Lockdown in Australia

The attached graph is showing good progress in regards to declining new cases in Australia.

However, lockdown conditions continue to be tightened, with authorities fearing outbreak clusters around the Easter holiday period in particular. Conditions are set at State level with some regions also adopting additional rules. Here in Queensland there is a neat graphic setting out reasons that you may use to leave home. NSW and Victoria have perhaps tighter restrictions. Police are fining people for breaches.

M boat is in a marina that is only 3.5km from home, so from now on if I go to it I will need to use a bicycle (exercise exemption) or risk having to explain why I am driving and a possible fine. IF I do go it will be intermittent and to spend a night aboard while catching up on some R&M. My finger has 7 liveaboard boats on it so I don't expect me overnighting would be an issue. With continued progress I am hoping for some easing of restrictions towards the end of the month, enough to enable me to cruise into Moreton Bay for a few nights. We'll see.

Looks good, but keep it up.

NSW State has promulgated some rules via Roads and Maritime. I can`t copy them to post but "recreational boating" and "overnighting on board" are not regarded as essential reasons for leaving home. Fishing seems to be exempted, as is attending a boat for purposes of repair or servicing. Make what you can of that, though I`m not sure we should be looking for loopholes.
Like Insequent, I`m hoping for some relaxation of the restrictions. I would like to buy fuel on my next(first)outing, so some contact with others is unavoidable.

For the Easter break our normal family cruise into Moreton Bay was cancelled as it seemed to be the right thing to do. Then on last Wednesday I saw a report in the paper that said police had 'intercepted 500 boats' during the previous 7 days (including Easter) and reminded them that there was a 100m exclusion zone around North Stradbroke Island. No mention of fines, or any outcry about people being irresponsible by being out in their boats.

So I decided that I would go out on Thursday for some fishing, an allowed activity. With forecast temps to be in the low 30's °C it was going to be more pleasant than being at home anyway. As it was a northerly, and with 15-20kn northerly forecast for a couple of days, I decided to go to Peel Island. It is one of the better places to be in such winds. On the way down boat traffic seemed about normal for this time of the year, which was bit of a surprise.

I was expecting a few boats to be there (perhaps 15 or so?) as it was still school holidays and I had noticed on Marine Traffic about 15 pink blobs there at Easter. Much to my surprise there were over 50 boats there (about 20 pink blobs on Marine Traffic) with regular arrivals of more boats late into the day. There is plenty or room, so no distancing issues. However, I'm hoping that many will head home over the weekend for back to school and/or work. But who knows, with home schooling in Qld for Term 2 and many people working from home the larger boats just might linger on the Bay for some time!

Our new covid-19 case increases are low, and percent of case classed as recovered is steadily increasing. Both good trends. And deaths still relatively low at just over 60. Or just over 40 if Ruby Princess ones are excluded.

An easing of restrictions is likely soon, before month-end I think although the official line is that 3 key things need to be in place first and that it might need 4 weeks for that to happen. This is prudent, but I expect there will be a great deal of pressure to ease some things within a week or so. At lest one football code, which appears to have been amazingly mis-managed and pretty much broke is getting very noisy about re-starting their playing fixtures.

But the key is not to do too much of this too soon. Singapore is a good example of how quickly it can get away from you if you go too far too soon. But hopefully we can ride it out without major outbreaks and boating, at least in Queensland, will remain possible.

For those in the US who may be confronted with easing of restrictions I can but wish you good luck. On most indicators you are still n fora very scary time for a few months yet.

I`m in the "don`t get overconfident" camp, but even so things look way better than I hoped they might be. However, in NSW we just had a nursing home disaster, a lot of infections via an asymptomatic staffer. And in Tasmania there are multiple hospitals in closedown and cleanup, being reopened by military personnel as the staff are quarantined.
It`s very sad to see what is happening in USA. But tomorrow it could still be us. Stay strong, and safe.
There are some boats going out of our marina area, and a guy I spoke to in the Whitworths Chandlery line up for door service says multiple boats are passing his waterfront home. This weekend I look like having to travel to collect a dinghy I bought, couriers are disinclined to pick up/deliver to private homes. Hope I can do it without being sent home or fined, we will take all the precautions we can.
Talk is of another 4 weeks at current restrictions and review. Prime Minister says we are shooting for suppression but might hit eradication. Good to be positive(except to covid19).
And I just heard that some private surgical(elective) hospitals which were cleared out with surgery suspended to be available for an overflow of Covid19 patients from Govt hospitals are looking at a resumption of surgery. We shall see, let`s not get ahead of ourselves.

Hi Bruce,

I really feel your frustration - the excitement of having a new boat but, because of lockdown, not being able to use her. Did you get any time on the water before the shutters came down............... and remember the old adage - unless you post pictures, it never happened

I must admit, my wife and I have been doing a sanity run to our boat every now and then - picking up a couple of coffees on the way and spending time sitting in the cockpit watching the fish jump in the marina - -my prepared story if stopped - maintenance check on the boat.

Brisyboy said:

Hi Bruce,

I really feel your frustration - the excitement of having a new boat but, because of lockdown, not being able to use her. Did you get any time on the water before the shutters came down............... and remember the old adage - unless you post pictures, it never happened

I must admit, my wife and I have been doing a sanity run to our boat every now and then - picking up a couple of coffees on the way and spending time sitting in the cockpit watching the fish jump in the marina - -my prepared story if stopped - maintenance check on the boat.

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No time on the water at all. We helped the delivery guys dock, we`ve done cleaning and a little work, that`s it. I will try to post some pics, it really is an updated IG 36,many advances in the 25yrs between builds. I keep taking the camera when we visit but forget to take pics. We are picking up a new (? temporary) Island Inflatables 2.6M dinghy tomorrow, hope the Police don`t pick us on route, they can scan your rego for your home address.

Greetings,
Mr. BK. IF stopped, plead insanity. You ARE a boater.

You bloody Australians!

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/arti...6QChJRvV0xidaRNeo_PcmrpwtatJaW1gIqizRcSUKqTWs

"Quarantine is when you restrict the movement of sick people. Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people.

ancora said:

"Quarantine is when you restrict the movement of sick people. Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people.

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In this case how do you tell the difference?

Greetings,


quar•an•tine kwôr′ən-tēn″, kwŏr′-►

• n.
  A condition, period of time, or place in which a person, animal, plant, vehicle, or amount of material suspected of carrying an infectious agent is kept in confinement or isolated in an effort to prevent disease from spreading.
• n.
  An action resulting in such a condition.

Bolding is mine. I ask the same question as Mr. m. "In this case how do you tell the difference?" given the dearth of testing.

Well Mr.Ancora, at present, what we are doing appears to be working. Despite 10% of infections and 1/3rd of deaths coming from an American ship. There is no place in pandemic control for ideology, the virus won`t understand it let alone feign interest in it.
I`m going to do a volte-face and applaud the US reopening various states and abandoning isolation. New York seems most affected so why not there to relieve the citizens of the unpleasantness of isolation and mental misery and loss of personal freedom.I hope it works out well, and I do mean that.
However it turns out, it will be interesting and instructive. Our borders are reasonably sound and protected so except in economic and sympathy terms,I hope we are insulated. Canada and Mexico I`m not so sure about but hey, Mexico doesn`t matter anyway.
Let it rip, let`s see how it goes. Well, I hope. My best wishes to all.

Greetings,
An answer to my post #12 please. What's that? Crickets...

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,
An answer to my post #12 please. What's that? Crickets...

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A tosser tossed a pebble in the water, and hid.

I found this from NSW Roads and Maritime about boat usage:
https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/maritime/covid-19-update.html
The sailboating vs powerboats position is hard to justify. In our cruising grounds both types of boat are used in similar ways. Often the sails don`t see fresh air, and while there is exercise in some forms of sailing, motoring off the marina to Pinta Bay (now there`s somewhere we`re missing) is not different to identical activity with a powerboat.
But there it is. Hopefully boat use gets equated with holiday home use when the restrictions get reviewed in light of very welcome reduced infection rates.

BruceK said:

A tosser tossed a pebble in the water, and hid.

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it seemed he did, indeed.

A Virgin Goes Down

Virgin Australia Airlines is going into Voluntary Administration. One of 2 national and overseas operating full service airlines. Before Covid, it was indebted $5Bn, management had been questionable for years,the share price had tanked. It appeared to be hanging on by its fingernails,cash flow removed it could not continue to operate.

It sought $1.4Bn Au from the Govt. The Govt was willing to subsidize and support daily operations but not the massive debt. When it needed $, its foreign airline shareholders, Etihad, Singapore, Chinese airline groups Nanshan and HNA each holding around 20% of shares, and Branson holding a further 10%, were nowhere to be seen.

Early days yet, private equity is circling,and there are other possibilities. Australia can reliably support about 1.5 major airlines. The "1" is Qantas, the ".5" slot has had several occupants of which VA is the most recent. We need competition to keep Qantas in check. Either something will rise Phoenix like from the VA ashes, or the vacuum left will draw in a fresh player. Air New Zealand which bailed out of VA a few years back at over 5x the last share price, has been mentioned. It has its own problems and, as the last owner of Ansett Airlines before it failed, may not be keen to re-enter the fray.

Since Australia is going into fall, it'll be interesting to see if there is a resurgence of CV-19 cases.... Lets hope not

Ka_sea_ta said:

Since Australia is going into fall, it'll be interesting to see if there is a resurgence of CV-19 cases.... Lets hope not

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Appreciate the thoughts. We are urged to vaccinate for flu, plenty of vaccine available. Don`t want CV19+Flu together.Our CV situation has really surprised me. Almost too good to be true. 12 new cases yesterday, Australia wide. Authorities are going after outbreaks and tracing contact exposures. There is a phone app coming to help identify contacts (big brother stuff but warranted in serious times). If we keep chasing it down, our situation may hold. But we remain in danger of resurgence.

I just looked at a graph. Looks like we have an upwards tick occurring. Just when we are contemplating easing lockdown,in the knowledge it will lead to more infections.
It comes off a low base, and there are cluster explanations. Like staff at a Melbourne meat "processor",and the Newmarch aged care home in Sydney where a second source of infection is suspected and the elderly residents are dying. Even so, it`s a worrying increase.
We must not lose our resolve or it may end badly for us too. Ideas of letting foreign students back in to fund Universities are just silly, when discussions with New Zealand say there is a long way to go before we can creates an ANZ "bubble" to allow no quarantine travel between the two countries.

An Update; What will happen?

Australia has begun easing restrictions. 8 new cases yesterday Aust. wide(pop 25M),8000 tests and no new infections in NSW state. 97 total deaths to date. About 50 in hospital, <20 on ventilators. Around 700 current unrecovered cases Aust wide out of just under 7000 infections total identified.
Will it hold as we relax. Look at South Korea: someone infected goes clubbing and infects many. Any country is a cough away from a major outbreak, no matter how good it looks. Some outbreaks are thought inevitable. Perhaps the tracing phone App will help chase them down.
One well run aged care facility did well and is now disease free, about 5 died, some who tested infected had no symptoms at all, some were mild, much like the general population. Another, much less well run,has 16 dead and is still managing infections.

Some other countries are approaching the disease quite differently, some are decreasing restrictions in tandem with rising infections. How will that turn out? How will our situation change, as we progress into a carefully staged and stepped relaxation. Complacency is our greatest risk.

Having done well so far in flattening/kicking the hell out of the curve, we are easing. Quite properly. However, one mistake can be costly, as South Korea shows. One infected non compliant quarantined person visits a nightclub,and the numbers skyrocket.
It seems we are about to do something silly. We just restarted Rugby League Football. Just players, televised, no fans present.Obviously players are in very close physical contact, with each other and with the opposing team.It`s not a gentle sport. Now we are about to let licensed Clubs, football clubs included have, in my state of NSW, up to 500 members and guests on premises, with distancing required.
Some players have already been prosecuted by law or their Clubs or both for non compliance with distancing, incl one for lying about it, for off field activities. These are young fit testosterone laden highly paid young men,unsurprisingly some are less than responsible and can find trouble on and off the field.
The Clubs are large alcohol, food, and gambling establishments. The "Club Industry" is a powerful lobby group from which Govt. collects considerable gambling taxes. Most gambling is via "poker machines".The football clubs sponsor and support their players. I do not trust the players or the Clubs to comply. I hope it works out but but I fear we are embarking on a risky path.

Australia and New Zealand are edging towards a 2 country travel bubble.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...oronavirus-state-border-restrictions/12338458
Not without difficulties but getting more likely. NZ has no known Covid cases and Australia is getting very few new cases, those we find are usually overseas arrivals held in quarantine.
Not sure how I feel about a world where NZ is my only overseas destination after years of world travel, but better than nothing, and stunningly beautiful, especially the South Island where the Alpine scenery beats much of Europe. Flights, or cruises, I wonder. Fly into Queenstown NZ for a spectacular approach.
The issue in OZ at present is, we`ve challenged Covid 19, hard, with 20,000 plus people in a protest march. If we weather that, we`re in good shape. If not, we`re in trouble again.
It would be(or is already) an odd truncated world we`re not used to. But with scary rising infection and death rates in so many countries, pulling up the drawbridge of ANZ looks right for now.Other than helping with developing a vaccine, we cannot help or persuade other countries to different courses of action. Fortress Australia & New Zealand, it may be.

A Sydney Update

We`re fortunate to have the ability to deal with a "mystery vector" case like this. Especially with our stand by capacity to trace. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05...ses-restrictions-extended-to-may-17/100126708
Put simply, a Sydney man had symptoms and tested +ve. But,he`d been nowhere near arrivals quarantine, or borders. And his strain traced back to a US arrival with Covid in quarantine. Conclusion: there is an infectious intermediate link, or links, circulating. Thus precautions are in place. Other States are restricting entry, and for NSW State the "AU/NZ no quarantine travel bubble" is suspended.
Worse still, our man was very active and visited lots of business premises, restaurants, etc. We all know where he went, it`s published as a public warning to others. So far, amazingly, only his wife tests +ve.
Sooner or later there could be a big virus escape from quarantine as citizens/residents return from overseas. A bungled temporary ban on arrivals from Covid ridden India looks like morphing into a dangerous level of arrivals from India as the Govt. backpedals and tries to redress/refute claims of racism etc etc.

The 'missing link" above, remains unidentified. If there is one. Or there could be an unrecognized vector operating.
Our "quarantine on arrival" system dictates the State people fly into does the quarantining. All being well,after 14 days they are released. If from interstate they can return there freely.
Now someone after quarantine in SA went home to Victoria, and became sick. There`s a nasty little trail to trace. And, is it a late developer, or really an infection acquired "in the safety of" quarantine?
One day,a quarantine stuff-up like this is going the create real problems for us. Despite some tweaks, hotel rooms were not designed to provide isolation any more than cabins on cruise ships.

Despite bringing in a Federal budget a drunken sailor celebrating his return to port after 6 months at sea would see as profligate, still no funds allocated for purpose built quarantine premises to replace hastily adopted hotel rooms devoid of tourists by virtue of our closed borders. A good idea at the time, but repeated virus escapes(plus the odd "guest" escape)says we need to do better. Especially with the proportion of +ve returnees expected shortly from Covid ravaged India; it`s intended they go to Howard Springs Facility in the Northern Territory, probably our safest,but there may well be overflow.
Virus escape from quarantine is a huge red flag danger to our outstanding success fending off the virus. It needs improving, now.

Greetings,
Mr. BK. Maybe time to re-open some of your old gaols.

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,
Mr. BK. Maybe time to re-open some of your old gaols.

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Whoa! The propensity of a gaol to transfer a virus between inmates by a range of means would rate A1+++ on any scale.
But somehow we have to protect the 26M in Australia from the Covid ravages a relatively small number number of infected returnees could import.
Australia declared "Pandemic" before the sleepy WHO got round to it and began protective measures.
Here`s another old gaol that might take your fancy, definitely very "airy" as it stands, an extraordinary place to visit. Long inhabited by the ghosts of prisoners kept in most inhumane conditions, the Port Arthur Massacre years ago added to the ghost population, as well as acting as a gun control catalyst.

RTF, here`s a good example of how "hotel quarantine" can fail. The results of this failure are still developing and unknown. Probably not, but could be, "the big one".
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05...tel-guests-told-to-quarantine-again/100135182
And another one, also a escape from South Australian "quarantine", into adjacent Victoria State. Less "quarantine", more State operated virus spreading operation.
We`ve done too well to let stuff ups like this undo our success. "Quarantine" has to get better.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05...ert-man-covid19-in-hotel-quarantine/100135034