Apparently Irma was a nothing burger

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what_barnacles

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The MSM dropped all coverage of the hurricane at 7 pm. Gotta appease the cash cow programs you know. Now I have to surf the web to see if the surge actually materializes.

Loved all the trailers being used as devastation props.
 
The Current Apocalypse

But, when this one is done, we will have a new one tomorrow.
 
thanks for that I'm streaming them now. I felt like I just ran out of crack. LOL

So far it doesnt look like it has as much flood damage as they predicted. Thankfully.
 
what_barnacles said:
The MSM dropped all coverage of the hurricane at 7 pm. Gotta appease the cash cow programs you know. Now I have to surf the web to see if the surge actually materializes.

Loved all the trailers being used as devastation props.
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You should tell this to people in St-Barth and St-Marteen, I am pretty sure they would agree... :nonono:

L.
 
My dad is in Stuart Florida. They never even lost electricity, although it blinked a couple times. They're going to bed now that it's tapering off. That's the problem with end of the world predictions, eventually people won't believe the media or the authorities - and then when the world really is going to end, their credibility will be blown. Now maybe the media will have to go back to imminent nuclear anihilation from Pyongyang.
 
kthoennes said:
My dad is in Stuart Florida. They never even lost electricity, although it blinked a couple times. They're going to bed now that it's tapering off. That's the problem with end of the world predictions, eventually people won't believe the media or the authorities - and then when the world really is going to end, their credibility will be blown. Now maybe the media will have to go back to imminent nuclear anihilation from Pyongyang.
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A conversation my wife and I have had numerous time during Matthew and Irma.

It is called crying wolf.

Compare the NHC Wind Prob charts posted every 12 hours to what the TV stations are saying and you will see the vast differences. So where are the stations getting their info. Using their own and ignoring NHC?
 
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menzies said:
A pawn shop and a shoe store?

And this is "going to do the most damage?"

Seems like you wish there was more looting to meet your agenda.

Message from me is: let's not let ourselves down by crapola like this.
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LOL no, but you captured my position perfectly in your next post.

It is called crying wolf.

Compare the NHC Wind Prob charts posted every 12 hours to what the TV stations are saying and you will see the vast differences. So where are the stations getting their info. Using their own and ignoring NHC?
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It's good to see both sides of the Aisle can see them for what they are.
 
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We don't need all stations 24/7 covering it. Other parts of lives must go on too. Still plenty of places to get information and updates.
 
BandB said:
We don't need all stations 24/7 covering it. Other parts of lives must go on too. Still plenty of places to get information and updates.
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Did you post that indignantly with your hands on your hips? Maybe even with a snort? :D

If it wasnt for my cell I wouldnt know whats going on. Theres lots of them poor unfortunate people you talked about that dont even have a cell phone. How do they find out?
 
what_barnacles said:
Did you post that indignantly with your hands on your hips? Maybe even with a snort? :D

If it wasnt for my cell I wouldnt know whats going on. Theres lots of them poor unfortunate people you talked about that dont even have a cell phone. How do they find out?
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I would propose that all "poor" people have a cell phone but not TVs and Computers.
 
what_barnacles said:
Did you post that indignantly with your hands on your hips? Maybe even with a snort? :D

If it wasnt for my cell I wouldnt know whats going on. Theres lots of them poor unfortunate people you talked about that dont even have a cell phone. How do they find out?
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Well, network television isn't going to help them. Local stations are running programs. There are people in other areas of the country and even those here need a break occasionally.

If they have no electricity and tv and no cell phones then they are going to struggle for information until they can get out and talk to people. Communications is definitely one of the biggest post hurricane issues.

We're watching Sunday Night Football. When the curfew is ended tomorrow morning then we'll be able to actually see what is going on.
 
Looters are like purse snatchers. The lowest of the low. Sint Maarten is really dealing with the lowlifes...and when everyone is down. A sad side of humanity.
 
menzies said:
A conversation my wife and I have had numerous time during Matthew and Irma.

It is called crying wolf.

Compare the NHC Wind Prob charts posted every 12 hours to what the TV stations are saying and you will see the vast differences. So where are the stations getting their info. Using their own and ignoring NHC?
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Bingo
 
The charts were consistent with NHC except for the time NHC had it going up off the east shore.

One thing that most people don't know is the definition of sustained wind speed. It refers to the highest one-minute average wind (at an elevation of 10 meters with an unobstructed exposure) associated with that weather system at a particular point in time. Yet when everyone uses sustained vs. gusts in the course of the storm they're not thinking in those terms.

Some gusts would make that. This storm did sustain high winds in the Caribbean for longer periods of time, but the long time over Cuba took a lot out of it. Then when it ran on shore. Tampa did actually record gusts over 140 mph and we supposedly hit 110 although I have no idea if that's an official number. Our friend who was measuring hit only a top of 101.

I'd hate being a meteorologist because you're damned if you do and damned if you don't on a hurricane. They do intentionally warn of the worst possibilities. I really have no argument with that.

Now, where I had the problem with government officials, with television, with everyone was on their approach to evacuation. Officially, you evacuate only for storm surge (or flooding in event of a flood). Yet, over and over they would all start warning people they felt should evacuate because of the winds. Over history there have been various changes in terms of how to rate a hurricane, warnings, evacuation. I don't have the answers.

I do think perhaps more were evacuated than necessary, but ultimately we must be doing something right if we have very few deaths. People who felt they were prepared to deal with it didn't have to evaluate. We didn't. Mandatory evacuation in Florida is just a term as there is no law requiring it. But most are not that well prepared. There were some homeless in evacuation zones taken in by law enforcement under other laws simply to get them to safety.

I'm sure there were mistakes made but for now we've still got storms. I'm sure all the actions and decisions will be looked at and evaluated at the appropriate time.
 
I disagree.

I have been tracking the NHC wind probs for our areas for the past few days and capturing the probs on a Word doc. The local First Coast New forecasts of winds was WAY over the probs.

An example from around 5 this afternoon.

The NHC showed the following for the next 24 hours (each % column is 12 hours):

JACKSONVILLE 34kt 50% 31%(81)
JACKSONVILLE 50kt 2% 7%( 9)

The Local station put up a wind forecast of between 72 and 75 MPH winds across the region during the same period.

Where did they get that info? Why the disconnect?
 
menzies said:
The Local station put up a wind forecast of between 72 and 75 MPH winds across the region during the same period.

Where did they get that info? Why the disconnect?
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Now, I can't possibly tell you why or what a local Jacksonville station did. I always use multiple sources just for the fact someone may be an outlier. The NHC was for a while on direction.

I think all of them missed two things on this hurricane. First was the time over Cuba and the slow speed at that point. Euro always had it slower than GFS but both had it reaching the US sooner than it did. The second was they didn't have the turn over land and continuing over land. They had it either just off the coast or straddling the coast. Now, 5 out of 6 models have nearly identical paths for the next couple of days. NAM has it further inland than all the others.
 
BandB said:
Now, I can't possibly tell you why or what a local Jacksonville station did. I always use multiple sources just for the fact someone may be an outlier. The NHC was for a while on direction.

I think all of them missed two things on this hurricane. First was the time over Cuba and the slow speed at that point. Euro always had it slower than GFS but both had it reaching the US sooner than it did. The second was they didn't have the turn over land and continuing over land. They had it either just off the coast or straddling the coast. Now, 5 out of 6 models have nearly identical paths for the next couple of days. NAM has it further inland than all the others.
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That doesn't explain what the news outlets are using for their wind speed forecasts. If they are not using NHC/NOAA what are they using? And why is whatever they are using significantly different.
 
menzies said:
That doesn't explain what the news outlets are using for their wind speed forecasts. If they are not using NHC/NOAA what are they using? And why is whatever they are using significantly different.
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They're using other models, combinations, each does something different. But I haven't seen anything on the national forecasts significantly different. I can't speak as to your local station. Now, if you want something to think about, then think about the fact that all the Atlanta school systems are closed tomorrow.

Here's an article that might interest you.

Accuracy of three major weather forecasting services | Dr. Randal S. Olson

That article discusses local forecasts and doesn't speak highly of some of them. It also discusses weather.com's wet bias. It doesn't discuss Accuweather or Wunderground or all the others.
 
BandB said:
They do intentionally warn of the worst possibilities. I really have no argument with that.
.
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That's actually not true.

In fact, IF it was the case, they would be crying wolf all the time and no one would believe them.
 
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