mvweebles
Guru
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2019
- Messages
- 7,774
- Location
- United States
- Vessel Name
- Weebles
- Vessel Make
- 1970 Willard 36 Trawler
I don't put a ton of stock into models for exact details.
I'd encourage you to reconsider this. You mention hurricane Andrew (1992) which spurred a ton of investment and development in weather forecasting and of course prompted massive changes in building codes to make structures survivable.
The accuracy of storm forecasting has improved 100x in the 32 years since Andrew specifically because of ability not only to capture data, but sift our the meaningless data to derive true indicators. The forecast for Helene was one of the most accurate I can recall. Milton landfall and intensity has not changed much since it was barely a breeze hovering off Yucatan. In 1992, NHC could only "see" three days in advance and even then, didn't have a lot of insight into true impact forecast.
Peter