Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

Of course it can, and will survive. Much to the chagrin of many T.F. members and contributors. A recent thread showed that many, if not most T.F. members hated everything about the cruise ship industry.

Today a news release states that nearly a thousand people have been exposed to the Corona virus on a Princess liner. Will this news and other recent bad news about the cruise industry "sink" the industry? Probably not, they simply have too much invested.

I'm sure there will be major changes in the industry though. Probably deep discounts, Laid up ships, new health provisions, changes in schedules, etc.

Would I get on a cruise ship today ? Not if you gave me a free ticket and held a gun to my head!!

pete

It will survive, but there will be fewer companies with fewer ships if demand drops and stays down. The big question is will demand pick back up in a year or two as the world learns to live with the Coronavirus. Which companies are financially strong enough to weather the storm: I certainly would not want to be a company that was in the midst of an expansion, bringing expensive new ships online that I now cannot fill. Especially if that expansion was funded with borrowed money.

As the saying goes: “No one knows you lost your trunks until the tide goes out.” Well, the tide is going out now.....

Fewer companies? The big three already control nearly 75% of the market world wide!

Tator

Answer: yes, but some restructuring of the industry is likely. ... I predict no new cruise ship orders for some time. A lot of industries and economies will be seriously affected.

Incidentally, I was on the now-quarantined Grand Princess from Jan. 27 to Feb. 11. Developed a cough mid-cruise but no aches or fever. Coughing during late winter is common for me.

I have been wondering if the losses are covered by insurance or partially by insurance.

MP, you must have a strong immune system.
We cruised the Star Princess on a 15 day cruise to the Hawaiian Islands departing 4 December from LA.
I lasted ten days before contracting an upper respiratory infection and my wife on the 14th day. We got well after about two weeks after seeing our Doctor once we got home.The number of Asian passengers gives us pause that maybe we lived thru the Corona infection.
We heard Star is being sold to an Asian company which did not surprise us. We saw many passengers wearing masks, the huge buffet allowed the thousands of passengers to handle the serving tongs, spoons, etc. Elevators always jammed to capacity, the jerky motion caused by the stabilizers made it hard not to touch the handrails. We tried to stay topsides or on our balcony as much as possible and hand washed, used hand sanitizer constantly. I fear the stateroom ventilation system served many staterooms so air borne germs probable circulated.
We will never cruise again on a foreign flagged and manned ship.

All cruise ships are foreign manned except those on American rivers.

My brother and his wife just yesterday boarded a 2.5 month cruise around the world. They boarded in New Zealand and among the ports of call are some in Italy.

I'm with Pete: "Would I get on a cruise ship today ? Not if you gave me a free ticket and held a gun to my head!!"

I tried to talk them out of the cruise but they are going anyway. IMHO there isn't enough tea in China to get me on a cruise ship.

As to whether or not the cruise industry will survive, I have some doubts. We took a cruise in Europe on Viking a couple of years ago. They must be hurting because we get a cruise booklet from them about every other day.

My wife cancelled a Viking Rhine River cruise a few weeks ago after freaking out about the corona virus. It was the last day of the $100/pp cancellation fee for us (120 days before sailing) and the next day was going up to $1000/pp.

Since then she has gotten multiple emails from Viking exorting her to book again. But now air fare is free (worth $1000/pp) and $200/pp of booze is free, plus they will allow cancellations up to 24 hours before sailing for NO cancellation fee.

Does that sound desperate or what?

David

Woodland Hills, exactly right, I might take a chance on a USA inland river cruise, with expectations our health standard requirements would be required.

3 cruise ships have diverted from Asia to cruise around the Australian coast.
What are the chances of no one developing CV on an 18 day cruise with 3000 pax and 1000+ crew? Low I`d say. Disembarkation could be difficult.

My old High School just got closed for 14 days after a student came down with CV. It`s close to an aged care place with an outbreak. Not looking good.

I suspect that the industry will survive (after a huge downturn and losses), but some Lines will not. We are currently booked for back to back Caribbean cruises in November, but will most likely cancel. I agree completely, would not go on any cruise for the next while.
If cruising does survive, I expect we will see some large changes to many of their operational procedures.

My wife has always wanted to go on a cruise but I always said no. I don’t want to be on a ship with thousands of people that I have no control over. Before it was no, now it is absolutely hell no.

The Covid 19 virus has mutated at least once already. Pretty hard to vaccinate against a moving target. This just might be the new normal, where many more people will die every year, especially those in their retirement years...exactly the people who take cruises the most.

I always liked going on cruise ships. I did catch a nasty norovirus on board once. It had me out for 24 hours. Even so, I'd go again, once we know more about this particular Corona virus. Maybe fares will be low for a while?

Anyway, the secret to enjoying a cruise is to be a contrarian. During the day, the lemmings are packed like sardines around the pool, working on their sunburns. I have the run of the air-conditioned inside of the ship.

At night, the lemmings are packed into the bars and theaters. I have the whole deck to myself to watch the stars and look out over the ocean. Day or night, I can sit on my private balcony.

I don't try to over-do it with too many shore excursions. I pick a few I want to try, and for the rest, just wing it on the day of. Explore on my own, or take a local cab around.

It's convenient to wake up in a new port (or at sea) every morning, and have all your meals taken care of. And it's one of the best values in all-inclusive vacations.

I really don't like crowds. You won't find me in a sports stadium, park, or arena. Did one trip to DC to participate in a rally at the Capitol, never again. Have gone by a few cruise ships at their home dock, loading or unloading. Just couldn't imagine being trapped on one. Have visions of the Twin Towers and the planes, no place to run - no place to hide. I consider the airport and the flying sardine cans, barely a tolerable necessity.

Think they should tie the cruise ships to the dock and use them as quarantine hotels / hospitals.

Ted

As soon as there is a vaccine that is cheap and widely available

Benthic2 said:

As soon as there is a vaccine that is cheap and widely available

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That works until the next coronavirus variant springs up. It is a never ending pattern. New virus, new vaccine, newer virus, newer vaccine.........

David

DavidM said:

That works until the next coronavirus variant springs up. It is a never ending pattern. New virus, new vaccine, newer virus, newer vaccine.........

David

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That's my guess, just like the flu, but different.

I heard one expert describing it from the viruses point of view. It's not in the viruses best interest to romp from initial infection to incapacitating or killing its host too quickly. Mutations to the virus which let the host wander around infecting more people without incapacitating or killing them is a much better plan.

Hopefully it won't add too much to the annual deaths to flu.

I'm a hater. But that aside, I think I have some insights. I started watching both the industry and the virus closely during the Pacific Princess incident, and bought July put options on CCL on Feb 10. I've been watching more closely ever since.

I had a bunch of scenarios a month ago, and things have tracked to my most pessimistic ones pretty consistently since then. I updated my scenarios for the cruise industry yesterday, thinking about what the stock bottom look like. I'm not in any hurry to unload the options as a result. It's a long way off I think.

My worst case scenario had called for a progressive shutdown of the industry, maybe to 20% of capacity, but maybe short lived. I never imagined it to be a decisive death blow.

But now? My best case scenario is pretty bleak. The longer the industry - which is really just 3 companies - tries to keep business as usual going the harder it's going to be for an orderly shutdown. I wrote a brief blog post yesterday on the progression I expect. https://boatingadventuresblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/05/cruise-ships-and-covid-19/

But yet it goes on. You can leave from Florida this weekend for a $229 6 day all inclusive Caribbean holiday.

Someone earlier asked about insurance. That may be a decisive factor in their survival. Long quarantines under threat of death can get very expensive I imagine.

What's really riling me up right now is that there's a very high probability that cruise ships are playing a significant role in the global and community spread of a deadly virus. And I think that most North Americans are being far too complacent about the virus. People are getting off cruise ships as we speak and potentially carrying the virus back to their homes and offices.

CaptTom said:

Anyway, the secret to enjoying a cruise is to be a contrarian.

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Good point, Tom. An extraordinarily rare commodity here on TF.

I believe I read somewhere that due to demand being good, 16 additional ships of various sizes were scheduled to be delivered in 2020.

I worry more about the closeness on a plane than a cruise liner ......
I just flew from Ft Lauderdale to Atlanta. In the Atlanta airport, the only 2 people I saw wearing masks were asian... Asians seem to believe, those masks are the first defense to pretty much everything..... Their value is not preventing a person from getting it but rather as containment to those who have it... For heaven's sake dont wear them into a bank. LOL

"That works until the next coronavirus variant springs up. It is a never ending pattern. New virus, new vaccine, newer virus, newer vaccine........"


Most years the flu vaccine is only 25% efficient. For geezers they suggest a 4x dose , but its still a 70%+ failure rate.

Jeff F said:

But now? My best case scenario is pretty bleak. The longer the industry - which is really just 3 companies - tries to keep business as usual going the harder it's going to be for an orderly shutdown. I wrote a brief blog post yesterday on the progression I expect. https://boatingadventuresblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/05/cruise-ships-and-covid-19/

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Somebody might make a fortune coming up with a mothball fleet of unused cruise ships. But really, if they aren't cruising, where can you dock these monsters on any kind of a long range basis? Maybe one or two could be handled but Carnival has 104 of them. Really, their only option is to keep on cruising even if at big losses.

Woodland Hills said:

All cruise ships are foreign manned except those on American rivers.

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Not quite right. The Cabotage Act (Jones Act) requires that any commercial vessel trading between 2 US ports must be US Crewed. So if a ship goes from US Port A to US Port B without an intervening Foreign port it has to be US Flag and that in turn requires US Crew. Norwegian Cruise Line launched the Pride of America in 2005, the first new U.S.-flagged cruise ship built in 50 years. The U.S. flag means it can travel directly from U.S. port to U.S. port, unlike most ocean liners, which are registered in foreign countries.

Donsan said:

I have been wondering if the losses are covered by insurance or partially by insurance.

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My firm (before I retired) insures Cruise Ships. Without being specific as to company, Insurance is available to protect against loss of earnings from specific perils and those perils can include contagion. The coverage for this is not cheap and some lines choose to absorb the risk. In any case the coverage would not respond to wholesale cancellations, or lack of bookings due to fear of contagion.

Cruiseships are enormously expensive and the owning companies carry enormous debt loads, for example Norwegian Cruise Line's debt ratio is 0.97 as of 12/31/2018. That's like having a 97% mortgage on your house. There's not much room for bad news in that scenario.

Jeff F said:

What's really riling me up right now is that there's a very high probability that cruise ships are playing a significant role in the global and community spread of a deadly virus. And I think that most North Americans are being far too complacent about the virus. People are getting off cruise ships as we speak and potentially carrying the virus back to their homes and offices.

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As if people ON the ships wasn't a horrific enough experience. Them being the carrying vector back to everyone else, ugh.

I have absolutely zero desire to ever take a cruise. I just don't like large crowds of people crammed into one set of experiences. It's not crowds, I'm fine with big cities or busy transit hubs. It's about the fake nature of everyone jammed into one set of activities.

Closest I've come to this was the horrible experience of the Atlantis resort on the Bahamas. Ugh, the shopping mall-like concourse of restaurants... Crammed full of a random assortment of people all bent on doing the same thing. I'll trade that for a busy street where there's a more diverse mix of people and activities. Not just a bunch of tourists all trying to jam as much of "the experience" into their time as possible.

So we travel to many different islands and countries, looking for what each location offers. Without being limited to what some cruise company has schemed to maximize their profits. And to be able to do it with or without as many people as we choose.

I suppose some folks are comforted by the perceived bargain of having all their travel decisions made for them. That's not us.

When I lived in Duluth 30 years ago there was a dockworkers strike. There were as many as twenty ore boats anchored off the ship canal waiting to load or unload. I don't remember the exact numbers but the cost to the ship owners was millions per day.

Loggers in Northern Wisconsin have their logging equipment (skidders, processors, trucks, etc)so heavily mortgaged they can not afford to let them set for even a day.

Independent truckers must run the trucks almost 24/7 to make the payments.

In addition to loosing income if a ship sits idle, there is a tremendous expense in the form of "rent", utilities and security at a dock.

If one cruise ship sits idle out of a fleet of say 75 ships, the profit from many of them is used up supporting the non contributor.

They are on a "Slippery Slope" indeed!

Good Riddance, I say.

pete

What is the global percentage of cruise ship travellers???....according to the USCG, the amount of foreign crews that visit the US on commercial cargo vessels every month , with poor health care, may dwarf that.

cruise ships

When you "stuff" 2000-3000 passengers and 1000 plus crew into a confined space you can bet someone is not in the best of health and can and will infect fellow passengers and crew.

Thanks, But I'll skip a trip on a "cattle boat".