Cardude in Harvey bullseye

cardude01 said:

Good luck Baker. Stay safe.

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THanks amigo!!! You too!!! Port O'connor is gonna get BLASTED!!!!

Baker said:

What exactly are you disagreeing with?

I think you may have misunderstood me. I said you tell me a MAJOR HURRICANE that has dumped shitloads of rain ANYWHERE in this country in history. This is NOTHING like TS Allison. TS Allison came ashore on a Tuesday as a minor tropical storm with 40mph winds. It went up into East Texas and then came back down to Houston on Friday/Saturday as a subtropical system. Subtropical systems have a tendency to meander. Major Hurricanes do not....or at least they never have in anything I can remember. Maybe you can enlighten me on one that has? I am not saying this one is not gonna smash us with rain. I am just saying a Major Hurricane never has. Weak systems have. That was my point.

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Beulah, 1967
Camille, 1969
Georges, 1998
Easy, 1950

On July 25, 1979, TS Claudette arrived in Alvin, TX and stalled, dropping 43 inches over the next 24 hours. That amount still stands as the greatest one-day rainfall in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. I can't even imagine what kind of damage that would do today to Houston and the surrounding area.

I really hope "Baker's Theory" that John mentioned holds true this time around. Like him, my boat with its generator, air conditioning and galley is a backup plan, but I have to be able to get to it. Both our boats are kept in a marina well known as a 'hurricane hole' so not worried at all about wind, but during Ike, the parking lot was well under water for a while.

Just a solid stream of tornado and weather warnings now as the bands begin to pound our part of the Texas coast. They could go on for days depending on the path of the storm. Yikes.

Here we go.

Beulah was very much in the same area but far stronger. Let's hope this one isn't similar as Beulah also spawned a record number of tornadoes.

Be careful TX folks - its always the storm/water surge, not so much the winds. Been there done that. Prayers your way!

LarryM said:

On July 25, 1979, TS Claudette arrived in Alvin, TX and stalled, dropping 43 inches over the next 24 hours. That amount still stands as the greatest one-day rainfall in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. I can't even imagine what kind of damage that would do today to Houston and the surrounding area.

Here we go.

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Again....a tropical storm...

Baker said:

Again....a tropical storm...

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Exactly.

I'm amazed at watching television and Corpus Christi, with eye of storm 31 miles away, and all the traffic, all the people just driving around like it's a normal day and reporter having a hard time standing up.

Baker said:

Again....a tropical storm...

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The ones I mentioned were all CAT 3-CAT 5. Granted all were before I was born.

Just became a CAT 4.

Current Seas up to 32'.

I'm thinking of all of you my friends in the path of this one. It's a cat4 now and NOAA is not very good at predicting future strength. Yesterday they were saying it would go ashore as a cat3. Take this one seriously.

We had a mandatory evacuation effective 6:00 this morning. We left about 8:00 and were following a procession of ambulances, fire trucks and police cars. You are truly on your own if you choose to ignore these warning.

Be safe guys!!

sandy was basically just rain and surge ............ did a number on Jersey and NYC

HopCar said:

I'm thinking of all of you my friends in the path of this one. It's a cat4 now and NOAA is not very good at predicting future strength. Yesterday they were saying it would go ashore as a cat3. Take this one seriously.

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Exactly my thoughts, Parks. Wish I could do something besides sitting here watching it happen on the weather channel. Of course, we live in FL, and we're also rolling the dice. It could be us next week.

It does look like this thing is going right over Victoria. Sheesh.

Yeah....when I said you were in the bullseye, I didn't mean you were in the eye of the bullseye! Try to keep us informed ole Buddy.

Our daughter and family recently moved into a nice brick house in "Circle C", Austin TX. Although well inland... Food store shelves are getting empty. Lots o' rain predicted. HEV store is serving campaign!

Best luck to all in storm path. Be careful, stay safe!

That damn storm is just sitting there grinding on things. Makes me think there is danger of docklines chafing through.

My parents and sister have little beach houses right on the water in Port Alto Tx.

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Uh-Oh

HopCar said:

That damn storm is just sitting there grinding on things. Makes me think there is danger of docklines chafing through.

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Hard to tell what risks it presents. I just saw Corpus Christi with a boil water order. There haven't been as many photos as I would have expected published yet. I have seen at least couple of people are trapped in collapsed buildings in Rockport, including a senior center. 120,000 in Corpus Christi without power. There are photos indicating Rockport high school has been destroyed. Apparently the injured have been moved to the jail which they're using for medical purposes.

I guess much depends on what harbor as the area of the most extreme winds seems relatively small while a large area of lighter winds, rain and surge. Watching a reporter in Cardude's town right now.

I'm thinking doubled and tripled lines at floating docks should be in fairly decent shape but at fixed docks I think serious chafing could be an issue. Now for those floating docks with pilings shorter than the surge, real problems. Getting very different views of things on national coverage vs. local San Antonio and Houston. The local ones are predicting reduction to a CAT 1 by Saturday. Wunderground has it dropping to a CAT 2 by noon and CAT 1 tomorrow evening. One thing we forget in South Florida is that other places don't have the same building standards we have today.

I think it can still take so many different paths today.

Corpus Christi meteorologists have launched a weather balloon they say. I am trying to picture that and what it will find out.

Now down to CAT 3, but only moving at 6 mph. Making it's second landfall.

It's moving sooooooo slowly. We still have power for now. Getting gusts over 50.

cardude01 said:

It's moving sooooooo slowly. We still have power for now. Getting gusts over 50.

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Hang in there!!!!!

Watching from afar, hope it weakens quickly but also does not bring too much rain! Stay safe TF people, and others of course!

Well, the first thing I did this AM was flick on the TV to find the center grinding its way from Rockport to Victoria. Now Cat 1, but such a slow moving 80 MPH storm is going to eventually pry loose a lot of stuff, and after it prys it loose, it's going to soak it till it's mush.

Waiting on updates and pics for damage this morning. We were down on Thursday to batten the hatches, but now back in SA. 1st time we have had to prepare for something like this and I will be amazed to see what has happened with marina going through the eye wall.

The green dot is our marina where Cardude used to be parked. Bill - I wish we had gone to FL with you!

Knee Deep, Where is your boat? I hope you find her well!

Does not look like the surge was that bad. NOAA tide stations in the Corpus areas show peak of about 6-7' max at landfall.