Hurricane Irma

sdowney717 said:

Hurricane Andrew was a really bad awful one for Florida.

Notice here how much larger is Irma.
Although I wonder if it will be much worse than Andrew was. Bigger just means more rain farther from the center eye.

Here’s why Irma is a monster hurricane, in one GIF. | Grist

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If Andrew were any tighter it would have been considered a tornado. It had tornadic type winds as a hurricane.

MurrayM said:

Wasn't Irma at about the maximum theoretical size an Atlantic hurricane could get before the eye drifted over landmasses? This makes me think the models might have a hard time predicting its path, since it is so far beyond the average.

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I does seem like the models are having trouble predicting. I think the EU mode has been the closest.

MurrayM said:

Wasn't Irma at about the maximum theoretical size an Atlantic hurricane could get before the eye drifted over landmasses? This makes me think the models might have a hard time predicting its path, since it is so far beyond the average.

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Actually the Euro model hasn't shifted all that much, just the US model has shifted west toward it.

They always have made clear that 4 and 5 days out the cone they show could easily be over 150 miles off.

The west coast of Florida was always in the cone they showed and always on some models. East coast to west coast of FL isn't a long distance.

It does seem that they overemphasized SE Florida a bit on television and under-emphasized SW FL. Probably a matter of population as SE Florida has so much more, but none of the maps ever have shown a huge risk from surge in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm and the maps always show that even with a lesser storm there is a risk in Naples and Fort Myers and along SW FL. Obviously risk in Keys.

The Euro model has shifted the core less than 50 miles in the entire time. The GFS model has shifted the core probably over an area close to 200 miles east and west. It has gone between an area about 40-60 miles east of the east coast to an area on the west coast. Still that's perfectly normal when you're starting four and five days out.

Now, all six models stay within less than 20 miles of each other through most of FL. By the time they hit the GA border, the range between them is about 40 miles. That's over two days away. Add another two - four days to the plan and one is in Arkansas, two are in Tennessee, two are in Kentucky, and one is in Illinois.

Moonstruck said:

If Andrew were any tighter it would have been considered a tornado. It had tornadic type winds as a hurricane.

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Andrew was certainly an outlier. Not at all like other major hurricanes that have hit the US. It just happened to hit a very metropolitan area very hard. It destroyed neighborhoods of homes and 20 miles away very little damage and it hit high rise all glass office buildings. The Burger King headquarters is somewhat like Tornado damage I've seen in downtown Fort Worth. High rise glass buildings. The damage to that one building was over $20 million so it doesn't take long for the numbers to add up like that. It destroyed over 1600 homes in Country Walk, one development, one developer. That was over $200 million.

BandB said:

Wifey B: They really shouldn't put reporters at marinas who know absolutely nothing about marinas, boats, docks, normal tides, normal wind shifts or anything else related to marinas.

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Wifey B: Also, they're looking up at buildings and talking about unprotected windows. Guess they don't know that many buildings here have hurricane impact resistant windows too. Now, we still use shutters to protect the windows from scratching.

Plus there's not a lot of debris flying around 20 stories up in the air

Wifey B: Poor Fort Lauderdale Family evacuated to Naples. They returned here with their family from Naples.

Wow. Yeah it's hard to figure out where to evacuate to in FL.

I really don't get. I've been reading all the posts on finding a safe mooring or marina and how to secure your boat. The likely hood of Florida being hit has been known for days. These are avid boaters with a passion for cruising. Their boats are relatively new or older with a lot of work put into them. Yet their content to stay in Florida. Why oh why don't the east coasters take a cruise north and the west coasters take a cruise west. Why take the risk. I really don't get it.

You will "get it" once you own a slow boat and have to actually deal with it. It's not easy like you think.

I am deeply empathetic about the tragic effect that this storm will probably have on the lives of the people of Florida, many of whom my wife and I have met and befriended over the last couple of years while enjoying brief respites in Florida from Maine winters, and their properties.

Without, I hope, detracting from that sentiment I found this article interesting:

A Requiem for Florida, the Paradise That Should Never Have Been - POLITICO Magazine

NewbieFromNJ said:

I really don't get. I've been reading all the posts on finding a safe mooring or marina and how to secure your boat. The likely hood of Florida being hit has been known for days. These are avid boaters with a passion for cruising. Their boats are relatively new or older with a lot of work put into them. Yet their content to stay in Florida. Why oh why don't the east coasters take a cruise north and the west coasters take a cruise west. Why take the risk. I really don't get it.

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The Storm was due to go north through Florida, GA, SC, NC, before it changed forecasted track. How far would you have liked us to go?

It was never supposed to go anywhere near Tally, Destin, or the Panhandle. Now it is. So how far West would you have those people go now?

dwhatty said:

I am deeply empathetic about the tragic effect that this storm will probably have on the lives of the people of Florida, many of whom my wife and I have met and befriended over the last couple of years while enjoying brief respites in Florida from Maine winters, and their properties.

Without, I hope, detracting from that sentiment I found this article interesting:

A Requiem for Florida, the Paradise That Should Never Have Been - POLITICO Magazine

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So based on that we should never have been in California due to the Earthquakes/Faults? Huge parts of Canada which turns to frozen tundra for many months of the year. Plain states due to severe tornadoes?

Right. Just 36 hours ago NOAA had Irma going up the east coast, now, it MAY go up the west coast, but no one really knows. Ask the crew of HMS Bounty, in 2012, in anticipation of Sandy, if simply taking to sea is an idea without serious risk!
I agree, you don't get it.

NewbieFromNJ said:

I really don't get. I've been reading all the posts on finding a safe mooring or marina and how to secure your boat. The likely hood of Florida being hit has been known for days. These are avid boaters with a passion for cruising. Their boats are relatively new or older with a lot of work put into them. Yet their content to stay in Florida. Why oh why don't the east coasters take a cruise north and the west coasters take a cruise west. Why take the risk. I really don't get it.

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We bought and kept our trawler on a lake off Lake Michigan but in defense of FL boaters, a hurricane can hit any coastal area in the southeast and southwest and the northeast is not immune either. Even the Great Lakes and inland waterways are not immune to natural disasters. The real allure of FL is you can boat pretty much all year long and not 5-7 months of the year in beautiful cruising areas. The low risk guys probably haul their boats during most of hurricane season but that of course cuts down on the cruising season. There are all kinds of risks in life. You just have to deal with them as rationally as you can.

cardude01 said:

You will "get it" once you own a slow boat and have to actually deal with it. It's not easy like you think.

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Agreed. Plus some of us still work everyday. Can't just grab and run and keep working

John

NewbieFromNJ said:

I really don't get. I've been reading all the posts on finding a safe mooring or marina and how to secure your boat. The likely hood of Florida being hit has been known for days. These are avid boaters with a passion for cruising. Their boats are relatively new or older with a lot of work put into them. Yet their content to stay in Florida. Why oh why don't the east coasters take a cruise north and the west coasters take a cruise west. Why take the risk. I really don't get it.

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The marinas won't have space if more than a few boats evacuate. And many boats will only be able to make less than 10kts on a good day, that's only 240 miles, and that's only if you have full tanks right now. There have been reports of marinas running out of fuel as the gold platers take your suggestion and run north or west at full throttle. No owner will complain if his captain saves the boat, but runs through an extra 3,000 gallons of diesel....

menzies said:

So based on that we should never have been in California due to the Earthquakes/Faults? Huge parts of Canada which turns to frozen tundra for many months of the year. Plain states due to severe tornadoes?

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I read the whole article, did you? The point is that all of south Florida is built on drained marshland, just a few feet above sealevel even on a good day. It was never a great candidate for massive waterside development before sea level rise and it's even less now. Is it even possible to protect the communities on Tampa Bay or Miami Bay over the next 50 years? Levees didn't help New Orleans.......

Wifey B: To those who don't understand us not moving our boats, well a couple of things. 1-We feel we have out boats protected adequately. We've taken advance steps. 2-Our boats are not our whole life. We have others here important to us. We have a house here. We have employees here to look after and a system to check on them all after, as soon as possible. This is our home and we like it here, and we'll still like it here tomorrow.

Now to those blasting Florida. Want to know the last time Fort Lauderdale had a major direct hit from a hurricane? Well, Wilma came close in 2005 but not FLL and then there was Cleo as a CAT 1 in 1999 and then you go back to 1950. Now Miami did have Andrew in 1992. How many have SC and GA and NC had since? how many have hit NJ and NY? How many have hit LA, MS and AL? How many have hit Texas? How many floods in various parts of the country? How many wildfires on the West Coast? How many Earthquakes in California?

I guess as you look at the Caribbean after this you'll blame it on people shouldn't live there. Doesn't matter they were born there. And Bahamas. And Cuba. What about Tsunami's? How much of the world do they eliminate? Australia gets cyclones. Vacate it. Just where is that spot you decree everyone should live? Well, you make your choice and I'll make mine. I was sympathetic to those in TX, to those hit by Katrina and Sandy. I was scared when a dam in Northern California was close to breaking. I hurt today for those in Barbuda. And I take zero joy or relief in the fact that Irma is going up the west coast instead of east coast of FL. The entire world is subject to natural disasters, some worse than others. They all hurt people. If you think we're idiots then fine. When you get hit by a natural disaster i'll still feel bad and won't remind you.

This worst-case hurricane planning scenario written in 2010 for Tampa Bay is pretty sobering. $250 billion in total economic losses? [emoji15]

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

As to running the boats away, there are many who ran them to the west coast of FL. During Matthew some ran to SC. Running from a hurricane is a gamble, sometimes a dangerous one. Many ran this time to Cancun. There's no absolutely perfect answer. Cardude moved his from Stuart to Lake Okeechobee. Well, the hurricane moved. I know some who ran across to the Bahamas, to Eleuthera. This storm could have turned and easily hit the Bahamas. Remember El Faro. We have the employees to have had our boats run north, could have kept running, for hundreds of miles. Our boats are in a canal that has never had more than 6' of surge. They're protected well, in our opinion as we spent a lot of time and effort planning. Many of us here even have boats in buildings or under covers built to 150 or 140 mph codes. I can't guarantee our choices being right. We'll only know after. There are 19 of us here at our house today. Anyone here could have flown out. Would they have stayed if they didn't feel safe? No. We flew back here just in time for the hurricane. It's out home for better or worse, in sickness and health, guess til death does us part, although we didn't use any of that in our wedding vows and aren't married to our house. But we are married to the community, far more than we ever imagined we would be.

And whatever happens, on Tuesday we'll start the recovery. Like everyone does I hope, we made what we felt were the best choices in our circumstance. I would never say they would be right for anyone else. We're all different and in different circumstances. It's easy now to say those on the West Coast should have fled and moved their boats.

Might we lose a boat? Yes. Might we lose our house? Possible. If we don't lose our lives then I'm ok with it. If we can help someone else, then even better. There are far more important aspects of our lives than our boats, even as much as we love them.

NewbieFromNJ said:

I really don't get. I've been reading all the posts on finding a safe mooring or marina and how to secure your boat. The likely hood of Florida being hit has been known for days. These are avid boaters with a passion for cruising. Their boats are relatively new or older with a lot of work put into them. Yet their content to stay in Florida. Why oh why don't the east coasters take a cruise north and the west coasters take a cruise west. Why take the risk. I really don't get it.

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Many of these people have other life commitments that are a higher priority than the boat. Family,homes and businesses are time consuming to secure as well.

BandB

I decided to stay on the Miami River and weather out the storm although we are more inland. It appears we dodged a bullet, at least I think so. We should know more late Sunday or Monday. I wish all our friends on both coasts of Florida the best of luck and to stay safe.

cardude01 said:

This worst-case hurricane planning scenario written in 2010 for Tampa Bay is pretty sobering. $250 billion in total economic losses? [emoji15]

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

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It's all very sobering. The economic losses in Houston are staggering and likely being far underestimated. Here, it's not just loss of homes or buildings or boats, but loss of livelihood, loss of life as they knew it. How quickly and to what degree will their jobs return. We know our commitment. It might it feel Monday like Paradise Lost. We can't give up though. I'm still upset over the ending of Camelot. I hope that this is less destructive than we're thinking it will be. Then I'm hoping we can start the recovery quickly and maybe even smarter where possible.

Sailor of Fortune said:

Many of these people have other life commitments that are a higher priority than the boat. Family,homes and businesses are time consuming to secure as well.

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I doubt seriously we'll be doing any long cruises anytime soon, perhaps local boating, perhaps living on our boat. We're retired, but come Tuesday we're coming out of retirement. We have Plan A, Plan B, Plan C and more and have no idea which we'll need or what we'll do. I've never been through a hurricane recovery but guess I better learn fast.

Coming out of retirement? Back to the old job or something new?

BandB said:

Wifey B: To those who don't understand us not moving our boats, well a couple of things. 1-We feel we have out boats protected adequately. We've taken advance steps. 2-Our boats are not our whole life. We have others here important to us. We have a house here. We have employees here to look after and a system to check on them all after, as soon as possible. This is our home and we like it here, and we'll still like it here tomorrow.



Now to those blasting Florida. Want to know the last time Fort Lauderdale had a major direct hit from a hurricane? Well, Wilma came close in 2005 but not FLL and then there was Cleo as a CAT 1 in 1999 and then you go back to 1950. Now Miami did have Andrew in 1992. How many have SC and GA and NC had since? how many have hit NJ and NY? How many have hit LA, MS and AL? How many have hit Texas? How many floods in various parts of the country? How many wildfires on the West Coast? How many Earthquakes in California?



I guess as you look at the Caribbean after this you'll blame it on people shouldn't live there. Doesn't matter they were born there. And Bahamas. And Cuba. What about Tsunami's? How much of the world do they eliminate? Australia gets cyclones. Vacate it. Just where is that spot you decree everyone should live? Well, you make your choice and I'll make mine. I was sympathetic to those in TX, to those hit by Katrina and Sandy. I was scared when a dam in Northern California was close to breaking. I hurt today for those in Barbuda. And I take zero joy or relief in the fact that Irma is going up the west coast instead of east coast of FL. The entire world is subject to natural disasters, some worse than others. They all hurt people. If you think we're idiots then fine. When you get hit by a natural disaster i'll still feel bad and won't remind you.

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Well said Wifey B! As your hubby has said many times life is about acceptable risk and managing the risk to those levels. We are in punta gorda and watching the surge predictions go from nothing early yesterday to maybe 10 feet tonight. We have secured Salty as best we can, packed our important or non replaceable stuff, and are at my brothers home further from the coast and a little north. Managing the risk to an acceptable level so far.

May all in the path of this storm be protected, blessed and calm going through this and the recovery. Prayers for all

John

cardude01 said:

Coming out of retirement? Back to the old job or something new?

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No, we've just been part time in our businesses on a very small basis but we'll jump in and help get everything back where it needs to be. Certainly won't be as bad as it might have been as we're only in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Challenge is we don't own the buildings so have to push landlords and their insurers. It's basically those who run things for us need clones, so we're the clones to be. We'd never un-retire for ourselves or go back to work for anyone else. The worst thing right now for everyone is just the wait. I've often found that even the worst isn't as bad as all the uncertainty. People are scared because they don't know what will happen.

Sailor of Fortune said:

Many of these people have other life commitments that are a higher priority than the boat. Family,homes and businesses are time consuming to secure as well.

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+1

Anyone got a bead on Janice on Seaweed during this?