Weird weather?

Greetings,
Is it just me or has the Atlantic weather been really strange this year? Take a look at hurricane Epsilon on NOAA. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085157.shtml?cone#contents
It started in the middle of the Atlantic. Didn't do much for the first week or so and NOW develops into a hurricane and heads off to Iceland.
This is not the first "wacky track" that's occurred and I've never seen such strange weather patterns (that I recall).

I think you know the answer, RTF. No, not climate change...Armageddon..! Arrrgh, arrrgh..! Well...it's possible I suppose...:lol:...nah, probably is climate change...

So if we have a year without any hurricanes, would that be a bad thing, would they associate it with climate change?

Ted

Greetings,
Mr. OC. Nope. A hurricane free year would be a good thing. Unfortunately, NOLA and parts of Texas have already had the heck beat out of them so far.
I suppose changing weather patterns and the regions they effect ARE part of the changing climate or are, in fact, changing climate. Just seems weird to me...

What’s occurring fits the modeling. In science when you can predict the future you logically conclude your understanding has advanced. Regardless of the spin from some made made climate change has occurred and we are feeling it’s impact. People confuse weather (local/short term) with climate ( regional/long term). Yes, the modeling is still imprecise but has improved dramatically. My area is modeled as wetter and warmer. The last few month have been warmer but not wetter. However the last 5 years have been wetter and warmer. Unfortunately for the west and southwest modeling has been spot on.
As a mariner what has really screwed me up is the shoulder seasons. Used to be pretty definitive. Now spring and fall are a total crapshoot. That period of relative calmness when the WAVES coming off Africa aren’t that bad and the winter storms are gone or hasn’t yet started no longer exists. Seems cyclonic storms can appear nearly any old time.

Ah yes, climate change. Better to call it 'cyclical weather patterns'. We can look at the tree ring and learn about wet and dry periods, good and bad growing seasons but, doesn't tell us a thing about the hurricane seasons. (dendrochronology)
We have reliable weather data for maybe 200 years but, other than tree rings, we dont have "squat" for the previous 1800 years and beyond.
All we can do is document the current weather as best we can so maybe future generations may make some sense out of it.
Until then, it gets cold in the winter and hot in the summer. Fall and spring have always been judged in hindsight. LOL
Anyone who thinks we can change the weather is a bigger fool than me.
Until then, we use technical terms such as "wetter than usual", "dryer than usual", "hotter than usual", "colder than usual" LOL
And if you ask a tribe of native Americans for a winter weather prediction, they will look at your wood pile. "Can never have enough wood"

Greetings,
Mr. H. "Seems cyclonic storms can appear nearly any old time." That's pretty well what I'm referring to. Historically, cyclones were generated off the west coast of Africa but Epsilon just seemed to pop up out of nowhere. There was another recent disturbance that formed just east of the Yucatan peninsula. Didn't grow into anything but it seemed significant enough to be noted by NOAA.


I'm of the opinion that the MAJOR modifier is the sun and that's currently in a minimum of the 11 year cycle which accounts for the weather but NOT the climate.

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,
Mr. H. "Seems cyclonic storms can appear nearly any old time." That's pretty well what I'm referring to. Historically, cyclones were generated off the west coast of Africa but Epsilon just seemed to pop up out of nowhere. There was another recent disturbance that formed just east of the Yucatan peninsula. Didn't grow into anything but it seemed significant enough to be noted by NOAA.
I'm of the opinion that the MAJOR modifier is the sun and that's currently in a minimum of the 11 year cycle which accounts for the weather but NOT the climate.

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I tend to agree with you..... but, people have to worry about something and the federal govt has to spend money on something and the media has to try and scare us with something.
At least 95% of the scary weather (for the US east coast) starts off the west coast of Africa near the equator.
We can not move the west coast of Africa nor the equator. At most we can say is, we have a better understanding of the weather patterns.

Greetings,
Mr. OD. I don't really think NOAA is doing anything other than reporting on what conditions are and what they are forecast to do. No fear factor IMO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane



Storms frequently form in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as far east as the Cape Verde Islands

Funny how perspectives change over time.

Remember when Big Tobacco had doctors and scientists to support their claim that smoking tobacco didn't cause cancer?

Big Oil actually supported the idea of human caused/facilitated climate change 30 years ago, but they have all modified their stances and are now denying it. They are even employing some of the same firms that the tobacco companies used to shape public opinion.

Don't believe me? Watch this short film from 1991 (by an oil company warning that the burning of fossil fuels will cause climate change) then start asking questions & finding your own answers before adopting those that are being spoon fed to you:

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,
Mr. OD. I don't really think NOAA is doing anything other than reporting on what conditions are and what they are forecast to do. No fear factor IMO.

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Plenty of scientists are getting govt grants to study the weather and to agree with the govt's desires. Disagree with the govt and they lose their funding.

I have no fear. I will die soon. Until then, I am busy creating a huge carbon footprint so after I die, they will notice I am gone.

psneeld said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane

Storms frequently form in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as far east as the Cape Verde Islands

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Okay, so instead of 95%, 90%?

More related to post #11:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/

Melting of alpine glaciers has uncovered artifacts showing that people travelled and mined there 9000 years ag. Now those same areas are being uncovered again and the evidence of people being able to exist there is revealed. Weather patters do change. We just dont know as much as we think we do.

https://earthnewsreport.com/2020/10...ts-are-emerging-from-melting-alpine-glaciers/

MurrayM, ANYTHING we do will change the earth's climate. There is no way around it.

bayview said:

Melting of alpine glaciers has uncovered artifacts showing that people travelled and mined there 9000 years ag. Now those same areas are being uncovered and the evidence of people being able to exist there is revealed. Weather patters do change. We just dont know as much as we think we do.

https://earthnewsreport.com/2020/10...ts-are-emerging-from-melting-alpine-glaciers/

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Shhhhh, those finding do not support the govt's and the "do gooders" desires.

Please look at the work of the intentional panel on climate change.

https://www.ipcc.ch/

Climate (not weather) can be studied by much more than tree rings. Gaseous constitutes of the atmosphere via coring the cap ice, sedimentary rocks and silts as well as myriad biologic materials. We know much about atmospheric gas, temperature and humidity going back tens of thousands of years.
Post #7 is untrue. Solar behavior is accounted for in climate models and does not explain what is occurring.
Post #6 is correct in saying we don’t know much about day to day weather for the past ~400 years ago but incorrect in saying that we don’t know about regional and global climate. This has been studied and is fairly well understood.
There’s a very small segment of climatologists who are MMCC deniers just like there’s a segment of creationism advocates and flat earthers. But as stated earlier when 99%+ of scientists agree with this paradigm shift and the modeling is predictive its logical to agree with the premise.
Again please read the progress made in the successive reports of the IPCC. Please read and analyze the supporting documents . Feel free to then come back and critique their conclusions. I gave one quick citation but there are many. As you read them please look at the funding agencies and understand as with cigarettes that it’s important to understand how funding creates bias. Personally although there’s a general distrust in all our institutions I believe that the academics and governmental agencies are least likely to be biased. Also the scientists are least likely to misconstrue what’s going on.

and it was reported, during the 90s we had a mini-ice age.
I was in Michigan attending MSU during the 70s. I can honestly tell you, winters were really cold. LOL

OldDan1943 said:

and it was reported, during the 90s we had a mini-ice age.
I was in Michigan attending MSU during the 70s. I can honestly tell you, winters were really cold. LOL

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That is science at work. Someone uncovers some evidence. posits a theory, and others will follow that trail of crumbs and it will live or die depending on whether the rest of the scientific community agrees or not.

The coming ice age theory withered and died. Human caused climate change has legs.

OldDan1943 said:

MurrayM, ANYTHING we do will change the earth's climate. There is no way around it.

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Then why not make the choice towards a less destructive change?

OldDan1943 said:

Okay, so instead of 95%, 90%?

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May be it would be written that way it it were that large of a percentage.


True many Caribbean and Gulf lows are enhanced by African "waves" but certain;y not all or where the hurricane originates...otherwise they WOULD all start over there if conditions were right.


Last year only 4 of 18 storms would I consider near the African coast...


7 out of 15 in 2018....


The first 6 this year were not from Africa either...and probably others but you get my point.




https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2019.png

Will note in my country the government is not supportive of the reality of MMCC. Still our domestic scientists are.
Please note tenured professors have a job regardless. That’s what academic freedom is all about and the reason for tenure existing.
Please note the scientists working for governmental agencies are lifers (like in the service) and proceed to do their work through multiple administrations.
Please note there as not been a dramatic increase in the number employed climate scientists. There has been an increase in a multidisciplinary approach. This multidisciplinary approach has blossomed in all the sciences-biology, medicine, chemistry, and even physics.
Most deniers present belief. Can’t argue against belief. Can only present what’s known and unknown. Climate when viewed globally is close to a closed system. We know we don’t know all the factors. But we do know we know most and the most significant ones. As with all our sciences we much yet to know but that in no way discounts what we currently know. The overwhelming evidence points to MMCC.
On a risk/benefit acting in accordance with that premise carries little risk and great benefit. Acting in accordance that that premise is wrong carrries great risk. Forget Al Gore’s smarminess. Look at the source documents then decide.

MurrayM said:

That is science at work. Someone uncovers some evidence. posits a theory, and others will follow that trail of crumbs and it will live or die depending on whether the rest of the scientific community agrees or not.

The coming ice age theory withered and died. Human caused climate change has legs.

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Even breathing will change the climate. Too many people?
Want to be cool in the summer? The A/Cs are pumping heat into the atmosphere or water.
Want to be warm in the winter? Takes energy to power our furnaces etc.

From the Atlantic article quoted in post #14:

But experts are still piecing together Exxon’s misconception puzzle. Last summer the Union of Concerned Scientists released a complementary investigation to the one by InsideClimate News, known as the Climate Deception Dossiers (pdf). “We included a memo of a coalition of fossil-fuel companies where they pledge basically to launch a big communications effort to sow doubt,” says union president Kenneth Kimmel. “There’s even a quote in it that says something like ‘Victory will be achieved when the average person is uncertain about climate science.’ So it’s pretty stark.”

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Underlined bit mine.

I find it interesting that the climate change deniers here on TF also include Covid-19 denialists.

People live in echo chambers these days. I use Google as a search engine and have to put "fox news" into my searches because Google's algorithm will never, ever show me a fox news story in its search results based on my usual searches.

Point being, I like to have a balanced view of opinions. Reading articles from other countries is an even better idea.

I would like to ask those who are denialists...did you arrive at that understanding based on your own balanced research, or are you being led around by the nose and don't even know it?

Electric cars are not the answer. They draw the recharge energy from distant power plants. I do drive a hybrid because of the increase 'gas milage' and the price was right. SMILE
Not to worry, after I die everything will get better.
Sort of like when you stop working, 'those you left behind' will attempt to blame you for everything that has gone wrong or because of your actions, everything that goes wrong in the future. LOL

OldDan1943 said:

...
Sort of like when you stop working, 'those you left behind' will attempt to blame you for everything that has gone wrong or because of your actions, everything that goes wrong in the future. LOL

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Actually, I worked to make positive changes in my workplace, and will be leaving it knowing those who follow me will have better jobs because of it.

Much like finding a wilderness cabin on a hike; you leave it in better shape than when you found it. Try to follow that rule in all aspects of Life, and the world will be a better place.

MurrayM said:

Actually, I worked to make positive changes in my workplace, and will be leaving it knowing those who follow me will have better jobs because of it.

Much like finding a wilderness cabin on a hike; you leave it in better shape than when you found it. Try to follow that rule in all aspects of Life, and the world will be a better place.

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I too tried. When last I heard, they never blamed me for anything. Of course, all the people I worked with have since retired too.

OldDan1943 said:

Ah yes, climate change. Better to call it 'cyclical weather patterns'.

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https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2949/...l-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/

from the comments: "Climate changes as the result of a forcing or forcings. Scientists have carefully evaluated all possible forcings. No natural forcings can explain the warming we have experienced recently. Yes, natural variability always exists in addition to the warming that is occurring due to human activities, but overall Earth should be cooling very slightly according to natural forcings."

MurrayM said:

That is science at work. Someone uncovers some evidence. posits a theory, and others will follow that trail of crumbs and it will live or die depending on whether the rest of the scientific community agrees or not.

The coming ice age theory withered and died. Human caused climate change has legs.

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Exactly. With one slight addition. A hypothesis is posited. A theory is what results after testing over and over again and is supported by a great deal of peer reviewed evidence. Gravity is a theory and continues to be tested and supported. If one can test and come up with different results then anyone can challenge the theory. That's what is the best part scientific method. The openness and ability to change and evolve over time based on testing and evidence.

-tozz