Coronavirus and buying a boat

Just wondering what the general consensus is on buying a boat during the Coronavirus event. Should I or shouldn't I? Boat is a 55ft trawler style boat in the half mill range.

Greetings,
Mr. R. Exactly what is your concern? You may not be around to enjoy it? The vessel may be contaminated? Future shortage of diesel fuel or spare parts?

Price, mate. If the world goes to **** in the next 12 months boats will be able to be bought allot cheaper than the price they are now. If for some reason boating is not for me and I want to sell then I'm up the proverbial **** creek.

Greetings,
Mr. R. I see what you're saying but I have no definitive response. Hope for the best and plan for the worst, I suppose. Any suggestions you may receive, pretty much, will be speculation IMO.
Will CORVID-19 be an apocalyptic event? I hope not although I also feel thing are going to get worse rather than better, in the short term but that's not going to prevent me from getting on with my life.
Years ago, two of my in laws, bought an income property near the peak of a housing boom. Within a year the market had collapsed and the rent they were getting didn't even pay for the mortgage on the property. Long story short, they had to keep the place for 15 years before they could sell it and break even on the losses they suffered during that time.
Bottom line is IF the world DOES collapse, money may be the least of your worries.

My $.02....

I was planning on flying to China this month to visit some shipyards. Can’t now.

However on a positive note, once things stabilize and China releases the freeze on its currency then the exchange rate should be much more favorable.

So there’s one perspective for ya, mate

Ralsy,

I would made sure boating is or is not for you before buying. Have you consider a long charter? Maybe a two week charter would help answer the question?

As to price, who knows but I regret waiting for the years that I waited. If you are a cash buyer without contingency then you are buying at the cheapest. If you answer the above yes and find the right boat then go for it. Life is short.

The question is: should I buy a boat with an economic downturn coming? Or maybe even a global recession.

OP,
You have a few options, some mentioned before. First, be sure boating is for you. Charter or rent for a while. Perhaps buy a smaller / less costly boat that's very popular, should you not like it, easier to sell.



Hard to predict markets, however we can see trends.

A 55’ trawler is an expensive way to launch a trial balloon. There are boats that size to bareboat charter in SW Florida. You could be onboard next week.

Just make sure it has lots of room to store Corona...

Should I buy anything knowing it might be worth less in a few years?
I think this question answers your question.

Covid 19 seems to be highly transmissible as evidenced by its rapid spread to so many countries. I crunched the numbers yesterday and the province of BC (Canada) with a population of 5 million had tested 10 times more people than the whole of the United States, as had Ontario, and 20 Canadians were found to have the virus.

This suggests, because the US wasn't testing to the same degree, there were at least 185 people wandering around the US interacting with people, who interacted with other people, etc. China's numbers are suspect as well.

If this virus follows the trajectory of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19 (both being highly transmissible with an approximate death rate of 2%) the first wave of infections will peak in June. In that pandemic about 3 million died around June, 20 million died around October, and about 7 million died the next March. We're a lot smarter now in terms of hygiene and self isolation when sick, but there are about 4 times as many people on the planet now.

I'm waiting to see what happens by June...

MurrayM said:

Covid 19 seems to be highly transmissible as evidenced by its rapid spread to so many countries. I crunched the numbers yesterday and the province of BC (Canada) with a population of 5 million had tested 10 times more people than the whole of the United States, as had Ontario, and 20 Canadians were found to have the virus.

This suggests, because the US wasn't testing to the same degree, there were at least 185 people wandering around the US interacting with people, who interacted with other people, etc. China's numbers are suspect as well.

If this virus follows the trajectory of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19 (both being highly transmissible with an approximate death rate of 2%) the first wave of infections will peak in June. In that pandemic about 3 million died around June, 20 million died around October, and about 7 million died the next March. We're a lot smarter now in terms of hygiene and self isolation when sick, but there are about 4 times as many people on the planet now.

I'm waiting to see what happens by June...

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I agree with your assessment. It’s not a question of if it will become endemic but when. Governments are playing a delay game in hopes that the virus can be somewhat contained while work proceeds on a vaccine. The global supply chain has been interrupted with many of these effects not well understood by the public.

With respect to the OP’s question, it’s almost certain that luxury goods will fall in price. Boats have almost never been a sound investment. They depreciate to some degree, but more important they consume money to maintain and store. The real question is whether you are financially sound enough to weather the current storm, and still enjoy and utilize the purchase. They are also not bad places to self quarantine if needed.

MurrayM said:

If this virus follows the trajectory of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19 (both being highly transmissible with an approximate death rate of 2%) the first wave of infections will peak in June. In that pandemic about 3 million died around June, 20 million died around October, and about 7 million died the next March. We're a lot smarter now in terms of hygiene and self isolation when sick, but there are about 4 times as many people on the planet now...

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Seems like a boat purchase now would be the best way to survive the coming zombie apocalypse

If one is trying to guess markets, one will be right 50% of the time. If you wait for the perfect time, you'll never buy.

BandB said:

If you wait for the perfect time, you'll never buy.

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.......or sell.

BandB said:

If one is trying to guess markets, one will be right 50% of the time. If you wait for the perfect time, you'll never buy.

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Shrew said:

.......or sell.

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I knew a couple in NC dating and waiting for the perfect time to get married. First, it was finishing high school, then college, then getting good jobs, then saving some money for a nice wedding and honeymoon. Ironically they took a $40,000 trip to Australia and New Zealand for six weeks. Last I knew they were still waiting but they've now been together for at least 30 years. Guess they're waiting on retirement now. Everyone thinks they're married, all who have met them in the past 20 years. I'd just love to see the surprises if they sent out wedding invitations.

Well, if folks are dropping dead left, right and center, then I'll get on my boat with my wife and dog and head to Princess Louisa Inlet for a month. Your boat becomes your escape. And while people are dropping dead all over, I'll be looking at Chatterbox Falls, thinking... wow!

If I were a cash buyer with that much to play with Right now I think I would buy a $2-300,000 boat that checks all the qualifications I need it to than take the rest and buy gold with it once it comes down prob another $50-75.00 than go cruising for the next couple years in a bit more secluded area and wait for the whole coronavirus thing to blow over.

This has been my plan for the zombie apocalypse, Pick your hated politician apocalypse, SARS, whine flu, exes, Mondays, Fridays, holidays, etc. Other than a hurricane, you can never go wrong getting on a boat.

Poor time to buy if you are not sure boating is for you, period. There is a downturn happening, and as sure as the sun rises tomorrow there will be a vaccine. Then all this goes away, but when? It will be available before the world ends. Hey, 82% of infections are MILD. An 18% thinning of the herd is not a back idea at this point, unless it's you and yours.

Son if you've got that much money why not buy a s/hand boat with all the extra's fitted.
If you wanna play the money market the returns are faster on exchange rates. Your call !

BandB said:

If one is trying to guess markets, one will be right 50% of the time. If you wait for the perfect time, you'll never buy.

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Yes you're probably right.

Ralsy said:

Just wondering what the general consensus is on buying a boat during the Coronavirus event. Should I or shouldn't I? Boat is a 55ft trawler style boat in the half mill range.

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This Coronavirus is being blown completely out of proportion by the media.

I'm not buying it.

Symtoms for healthy people are being compared to a cold, not flu.

More serious for the weak but a cold could kill the weak too..

The flu is more severe and affects a lot of people in the US annualy.

Per CDC:

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Symptoms of Coronovirus:

Coronavirus makes people sick, usually with a mild to moderate upper respiratory tract illness, similar to a common cold. Its symptoms include a runny nose, cough, sore throat, headache and a fever that can last for a couple of days.

For those with a weakened immune system, the elderly and the very young, there's a chance the virus could cause a lower, and much more serious, respiratory tract illness like a pneumonia or bronchitis.

I don't believe in the "zombie" deal. However I have thought of my boat as a safe haven if everything goes REALLY bad. War, infrastructure collapse, really bad economy, etc. In the event of any of these things I have to admit that I would probably be better off in my dirt home in Northern Wisconsin. I can hunt, heat with wood, do without electricity, I have a well, I have a generator and some cached supplies. Barter would probably be a big thing in the event of collapse and I am pretty well set there so the boat probably would not be my "Go To" refuge.

But, that was not the original question. Just because we had one really lousy stock market week does not mean collapse is imminent.

Boat prices are generally higher in the Spring, lower in the Fall. (Its not Spring yet) Prices may fall a bit until the economy fully rebounds.

Personally, I guess I would wait a while, not all summer but maybe a couple months until you feel better at prognosticating the economy( good luck with that). If you are just now beginning your search for a boat it will be a couple months anyway until you find the perfect buy. Buying inn the middle of the summer may get you a pretty good bargain.

Just one mans opinion, but I guess that's why you asked..

pete

I disagree the risks of the virus are overrated. Especially for older people, of which I think there are many on TF.
Having just bought, and about to go to market with the "old' boat, I would say, from a position of possible bias, get on with it. Yes, if we get a recession boat prices will fall, they are "luxury" items and such items, like expensive cars, fall in price in a recession.
I think it depends on a variety of things, especially finances. Can you withstand a loss? And how concerned you are whether, with time, you will still like boating. If there are real doubts about that, buying is not a good idea, especially now.
In all the PO`s posts, I never sensed uncertainty in buying, there could be a touch of pre purchase remorse which needs analyzing to determine "why".

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,
Mr. R. Exactly what is your concern? You may not be around to enjoy it? The vessel may be contaminated? Future shortage of diesel fuel or spare parts?

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Perfect

When I started looking for my boat, I assumed that I had roughly 20 years left to cruise. 5 years later when I purchased the boat, I had 15 left and had lost 25% of my cruising time. After a 2 year refit, I have my dream boat and 13 years (65%) of my original cruising time left.

If your cruising window is 20 years, you loose 5% for every year you wait. How much are you prepared to loose waiting for a better price, maybe?

Ted

O C Diver said:

When I started looking for my boat, I assumed that I had roughly 20 years left to cruise. 5 years later when I purchased the boat, I had 15 left and had lost 25% of my cruising time. After a 2 year refit, I have my dream boat and 13 years (65%) of my original cruising time left.

If your cruising window is 20 years, you loose 5% for every year you wait. How much are you prepared to loose waiting for a better price, maybe?

Ted

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And for all of us it's true that the older you get the larger percentage of your remaining life each year becomes so they become even more precious.

Pete Meisinger said:

I don't believe in the "zombie" deal. However I have thought of my boat as a safe haven if everything goes REALLY bad. War, infrastructure collapse, really bad economy, etc. In the event of any of these things I have to admit that I would probably be better off in my dirt home in Northern Wisconsin. I can hunt, heat with wood, do without electricity, I have a well, I have a generator and some cached supplies. Barter would probably be a big thing in the event of collapse and I am pretty well set there so the boat probably would not be my "Go To" refuge.

pete

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My sanctimonious neighbor across the bayou (who freely tells me with conviction I am going to Hell) was sanctimoniously (did I say she is sanctimonious?) telling me how she was stocking up like a Mormon (she's not) for the chaos to come. I told I was very glad to hear that as I was stocking up on lead, some of which is frequently concealed on my hip and that now I knew where the food was.