Where will the trawler market go?

BandB said:

I do think the more recent the (timber) boats, the more forgiving they will be. There certainly are some weaknesses though that will still show up.

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In general, quite the opposite - the large pieces of the best woods are gone, baby, gone. The skills for working with them, ditto. The tools and fastenings, same.

It's somewhat similar with house construction. "Dimensioned" lumber is smaller, and gets shittier by the year. "Engineering" really means getting by with the cheapest and skimpiest material possible. Yes, there is improved knowledge of (for instance) earthquake and fire protection, but the material quality will make your head hurt.

I think the "trawler" market in new boats is done and gone forever.

I think the "expedition" boat market is doing pretty well as evidenced by Nordhavn KK and others.

as far as the "large boat" market I think Pilothouse King got it right on. People that can afford large boats want the versatility of speed.

This latest meltdown of 2007 to present has changed the boating industry by eliminating some really good players from the market. This will eventually turn around as people in the demographic that can afford "mid size" and "mid price point" boats start spending money again.

CPseudonym said:

Locally I was absent from the boating scene for roughly 30 years before returning a couple years ago. When my dad had his houseboat we had our choice of well over 100 marinas, dozens of service yards, fuel docks everywhere, and tons of fellow active boaters enjoying the waters. Activity everywhere and the camaraderie was great.

Fast forward 30 years and plying these same rivers and sloughs is reminiscent of a John Steinbeck novel. Derelict boats, marinas, service yards, RV parks, the rental fleets are largely gone and very few really well kept marinas left. One entire former thriving boating community with lots of former upscale homes and marinas is largely a ghost town filled with poverty stricken drug addicts. Former proud marinas have weeds growing where the busy docks once where and dead head logs are what's left of launch ramps. River side bars and bistros once packed are no longer.

It can all return someday but it will take decades of investment and development to restore lost infrastructure and that means a thriving economy flush with disposable, recreational income... Where will the trawler market be, not here likely. At least locally to this area.

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CPseudonym--You and I share the same experience. My last memories of boating before purchasing Sherpa were Florida boating during the 1980s. Based on the data I've seen, this was the peak of recreational boat ownership and the typical boat owner was far younger then. Trawlers, sailboats, and all sorts of boats populated the ICW. I have photos of popular anchor spots that were teeming with afore. The ICW is now barren compared to years past. The middle class can no longer afford the hobby let alone a trawler. The selection of trawlers (particularly FD hulls) is very, very limited. My father purchased his first trawler at 38, which was not terribly atypical in the late 70s. I purchased my first trawler at the same age and it is nearly unheard of!

I have a feeling "trawler" builders will continue to focus more on the 1% while the market for the serfdom will consist mostly of personal water craft, open fishing boats, and small cuddy cabin cruisers.

I know very few people would want to buy my little trawler: too slow. Like trawlers in general, it appeals to a very small and dwindling group.

I am 67 now so the baby boomer thing is something I know about. The trawler market never took the hit that the Sea Ray and convertible market took in the last recession, trawler buyers are like their boats , slow and steady and they planned for a purchase for years in advance.
Pensioners were never mid size boat buyers, it is the folks that will be selling their business that they built for most of their lives that will buy a bigger boat to travel on in retirement. Just as after the "luxury tax" that went in effect here in the US in 1990 sales slowed for awhile so there were limited models a few years old in 1995, there will be limited models now that are only a few years old.

In all fairness houseboats have always been cheaper than mid size cruisers but I wonder this question.

Mom and Dad owned 2 houses and bought/maintained a 3 year old houseboat in 1980 on a combined gross income of $70K/year, how many folks can afford to buy a 3 year old boat with the equivalent income today?

They where roughly 45 years old at the time.

CPseudonym said:

In all fairness houseboats have always been cheaper than mid size cruisers but I wonder this question.

Mom and Dad owned 2 houses and bought/maintained a 3 year old houseboat in 1980 on a combined gross income of $70K/year, how many folks can afford to buy a 3 year old boat with the equivalent income today?

They where roughly 45 years old at the time.

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You ( and us) should've paid closer attention to Mom and Dad then!!!

CPseudonym said:

In all fairness houseboats have always been cheaper than mid size cruisers but I wonder this question.

Mom and Dad owned 2 houses and bought/maintained a 3 year old houseboat in 1980 on a combined gross income of $70K/year, how many folks can afford to buy a 3 year old boat with the equivalent income today?

They where roughly 45 years old at the time.

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Wouldn't $70K in 1980 be a little over $200K today? The three year old 80 foot houseboat around $500-550K. Smaller houseboats in the $300K range. I don't know. Certainly would require a lot of debt for most and on top of two houses, I think you're right, can't afford, although seems like many do it and overextend themselves.

Any guess on what an equivalent houseboat cost then?

The squeeze of time and $ that someone mentioned earlier is right on the money. My wife and I are in our 40's, a little on the young side for the trawler market, I guess. Our old boat was 30 plus years old, 8 knots and had quite a bit of teak. I enjoyed maintaining it and learned a lot. She is still going strong.

But for our next boat we just couldn't swing the time for an 8 knot cruise, or the constant upkeep that an older boat deserves. We bought a 2005 Mainship 40. Still not the fastest (15 knots) and by no means maintenance free, but it suits our kids/sports/work/aging parents life much better. Also it is a lower to mid quality, less expensive boat that we could pay cash for.

I think we say something about the future of the market.

And, oh by the way, I'm in the midst of a varnishing project. The trim inside the salon door needed recoating. It is 4" wide by 5' long. It's filling my desires for varnish....just enough.

BandB said:

Wouldn't $70K in 1980 be a little over $200K today? The three year old 80 foot houseboat around $500-550K. Smaller houseboats in the $300K range. I don't know. Certainly would require a lot of debt for most and on top of two houses, I think you're right, can't afford, although seems like many do it and overextend themselves.

Any guess on what an equivalent houseboat cost then?

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I checked an online inflation calculator and your figure is correct. I recall my mother mentioning that they paid around $40,000 in 1980 for a new, well-customized 26' Outer Reef--that's over $115K in today's dollars. Not bad given current prices of Rangers and Nordic Tugs around that size. One most consider though that many of today's "trawlers" would be far more affordable without all the HP. The Nordic has a 110HP standard while the Outer Reef was almost half that. I bought used because a new FD pocket trawler was impossible to find (unless I built one).

BandB said:

Wouldn't $70K in 1980 be a little over $200K today?

Any guess on what an equivalent houseboat cost then?

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I think that a $200K combined income could buy a house and a nice boat today just like $70K could in 1980, and just like my dads $45K income could buy nice things in the 1960's.

To do it required carrying debt then, and it requires carrying debt now.

In my opinion a big part of the problem affecting people today is that traditionally large purchases were made in peoples older years. That is when the kids were grown, and the house was paid off or was a relatively "small" mortgage because the mortgage stayed the same as income rose.

Now days people don't stay in their home, so they never pay it off, and have a mortgage payment at the edge of their income level their entire adult life.

Back then you didn't have to fund your retirement, you had a pension. Now you have a self funded 401K

Back then your employer paid for your medical insurance. Now most of us have to pay hundreds a month in addition to what our employers pay.

Back then we had trade tech schools. A smaller percentage of kids went to a university. Now every parent thinks its their responsibility to make sure their kids go to the university, on their dime. With our non competitive schooling we fail too realize that not every kid is actually smart enough to be a rocket scientist, and that the plumber down the street makes more money than we do sitting in our cubicle.

Heard on the dock the other week that Grand Banks has returned to profitability after a bunch of years of losing money.

Marin said:

Heard on the dock the other week that Grand Banks has returned to profitability after a bunch of years of losing money.

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Yes, and they hope to get off the watch list on the Singapore exchange. Their sales were up considerably and their costs down. Now have a new CEO. Over 60% of their sales to US. Their stock is up from it's low point but still far less than it once was.

Where will the Trawler Market go?

meridian said:

Marin made an interesting comment the other day.

With the baby boomers retiring at 10,000/day for the next 2 decades, I would think the market should be good for the near future.

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It seems to me that the market for Trawler-like boats (the definition is difficult as people know) - is dependent upon three key things:

1. Number of people interested in trawler boats/cruising (i.e. total possible market) - largely driven by baby boomer retirees.

2. Net assets of those people

3. Price of fuel (and fuel efficiency of boats).


Here is the data I could find:

1. Baby Boomer Trend - starting to weaken and will continue to weaken for a decade or two.


2. Net Assets: Many baby boomers have lost a significant portion of their retirement funds due to the great recession - and they are at an age where those resources will not be regenerated.


3. Fuel Prices - heading up: If the operating costs of a trawler continues go to up like it has during the past two decades - we will see a significant impact on the demand.
http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/OilPriceExpFit.gif


So - I think the trawler market will go down / shrink considerably over the next 10 to 15 years.

Bay Pelican, a 42 ft Krogen, when new in 1985 sold for $85,000 US.

Bucky, our Krogen 36 North-Sea Manatee, sold for 88K in 1987.

We are in our early 40s and on our first trawler (OK, SD boat). Having grown up in New England, a pilothouse was just what I always wanted, and comming from a sailboat, the slower speeds were not an issue. We travel a lot faster than before, and in a straight line, too). We make a good living, but no where near the 1%. We were only able to afford our NT due to lots of hard work and savings, and by doing all the work on the boat ourselves. There is no way we could afford this boat if we were checkbook boaters. Getting back to the comments, it sounds like we will be ready for our next boat just at the time when the recession/lack of boats will impact what is available to us. We bought Carolena II when she was 10 years old, and plan to sell her when she is around 16 so that new buyers can still get financing if they want (ie will be less than 20 years old). I sure hope there are some 10 year old Nordic Tug 37/39s on the market when we get to that stage. We will probably have the next boat into retirement - at least that is the plan unless we can somehow afford our dream Nordhavn by then.

The so called trawler market for nice clean vessels is pretty good in the PNW, so say the brokers who are combing flotillas for listings. Largely because so many enjoy the cruising grounds from Tacoma to Glacier Bay. Every mile offers something it seems, so going slow is not a burden if one has the time and enjoys the cruising experience.

With the long distances to be traveled when going to AK, good fuel economy and range are pretty important. Some friends have a Westport 112. Their favorite speed is 10 knots. Again, to enjoy the PNW experience, extend their range and they have the time.

Two years ago we were seriously looking at different "trawler" vessels. We had about 6 favorites, all sold within a few months. Yes, the Taiwan style 30 to 36 foot trawlers are gone as new builds. For the well kept newer 36 to 50 foot trawlers in the used market I sense life is good.

sunchaser said:

The so called trawler market for nice clean vessels is pretty good in the PNW, so say the brokers who are combing flotillas for listings.

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I know brokers in Florida who specialize in Trawlers and complained about shortage of listings as well. Now part of that I'm afraid is trawler owners not selling and moving up, but holding on to what they have.

With house prices stuck at crap levels , there will be a demand for old boats but the creation of new boats will stay low.

What is required is a change in building methods to lower new boat prices by 50% or more.

The methods exist , although not inexpensive to start production .

The interiors will no longer consist of a forest of dead trees , much simpler like on a modern fish killer.

I bought my trawler when I was 30 yrs old and don't every plan on selling. I would give it to my son before selling it to much sweat equity and my wife would never let buy another.

Building Methods to reduce building cost

FF said:

With house prices stuck at crap levels , there will be a demand for old boats but the creation of new boats will stay low.

What is required is a change in building methods to lower new boat prices by 50% or more.

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That was one thing I was trying to work on with this Pilgrim project

http://www.trawlerforum.com/forums/s3/designing-new-coastal-cruiser-7936-3.html#post169651

KSS construction ideas

Cabin Superstructure Construction

The methods exist , although not inexpensive to start production .

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I was also taking this 'start-up cost' into consideration.....ie

Why steel for the hull,...why not fiberglass like most other production boats these days? One of the key words here is 'production boat'. Sure making up the plugs, then the molds for a production run of boats makes sense. But what if you don't really know how many copies you may build,...what if its a limited run geared for a specific market?? Then you are trapped with an up-front, expensive bit of tooling that you can not amortize over a goodly number of vessels.
....more here
Trawler Forum - View Single Post - Redesigning the Pilgrim 40 Trawler / Canal Boat

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FF said:

....The interiors will no longer consist of a forest of dead trees , much simpler like on a modern fish killer.

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Cutting Labor Hrs @ Composite Woods

Wood Trim

I grew up in Pittsburgh Pa., known for decades as the largest inland port in the US. My dad has us boatingin the late 60s and 70s, think Tri-Hull outboards and Sweet 16s stacked like sardines at the local family marina. It was primarily a "blue collar" hobby. Most of our Marina boaters were Mill workers, union guys making good money. Those jobs are gone and so is that boating community. I don't know where new boaters are coming from.

Iknowimcrazy said:

I grew up in Pittsburgh Pa., known for decades as the largest inland port in the US. My dad has us boatingin the late 60s and 70s, think Tri-Hull outboards and Sweet 16s stacked like sardines at the local family marina. It was primarily a "blue collar" hobby. Most of our Marina boaters were Mill workers, union guys making good money. Those jobs are gone and so is that boating community. I don't know where new boaters are coming from.

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New boaters are coming older on the whole. Now plenty of exceptions as many still start young with their parents. While money is a big issue, it's by far not the only one. The biggest may be TIME. Today's schedules don't provide it. Parents working long hours, many days, and getting little vacation, then exhausted when they do. Even the kids. Teenagers today often have many extra responsibilities. Sports, band, debate, honor society tasks. After school and weekends being eaten away. Boating is a very expensive hobby and, if you don't have the time to do it, hardly justifies the investment. Look at the boats that sit unused. Family time isn't the priority it needs to be. Not with us, not with employers, not even with schools.

I agree, I don't know where a steady stream of bigger boaters would come from either. Oh sure, runabouts on a trailer will always be around, or bigger boats for the guys who sold a company, or even some of the Boomers who are now inheriting their parents' assets - but to me those financial situations are a pretty small fraction of the population in general.

But then on the other hand we just finished a weeklong charter in the San Juans. The number of million dollar boats in Roche Harbor was amazing. So maybe piles of disposible dollars are still out there and I just don't understand the sources.

There will always be million dollar boats at Roche Harbor. How many 30s are at the local Marina? I don't see many "transition" boats anymore. Lots of $50K runabouts financed over 10 years or more. Tons of PWCs. Maybe a dozen 40'+ in the $300k to $500k range.

I think there are several factors that have reduced the number of potential big boat buyers. This has affected the market, and I think it will continue to affect the market.

B and B mentioned time. Time is a big factor. I have noticed my sons generation is different from my generation in that the kids have more activities taking up their time. There has always been little league, but now, kids seem to be involved in more and more time committed activities, reducing the parents ability to take off for weekends on the boat.

Another factor affecting time and money is that we are having kids later in life. It used to be seeing babies to 30+ year olds was pretty rare. Now its the norm it seems. Well, a 30+ parent is going to have a financial and time commitment to their children much later in life than a 20 year old parent. This means that as a persons 50's, they are likely to not have the disposable income or the time at that age that previous generations had. For those that do not believe this just ask a true empty nester. I can tell you that I have more disposable income as a empty nester than I ever dreamed about raising kids. Kids are expensive, pure and simple.

Yet another factor is home ownership. Now days paying off your home seems to be discouraged by many. Upsizing your home, and or refinancing to pull out the equity is more the norm. The problem with that is people are always paying a full mortgage based on the current value of their home. Think about it... If you bought a home in your 20's by the time you were in your 50's it would be either paid off or the mortgage would seem pretty trivial since values and wages keep going up. That means that in their 50's people don't have the disposable income to buy a large boat.

Singly these and other factors may not seem to have much meaning, but when you combine them often in the same person, or family large boat ownership gets harder and harder.

People used to have "note burning" parties after they paid their mortgages off. Now reverse mortgages are the norm.

>If you bought a home in your 20's by the time you were in your 50's it would be either paid off or the mortgage would seem pretty trivial since values and wages keep going up. That means that in their 50's people don't have the disposable income to buy a large boat.<

A plot of home prices vs currency depreciation (aka Inflation) from 1900 shows there is very little increase in inflation adjusted prices for homes for a century.

When a VW was $1100 bucks your home was $15K, today the VW is $20K and your house is $220K .

The only thing home ownership got was an interest deduction on progressive taxation.

My father was a plumber on large jobs. In 1950 he earned $75 a week gross and after fed and state and NYC taxes taxes took home $69 .

Today a plumber would be happy with $750 a week but the after tax take home would hardly be $690.

Thats where your boat money went , to the TAXMAN

FF said:

>If you bought a home in your 20's by the time you were in your 50's it would be either paid off or the mortgage would seem pretty trivial since values and wages keep going up. That means that in their 50's people don't have the disposable income to buy a large boat.<

A plot of home prices vs currency depreciation (aka Inflation) from 1900 shows there is very little increase in inflation adjusted prices for homes for a century.

When a VW was $1100 bucks your home was $15K, today the VW is $20K and your house is $220K .

The only thing home ownership got was an interest deduction on progressive taxation.

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Thats the point entirely. If you bought a home for $15K way back when, even if you had a mortgage it would seem like a really small mortgage in todays dollars. That would free up your monthly income to buy a large boat.

If on the other hand you kept refinancing your home, pulling out the equity, or if you kept trading up homes, you'd be making a mortgage payment today on a $220K home. That would not leave enough left over at the end of the month to pay a large boat payment.

It gets even worse when you consider retirement. If you'd just kept your home, it would be paid off and you could live rent free during your retirement years. Instead you're stuck with a mortgage payment during your retirement.

I really hope someone young reads this and thinks about it. I think the average TF member is frankly too old to do anything about it. By the time you are in your 50's you're there or you are not.