Hurricane Florence

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/atcf/latestATL.png

Tom if you're still in Northwest Creek that's about as good as you can hope for. It'll be all about the surge there. Good luck!

BandB said:

Florida Statute 327.59 Marina evacuations.—
(1) After June 1, 1994, marinas may not adopt, maintain, or enforce policies pertaining to evacuation of vessels which require vessels to be removed from marinas following the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning, in order to ensure that protecting the lives and safety of vessel owners is placed before interests of protecting property.

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Might hinge on when a hurricane watch or warning is issued?

Perhaps requiring boats to move can be legal if before a watch or warning is issued?

Has one been issued yet for that the area where that marina is?

-Chris

caltexflanc said:

Tom if you're still in Northwest Creek that's about as good as you can hope for. It'll be all about the surge there. Good luck!

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We are still there. We are kinda panicking today and are headed BACK to the boat to double-check the tie and do as much as we can.

BandB said:

Florida Statute 327.59 Marina evacuations.—
(1) After June 1, 1994, marinas may not adopt, maintain, or enforce policies pertaining to evacuation of vessels which require vessels to be removed from marinas following the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning, in order to ensure that protecting the lives and safety of vessel owners is placed before interests of protecting property.

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BB that's very interesting, esp. the date it was implemented. When I lived in Key Largo (roughly 2005-2010) the Mom & Pop marinas still made folks sign a storm evac clause. Sadly (depending on your bent), I think most of them have sold out and have become much more commercialized. When we left we were living in one of only 3 (that I knew of) privately owned RV parks on Key Largo. The rest had sold out to developers and folks in them were on borrowed time until the economy turned and the building would start.

PS we were only paying $50/month for a slip back then!!!!

twiisted71 said:

BB that's very interesting, esp. the date it was implemented. When I lived in Key Largo (roughly 2005-2010) the Mom & Pop marinas still made folks sign a storm evac clause. Sadly (depending on your bent), I think most of them have sold out and have become much more commercialized. When we left we were living in one of only 3 (that I knew of) privately owned RV parks on Key Largo. The rest had sold out to developers and folks in them were on borrowed time until the economy turned and the building would start.

PS we were only paying $50/month for a slip back then!!!!

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I expect if challenged, the clause would be found illegal and struck from the contract. But that doesn't stop people from putting it in contracts and asking people to leave. Assuming the law dates back to '94, I'd be surprised if there isn't already some case law on this.


And speaking of these requirements to remove you boat... where exactly are they all supposed to go? Around here, nearly everyone hauls out in the winter, so there is space for everyone. That's the good news. But it also takes months to haul them all out in the fall, and months to launch them all again in the spring. So no way to haul everyone in 2-3 days. And there is very limited free space in marinas in the region, so it's not like everyone can go to some marina far away, especially when you consider that "far away" in hurricane terms is hundreds of miles, and perhaps a thousand ore more where a storm is going to sweep a coast line. I know some marinas offer hurricane haulout deals where they will reserve space and haul you. But that can't serve more than a fraction of the boats in the water


So how is this supposed to work?

twistedtree said:

I expect if challenged, the clause would be found illegal and struck from the contract. But that doesn't stop people from putting it in contracts and asking people to leave. Assuming the law dates back to '94, I'd be surprised if there isn't already some case law on this.


And speaking of these requirements to remove you boat... where exactly are they all supposed to go? Around here, nearly everyone hauls out in the winter, so there is space for everyone. That's the good news. But it also takes months to haul them all out in the fall, and months to launch them all again in the spring. So no way to haul everyone in 2-3 days. And there is very limited free space in marinas in the region, so it's not like everyone can go to some marina far away, especially when you consider that "far away" in hurricane terms is hundreds of miles, and perhaps a thousand ore more where a storm is going to sweep a coast line. I know some marinas offer hurricane haulout deals where they will reserve space and haul you. But that can't serve more than a fraction of the boats in the water


So how is this supposed to work?

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Land evacuations are already underway and mandatory evacuations are expected to include up to 2 million people. We've seen how challenging that is and they're in vehicles that run 60 mph. Even that is a plan with challenges. How far to go? You can leave the coast but if you only go 50 miles inland you may well be caught in some extreme floods. Think of those who evacuated from the coastal areas of Texas but only to Houston.

Now, then you go to boats, many of which only run 8 to 12 knots and no interstate highways to carry to hotels hundreds of miles away. Jarrett Bay may have the most known hurricane haul out in NC. Their record is 220 boats.

There are going to be so many challenges from Florence. There are likely to be as many as 100,000 homes lost or severely damaged based on Hugo. I think right now of the 3000 lives lost in Puerto Rico and my only advice is to protect your health and life. That's first. Your home is way down the list as second. Your boat barely makes the list as a very distant third. If you can do all three, that's great, but most can't.

I can't imagine leaving one's home for this, yet it's what we must do. We have family with us who left their homes in Myrtle Beach. I'm not sure they would have but there's a four year old and even if they might not have put their lives first, they put hers as the priority.

Re: Good advice from what barnicles (#90) - When the power goes down, cash is king. If you're staying, an ATM run or two is in order while you still can. A lot of folks tend to overlook this.

Take 2 people with completely different training and experience and mindset thrust into a survival situation.

One dies or suffers greatly, the other barely notices....

Hard to say what is right for individuals...easier to say what is generally a good idea...if that's even necessary in today's info bombardment and government nanny state world.

Plus there's a big difference between being 20 miles inland but only 5 feet above sea level and 5 miles inland and 40 feet above sea level....plus whether you are in open land or a tightly packed population or forested land.

For those of you in harms way. I've been in the middle of many hurricanes (USCG), living in Houston, and now SW Florida.

Personally felt the eye of Ike, Ida, and Irma.

Our 52,000 lb 49' DeFever was set 22 feet up in the parking lot during Ike. We were at anchor for Ida, and secured our Albin in our Hurricane hole marina here in Cape Harbour during Irma.

Run from Water, Hide from Wind.

Baton down the hatches now. Take lots of pictures of how well you secured your boat and how well you neighbors secured theirs. It makes a difference to be able to demonstrate to your insurance company your efforts to secure your boat.

Take off personal items you don't want to lose.

Sorry for the grim suggestions, just be very, very, careful and be very, very safe.

Hope everyone in the area gets through this ok. Be safe.

HypnoBob said:

For those of you in harms way. I've been in the middle of many hurricanes (USCG), living in Houston, and now SW Florida.

Personally felt the eye of Ike, Ida, and Irma.

Our 52,000 lb 49' DeFever was set 22 feet up in the parking lot during Ike. We were at anchor for Ida, and secured our Albin in our Hurricane hole marina here in Cape Harbour during Irma.

Run from Water, Hide from Wind.

Baton down the hatches now. Take lots of pictures of how well you secured your boat and how well you neighbors secured theirs. It makes a difference to be able to demonstrate to your insurance company your efforts to secure your boat.

Take off personal items you don't want to lose.

Sorry for the grim suggestions, just be very, very, careful and be very, very safe.

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Good advice...especially the run from water, hide from wind....very different and important when managing risks.

twistedtree said:

So how is this supposed to work?

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As BnB said, hurricane holes. A big problem in the Keys is the same as most low lying coastal areas if hauling out for a storm....a 10' surge will likely float most boats off their stands. Not to mention the lack of a windbreak and 99.9% of places don't have tie-downs to anchor to while on the hard.
The mangroves are 10-20' and there are hundreds of tiny canals off the main channels that tend to be surprisingly deep and many of them have a small bay/pond at the end.

After dealing with the insanity of Irma last year at this time, I fully agree with getting a wad of cash(divide it up and stash it in several places in your vehicle and amongst your family so that if something happens you won't lose all of it, and get as many gas cans filled up as you can. Also if possible evac at night....much less traffic on the roads and to compete with at gas/food places. Thats another thing grab as much ready to eat out of the package fod/snacks as you can....you might be on the road several hours longer than you thought before finding a place to stop/eat. I understand that S.Fla and SE La. are not typical with the absurd distance you have to go with only 1-2 road choices before you can begin to move "away" from a coastline, but you are still talking about millions of people doing a high stress mass exodus. My personal rule was anything above Cat1 within 100 miles of the house and we were packing up ,battening down, and ready to go after 10pm the night before it was to hit. Wilma was supposed to hit us as a Cat4 dead-on, with a huge surge. It fizzled at the 11th hour and still caused Billion$ in damage over a hundred+ mile stretch of Florida! Even at a strong Cat1 we lost our screen pool enclosure, had some sheetrock damage in a concrete block construction house due to the roof/rafters flexing, and had to get a new roof. Everyone had lots of tree damage. And this in an area that was built to "hurricane" standards!
I had a neighbor once ask me when I was outside gathering things up, putting on storm shutters, and packing some full gas cans into the garage, "Hey what are ya doing all that for? Its only supposed to be a category 1."
I replied back "Yeah.....a category 1 'what' ?" Its that word after the number that should make you sit up and take notice everytime. The number just means how much you'd better prepare."

what_barnacles said:

I dont know how many remember the rains and flooding from the one hurricane in the carolina's back in the 90's or 2000's that knocked out all the ATMs for over a week. You couldnt use them for days either as debit or CC.

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That was Charlie (the one that wreaked so much havoc in SW Fla. I was living in western NC at that time. Several people got killed near us in mudslides/flash floods in areas that hadn't had issues in recorded time! Hundreds of thousands without power/water for over a week! Check out how far Asheville NC is from Ft Myers FL!

Storms this size can carry their energy a LONNNNNG way!

twistedtree said:

So how is this supposed to work?

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That is always what I want to know as well. In our area if a few marinas had to clear out with days or even a week notice, there really wouldn’t be enough places to put all the boats.

I hope something changes to push this storm north and keep it off land.

The problem is that even the good news is bad news. Florence is expected to weaken a little before making landfall but that weakening is caused by it moving very slowly as it goes over shallower waters. It's expected to stall just off shore or after landing on shore, but that's what Harvey did and we know how that worked out. The concern is that both NC and SC could set new records of rainfall from a storm and that's on top of record rainfall already for the year. Based on current forecasts, a small area of NC is expected to get more than 20" and a larger area of NC and small area of VA get between 15 and 20" and a wider band in both states get 10 to 15". Current forecast has the rain hitting NC and VA most and only up to 4" in SC, although 4" in those areas will still flood.

This is much more a Harvey type scenario than an Andrew. In fact, with all the damage, the salvation of Andrew was it moved so fast that it minimized surge and rainfall.

ben2go said:

I hope something changes to push this storm north and keep it off land.

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Not likely, based on the steadiness of the spaghetti models. I just sent out a revised hurricane restriction notice that prevents any new insurance business being bound in not just the Carolinas, but the Virginias as well....Isaac and Olivia were also on this notice.

Not pretty.

Does this slip make my boat look small?





Moved my 35' charter boat to a 60' slip this afternoon. Storm lines are in place. Basically, the boat can move around in the slip without being able to touch pilings, docks and the finger pier. All the extra slack in the lines should allow the boat to handle a 10 to 15' above normal high water. Fingers crossed; head to the trawler tomorrow morning to secure it.

Ted

We here in Seaford look to be getting a steady 40mph wind from ENE and maybe 3 to 5 foot surge.
That wind will force boat into the wood finger pier, plan to attach several bumpers to the fixed pier and set some longer spring lines and those cross tied aft lines, I need to loosen them up, that way boat can easily ride up with the water. There is a 40 foot Luhrs right next me and a 30 foot Tiara to left of me. Neither owner has done a thing. And neither have any of the big sailboat owners come out to do a thing. Many of the smaller trailered boats pulled out.

Every now and then one of my friends posts a really good saying, such as "Waiting on a hurricane is like being stalked by a turtle ...

Ted

sdowney717 said:

We here in Seaford look to be getting a steady 40mph wind from ENE and maybe 3 to 5 foot surge.
That wind will force boat into the wood finger pier, plan to attach several bumpers to the fixed pier and set some longer spring lines and those cross tied aft lines, I need to loosen them up, that way boat can easily ride up with the water. There is a 40 foot Luhrs right next me and a 30 foot Tiara to left of me. Neither owner has done a thing. And neither have any of the big sailboat owners come out to do a thing. Many of the smaller trailered boats pulled out.

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Thus is why insurance kills us all....unless someone in the know can convince me otherwise.

But it is what a well know adjuster told me once...everything from total losses taking out other boats to just loose canvas needing replacement to the tune of $10 grand a flybridge enclosure....and on and on....

Irresponsible boaters for the most part.....

Pau Hana said:

Not likely, based on the steadiness of the spaghetti models. I just sent out a revised hurricane restriction notice that prevents any new insurance business being bound in not just the Carolinas, but the Virginias as well....Isaac and Olivia were also on this notice.

Not pretty.

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The models I'm watching are still a little squirrelly near landfall. I'm hoping for some kind of change for the better. Not expecting to see it go north but nothing a hurricane does surprises me. In fact if anything it may land a little farther south according to some experts.

I'm hoping for a little weakening near landfall but it probably won't feel like a break. Not a reason to change any plans.

That map I posted earlier is not static, it updates every time the forum page is loaded. It also resizes if you click the bar.

O C Diver said:

Does this slip make my boat look small?

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Moved my 35' charter boat to a 60' slip this afternoon. Storm lines are in place. Basically, the boat can move around in the slip without being able to touch pilings, docks and the finger pier. All the extra slack in the lines should allow the boat to handle a 10 to 15' above normal high water. Fingers crossed; head to the trawler tomorrow morning to secure it.

Ted

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Does your shorepower cable have enough slack for that type of surge?

Boat said:

The models I'm watching are still a little squirrelly near landfall. I'm hoping for some kind of change for the better. Not expecting to see it go north but nothing a hurricane does surprises me. In fact if anything it may land a little farther south according to some experts.

I'm hoping for a little weakening near landfall but it probably won't feel like a break. Not a reason to change any plans.

That map I posted earlier is not static, it updates every time the forum page is loaded. It also resizes if you click the bar.

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Yes.....but the guiding fronts may collapse as it reaches shore like they did in Harvey. It's supposed to only be moving at the speed of 5 knots. There's even a possibility of it sliding south after it hits. The winds are expected to weaken as it reaches shore. Certainly if it's a CAT 3 vs. CAT 4 that can reduce wind damage. However, flooding will still be a major concern.

I just saw videos of cars leaving the evacuation zone. Very slow.

dhays said:

Does your shorepower cable have enough slack for that type of surge?

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Absolutely, the cord runs parallel to the stern line, but there's a large bow in the power cable.

Ted

Models all over the place right now. Might stall right off the coast but I am sure not betting on that!

Good luck guys, we will be praying for you all.

BandB said:

Yes.....but the guiding fronts may collapse as it reaches shore like they did in Harvey. It's supposed to only be moving at the speed of 5 knots. There's even a possibility of it sliding south after it hits. The winds are expected to weaken as it reaches shore. Certainly if it's a CAT 3 vs. CAT 4 that can reduce wind damage. However, flooding will still be a major concern.

I just saw videos of cars leaving the evacuation zone. Very slow.

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This might be our best hope. And it is just a hope. Winds will drop quickly, maybe less surge, but rain and flooding will still cause immense damage. Never discount the tornadoes.

When I lived in Florida I was always amazed at the complacency of people. So many would wait until the day before the storm, and by then Home Depot would be out of plywood!! Luckily building code changes after Andrew really made a big difference.