If the information was all delivered in a information mode without emotion and without some emotional embellishment then for many it just wouldn't work. Each television station, each government official does it differently. I've studied Andrew and talked to many who were here and the most amazing aspect was the lack of deaths. People listened, largely listened to Bryan Norcross and you could see rubble after in Country Walk and people who rode it out there. I'm not seeing as much of what to do if you don't evacuate this time and that does bother me a bit but now on local media it's coming on more. I think now they are turning to advise those who are staying.
Is there such a thing as over-preparing? I don't know that there is. I didn't think the criticism of the Mayor of Houston not evacuating was justified nor do I think the criticism of the governors this time to warn people is justified. The point is saving lives and even if you believe some of them are politically motivated to not look bad, then that's in itself good if it saves lives. We have in this country an extremely low number of deaths in the worst natural disasters and that's a credit to the efforts of all.
Ultimately no one knows where it's going to hit. Yes, I think the reporters on Weather Channel are overly dramatic and less just strictly meteorologists than they should be but I also recognize the benefit in that. I believe ultimately it's beneficial. One thing also learned in the past is the need to declare states of emergency early and get the orders for help established as in some situations in the past governors have been too slow and the federal government can't mobilize help until requested from a governor.
Is it a perfect system? Far from it. But it still works pretty well. Then as to this particular hurricane, it's shown how destructive it can be, even without a direct hit. I look at the models as they change each day. Knowing the rate of normal error 4 and 5 days out, you really have two choices. Either more areas preparing than need to or fewer areas. I think I'd personally choose more areas.
Also what might appear as panic from some places doesn't so much here locally. Have people raided the stores of water and food they can eat without electricity? Yes. But that seems wise, not panic. Should people have been better prepared in advance? Yes, but many were not. We haven't panicked, we were prepared well in advance. We started preparing for this in 2012 when we moved here. But there are many who hadn't and they need to be helped and messages sent to them now.
I hope they don't wait too long to start reversing and telling people to find shelter not to head up the highways but seeing the crowds on the roads today, two days before it will hit most of our areas, doesn't concern me, instead makes me feel those who need to evacuate are doing so.
Should some be more prepared and knowledgeable? Of course but we're not all the same. A bit of obsessiveness made us well informed and prepared. But how many of you have ever checked the exact altitude and elevation of your home and checked history of surge in your location? Most haven't and to expect everyone to have done so isn't reasonable.
Look at the elderly in Florida, many with some level of disability. Then look at the population that wasn't here last time or wasn't even born for Andrew. Then Andrew can build a false sense of security too. It hit one area with incredible force but missed all others. That's nothing like Irma. Addressing it with just information might have worked well for some of us but for others dramatizing it is very necessary to get their attention.
We all have our own approaches too. If someone were to walk into this forum from a non-boating world, they'd look and say, "just look at those people worrying about their boats when lives are in danger or people's homes even? What kind of people are they?" Well, they're probably the same people worried about their family photo album or something Aunt Ethel gave them or the kitchen they just redecorated. I think though at the point it gets closer everyone starts to focus just on their lives. I heard someone ask a neighbor what was he going to do to protect his tennis court yesterday. The one with the tennis court just stared back and then politely said "nothing." He said to me after, "does he really think with a hurricane approaching I'm worried about my f..ing tennis court?" All the thoughts and actions won't be rational though.
One thing that has changed dramatically too is so much more media today. We see governors more, mayors more, FEMA more. People like knowing they're all involved. Yes, you also have stations competing for audiences too. No question that this is a ratings boon for Weather Channel, but then isn't this their purpose too? Just like catastrophes are major for all the news channels. So we see more of it than ever before. Careers are made and destroyed in events like this. Bryan Norcross saved his during Andrew. Al Michaels became known to many non-sports fans during the SF earthquake. But these are people who did a very professional job. If we lived in Connecticut, we didn't see it all for Andrew. Even recently we didn't see so much in advance of the hurricanes that hit Galveston. Is some of it fear mongering? I don't think so. I think it's trying to instill an appropriate amount of fear and action.
Now after it's over, I think we should allow criticism if it's aimed toward improvement. We're about to find out if the improvement in building codes after Andrew in South Florida has helped. In other areas we may find out they need improved codes. None of this helps the Hemingway House or much of old Key West but it's critical in rebuilding. I saw in South Texas a need for improved codes as they rebuild. That's not second guessing, that's learning.
Back to Donsan's post, I'm with psneeld. No one told those near Spartanburg to panic. The statements made, information given and individuals chose to panic. Two years ago when we were in Myrtle Beach during the storms that hit SC and NC, the mother of one of the girls with us called, concerned about her being there on the boat during the flood. Melissa said, "Mom, boats float. Remember Noah and his Ark?" I know the official words were to have food and water for at least three days. I'm sure some bought enough for three months. Well, that was personal reaction. But then it might even be good to make up for the neighbor who did nothing. I know we're better prepared than some of our neighbors. That will allow us to help them if our neighborhood gets hit hard. Evacuating too soon works better than too late.
I noticed the mention of family in Plantation. Well, there are some in Plantation who hit the roads evacuating. No one ever said for them to do so. The governor has repeatedly said, listen to your local authorities. We have members of our extended family in Plantation. They're new to FL and their NC family was panicked saying they should evacuate. They're actually working today. They have their house ready. But they said some neighbors had evacuated and left keys to their homes with them in case they got badly hit. They found humor that people were concerned their houses would get demolished and leaving keys.
Are there mistakes being made? Yes, and hopefully we'll learn from them, but I am not going to question the motives of anyone involved at this point, not even the politicians I generally deplore. I honestly believe that everyone is trying to do what they consider best in their roles. I'm watching a dramatization of storm surge right now. It's way over the top to those of us who actually understand surge. But we're a minority and for those who need warning, it is probably good.
Ultimately there will be far more people evacuated than necessary, far more help requested, far more people panicked than needed to be, but that's so much better than far less. I'm more worried about those on the FL west coast who thought only those on the East Coast needed to worry.
