are definitly up for. They do have a year round pump out as well.

You can go through John’s Pass from Roche. It’s pretty protected. Not far. There’s rocks and some reefs to avoid, but follow your charts and you should be fine. I’d do it on an incoming tide so you have current with you through the pass.

 

[GrandWood]

I was just watching some videos of all the flooding going on around the sound, full rooted trees falling over into the rivers. There is going to be lots of logs and such everywhere I’d bet for sometime in the water.

 

[GrandWood]

Pic of Tyree marina at the end of the Skagit river in Tacoma

 

[luna]

It looks like the Skagit River is going to be troublesome yet again.
The Skagit County government is now saying that all residents in the 100 year flood plain should evacuate immediately. That includes La Conner, Burlington and parts of Mt. Vernon.

Access Skagit County

www.skagitcounty.net

It does not include the Tyee Marina which I think is near the mouth of the Puyallup River in Tacoma.

 

[GrandWood]

Afternoon all, got up this am to take dog to shore and the steps to the swim deck were gone. I had um fastened with some nice cool bronze deals, so I could pull um on and off and with the wind last night I guess the dinghy banging up against um knocked um off. Cruised around the bay with the hope of finding um, but no luck.
Had to lower the dog into the dinghy with his life vest, that was quite the show.
Had some marine plywood on board, so cobbled up a set of stairs that will have to do for now. When I go back to Friday harbor on the 22cd, I’ll pull um off, sand and stain um till I can get something else a bit better. There screwed down tight, not going anywhere.

Another lesson learned, secure every dang thing on the decks.

 

[SteveK]

nice cobbling

 

[GrandWood]

nice cobbling

Been known to bend a nail in my day.

 

[Mako]

Knowing that your dog likes grass you have a secret weapon. Bring a piece of sod along --- if he's territorial put another dog's pee on it (dastardly, I know!). He'll HAVE to pee on it then.

I wonder if spreading some thicker artificial turf on the swim platform would work

 

[CharlieO.]

Looks good to me

 

[GrandWood]

I wonder if spreading some thicker artificial turf on the swim platform would work

He can’t turn around on the swim platform, it’s to narrow

 

[luna]

Now you've gone and done it!

3 treads, 3 different widths. That is illegal in my country, yours likely as well!

If the risers are all different, even better!

Just don't let your insurer or the ABCY see it and wrap it in caution tape when not in use.