Go/No Go

psneeld said:

Dang old timers...

Bet we could fill a forum with old expressions totally lost on so many....

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No doubt in my mind that the term came from crusty old navy nukes. The official title is the Fission Product Yield Curve.

BandB said:

What would that be, something like 6' at 1 or 1.5 seconds? A bit extreme.

We did learn when we hit the water the first time in Washington that waves are much different in the PNW. Wind waves plus the swell and often a lot of swell. When we first arrived weeks ago was 4' wind and 10' swell. But then period of swell generally very long. That same day the period was 13 seconds.

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It's not so much they are different...you just see more swell than back East...and that's what makes the inlets so bad out there...

There's plenty of times the North Atlantic swell can be deceiving....not too bad when in open water but try and run some inlets with a screaming out going tidal current and the next thing you know you are on the crest of a breaker headed inbound faster than your boat was designed for.

High Wire said:

From Wikipedia..."
Mary Jane "Mae" West (August 17, 1893 – November 22, 1980)[1] was an American actress, singer, playwright, screenwriter and sex symbol whose entertainment career spanned seven decades.
Known for her bawdy double entendres,..."

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Wifey B: She was so ahead of her time. Super cool. Performer, playwright, a lot of genius in those....in her. And I do love double entendres. Groucho Marx was super with them too. They use to replay his shows on late night tv. The censors back then didn't even catch his best ones. Then Johnny Carson. Too bad Mae West died 7 months before I was born. I would have liked her.

High Wire said:

Typical NJ coastal forecast has wave height and dominant period. Only recently have they added Swell direction. Up to last year it was wave height and period only. It was up to you to figure out if it was a 5 ft chop or 5 ft swell:

COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- [SIZE=+1]342 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]TONIGHT[/SIZE] SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS.
[SIZE=+1]SUN[/SIZE] E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS.
[SIZE=+1]SUN NIGHT[/SIZE] SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS.
[SIZE=+1]MON[/SIZE] SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS.

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The part I listen for (on the east coast -- the Gulf of Mexico is a whole 'nother ball of wax) is

Wave height
and
(most important of all)
time between waves

A short duration between the waves means rough seas.
What I look for is 10 seconds between wave heights.

I know from past listening, that once I have the ten second margin the weather will remain okay FOR ME for at least 36 hours.

Anything less than ten seconds and I do not venture off-shore.
Please note: Seaweed is a coastal cruiser and not designed for the type of weather you big guys can handle. I have to be careful.

Here, in the Gulf of Mexico I can discern no pattern for deteriorating weather -- but I've only been listening for 1.5 years. I do know this broken fan belt is costing me a great weather window so I'm not the happiest camper at present.

That weather as noted by high wire is excellent. That's a great forecast.

And a favorite Mae West quote: When I'm good, I'm very good but when I'm bad, I'm better.

janice142 said:

The part I listen for (on the east coast -- the Gulf of Mexico is a whole 'nother ball of wax) is

Wave height
and
(most important of all)
time between waves

A short duration between the waves means rough seas.
What I look for is 10 seconds between wave heights.

I know from past listening, that once I have the ten second margin the weather will remain okay FOR ME for at least 36 hours.

Anything less than ten seconds and I do not venture off-shore.
Please note: Seaweed is a coastal cruiser and not designed for the type of weather you big guys can handle. I have to be careful.

Here, in the Gulf of Mexico I can discern no pattern for deteriorating weather -- but I've only been listening for 1.5 years. I do know this broken fan belt is costing me a great weather window so I'm not the happiest camper at present.

That weather as noted by high wire is excellent. That's a great forecast.

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We generally look for a period at least a couple of seconds more than the wave height or at least 8 seconds. Now doesn't mean we don't go out with less depending on the boat. But period is definitely a key factor. It's also not just safety but enjoyment. Our boats will handle a lot more than we can enjoy.

One other source I meant to mention earlier. Local knowledge. People who just came through, marinas and the best we've found is the towboat operators. They're the ones who can typically give you more information on the conditions at the inlets.

We ran a bunch up the coast and it was nice to hear swell direction before heading out.

Your DF 44 is probably stabilized if I were you my main concern in a strong thunderstorm would be damage to the Bimini and canvas etc. if you're in the ICW life is easy, on the outside or the Chesapeake , Great Lakes etc weather plays a much bigger role.

gwkiwi said:

We ran a bunch up the coast and it was nice to hear swell direction before heading out.

Your DF 44 is probably stabilized if I were you my main concern in a strong thunderstorm would be damage to the Bimini and canvas etc. if you're in the ICW life is easy, on the outside or the Chesapeake , Great Lakes etc weather plays a much bigger role.

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In addition I think you can add the Delaware Bay to the list of unprotected waters.
Bill

Billylll said:

In addition I think you can add the Delaware Bay to the list of unprotected waters.
Bill

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+1. One of the most uncomfortable passages I ever had was in a J110 sailboat heading south on DB in early May. It was near freezing with blowing rain and square waves. Utter misery. Although I think the stabilized DF44 would be a more comfortable ride, fortunately, our end point will be on the northern Chesapeake.

Great advice on this thread. Thanks again, all.

psneeld said:

I'm not even sure a 6 foot, 6 foot crest to crest is even possible....if it is...I've never seen anything close with all my time on/near the water...plenty of bad wave but none at that extreme.

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It's basically what you see on an strong out going tide at a narrow inlet when the wind waves and/or swells are opposing the tidal flow. Or what you can see at the mouth of a river that empties into the sea.

Greetings,
Ah, Mae West...."Come up and see me sometime when I've got nothing on but the radio...."

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,
Ah, Mae West...."Come up and see me sometime when I've got nothing on but the radio...."

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And . . . "Do you have a banana in your pocket, or are you just glad to see me?"

Capt.Bill11 said:

It's basically what you see on an strong out going tide at a narrow inlet when the wind waves and/or swells are opposing the tidal flow. Or what you can see at the mouth of a river that empties into the sea.

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Exactly!

Capt.Bill11 said:

It's basically what you see on an strong out going tide at a narrow inlet when the wind waves and/or swells are opposing the tidal flow. Or what you can see at the mouth of a river that empties into the sea.

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OK...I can accept steep waves in certain circumstances...especially like breakers, rips, wind against current.....however....

....a 6 foot wave with 6 feet between crests is like standing at the bottom of the trough and having to reach up to touch the top of the next wave which is only an arms length away.....and you can do the same to the preceding one.

I would like to see a picture of some of those.....

psneeld said:

I would like to see a picture of some of those.....

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Not sure if 6' with 6 sec period is possible. But I would think it would look something like this:

Capt.Bill11 said:

Not sure if 6' with 6 sec period is possible. But I would think it would look something like this:

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That's about as close as I have seen it....but as extreme as that is...it's really hard to believe a 6x6 wave in anything other than some testing device (Hollywood special effect).

And hoperfully the average trawler guy doesn't run that in his boat..

Another possibility but absolutely a freak would be something like I experience about 10 years ago.

I had my sportfish over on a 45 degree roll I think (actually my son was at the helm) when drifting through the Cape May, NJ rips for striped bass.

I think we had just topped a big rip and got hit by a freighter wake or very much larger set of waves at the exact moment...surprised the cra* out of us...those times are the one in a zillion that can get you...luckily that boat was always set up/maintained for the worst...and thankfully no one was hurt as we all knew the rips are a tricky place and handholds were always close by....and also no fish on at the moment...

Capt.Bill11 said:

Not sure if 6' with 6 sec period is possible. But I would think it would look something like this:

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He wasn't talking 6' with 6 sec. He was talking 6' with 6' between crests. Far different. 6' with 6 seconds we see regularly and that is close for that height but not unheard of.

BandB said:

He wasn't talking 6' with 6 sec. He was talking 6' with 6' between crests. Far different. 6' with 6 seconds we see regularly and that is close for that height but not unheard of.

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Yes you're right. I mis-wrote it. I'm just used to thinking in feet and period when it comes to waves.

As far as thunder storms goes, this is when a longer range open array radar really pays for itself, despite the opinion of some here that they are bought only because "they look cool". The internet/phone weather/radar tools are nice; I used to have a bunch of locations all up and down the east coast bookmarked in my Blackberry. But Freddy Furuno
gives a much better picture of how the weather relates to exactly where you are.

We are pleasure boaters, in that order. If it's going to be at all crappy out, we just as soon stay put another day, or two if necessary, and have done so many times. And not just for rough seas or high winds; if we have a beautiful area ahead we want to savor, then limited visibility due to rain or fog may keep us moored. On the other hand we've run the boat on instruments several times when it was foggy or heavy rain and the surroundings were not of particular interest.

As far as rough seas go, as discussed above, it depends. Of course it starts with the boat and it's capabilities, and the humans on board and their capabilities and tolerances. Have had some very pleasant cruising in long period 6 footers (on the beam, stabilized heavy boat), horrid cruising in steep, fast 2-3 footers with the wind roaring up or down the Pamlico, Chesapeake, Albemarle, even the LIS. Basically I don't like being out in much over 20 knot winds. Done it and more? Sure. Fun? Usually, no. We're in it for the fun.

In the protected canal and canal-like parts of the ICW, agree that weather is much less of an issue by far. But to the degree it may take the pleasure out of the trip due to poor visibility, why bother?

Newbies to radar should remember when coastal and ICW cruising...boat radar can't see everything....as objects create shadow areas...such as heavy rain may be blocking out or lessening the return of extreme rain just behind it. In open water shadowing can still happen but I agree that's where power and range is nice...and even better if NO internet or satellite data is available.

In the ditch, often objects on shore will negate seeing thunderstorms not all that far away if they are zooming along at 30+ knots and you are crawling at 6-8 kts.

It's one of the main reasons I up our hotspot data when cruising the ditch...having both widespread weather and cruising guide info at the touch of a few buttons enables me to make better decisions based on better info.

Some weather maps allow very detailed zooming in of passing thunderstorm and tracks..Wundermap I used twice now even during tornado watches to slow or speed up as necessary to avoid the strongest cells.

I sailed the mid ditch areas for some 30+ years and was only involved with two thunder storm dismasting's one on my boat. One was 100% skippers fault would not drop sail racing. The other on my boat 50% my fault would not drop all sail and 50% builder designer of boat with a poor head stay mast interface on a rotating mast. I was aware of one death a sailor not far from me when I lost my mast. Otherwise I was aware of all storms with enough warning to drop sail anchor, if enough water, or to ride out the short lived high intensity winds. Back then there were no radar apps on phones and few boats had radar. There were often weather station warnings of likely late afternoon TS. On a hot humid summer day the odds are good for TS. TS come with the territory Stay alert and be conservative. If there is lightening stay away from wire shrouds and big metal and there is little to fear. Rarely a low profile Motor boat gets hit and has a expensive electronics bill. The TS is not confined to the ditch so may not play in choice in or out.

The trouble with thunderstorms is the difficulty in predicting them. Always worth keep a close eye out.

Our current winter weather is much more predictable, Its crap. - I'm not going to leave the dock this week.
Adelaide Weather Forecast (Swell, Wind, Tide, Rain & Temperature)
This site graphs the local wind, wave height and wave period, making it easy to make a call. With wave height equalling wave period today (14 feet x 14 seconds), Nope - not a chance.

Also, if you've got a weather station on your VHF (as you transit the number will change so be aware of that) ... anyway you can hold down the ALT button on the VHF radio. That will enable "Alert" and when weather issues come up (those rapidly moving thunder-boomers for instance) your radio will automatically beep several times and then go to the NOAA Weather station for the broadcast.

Your VHF will stay on the Wx channel until you return it to 16 incidentally. It's a handy feature and even my ancient VHF radio has it.

That's one of the nice features of getting weather data from SIRIUS or GSM Cellular with Garmin plotters. Your screen will turn red in the weather alert area. If you want then you can switch the VHF to the weather channel and listen to the warnings. Since we stopped doing much cruising in the Mainship I shut the SIRIUS WX off and went with the GSM based pay per day weather. It works well in most of the Atlantic ICW. I'll have the same daily service available in my GS. I took the GSM based cellular weather antenna out of the system before the boat was sold. It works via the NMEA2000 backbone you can use the puck alone or a good 800/1900 cellular external antenna mounted nearby with an SMA male connector for extending the range. I understand this service will be going away by 2016. Depending on my cruising I'll keep it until then. You can also purchase an extended use plan short term if needed.
Bill

Billylll said:

That's one of the nice features of getting weather data from SIRIUS or GSM Cellular with Garmin plotters. Your screen will turn red in the weather alert area. If you want then you can switch the VHF to the weather channel and listen to the warnings. Since we stopped doing much cruising in the Mainship I shut the SIRIUS WX off and went with the GSM based pay per day weather. It works well in most of the Atlantic ICW. I'll have the same daily service available in my GS. I took the GSM based cellular weather antenna out of the system before the boat was sold. It works via the NMEA2000 backbone you can use the puck alone or a good 800/1900 cellular external antenna mounted nearby with an SMA male connector for extending the range. I understand this service will be going away by 2016. Depending on my cruising I'll keep it until then. You can also purchase an extended use plan short term if needed.
Bill

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Yep we have a GXM-52 that's distributes it to our two 741xs'.

I have the older GXM-51. It puts all but the SIRIUS audio on the NMEA2000 backbone. My Garmin cellular based weather uses the GDL-40 US. It will feed 741xs and 740s units via NMEA2K on my Gulfstar.
Bill

I believe one thing we have as a huge advantage today is the weather information available. Not just forecasts but actual weather in nearby areas. Now there still seem to be a lot of people ignoring it and especially sailboats heading out into bad conditions and requiring rescue.

When we go offshore we always assume too that it's going to be a level worse than any forecast and decide if we'd still feel ok about the trip.

AusCan said:

Our current winter weather is much more predictable,..
Adelaide Weather Forecast (Swell, Wind, Tide, Rain & Temperature)
This site graphs the local wind, wave height and wave period, making it easy to make a call. With wave height equalling wave period today (14 feet x 14 seconds), Nope - not a chance.

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Glad you are back ok. I often think how fortunate we are to have Seabreeze as a weather predictor, I almost always take their advice over other sources. Do others have something like it?

BandB said:

I believe one thing we have as a huge advantage today is the weather information available.

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This view may change on your trip to Alaska.

Northern Spy said:

This view may change on your trip to Alaska.

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If memory serves correctly...do you remember the early 90's when the US lost a weather satellite on the East Coast so they shifted the others and left the North Pacific and Northwest without eyes?

I was stationed on Kodiak, Island and we felt back in the stone age with mostly ship reports and the few Aleutian reports..the Russians hadn't warmed up too much at that point.

Yep....I feel pretty spoiled here in the East with almost 3000 miles of weather gathering data from every elementary school to yachtclub to TV station pumping data into the system 24/7.

While weather reports aren't perfect...if you can read a bit more into them for your local versus "regional" weather...it sure helps a lot. Weather by zip code is like a magician's trick....good for entertainment but the reality is weather usually isn't forecast town by town...look at the size of the areas in a marine forecast to get an idea of the best they can really do.