Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

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Before I retired I did literally thousands of Covid tests. At that time it took 24 hours for the tests to be resulted. Patients often asked "So if I am negative I am good to go?"
I had to tell them that "NO, all a negative test means is that at the exact snapshot in time you had the test done you were negative" The minute you left my office everything could have changed.

pete
 
Greetings,
Study hard! Pass those tests!


iu
 
And in Australia and a lot of the world we are apparently **** out of luck if wanting to get into hospital in any sort of reasonable time frame
Seems to have only happened over the last couple of years
I wonder what happened?

Dirt people in denial?

We still mask up if going ashore
Time our trips for when most are still at home
Treat every unknown like a plague carrier
Haven't had a sniffle in 6 years and plan on keeping it that way
 
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BruceK said:
Not confident about "mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic". We saw 2 paramedic crews take their ambulance trolleys equipped with intubation equipment into the ship, each emerging about an hour later with patient. It takes paramedics 1/2-1 hour to reintubate for transport to Hospital.
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I have no idea what may or may not have happened just sharing some article on the subject. Perhaps there is more detailed information somewhere else that we all may find.
With that said and now open for conjecture there could have been others taken off the ship at previous points, or folks may have require intubation for any number of reasons other than covid. Given what we have seen here with covid if there are 800 people showing symptoms of covid over 5 days in an older trending population you would have many more intubations, 10-20X that level.
 
S your prior post makes several unjustified assumptions.
Incidence of need for intubation depends upon a number of factors beyond just age. Age is just one variable in a number of risk factors. As you know these include co morbidities such as immune status, vaccination history, inter current cardiac or pulmonary disease, BMI, socioeconomic status etc.
I would suggest to you a population that’s sufficiently healthy to undertake a cruise may not have the same degree of co morbidities even if matched for age. I would also suggest a ambulatory population of any age able to walk on to a ship would have a very low frequency for the need for intubation in any reasonable time frame of weeks or even months.
 
Hippocampus said:
S your prior post makes several unjustified assumptions.
Incidence of need for intubation depends upon a number of factors beyond just age. Age is just one variable in a number of risk factors. As you know these include co morbidities such as immune status, vaccination history, inter current cardiac or pulmonary disease, BMI, socioeconomic status etc.
I would suggest to you a population that’s sufficiently healthy to undertake a cruise may not have the same degree of co morbidities even if matched for age. I would also suggest a ambulatory population of any age able to walk on to a ship would have a very low frequency for the need for intubation in any reasonable time frame of weeks or even months.
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I am not sure if this is a response to my post or what exactly it says.
In any larger population there are numerous reasons for medical procedures.
Based on what I understand currently in Australia there are no requirements for isolation for a positive covid test and there minimal covid tests being performed. In spite of that data there is a rise in weekly positive tests in the population whether symptomatic or not.
 
In addition to Hippo's points, remember that all of these folks tested negatively before the cruise. I would guess that the time from infection to intubation is greater than the 7 days of a cruise.
 
Benthic2 said:
In addition to Hippo's points, remember that all of these folks tested negatively before the cruise. I would guess that the time from infection to intubation is greater than the 7 days of a cruise.
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My hope was that some folks would be able to provide some real facts about this cruise as I was only able to find the ones in the article linked above.
Since this did make the news feeds one would like to think that there was enough interest that one of us here on this site would find out more details eventually.
Back to unsupported drama - if folks on the cruise did take tests 2 days prior to departure then there would be plenty of time to require intervention for folks who became very ill.
I think there are much better questions out there:
- were most all of the folks on the cruise symptom free?
- were the folks intubated due to covid?
- how many folks were intubated in total and were other folks removed at any stopovers?
- was Australia's positive numbers for that week really 56,000+?
- how many folks did get tested to arrive at that weekly 56,000+ number?
- are most folks testing positive now symptom free in this area?
 
smitty477 said:
My hope was that some folks would be able to provide some real facts about this cruise as I was only able to find the ones in the article linked above.
Since this did make the news feeds one would like to think that there was enough interest that one of us here on this site would find out more details eventually.
Back to unsupported drama - if folks on the cruise did take tests 2 days prior to departure then there would be plenty of time to require intervention for folks who became very ill.
I think there are much better questions out there:
- were most all of the folks on the cruise symptom free?
- were the folks intubated due to covid?
- how many folks were intubated in total and were other folks removed at any stopovers?
- was Australia's positive numbers for that week really 56,000+?
- how many folks did get tested to arrive at that weekly 56,000+ number?
- are most folks testing positive now symptom free in this area?
Click to expand...
I was there, I have Covid, and zero interest in responding to your strange interrogatories.
 
Cunard`s (Carnival)Queen Elizabeth is headed for Perth(Fremantle) Western Australia, refused entry to Bali, Indonesia,15% of its 2000 pax have Covid. Plus more infected crew.
Poor effort really. Majestic Princess had 25% pax infected arriving Sydney. Maybe the "4th wave" is waning.
 
Maybe there was more than 15% positive maybe there was less than 15% positive ...t has been very difficult to find any data that is reasonably supported.
Here is one article:
https://headtopics.com/au/cruise-tu...andons-bali-leg-after-covid-outbreak-32154118

A couple of quotes from that article...
"A spokeswoman for Cunard, owner of the ship, confirmed there was “an elevated level of transmission” on board, but declined to provide case numbers."

"The positive cases, who were all either mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, according to Carnival cruises, were able to disembark via a separate door and advised not to use public transport."
 
advised not to use public transport."

How many will comply?

Issue with Covid, influenza, RSV or any now endemic infection spread by aerosol/droplets is the Ro. All these infections will be around for the indefinite future. Regardless of what China thinks we will have a hopefully low level of infected people in the future. To keep it low the Ro needs to be low. That depends upon the actions and behavior of those commercial entities that host gatherings of people. Cruise ships, restaurants, concerts, offices, hospitals and to some extent public buildings. Sterilization of the air and adequate turnover are known effective measures. Either in response to public outcry, lost bookings or legislative mandate the cruise ship industry can either lower the Ro or continue to be a vector of spread of respiratory illnesses of which Covid is only one.
Unless you’re diligently using k95 /n95 masks you’re not decreasing your risk by much. If using the standard throw aways you see just about every where you do decrease others risk. But only if worn correctly. Unfortunately ever more so people are egocentric so are unlikely to mask nor avoid public transport. Neither does the general population take to heart the impact of morbidity and seem to only be concerned about mortality.
Folks also seem ignorant of the original reason for customs and immigration services. Practique was granted only after the ship was believed to be not a risk for spreading infection.
I’m uncertain as to current behavior before disembarkment either at the end of the cruise or intermediate stops. Ideally everyone leaving the boat should be tested. Those testing positive left on the boat with the boat flying a Q flag. (Yes that Q is for quarantine). That’s the way it was for the 1918-9 flu. My grandfather was forced to stay on his ship in the Brooklyn navy yard within sight of his house for 2 months after his discharge. He never got sick but no one was allowed to leave his ship until there were no cases of flu on the entire ship. Likelihood of similar action now is nil. He’d tell me of the anguish of seeing his new bride waving to him and being unable to touch her or even talk with. Now we get “well it’s unlikely to kill me so I won’t do anything to decrease spread”. Same with flu vaccines, boosters or any public health measure. Interestingly our behavior with RSV is better. Premies are vaccinated. RSV kids don’t go to daycare or school. Parents are alert and responsive. So suspect the current RSV outbreak will be curtailed. Fortunately the anti vaccine craziness we’ve seen with Covid, polio and measles won’t happen again.
 
“There are active cases in cabins throughout the ship as well, and they [aren’t telling] anyone. They say it is a privacy issue and they can’t share with anyone, but medical teams in protective gear are seen going to rooms.”
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I searched locally as the news is not reporting (or I miss it) that local cruise ships are having similar issues as ones down under. I found some ships did not enter Canada and Pax left in San Francisco as an example.
It seems North America is under reporting, not reporting.
 
There are requirements for at least NSW state for cruise ships to test all pax before docking when there is a Covid outbreak. So when Majestic Princess docked in Sydney 12 November it had 800 0f 3200 pax positive making it "Tier 3".
The "Tier" classification stems from the Ruby Princess disaster early in the Covid pandemic which led to cruising being banned until April this year.


Grand Princess docks in Newcastle NSW on 29 November and has enough cases to be Tier 2 already. If memory serves, it was stuck in Japan early in the pandemic with many cases with authorities unsure as to the safe course of action.

Princess seems well represented in these difficulties, not sure why.


Here is information on "Tier" classification. Note it only applies to ships docking in NSW. https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/travel/cruising-rules
 
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G9 please give data as to vaccination rates. Please post how many have received the two boosters. Please then compare morbidity and mortality rates for those who have completed the complete program to whose who have not.
You are correct vaccination does work. The science is settled. Fully vaccinated people are less like to get sick enough as to require hospitalization or die.
Yes as the virus has evolved it has become more resistant to the vaccines people have received the past but the sarcasm of your posts is refuted by science.
 
Hippocampus said:
G9 please give data as to vaccination rates. Please post how many have received the two boosters. Please then compare morbidity and mortality rates for those who have completed the complete program to whose who have not.
You are correct vaccination does work. The science is settled. Fully vaccinated people are less like to get sick enough as to require hospitalization or die.
Yes as the virus has evolved it has become more resistant to the vaccines people have received the past but the sarcasm of your posts is refuted by science.
Click to expand...


Many of your questions are answered here...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/australia-covid-cases.html
 
ustralia 88% 85% 77%

253 64,248,569

77% fully vaccinated (also from NYT).
 
What does "Fully Vaccinated" mean ? The original 2 shots ? a booster ? a bivalent ( omicron specific ) booster ?

The vaccination cards the CDC printed don't have enough lines on them!
 
We have been working from home since 1Q2020 but people have slowly been returning to the campus to work in an open office plan. Not a surprise that those people returning to work on the campus are frequently out sick with a variety of illnesses including The Virus. Everyone had to be vaccinate or they would be fired. This is at a much higher rate of people calling in sick than I have ever seen. Part of it is the open office environment but I know people working at a different company that has cubes and they have high levels of people calling in sick too.

We are being forced back to the campus so it will just get worse next year.
 
Benthic2 said:
What does "Fully Vaccinated" mean ? The original 2 shots ? a booster ? a bivalent ( omicron specific ) booster ?

The vaccination cards the CDC printed don't have enough lines on them!
Click to expand...

I have had all five of the Moderna inoculations. They flip the card over and print the info on a sticker. Plenty of room.:socool:
 
dannc said:
We have been working from home since 1Q2020 but people have slowly been returning to the campus to work in an open office plan. Not a surprise that those people returning to work on the campus are frequently out sick with a variety of illnesses including The Virus. Everyone had to be vaccinate or they would be fired. This is at a much higher rate of people calling in sick than I have ever seen. Part of it is the open office environment but I know people working at a different company that has cubes and they have high levels of people calling in sick too.

We are being forced back to the campus so it will just get worse next year.
Click to expand...


So many folks we know never stayed home at all.
 
Hawaii had it right. They declared fishing on your boat a critical activity, but charter boats were banned. So, we had the marina, launch ramp and ocean to ourselves! Oh, they also declared surfing a critical activity, you couldn't lay on the beach, but you could carry your board over it to surf. No logic, we just went with the flow LOL
 
Cold Duck said:
Hawaii had it right. They declared fishing on your boat a critical activity, but charter boats were banned. So, we had the marina, launch ramp and ocean to ourselves! Oh, they also declared surfing a critical activity, you couldn't lay on the beach, but you could carry your board over it to surf. No logic, we just went with the flow LOL
Click to expand...


Sounds logical enough to me. Let people do the things they can do alone or with their immediate family, but not the ones they'll be doing while close to strangers.
 
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