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Old 08-22-2016, 11:29 PM   #16
AusCan
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City: Adelaide
Vessel Name: Kokanee
Vessel Model: Cuddles 30 Pilot House Motor Sailer
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3,218
Our marine wind predictions are generally fairly accurate (+/- 10 knots) over 2-3 days of forecast. Sure, there are local variations, especially close to land. Occasionally, when there are fast moving systems coming in some unpredicted things happen. Forecasts over 3 days are a guesstimate at best.


Windytd.com and similar sites are great for seeing the overall structure of weather patterns, but for wind speed of a particular area, I use the government bureau of meteorology forecast, with personal local knowledge mixed in.

I once got hit by a 50+knot wind (which only lasted for 10 minutes) 12 hours ahead of a forecasted wind warning. I expect small localised systems like this to be very difficult to predict. I don't ever expect technology to be able to decipher mother nature 100%. There are just too many variables.
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