BrianSmith
Senior Member
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2014
- Messages
- 487
- Location
- USA
- Vessel Name
- Smartini
- Vessel Make
- 2002 Kristen 52' Flybridge Trawler
We're in Providenciales, TCI, getting ready for out next move, to San Juan, PR. We expect it to take 56 hours at 7 kts. We're looking for a nice 3 day weather window, but the REALLY nice windows are few and far between this time of year. You know - the ones with wind under 10kts, 2-3 ft waves, and a 10 second wave period.
So we're trying to figure out some "cut off", below which it is likely to be fairly comfortable, and above which, we just won't go. But we don't have that much "big water" experience - back and forth from FL to Bahamas several times, but those are 8 hour crossings, and we're looking at 56 hours.
We use PredictWind and Windy to get forecasts. If you want to play along at home, you can look at Windy for free (windy.com). Pick a point midway between Provo and San Juan, and look at the Waves forecast. You'll see, this coming Saturday, Sunday, and Monday a stretch in which the waves are forecast to be (at worst) 5 ft. with a 7.6 second "swell period", and (most common) 4 ft. with a 7.8 - 8.2 second "swell period". Waves are from the East that whole time. Wind during that period is from SE then E, up to 14 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts.
PredictWind shows 3 different model forecasts: one mostly in agreement with Windy, the other two are as bad as 6 ft. waves with a 7 second period.
Go, or no-go? (We are stabilized, but with the waves from that direction, won't be doing much.)
So we're trying to figure out some "cut off", below which it is likely to be fairly comfortable, and above which, we just won't go. But we don't have that much "big water" experience - back and forth from FL to Bahamas several times, but those are 8 hour crossings, and we're looking at 56 hours.
We use PredictWind and Windy to get forecasts. If you want to play along at home, you can look at Windy for free (windy.com). Pick a point midway between Provo and San Juan, and look at the Waves forecast. You'll see, this coming Saturday, Sunday, and Monday a stretch in which the waves are forecast to be (at worst) 5 ft. with a 7.6 second "swell period", and (most common) 4 ft. with a 7.8 - 8.2 second "swell period". Waves are from the East that whole time. Wind during that period is from SE then E, up to 14 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts.
PredictWind shows 3 different model forecasts: one mostly in agreement with Windy, the other two are as bad as 6 ft. waves with a 7 second period.
Go, or no-go? (We are stabilized, but with the waves from that direction, won't be doing much.)