Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

What’s interesting is whether by retrofit or in new construction the air handlers systems incorporate UV, MERS 13(and up) filtering and the other techniques to produce sterile air. The UV technology has been around for decades. I’ve seen them in infectious disease patient isolation rooms going back to the 80s. That technology has improved as has filtering. Beyond Covid risk the risk of flu or any respiratory virus would decrease dramatically. Covid (like flu) spreads primarily by aerosol or droplet. You could sterilize every surface on a ship and once one infected individual starts to shed aerosol/infected droplets all that work is for naught.
It’s not cleaning routines that the main culprit in the higher risk of cruise ships. Its the air shared by large numbers of people in a relatively closed environment. This is true for crew and passengers.

Hippocampus said:

What’s interesting is whether by retrofit or in new construction the air handlers systems incorporate UV, MERS 13(and up) filtering and the other techniques to produce sterile air. The UV technology has been around for decades. I’ve seen them in infectious disease patient isolation rooms going back to the 80s. That technology has improved as has filtering. Beyond Covid risk the risk of flu or any respiratory virus would decrease dramatically. Covid (like flu) spreads primarily by aerosol or droplet. You could sterilize every surface on a ship and once one infected individual starts to shed aerosol/infected droplets all that work is for naught.
It’s not cleaning routines that the main culprit in the higher risk of cruise ships. Its the air shared by large numbers of people in a relatively closed environment. This is true for crew and passengers.

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I was thinking the same, better air filtration, more air flow, etc. would make a significant difference.

Greetings,
Sadly, IF people still book cruises in spite of the danger of illness the cruise industry will not change much. Yes, clean air technology has been around for decades BUT money spent by the owners to improve the shipboard environment either in a new build or retrofitting will simply cut into their profits.
As per normal...Follow the $$$.
The cruise industry will simply write off these medical catastrophes as just another business expense.

End of day one of the major pleasures of owning your own boat and not being on a cruise ship nor charter is it’s yours alone. Go where you want. Go when you want. Go with only the people you want to be with. Have the environment you want to be in.
Cruise ships are exactly the opposite. While living in the Caribbean islands it was striking how different the experience was for cruise ship and charter boats. Even the charter boats where confined to certain areas. As stated elsewhere the locals viewed the populations differently so interactions were different.
I don’t know if things are different elsewhere but with violent antisocial egocentric behavior seen on airplanes and public transport think a increasing segment of the population who has the time and money to go on cruise ships may decrease. They rather enjoy peace, quiet, and nature’s beauties than gorging on food and drink, gambling, loud music or thrills and chills in a totally artificial environment.
I thought to do an Alaska cruise with the kids and grandkids. Surprisingly the kids had zero interest. Were more receptive of hiring a three or four cabin trawler and adding on helicopter tours and the like.

I started this thread over two years ago, I am truely excited that it is still alive. (The thread that is, not the industry)

The beginning sentence of the original thread was "Can the cruise industry survive, Of course it can".

For a while I had serious doubts about the viability of the industry (and hopes). Now, last week I read that one of the industry leaders had launched two new cruise ships. Massive, gargantuan floating obscenities. Stacked 20 or more stories high! Obscene for all the reasons we have already discussed.

I guess they plan on survival although several popular cruise destinations have now prohibited cruise ships from their ports. The response of at least one cruise line was to buy a tropical island and turn it into an isolated Disneyland. "How fun is that?" I can't imagine a worse vacation than being crammed into a floating asylum, cruising to an island converted to a faux Disneyland and spending a day or more with the same idiots you were with on the boat! (The last time I used the word "IDIOTS" on this forum the moderators gave me a warning)

Anyway, enough of a rant for today.

pete

Hipp. I do not have the numbers, only a gut feeling that the masses of people that take cruise ships would never own and run a pleasure craft. We have the best of both worlds and can choose to go on a cruise ship, most people do not have that choice.

(The last time I used the word "IDIOTS" on this forum the moderators gave me a warning)

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Been nice knowing you Pete.

Of course the cruise industry will survive. It is a super bug that took many lives and very contagious, well published.

I still wonder about the numerous times I was in a crowd of people some of which had the sniffles, only to become sick with same symptoms of the common cold or flu thereafter. Any stats on that?

As others have said, we know it is airborne, the 6 foot rule, so high tech air circulation systems should contain most of it. It can be managed.

Disney is the American Mecca. Must admit I made certain that each kid got their own pilgrimage to Disney. Hate to admit it I enjoyed those vacations as well. But like the decreasing interest in owning a cruising sail or power boat among the young still think the same applies to cruise ships. From my limited understanding of the mindset of the 20-40y.o. crowd this has effected the demographics of several of the leasure industries. Skiing, golf, hunting and others require time and preparation. So even not considering the money involved baby boomers maybe the last cohort willing to commit the time to such pastimes in great numbers. One daughter thought nothing of spending a long weekend in London to have her husband watch the Yankees play but would be hard pressed to get on a cruise ship for a week. They’d rather decide in the morning to go cross country skiing than blow a weekend and the money involved to go downhill. Both sets rather be in a more natural environment. One is a borne again hard core libertarian the other a progressive so it’s not politics. Rather they want “real” experiences with their kids doing stuff.
There’s economies of scale hence the cruise ships get larger. There’s more opportunities for income with inclusive packages including tours and the like. But the younger generations have a increasingly abhorrence of being treated as a kernel in a pile of corn. More dislike of a crowd mentality. More dislike of glitter and more yearning of centering activities. Hence think the cruise ships conglomerates are thinking much like big oil. Make money while the sun shines. We will age out from our pastimes. Perhaps the nature and riverboat cruises will remain popular. But suspect the pool of folks who want to go on cruise ships will decrease. Not only due to health risks.

With or w/o Covid, I never understood the draw to a cruise vacation. I know some people love them and swear by them, but to me it's the worst possible vacation I can imagine. Full disclosure, I did do a very small boat Alaska cruise last summer. About 80 guests and 20 crew. And it was the first and last time my wife and I got covid, despite the protocols in place.

Hippocampus, I agree with everything you say. I wonder how long it takes to amoritize a huge purchase like a mega cruise ship?

The demographics of the world are changing. In my small northern Wisconsin town deer hunting gun season was like a national holiday in my youth. Schools and businesses closed for the week. the streets, bars, businesses and even churches were a "sea of blaze orange" or red and black wool for the oldtimers. Now, I recently read there are not enough hunters to control the deer herd.

I like your analogy of the younger generations disliking being a 'kernel in a pile of corn". I also like your thinking about being able to go out your own back yard and cross country skiing as opposed to an expensive, weekend long downhill skiing experience.

The world is indeed changing, can the cruise industry survive? They must know something I don't know. I would say the industry is doomed. Why then are they investing literally billions in new equipment and land? Beats me.

I'm just glad my encounters with the cruise industry are limited. I never see the boats, don't participate in their use and only in my mind do I generate hateful thoughts about what they are doing to the planet.

pete

They used to say that cruises were for "newlyweds and nearly-deads" Think about all the following things that still draw customers:

Stand up comedy
Live music
Fancy restaurants
Educational lectures
Nightclubs
suntanning
foreign travel
beaching/watersports
snorkeling and diving
going to the movies

Where else can you do all of those in a week but on a cruise ? And there is absolutely zero logistical planning. It is like ordering a seafood platter. You only get a few shrimp, but you also get a few scallops, a few clams and some fish. Can you fully experience Jamaican culture in a 12 hour layover ? Of course not....but some people are happy getting a little bit, of a lot of things. With one phone call you can get a vacation where you have a mind numbing array of options from quietly reading a book in the sun, to running yourself ragged doing everything available......all while your kids are having a blast under supervision of the child care staff and eating incredible food.

I know its not for everyone, but neither is golf, and no one is worried about golf courses closing.....or ski resorts....or any other specialized destination.

Benthic2 said:

They used to say that cruises were for "newlyweds and nearly-deads" Think about all the following things that still draw customers:

Stand up comedy
Live music
Fancy restaurants
Educational lectures
Nightclubs
suntanning
foreign travel
beaching/watersports
snorkeling and diving
going to the movies

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One can get the same in Las Vegas, Miami, and a host of other cities around the world... with the benefit of not being confined in a floating Petri dish. Not to be harsh, but those cruise ships would make fine fishing reefs.

Benthic2 said:

They used to say that cruises were for "newlyweds and nearly-deads" Think about all the following things that still draw customers:

Stand up comedy
Live music
Fancy restaurants
Educational lectures
Nightclubs
suntanning
foreign travel
beaching/watersports
snorkeling and diving
going to the movies

Where else can you do all of those in a week but on a cruise ? And there is absolutely zero logistical planning. It is like ordering a seafood platter. You only get a few shrimp, but you also get a few scallops, a few clams and some fish. Can you fully experience Jamaican culture in a 12 hour layover ? Of course not....but some people are happy getting a little bit, of a lot of things. With one phone call you can get a vacation where you have a mind numbing array of options from quietly reading a book in the sun, to running yourself ragged doing everything available......all while your kids are having a blast under supervision of the child care staff and eating incredible food.

I know its not for everyone, but neither is golf, and no one is worried about golf courses closing.....or ski resorts....or any other specialized destination.

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+1

I agree.
Pre-Covid, we generally cruised once every couple of years. The main rationale was to sample places we'd never been to before in order to decide whether the location was worth going back to for an extended vacation (or even for living for a portion of the year). The added bonus was everything Benthic2 mentioned above. Now, post-Covid, we find ourselves desiring a cruise, but are not yet willing to jump back into the petri dish. We are hoping it will become less risky within a few years. In the meantime, we will enjoy the relative safety of our own boat. But even that is not 100% safe. I and two of our guests came down with Covid shortly after arriving in Malta this year. Fortunately, not serious -- but it was an unpleasant ~2-3 weeks.

One of our most memorable cruises was actually a river cruise on the Nile. It was back in 1995 on the MS Champollion, operated by Le Meridian Hotels. It was nice to be able to visit the various antiquities and archaeological sites and be greeted with refreshing wet towels, air conditioning and cocktails upon return

You can do all of those for a few hours and not dedicated a week to confinement with strangers with risk of infectious illness. The current concern is RSV around here. There’s always be something. Again the mode of travel seems to be reverting to nuclear family or a small group of 2-4 families. Due to obligations fewer are interested in being away in confined settings for long periods.
Both cruise ships and resorts function independently and virtually unchanged regardless of where they are. Have been to several destination weddings. Doesn’t matter if they are in PR, Cozumel or Cabo the setting is exactly same and unchanged from Biscayne Bay. Fully American in all regards. We were reprimanded for renting a car leaving the resort and going exploring when in PR. Both cruise ships and resorts offer a menu of activities. If there’s nothing on the menu that interests you you’re plumb out of luck. Some want that program and the absence of freedom. Others not so much. Best meals I’ve had have been in small working class neighborhoods where the locals eat. Funniest shows in small venues. Haven’t been to the movies for years and neither have my kids. See them watching different movies simultaneously on their tablets. Even on the boat one may be on the tv the other on a pad. Given musical tastes are so personal it’s unlikely a cruise ship will offer anything other than that which has mass appeal. There’s so many choices now readily available it’s increasing people wanting to choose from that much wider menu rather a limited list be it in a cruise ship or even a movie house. . Live music just like live comedy is best done with a group of friends. Cruise ships may have some appeal to boomers and above but continue to believe less and less to other demographics.
Recently one of my best friends went to Italy. His two brothers, his parents and all the offspring rented a house in Tuscany. They then dispersed to do other travels. My neighbor, his siblings and families went off on a river cruise through Europe. Some met the trip and left the trip at various times. Doing that for a cruise ship takes much more organization.

Hippocampus said:

What’s interesting is whether by retrofit or in new construction the air handlers systems incorporate UV, MERS 13(and up) filtering and the other techniques to produce sterile air. The UV technology has been around for decades. I’ve seen them in infectious disease patient isolation rooms going back to the 80s. That technology has improved as has filtering. Beyond Covid risk the risk of flu or any respiratory virus would decrease dramatically. Covid (like flu) spreads primarily by aerosol or droplet. You could sterilize every surface on a ship and once one infected individual starts to shed aerosol/infected droplets all that work is for naught.
It’s not cleaning routines that the main culprit in the higher risk of cruise ships. Its the air shared by large numbers of people in a relatively closed environment. This is true for crew and passengers.

Click to expand...

The problem isn’t lack of technology, but lack of desire or need by cruise lines to implement safer conditions. They aren’t required to provide high-tech air handling and it would cost more money, so they don’t do it. As long as they fill ships with paying customers on existing ships, why would they spend that money to improve safety?

The long, narrow passageways and minimal fire exits wouldn’t meet building code in any civilized city, yet it is the norm on these ships. Same idea.

guy with a boat said:

The problem isn’t lack of technology, but lack of desire or need by cruise lines to implement safer conditions. They aren’t required to provide high-tech air handling and it would cost more money, so they don’t do it. As long as they fill ships with paying customers on existing ships, why would they spend that money to improve safety?

The long, narrow passageways and minimal fire exits wouldn’t meet building code in any civilized city, yet it is the norm on these ships. Same idea.

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I whole heartedly agree with the first part of your statement. I think the market will guide cruise ships in that regard. If one company used its covid policies as a selling point and it attracted customers then others would follow, however I suspect they are hoping the covid conscious consumer will do their due dilligence, and I am sure they are educating their booking agents in this regard. It is an interesting marketing dilemma, however. I am not sure I would eat at:

"Bob's Wings...You won't catch Salmonella or your meal is free!"

For the time being I think cruise lines are catering mainly to the people that are not concerned about Covid. I'm not being political or disparaging any viewpoint, just pointing out that the populace had a wide range of concern for Covid, and I think the ships are hoping to make a living catering to one end of that spectrum.

As for fire safety codes, there is a huge amount of attention paid to fire safety. You say that ships wouldn't meet building codes, but remember those codes are not for all metal structures with flame resistant materials, hourly fire inspections, a robust sprinkler system and a dozen trained firefighters, rescue personal and a medical staff within 800 feet. Before the pandemic 30 million people cruised per year and I honestly can't remember the last fatal fire on a ship. There are lots of reasons not to take a cruise, but concern for fire safety should not be one of them.

I know cruising isn't for everyone, but I have talked to more first time cruisers than you can imagine and for every "I'll never do that again", there were 100 "I had so much fun" responses.

Coincidentally, at a family gathering today we were talking about resurrecting a plan we had pre-COVID to all go on a cruise together.

If it happens, I'll go. I caught a norovirus on a cruise ship once. I've also had COVID. I'm very aware that it can happen again. I won't let that stop me.

During the pandemic, we took all the recommended precautions, and got all the recommended vaccinations. I'm not a denier, but I'm not going to live the rest of my life in fear and seclusion, either. I guess I'm in the demographic the cruise lines want. Apparently, so is everyone else in my extended family.

Stand up comedy
Live music
Fancy restaurants
Educational lectures
Nightclubs
suntanning
foreign travel
beaching/watersports
snorkeling and diving
going to the movies

Where else can you do all of those in a week but on a cruise ?

Click to expand...

Been on two cruises, one to Alaska and one Caribbean. Both had the same issue, not enough seats. Missed venues I wanted to attend. Then there was the dress up for dinner, I did, took the monkey suit and even though my ticket included same, no seats left. I made such a fuss, a table for two appeared but the moment was lost. Wife got food poisoning on each, I was OK as scotch kills that stuff. In any event I went to see a vast area in a short time greater than 8 knots.
Conclusion, cruises are not for me.

Insequent said:

So despite the down-time from running cruises the ships owners would appear to have learnt nothing and done nothing to remedy their unacceptable reputation as floating virus incubators. They should cover the costs of any passengers requiring mandatory quarantine after disembarking IMO.

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We were given a document to sign saying we would isolate in compliance with law. No attempt made to collect it. Disembarkation was chaotic, we didn`t even go through Immigration or Customs. I still have our completed Arrival forms.
But, in Australia, there is no obligation on the Covid infected to isolate. It`s insane, but you can go anywhere, travel on public transport not masked, go to work(except hospitals and the like), there are just no restrictions. I blame my State Govt for that, they persuaded the rest of Australia to dump all restrictions. Madness imo, but I could go to the pharmacy to get my anti virals( $1100 full price but $41.50 to all Australians on Govt PBS scheme),well masked and carefully avoiding getting near anyone.

So one has to wonder how many infected people boarded the ship. I'm not buying this was the fault of one person. So you then ask yourself, how people bought tickets, came down with covid (or may have suspected that they were contagious), and chose to go anyway (what's the policy if you have to cancel a couple of days before). While it might be easy to blame the crew (have to work), I think it may say a lot about a very very small percentage of the passengers.

This reminds me of something my concealed carry instructor said, "The most important part of self defense is not going places you wouldn't go if you couldn't conceal carry". Very large gathering at indoor venues probably isn't safe yet.

Ted

O C Diver said:

So one has to wonder how many infected people boarded the ship. I'm not buying this was the fault of one person. So you then ask yourself, how people bought tickets, came down with covid (or may have suspected that they were contagious), and chose to go anyway (what's the policy if you have to cancel a couple of days before). While it might be easy to blame the crew (have to work), I think it may say a lot about a very very small percentage of the passengers.
Ted

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To board Majestic Covid Princess, you had to take a RAT and photograph and submit the negative test result,to show you and mobile phone displaying time and date. Test had to be <24hrs before boarding. An alternative Laboratory PCR test had to be <3days old. RAT is of course open to abuse. We detected "coughing" on day 1. We heard of someone with a terrible headache who believed it was Covid, and had no intention of reporting it to avoid being "confined to cabin".
Only safe course is not to go. I suggested that to boarding pax walking on, right beside infected pax incl us, just off, in the taxi pick up/drop area. Unsurprisingly they ignored my suggestion. They`ll find out the hard way.

Five thousand guests and crew test negative and board the boat. The next day fifty test positive as the virus emerges. That's not an easy problem to solve without draconian measures.

Benthic2 said:

As for fire safety codes, there is a huge amount of attention paid to fire safety. You say that ships wouldn't meet building codes, but remember those codes are not for all metal structures with flame resistant materials, hourly fire inspections, a robust sprinkler system and a dozen trained firefighters, rescue personal and a medical staff within 800 feet. Before the pandemic 30 million people cruised per year and I honestly can't remember the last fatal fire on a ship. There are lots of reasons not to take a cruise, but concern for fire safety should not be one of them.

I know cruising isn't for everyone, but I have talked to more first time cruisers than you can imagine and for every "I'll never do that again", there were 100 "I had so much fun" responses.

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You make some good points, and your description of safety measures is somewhat reassuring. I agree that fire problems on cruise ships has been very rare and I hope that continues in the future.

My observation was specifically about narrow passageways and minimal exits. A quick exit from the cabins for large numbers of people would be extremely difficult. We did an Alaska cruise (pre covid, on Holland America) and it was one of the first things I noticed. Then the last night on the ship, they had everyone leave their luggage outside the cabin doors so the crew could have it ready to offload in the morning. The result was that the already narrow passageways were further restricted and mass emergency exiting would have been literally impossible. It was frightening to me and one of a few reasons that we likely won’t do another cruise on a full-size ship.

Cruises work for many and I see the appeal. It can be a very cost effective way to see some great places and be entertained in many ways. It can be excellent for multiple generations traveling together. The food can be very good and the options for dining, entertainment and experiences are almost unlimited. But like many things, its not for everyone.

I received an SMS from what purports to be a Medical Practitioner using a 3 letter acronym and no sender number, claiming an association with State Medical Covid program and Princess, telling me to expect a Telehealth call before 10pm(Covid patients tire and retire early) and to have my Medicare card handy.
A major medical insurer here just got hacked by Russian based hacker/blackmailers demanding a 10M ransom and is now posting embarrassing personal medical info on the dark web. I`m sceptical,and Medicare numbers are an accepted identifier.

A little cynical about Princess too. Maybe they sold my info to some medico to make $ out of a phone consultation, at after hours/weekend rates too.
Having already consulted my GP by phone, I`ll pass.

You are all scaredy cats. Tomorrow I'm leaving on a western Mexico cruise, third time since 2020. Don't expect to leave the boat since I've done the cruise six, seven, or is it eight times. The destination is the ship. Cooks provide food, stewards make the beds and clean toilets, and all that other good stuff.

markpierce said:

You are all scaredy cats. Tomorrow I'm leaving on a western Mexico cruise, third time since 2020. Don't expect to leave the boat since I've done the cruise six, seven, or is it eight times. The destination is the ship. Cooks provide food, stewards make the beds and clean toilets, and all that other good stuff.

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May it goes well. Imho the danger is on the ship, not the shore.

Had it already? Then you know what to expect. Age bracket? Older implies vulnerability to serious illness. We watched 2 intubated patients taken off.

Even you mask, take every care, shots up to date, you can,like us, get sick.

Still don’t think the only disincentive to boarding a cruise ship is infectious disease. Agree with the sentiment it’s the voyage not the destination. When I was working I’d occasionally sail my boat east for a day. When west for a day. Enjoyed working the boat on my own out in the sea. Cruise ships are so large and such a contained environment there’s little or no awareness you’re at sea. And such an orchestrated interaction with the destinations you might as well sat at home and viewed it on VR. One may marvel at the engineering and mastery of crowd psychology involved or reject that as intrusive. Some may reject the profound negative impacts the industry has on the local populations that are visited or those environments. But I don’t think infectious disease with result in the demise of the industry but rather demographic shifts in how people wish to spend their vacation time.
Had a interesting conversation with Foxy at the time they were putting in the new cruise ship docks in the BVIs. What I abstracted was surprisingly that industry results in few jobs for the local population except for cab and van drivers. Although the upper echelon of the island may get money the general population gets only crumbs. Restaurants/bars see very little increase as that population returns to the ship to eat or drink. Tours to various attractions are prearranged with the ship long before arrival. Often done with ship personnel and/or with a selected few vendors shutting out the independents. Employment of locals is surprisingly low and given the unbalanced relationship of a large international company against the single local person supplying labor the laborer is in a unenviable position.
Resorts do employ locals labor. Some at all levels including management. Cruisers are even better as they bring dollars into the country and support all aspects of the society. Not just boat repair, maintenance and dockage but local supermarkets, bars, restaurants, hardware stores, laundries, fuel/propane, car rentals or locally operated tours. A cruise ship is self contained in all aspects for all activities of daily living. A resort is self contained but only by using local labor. A cruiser isn’t but rather has to integrate into that local environment to meet their needs.

BruceK said:

May it goes well. Imho the danger is on the ship, not the shore.

Had it already? Then you know what to expect. Age bracket? Older implies vulnerability to serious illness. We watched 2 intubated patients taken off.

Even you mask, take every care, shots up to date, you can,like us, get sick.

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/13/aust...rincess-cruise-passengers-intl-hnk/index.html


"After mass testing 3,300 passengers, around 800 tested positive for Covid-19, as did a small number of crew, Fitzgerald said.

“All positive cases were mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and those guests isolated in their staterooms and then separated from non-impacted guests,” parent company Princess Cruises representative Briana Latter told CNN."

"Danger, Will Robinson..."

If we get into name calling, seriousness of Covid, or necessity of prevention measures, we will quickly devolve into politics and get shut down. Let's give the moderators a break and police ourselves.

Just don't go there.

smitty477 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/13/aust...rincess-cruise-passengers-intl-hnk/index.html


"After mass testing 3,300 passengers, around 800 tested positive for Covid-19, as did a small number of crew, Fitzgerald said.

“All positive cases were mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and those guests isolated in their staterooms and then separated from non-impacted guests,” parent company Princess Cruises representative Briana Latter told CNN."

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Not confident about "mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic". We saw 2 paramedic crews take their ambulance trolleys equipped with intubation equipment into the ship, each emerging about an hour later with patient. It takes paramedics 1/2-1 hour to reintubate for transport to Hospital.