Collapse of the Boating Market?

[Shrew]

Let's look at real numbers if we're going to compare the economy by the era:

NOTE: Numbers are yearly average for the US.

1946 Income was, on avg, 58% of home prices
Avg Household Income: $3,000
Avg Home Value: $5,100

1980: Income was, on avg, 44% of home prices
Avg Household Income: $21,020
Avg Home Value: $47,020

2025: Income is 19% of home prices
Avg Household Income: $78,500
Avg Home Value: $410,800

 

[Jklotz]

Still, either is a better investment than a boat.

A boat, IMHO, should NEVER be looked at as an investment.

 

[roguewave]

It’s an investment in your health

 

[hollywood8118]

Real estate doubling in 10 years doesn't make it an outlier for investment. That is about a 7% per year increase. Historically, stocks do better than that. The real estate I've bought and held for a long time - even here in California - has returned less than the S&P500 over the same period. Still, either is a better investment than a boat.

True... but you get the added bonus of living in the house as it appreciates.

Years ago I had a friend that was a stock broker that couldn't fathom spending money on a boat.. he called it a waste. I pointed out our family loved being on the boat and hanging out together. Fast forward 20 years and his wife left him, his kids and he have no relationship and all he has a big portfolio to show for it.
We have priceless memories( and we are still boating together and making more) !
HW

 

[DDW]

Well I own two houses and two boats. So I'm not exactly taking my own investment advice. But even though I am retired and considered well off, I couldn't afford the houses or the boats if I didn't do all the work on them myself.

There is another aspect to the boat market changes: it used to be you bought a tiny boat, then a little bigger one, then a medium sized, then maybe a larger one. Over a couple of decades. That no longer seems to be the case, as witnessed by the many threads in this forum. The new way is you decide you might like boating, and jump in with both feet as it were, to a 45' or 55' and wonder if you can find someone to train you and insure you. My first boat was 8', then 12', then 22', then 30', then 45'. In this day of instant gratification nobody wants to do that now. I think it partly explains the high turnover in boats. If you've never owned one or spent much time, how do you know you are going to like this new 50'? And when you learn you don't, how quickly is it put up for sale?

 

[BruceK]

Since we don't live in a totalitarian country, the govt (Fed) does not control mortgage rates directly, they control wholesale lending rates. How those borrowing costs get spread into retail products such as mortgages is a business decision. .

Reducing interest rates without respect to other factors would trigger a new round of inflation which saps discretionary income. I cannot think of a theory where that's good for the boating market.

Peter

I`d like to hear Powell`s comments on the above.
In Australia, I watch sales of Integrity brand boats, and see very little movement. in recent months Maybe the Australian market is not doing well either.

 

[Jklotz]

It'd be interesting to see some factual "just before" pandemic numbers vs current for the boat market. Higher interest rates are clearly going to have some effect, but I wonder if the pandemic hangover is finally over and we're just going back to normal.

 

[mvweebles]

Looping back, the boat market got over heated during COVID. Generational event. Boat market has always had its ups and downs with some peaks higher and some dips lower.

This is probably as simple as fiberglass lasts a long time. There are a lot of boats out there. They had a moment during COVID. That's over. Market will adjust but will take time.

TF'ers are generally middle range buyers. $200k-$700k with some higher and lower. If the luxury real estate market is an indicator, high end boats are doing just fine as @sunchaser points out. A friend with a $400k RV tells me the upper end of RVs are doing okay (not great) but the mid/lower end are cratering too.

It's a cycle. Bad time to sell.

Peter

 

[lwarden]

Ok, back to boats...
I sometimes wonder if there will be a time where there is steady demand in a certain price point and a lack of good used boats to fulfill the market. The lack of boats would be due to very high production costs and not enough folks at a high enough income level to buy them, use them and pass them down. This lack of boat would spurn a growing business of repurposing older boat hulls with newer interiors, electronics and propulsion systems.

The ideal repurposing would have a yard setup to take a few classic, popular production boats which were built in sufficient volume, say like Grand Banks. Then they would work out a system of refit using some volume production to help keep cost down. They could also buy engines, electronics and other hardware in larger lots to keep the price down. These boats would be like a restomod on classic cars. There are a number of Pacifica sportfishers who have been redone extremely well here in SoCal so there could be a market for this in the future.

 

[slowgoesit]

Folks, if you want to discuss the housing market, start another thread. Otherwise please stick to the boating market. A bunch of posts have been deleted for being off topic.
(wearing my mod hat)

 

[Adopo]

Well here is a possible regret: So regarding the boat market, I missed on this one, and must not have been serious as I should have made an offer and put down a deposit. This boat had been on and off the market for a few years, we were going to be in Coconut Grove December 22nd, so I told the broker I would see it then. Cruise on Explora 2-Check, Ritz Coconut Grove-Check, Inspect boat-Fail! Went under contract a few days before I got there, sea trialed and now sold. This boat sold in the beginning of Covid for 1.1mm or so, and after tons of updates (told several hundred thousand), and adding over 600 hours it was time to sell. This boat btw only had 660 hours on it when it sold the first time around the beginning of Covid, a very low number. That means the rest of the boat was not beat up from the multiple of hours spent on it above the 660 on the engines. And I am a fool for a canoe stern, and look at the ship like engine room...and..and..and.... Anyway, the asking was 1.45mm and I think it closed around 1.25mm. I think that was fair. Cool boat...broker claims he is selling boats.

 

[twistedtree]

As for boats I think two significant factors are at play right now. First is COVID kick back. A ton of people bought boats during Covid, and I expect a half ton of them are now done with boating, either because they did what they wanted to do, or they concluded boating isn't for them for any of a zillion reasons. So more used boats than usual now on the market, which depressed both new and used boat sales.

Second is general economic uncertainty. THere is so much saber rattling going on right now, and who knows what it will all lead to. Some possibilities are pretty ugly. When things are uncertain, people hold back on bigger expenses, especially ones that are highly discretionary like pleasure boats.

Other reasons too, like interest rates, but I wonder how many cruising boats are bought on credit rather than paid in full? Might make for an interesting poll.

 

[Adopo]

As for boats I think two significant factors are at play right now. First is COVID kick back. A ton of people bought boats during Covid, and I expect a half ton of them are now done with boating, either because they did what they wanted to do, or they concluded boating isn't for them for any of a zillion reasons. So more used boats than usual now on the market, which depressed both new and used boat sales.

Second is general economic uncertainty. THere is so much saber rattling going on right now, and who knows what it will all lead to. Some possibilities are pretty ugly. When things are uncertain, people hold back on bigger expenses, especially ones that are highly discretionary like pleasure boats.

Other reasons too, like interest rates, but I wonder how many cruising boats are bought on credit rather than paid in full? Might make for an interesting poll.

Yep might be time to buy a blue water sail boat with a deck gun and dept charges....but headed to Mecum tomorrow to see out late great friends Ferrari Collection cross the block. If you like cars watch that this weekend....we will see if world affairs cause pause in this market.

The Bachman Ferrari Collection - Mecum Auctions

Among the world's preeminent Ferrari collections, this assemblage includes pristine, low-mileage examples from early icons to modern supercars, and all will be offered at no reserve.

www.mecum.com

 

[twistedtree]

Yep might be time to buy a blue water sail boat with a deck gun and dept charges....but headed to Mecum tomorrow to see out late great friends Ferrari Collection cross the block. If you like cars watch that this weekend....we will see if world affairs cause pause in this market.

The Bachman Ferrari Collection - Mecum Auctions

Among the world's preeminent Ferrari collections, this assemblage includes pristine, low-mileage examples from early icons to modern supercars, and all will be offered at no reserve.

www.mecum.com

I think this will be an example of how the very top end of a market is almost always unaffected.

 

[Adopo]

I think this will be an example of how the very top end of a market is almost always unaffected.

Well...the top market has spoken. We saw the new greatest show on earth set many all time records lol. Our friends collection was around 114mm with a number of their cars hitting world records including a 17 plus million dollar Enzo. Just crazy and plenty of other big sales. Go here for results if interested, sort by high bid. You might have to register to see results.

Did anyone go to the St Pete biat show?

Kissimmee 2026 - The Worlds Largest Collector Car Auction

Mecum Auctions will showcase a stunning collection of 4,500 vehicles at Kissimmee 2026 at the Osceola Heritage Park in Kissimmee, FL on January 6-18.

www.mecum.com

 

[JRZ1]

Am in early stages of shopping and have been looking at both new and used. The new market is getting hurt not only by tariffs which you may be able to flag around but also the US dollar which has fallen throughout 2025. From 1.02 Euro/$ to the current rate of about 1.18/$ that's a pretty hefty price increase for US buyers. The ultra wealthy probably don't care but for someone stretching to buy a new boat it's a big impact. Price of the boat I was considering has jumped probably 30-40%+ from earlier in 2025 between new price increases for 2026 and the dollar falling throughout 2025. Probably going to be forced to look used at this point.

 

[JRZ1]

First world problems, I know.... If we don't get our financial house in order, the dollar is going to continue to fall IMO. Scary stuff.

 

[BruceK]

First world problems, I know.... If we don't get our financial house in order, the dollar is going to continue to fall IMO. Scary stuff.

That`s unfortunate,I thought the US economy was in fine shape due to tariffs.
Problem is, increased new boat prices lift the value of used boats. As new boat buyers migrate to used boats, as you plan to do.
I`m thinking of the share market saying: "A rising tide lifts all boats".

 

[mvweebles]

That`s unfortunate,I thought the US economy was in fine shape due to tariffs.
Problem is, increased new boat prices lift the value of used boats. As new boat buyers migrate to used boats, as you plan to do.
I`m thinking of the share market saying: "A rising tide lifts all boats".

The US economy is doing okay, at least for the demographic who can afford a boat. The issue @JRZ1 touches on is the current economic policy is focused on trade balance. Part of that strategy is to make US products more attractive on the global stage. The current administration is quite vocal in their support of a falling dollar because it makes US products cheaper so other countries will buy more. However, the knock-on effect is it makes foreign products more expensive for Americans (which is also welcomed by current policy).

The last statistic I saw was the US Dollar has lost 18% over the last year. This doesn't directly translate into an 18% gain/loss of buying/selling power as there are other factors, but it is a stark policy change. Every US administration since WW2 has at least shouted support for a strong dollar. Since boats are primarily foreign built, they are more expensive now than ever, especially with tariffs affecting many of the parts and components.

Not a political statement except this is current policy and it's intentional.

Peter

 

[SteveK]

Peter, how would you make American made as cheap as Chinese made, or at least palatable.

 

[mvweebles]

Peter, how would you make American made as cheap as Chinese made, or at least palatable.

Why would I want to? If the Chinese can make it better and cheaper, let them. Subsidies, protectionism, and price controls have a long, consistent, and lousy track record.

Peter

 

[Delta Riverat]

Yes. Huge tariffs are the only way to make USA labor = Chinese labor. They have a materials advantage too.

I know, reduce the USA minimum wage back to $5/hr. And government subsidies to boat builders.

Yeah, that should do it.

 

[BruceK]

Yes. Huge tariffs are the only way to make USA labor = Chinese labor. They have a materials advantage too.

I know, reduce the USA minimum wage back to $5/hr. And government subsidies to boat builders.

Yeah, that should do it.

Isn`t that how USA got tipping, discussed elsewhere.
Australia struggles to make anything competitively, due to wages, employment conditions, and energy costs.
We have several substantial boatbuilders: Riviera,Maritimo, Caribbean and Steber. Maybe others.I have no idea how they do it in the current economic climate, quite a feat I think.

 

[motion30]

with a declining sales market I don't see where any US builder will expand or new builders come into the market

 

[socalrider]

Sounds like we're in agreement on the basic math for new boats: Mostly foreign built so they get more expensive due to falling dollar plus tariffs.

Presumably, that would have the effect of pushing up used boat prices, at least for expensive almost new vessels that are being cross shopped with new builds.

Older used boats like the ones most of us own, under say $500k, I suspect will be less directly impacted as they're not being cross-shopped with $2+M new builds for the most part. A very small number of these boats might be bought by Canadians enjoying more purchasing power, to de minimus effect.

Bigger impact is likely from domestic macro-economic trends, consumer sentiment, boomers aging out, etc. Do we have hard evidence that the market is indeed crashing? I've heard anecdotally that boats aren't selling, but part of that might be due to the extremely tight supply of slips here in San Diego (big marina remodel in progress).

 

[whistlerxc]

Since the Canadian dollar has also seen a good devaluation- including against the US dollar, I do not see the Canadians flocking to the US for boats. Might be wrong. I also wonder if the 'tight supply of slips..." is a factor in deciding to purchase a boat or not, I know that is also a problem in the Washington and BC boating areas. Maybe it is also just a scary time financially and people will be reluctant to spend anything out of the ordinary that is not necessary. As mentioned earlier, perhaps the ultra wealthy will not care, but for us working stiffs or pension folks- the political and economic uncertainties are causing concerns when it comes to spending. I also note that today and yesterday's stock exchange are showing some disturbing down turns.

 

[sunchaser]

I’m not sure that economic policy cares about boat prices. Nor should it other than to wish I could but a new 2026 Fleming at a 2010 price point. Boating has never been low cost. For the serious and careful buyer some wonderful vessels are out there at a good price point, many never are listed.

Surprisingly to some, the US exports tens of billions of $ of stuff each month. A drop in the US dollar is not a negative to these folks. Per FRED, January 2025 the US trade balance was negative $128B. In October 2025 the balance was negative $29B..

This is a huge improvement. Unless you want a boat from China. Now, boats made in Turkey have a low Tariff of 15%, a country building great boats.

 

[FWT]

The value of the dollar vs another currency is a zero sum game. Winners and losers.

A low dollar makes our goods more competitively priced for export but makes imported goods more expensive.

A high dollar since WW2 was a piece of the Marshall Plan where the US actively worked to get foreign economies functional again, with the US being the buyer of goods made overseas. Makes sense until they mature and no longer are in need of life support.

 

[Adopo]

I think he's talking middle to lower market. Miami's here, advertising they have brought back a used boat section or brokers dock. Will be in that part of the world but for Cavallino Classic and Classics and Sports Sunday at Mar-a-Lago.

Cavallino Classic | The destination for all Ferrari enthusiasts

Discover the Cavallino world: events dedicated to the Ferrari universe and luxury cars. Visit our store and purchase tickets.

cavallino.com

2026 Classic and Sports Sunday

An exclusive opportunity to be part of this annual car show and charity brunch held at the private Mar-a-Lago Club on Sunday, February 15th.Classic and Sports Sunday features a 'light' concours of elegance in the picturesque setting of the historic Mar-a-Lago mansion. Collectors are invited to...

cavallino.com

 

[mvweebles]

No surprise in the video - Bad time to sell a boat. Good time to buy a used boat, especially if you're a savvy buyer with cash.

Wonder how the builders are doing? I realize nice examples of quality boats have traditionally sold well, but this market feels different. Given COVID buyers are probably ready to exit and take their losses, gotta wonder if distress sales have increased and wooed away erstwhile buyers of custom new builds?

Peter