Hurricane Irma

Post #45, the picture link gets updated, now they have shifted the track to east coat of Florida at 10:AM from west coast at 6:00AM.

A lot of uncertainty. Maybe it skips Florida entirely.

cardude01 said:

I'm realizing now I didn't leave the boat prepared correctly. There is a sailor there local who might get the jib down and do some of the other things on CDreamer's list. I really don't want to try to fly into the path of this storm and then get out again by Friday.

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I'd try to trust someone local if at all possible. I think you fell a bit for the illusion that Okeechobee is not a risk. No different than someone deciding NY isn't. Everywhere has some risk, some more than others perhaps. But I'd get someone to do what they can there and then ride it out. No two hurricanes are the same but in Texas the boats sure came through a lot better than the houses and on the whole the boats on the water better than those on land due to outdoor dry storage facilities collapsing and boats on land being blown over into each other. Now, the quantity of rain sank a few.

At some point, you just do what you can and then try to be safe.

cardude01 said:

Yeah, his input was take it down. He has a sailor buddy going to check it out for me, but if that fails I might have to fly down and figure it out. If I have time.

Just FYI, if I ever dock my boat next to you, I seem to be a hurricane magnet. [emoji23]

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I fly a lot commercially for work - several a week a lot of weeks. Speaking as a frequent airport visitor - I would anticipate it will be very difficult flying in and out of FL.

Business travel is dropping fast, but replaced with people all over the Caribbean going into FL then taking flights back out. What they do send in will be packed coming back out.

Airlines will stop sending planes into FL a day or so in advance, they don't want equipment sitting on the ground.

My thought, if you are going to fly in and out - go now - don't wait till later in the week. From the area you describe, you have Ft Meyers, Tampa, Orlando, a stretch up to Jacksonville. Anywhere else will be commuter planes without much capacity.

Just a travel thought if you are contemplating.

Up date

Sadly Irmas now on track to pass within 10 miles of my boat with sustained 180mph at 2100hrs AST tomorrow. I don't see any possibility of deviation. Knowing the force of hurricanes losing a boat is one thing, but the tragic loss of life that will occur as it passes through the Leewards and onto the Turks and Caicos is indeed very sad. So many of these islands are no more than sand spits 20ft high. My hopes are with my friends throughtout the leewards that they all come through well.

Not necessarily..... Irma may stop or slow traffic depending on forecasts. Hurricane Matthew had flights in and out of Tampa and Orlando pretty much on schedule, bases on demand, if I remember correctly. It was Eastern coastal Florida that was all but shut down.

Until the day of and reasonable predictions, the airlines will bend service but not cancel it until it is just unsafe.

We need to not overlook Jose, following in Irma's footsteps.

One at a time, if they still arent sure about Irma, why sweat Jose?

In my experience with hurricanes, you prepare for a decided action, but then dont follow through until each bench mark is made.


Most of the time it does miss, but if it does hit, it takes 100 percent of your effort to follow through in preparation or evacuation.

If you prepare for every threat.... great... if you have the time and money. If you wait till necessary, you better have both, but at least you didnt waste them on misses.

psneeld said:

One at a time, if they still arent sure about Irma, why sweat Jose?

In my experience with hurricanes, you prepare for a decided action, but then dont follow through until each bench mark is made.


Most of the time it does miss, but if it does hit, it takes 100 percent of your effort to follow through in preparation or evacuation.

If you prepare for every threat.... great... if you have the time and money. If you wait till necessary, you better have both, but at least you didnt waste them on misses.

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Because for those in the Leewards and Turks and Caicos as referenced in Martin J's post, as well as other islands, Jose is within days of Irma. It's currently shown to be north of Puerto Rico as a CAT 2 on Sunday. I'm not saying those of us in the states need to be concerned yet, but to some islands if it follows Irma closely it could be more damaging than a storm it's size normally would be. I wasn't instructing any action, simply said not to overlook.

I agree with not panicking over every hurricane possibility but be aware and prepared to plan and take action if necessary. We haven't taken any actions for Irma yet other than to just get back home. Boats are ready and house can be ready within 2 hours. Whether to move inland or not, to be determined.

BandB said:

Because for those in the Leewards and Turks and Caicos as referenced in Martin J's post, as well as other islands, Jose is within days of Irma. It's currently shown to be north of Puerto Rico as a CAT 2 on Sunday. I'm not saying those of us in the states need to be concerned yet, but to some islands if it follows Irma closely it could be more damaging than a storm it's size normally would be. I wasn't instructing any action, simply said not to overlook.

I agree with not panicking over every hurricane possibility but be aware and prepared to plan and take action if necessary. We haven't taken any actions for Irma yet other than to just get back home. Boats are ready and house can be ready within 2 hours. Whether to move inland or not, to be determined.

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BandB,

Discussion at lunch with a friend who has kids living in the Aventura area (apartment), he was wondering if should tell them to get in the car and move inland.

If you go inland - where would you go? Up the turnpike or 95?

FootballFan said:

BandB,

Discussion at lunch with a friend who has kids living in the Aventura area (apartment), he was wondering if should tell them to get in the car and move inland.

If you go inland - where would you go? Up the turnpike or 95?

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Well, in Fort Lauderdale, inland only means crossing Hwy 1. For us it's 1.3 miles. We have friends who live "on the other side" of the line. For us the definite evacuation zone is those east of the ICW. Those on the water but west of the ICW it depends on the storm and most are really elevated enough that surge won't reach them anyway.

FootballFan said:

BandB,

Discussion at lunch with a friend who has kids living in the Aventura area (apartment), he was wondering if should tell them to get in the car and move inland.

If you go inland - where would you go? Up the turnpike or 95?

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I generally would not go up the turnpike or 95. You don't know that isn't going to be where it hits. You don't want to be on the road. If you're going to leave town, then leave all potential areas. Fly to Vegas or something. But don't move from one potential striking area to another.

sdowney717 said:

Definitely panic a little is warranted if your in the way of it, do something if you can.

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Panic is warranted?

Surely you mean planned action and preparedness.

Panic?

Will pass that on, not advising just offering observation. Thank you for your input.


They are W of the ICW, I know the property and the area well. Suspect they are ok from Storm Surge - I think the risk is if the track tilts a bit north and storm comes ashore in that lower PB down to Homestead stretch with the winds it is packing.


I read a few minutes ago TS level of winds into upper Keys on Friday. If that holds, airlines last MIA/FLL flights will be Thursday afternoon evening, There will not be any equipment sitting on runways daylight on Friday.

FootballFan said:

Will pass that on, not advising just offering observation. Thank you for your input.


They are W of the ICW, I know the property and the area well. Suspect they are ok from Storm Surge - I think the risk is if the track tilts a bit north and storm comes ashore in that lower PB down to Homestead stretch with the winds it is packing.


I read a few minutes ago TS level of winds into upper Keys on Friday. If that holds, airlines last MIA/FLL flights will be Thursday afternoon evening, There will not be any equipment sitting on runways daylight on Friday.

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Sometimes people use 95 as a cut off and sometimes Hwy 1 but Dade's actual maps have blotches and squares here and there.

Here's a sheet with links to evacuation zones throughout the country.

http://flash.org/2016EvacuationZones.pdf

And here is Florida, specifically.

Florida DEM Disaster Preparedness Maps

menzies said:

Panic is warranted?

Surely you mean planned action and preparedness.

Panic?

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Yes, definitely a little panic is a good thing, might get people motivated that like to just not do anything. they could be killed.

So do you have a flight or fight reaction to a CAT 5 hurricane?
Maybe both is a good thing, but not just fight, get out of harm's way, if you can by flight, this monster storm is bigger than most can handle.

101TUG said:

Hello hello sorry for black out I was at sea like you can imagine...

Sunday afternoon I made full south, I arrived yesterday end of the day in ST Lucia under Martinique.

This one is huge Cat 4 that going to destroy a lot, Gustavia Harbor are empty of boat only around 10 decay sailboat on water.

ST Maarten going to have lot of damage too and sure some boat going to finished in matches.

even 240NM down the swell going to be 12' but glad I'm on Rodney Bay Marine really protected for surge, I'm normally suppose to have no wind here :roll eyes:and I really hope.

strong think to my family and friends stay up fingers cross...we will see in 2 days how is going.

good luck and be prepared to all people where Irma going to pass

Hugues

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Tug 101, Hugues...... Very good Move!!!! that is what I would have done...you have saved your beautiful ship!

Catastrophic,... at 3pm EST Tuesday watching the weather channel.., for St Barts, Antigua, Barbuda, All the Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra...n east end of PR...Turks and Caicos. all the southern Bahamas...north coast Dom. Rep..and beyond going WNW up thru Florida Straits...all places I've anchored and sailed...180 MPH....OMG!!!!!
unimaginable.. then after all this...the Keys and Florida....?!???....Martin J...... ughhh!! All... please let us what happens in a day or two...(fingers crossed)
long gas lines in Miami right now....mandatory evacuation for all visitors in Key West!!!!

sdowney717 said:

Yes, definitely a little panic is a good thing, might get people motivated that like to just not do anything. they could be killed.

So do you have a flight or fight reaction to a CAT 5 hurricane?
Maybe both is a good thing, but not just fight, get out of harm's way, if you can by flight, this monster storm is bigger than most can handle.

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Defining harms way is difficult as everyone sees it different. Evacuation zones are based on surge, not on wind. Based on surge, I have no reason to move during even a 5, but I'm in a mandatory evacuation zone for a CAT 5 so probably will if a 5 hits us.

Now, safety from the winds depends on protecting yourself in your home. How new or old is the home, what construction, are their areas in it you feel safer. Getting mattresses and covering yourself so flying items don't hit you or staying in bathrooms or halls.

Each person has to assess their own risk.

When you live on or near a coast, you should have created a plan long ago and executing it should be easy. Everyone in South Florida is water and grocery and propane and gas shopping.

Panic and healthy fear are two different things. It's fine to fear what might happen if one can just make rational decisions while doing so.

My one urgency was to get home to be with family and friends. I know to some, perhaps many, that sounds stupid. We could have stayed in Charlotte, NC and been safe.

This is a new one to me but logical. The Keys have issued a mandatory evacuation of all visitors. Now some of the areas will evacuate residents too, later. It does make sense to get visitors cleared out first.

FF said:

After almost 11 years of nothing ,a lot of new folks in FL may find out about the value of "Be Prepaired".

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Why prepare? Ain't that what FEMA is for?

Unfortunately many are going to find out the hard way.

sdowney717 said:

Yes, definitely a little panic is a good thing, might get people motivated that like to just not do anything. they could be killed.

So do you have a flight or fight reaction to a CAT 5 hurricane?
Maybe both is a good thing, but not just fight, get out of harm's way, if you can by flight, this monster storm is bigger than most can handle.

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Both is not a good thing. You can't change your mind half-way through.

Run, run, run.

It appears that many in Ft Lauderdale area are taking this one seriously. Gas and propane stations are 15-20 deep. Near my house grocery stores jammed, all bread, water, Gatoraid, Iced tea, canned goods shelves empty. Store employees were just rolling carts of whatever they had into the isles.
Hearing stories that north bound roads already jamming up. But realistically, nearest available safe hotel rooms would probably be somewhere around Tennessee, if your lucky.
Models have this thing going north right up the state, just don't know which side yet.

The wind probability model just changed...

HURRICANE IRMA

Some probability of it heading back out to sea.....

BerettaRacer said:

It appears that many in Ft Lauderdale area are taking this one seriously. Gas and propane stations are 15-20 deep. Near my house grocery stores jammed, all bread, water, Gatoraid, Iced tea, canned goods shelves empty. Store employees were just rolling carts of whatever they had into the isles.
Hearing stories that north bound roads already jamming up. But realistically, nearest available safe hotel rooms would probably be somewhere around Tennessee, if your lucky.
Models have this thing going north right up the state, just don't know which side yet.

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Wifey B: We were in TN and supposed to still be there.

I've heard stories about the hurricane crowd in FL that if the hurricane misses they try to return even the water. At least people are preparing and taking it seriously.

bigthaw said:

Tug 101, Hugues...... Very good Move!!!! that is what I would have done...you have saved your beautiful ship!

Catastrophic,... at 3pm EST Tuesday watching the weather channel.., for St Barts, Antigua, Barbuda, All the Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra...n east end of PR...Turks and Caicos. all the southern Bahamas...north coast Dom. Rep..and beyond going WNW up thru Florida Straits...all places I've anchored and sailed...180 MPH....OMG!!!!!
unimaginable.. then after all this...the Keys and Florida....?!???....Martin J...... ughhh!! All... please let us what happens in a day or two...(fingers crossed)
long gas lines in Miami right now....mandatory evacuation for all visitors in Key West!!!!

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was easy decision due to the size of the baby.
I'm really happy to did this trip down.
I have some news form St Marrten lagon are full of boat, could you imagine with 160kt of wind:bang head:

I will give you news all friends and some family stay in St Barth..

If communication still working

Hugues

cardude01 said:

So for all you x-sailors out there, should I remove my jib? My boat is in central FL near La Belle. Some models have the storm passing close to here with winds possibly 50 plus.

I tied the boat for a hurricane when I left with many lines tied to strong piles on land, but I didn't think about removing the jib because I'm not an experienced sailor, and frankly I don't even know how to remove it.

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As others have likely told you, yes. Take down the roller surfing jib. It is also helpful to try and secure the halyards on the side of the mast so they aren't banging against it. With really strong wind it creates unnecessary wear on the rig.

kev_rm said:

The wind probability model just changed...

HURRICANE IRMA

Some probability of it heading back out to sea.....

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I haven't seen much change in the computer models or the ensemble models. The HWRF had that path, although not necessarily out to sea once it got to the gulf. There are still a couple of ensemble models that have it just brushing by NC and going out in the Atlantic. Still the concensus of models has it hitting Florida. The computer models are much more compact than the ensemble models.

Wunderground snuck in Category 6 at the bottom of one of their pages.

If it follows the path going west of Key West, it will still hit the keys very hard.

BandB said:

I haven't seen much change in the computer models or the ensemble models. The HWRF had that path, although not necessarily out to sea once it got to the gulf. There are still a couple of ensemble models that have it just brushing by NC and going out in the Atlantic. Still the concensus of models has it hitting Florida. The computer models are much more compact than the ensemble models.

Wunderground snuck in Category 6 at the bottom of one of their pages.

If it follows the path going west of Key West, it will still hit the keys very hard.

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This northward bulge was not in the model until the 7AST update.

What exactly does that bulge mean?

To me it just means a small intensification or enlargement of the wind field....nothing about direction change.

psneeld said:

What exactly does that bulge mean?

To me it just means a small intensification or enlargement of the wind field....nothing about direction change.

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Its not symmetric.