Drought and Higher Panama Canal Fees

The article stated some high dollar amounts for the huge ships that go through the Panama Canal.


What does it cost a recreational boater to transit the locks?

GFC said:

The article stated some high dollar amounts for the huge ships that go through the Panama Canal.


What does it cost a recreational boater to transit the locks?

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The last I heard it was about $4000 to $6000

From the article:

According to the Panama Canal Authority, after several years of below-average rainfall, the amount of rainfall recorded in 2019 was 20 percent below the historic average and the fifth lowest recorded rainfall in 70 years. Meanwhile, the Canal has also experienced an approximately 10 percent increase in water evaporation levels due to a 0.5 to 1.5 degree Celsius rise in temperature, the Canal Authority said.

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Gee, I wonder what could be causing that?

MurrayM said:

From the article:



Gee, I wonder what could be causing that?

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Without disagreeing with your implied premise, one must also wonder who didn't think about the effect of adding the "NeoPanamax" chambers.

La Niña.

Recent years when La Niña Modoki events occurred include 1973–74, 1975–76, 1983–84, 1988–89, 1998–99, 2000–01, 2008–09, 2010–11 and 2016–17.

Corresponding with the attached graph of Lake Gatun levels.

MurrayM said:

From the article:



Gee, I wonder what could be causing that?

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When the "new" canal was being designed about 15 years ago there were several hydrology models from which to base the design. Rivers flowing into Lake Gatun have variable volumes not only based upon annual seasons but longer term as Spy points out in his spot on post.

This longer term variability was well known to the engineering team based upon a century of data accumulated for the region. In essence, an aggressive flow prediction would have a lesser volume excavated whereas designing to the low flow scenario would result in greater excavation, higher costs and longer schedule.

Designing to the low flow scenario would have affected project financing and overall viability. Without Uncle Sam's dollars and not designing to a more conservative water model, constraints appeared, not unexpectedly so.

GFC said:

The article stated some high dollar amounts for the huge ships that go through the Panama Canal.


What does it cost a recreational boater to transit the locks?

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It went up January 1, 2020, again. Less than 65’, is now $1,600. 65’-80’ is now $2,400. That doesn’t include some additional fees. When we went through the base rate was $500. We rented the required lines, had friends as line handlers and didn’t use an agent. All told we paid about $800.

The new rates are still a bargain when you look at the alternative.

sunchaser said:

When the "new" canal was being designed about 15 years ago there were several hydrology models from which to base the design. Rivers flowing into Lake Gatun have variable volumes not only based upon annual seasons but longer term as Spy points out in his spot on post.

This longer term variability was well known to the engineering team based upon a century of data accumulated for the region. In essence, an aggressive flow prediction would have a lesser volume excavated whereas designing to the low flow scenario would result in greater excavation, higher costs and longer schedule.

Designing to the low flow scenario would have affected project financing and overall viability...

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This was the cumulative bit of impact which caught my eye:

...Meanwhile, the Canal has also experienced an approximately 10 percent increase in water evaporation levels due to a 0.5 to 1.5 degree Celsius rise in temperature...

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Agreed. Caught my eye too.

I find it interesting that the hydrographic data is well documented as it was a US Government project up until a particularly generous President bestowed it away.

It is also interesting that that same evaporation data set is used to correlate and extrapolate La Niña events.

And when last year the canal was discussing draft limitations, they spoke of La Niña, 30% increase in wind and solar radiation.

This year, when they are invoking a fee structure, they mention a temperature rise. Now they didn't say "climate change" per se, but a lot of journalist sure did... Seems like no one questions anything if it is due to climate change.

I am not a climate change denier. It's changing. But I do believe the big driver of the phenomenon is La Niña.

But I am skeptical when it is monetized. I doubt that fee will ever go away when (if) the lake level returns.

Attached are some historical records of lake evaporation, just for fun. Anywhere from 45" to 65" of evaporation a year!

And the old reports even graph wind speed, vapor pressure, and relative humidity. Things that really do matter when discussing evaporation.

Couldn't find any newish data though. Hmm.

Northern Spy said:

...But I am skeptical when it is monetized. I doubt that fee will ever go away when (if) the lake level returns...

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Wasn’t income tax supposed to be a temporary wartime tax?

The Federal Income Tax was instituted in 1913. The US entered WW1 in 1917. You may be thinking about the Federal withholding tax on wages which started in WW2.

MurrayM said:

Wasn’t income tax supposed to be a temporary wartime tax?

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catalinajack said:

The Federal Income Tax was instituted in 1913. The US entered WW1 in 1917. You may be thinking about the Federal withholding tax on wages which started in WW2.

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Northern Spy & I are Canadian, and apparently it was introduced here during the First World War:

In 1917, as a temporary measure to help finance the war, the federal government introduced the Income Tax War Act, covering both personal and corporate income. "I have placed no time limit upon this measure . . . a year or two after the war is over, the measure should be reviewed," stated Sir Thomas White, Minister of Finance.

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https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-ag...dule-1-understanding-taxes/history-taxes.html

Egad.

If 45" of evaporation is a low year, that goes a long way to explaining the oppressive humidity people talk about down there

MurrayM said:

Egad.

If 45" of evaporation is a low year, that goes a long way to explaining the oppressive humidity people talk about down there

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We spent 10 months in Panama on Hobo. We've never been anywhere where it rains like it does there. We had over 100" and I think the annual average is over 130". It's wet and wetter. Mold/mildew? You can grow it over night.

An ever increasing bogeyman around the Canal Zone is deforestation. The US was pushing the Noriega regime hard to clamp down clearing for farms and development as siltation was filling up tributaries into the watershed. Silt displaces man made coffer dams and related reservoir capacity for canal operations such as Gatun Lake.

Presumably the higher transit fees will aide in improved water management. The details remain sketchy at best. My interest in Panama goes back a few decades in assessing resource development there. A major issue being dealing with the very high and low seasonal rains and impacts on watershed.

As usual, mother nature's normal cycles become grist for global warming proponents as man made activities change the more subtle balances for things such as water management, runoff, erosion and poor design. Those things being the long term health of the Canal Zone.

sunchaser said:

As usual, mother nature's normal cycles become grist for global warming proponents...

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Can I ask that you read the following link? It's a short explanation of the global average temperature based on observations by NASA, NOAA, Japan, and England, which are all getting pretty much identical results independent of each other.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp

MurrayM said:

Can I ask that you read the following link? It's a short explanation of the global average temperature based on observations by NASA, NOAA, Japan, and England, which are all getting pretty much identical results independent of each other.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp

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Murray, yes I clearly understand global warming and cooling occur as the eons roll on. And many say we did it for reasons that have bounced back and forth as naseum on TF. The operators of the canal would dearly love to have us believe that man made global warming is the root cause of their issues.

Current operations of the Canal Zone have two issues they don't like to mention . First, long festering in country man made alterations to the hydrology scheme were not appropriately dealt with in the redesign. Secondly they were not conservative enough in their water balance calculations.