Buy Now???

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FIRE

Veteran Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2018
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Location
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Vessel Name
Sea Change
Am I insane to be considering the purchase of a substantial boat in the economy we are in right now? Especially considering every pundit and bank president alike seems to be indicating a global recession. This past week marks the first time many of the worlds central banks (10 of them including the Fed) all raised interest rates simultaneously to quell inflation. The world bank noted these hikes would have a "disastrous effect on the global economy". Anxiety anyone?

What I do know is that high quality well maintained boats are in very short supply and people seem willing to pay top dollar to get them. Will that mentality persist as the markets get more shaky? I am looking for a very specific boat and when they come up they are typically sold in short order for near asking price. So, the question I have is whether anything changes if the markets suffer as so many suggest (not the cost of money as I am a cash purchaser). Will those higher end boats come down substantially over the next 6 months?

Will I buy now and then cry in my Wheaties (6 months from now) because I should have waited just a little longer??? Does anyone know a boat buyers therapist?
 
If ever there was a question that the only answer is "it depends."

My hunch is the market will improve for buyers within a year or so. More choices, more folks ready to sell at traditional values. Over the last 25 years, the market has been very steady......except for the Covid times. That said, quality examples of boats have sold well even in lukewarm economies.

But if you're looking for a very specific boat and they are in limited supply, you don't have a lot of choice. Even if the market relaxes, no guarantee your heart throb won't have suitors.

Good luck

Peter
 
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So the question becomes when do you want to use the boat. Yes probably many boats will come on the market in the next couple of years as the covid PPP loan buyers can't keep up the ongoing costs, and the bonuses aren't big enough anymore. But do you want to wait? Are you young and have time to be patient, or is your boating going to age limit out in a few years? You can lose a lot of fun time waiting, but maybe can get a better boat by waiting.
If you don't need the money for all you're other expenses, what good is it sitting in your pocket?
 
In the end, the only time anyone needs a boat is when the one they are on is sinking and the one next to them isn't. Other than that, it's discretionary.

I like that, first time I've read it.
 
mvweebles said:
But if you're looking for a very specific boat and they are in limited supply, you don't have a lot of choice. Even if the market relaxes, no guarantee your heart throb won't have suitors.

Peter
Click to expand...


Agreed


What are you looking for, if I may be so bold.
 
Steve1.0 said:
Agreed


What are you looking for, if I may be so bold.
Click to expand...

I am actually to afraid to play my cards out of paranoia of someone reading this and says to themselves...I have money and never considered that boat - I should go look at one. Once I purchase I will post a picture!
 
But if you're looking for a very specific boat and they are in limited supply, you don't have a lot of choice. Even if the market relaxes, no guarantee your heart throb won't have suitors.

Good luck

Thanks! Yes I believe you are correct on this!
 
But do you want to wait? Are you young and have time to be patient, or is your boating going to age limit out in a few years? You can lose a lot of fun time waiting, but maybe can get a better boat by waiting.
If you don't need the money for all you're other expenses, what good is it sitting in your pocket?[/QUOTE]

Fair points all. I am 54 and doing everything I can to jump out early...FIRE=Financial Independence Retire Early. I would add: FIREGB = Financial independence Retire Early and go boating.

SO I can wait...but I don't want to. Health is never guaranteed.
 
mike66 said:
In the end, the only time anyone needs a boat is when the one they are on is sinking and the one next to them isn't. Other than that, it's discretionary.

Fuuny!
Click to expand...
 
Lots of discussion on this topic here and on other forums.

The response that resonates most with me is this: how much is missing a season with to you? We have kids - our oldest just started HS. I don't know how many more seasons we'll get in before they won't tolerate spending the whole summer on a boat with us.

Alternatively, god forbid my or my partner's health might take a turn, or my parents', and I won't feel comfortable being away for weeks on end. This could happen in an instant & put on hold our cruising plans indefinitely.
 
YES, you are insane. No one else dares to tell you. :hide:

I can say it cause I am insane too and recognize it in you. I am sitting on my two month new to me boat as I type wondering when the old boat will sell. :banghead: I may have to sell the Harley, but I am waiting in case not.

BUT, I am happy to be where I am at. Once we made the decision to move to a bigger boat, once we found the type, there was no second thoughts about if I waited.

So if you do not have that feeling, if waiting adds more stress than jumping in when you found the one, then wait. :nonono:
 
Congrats on the new "toy" Steve!!!
FIRE,
My 2 cents worth (and worth every penny you paid :)), is "value" is subjective.
What I mean by that is, it is possible that prices may drop, availability may increase, and you MAY be able to look back and (for those reasons) "wish you had waited". However, it is also possible that due to your happiness with your specific new boat, and the good times and adventures you had experienced in the meanwhile, you are very happy you "took the plunge"????
So the best answer is "it really depends" on a number of "personal" factors besides the "economic ones".
Personally, I fear that we (most of the world) are headed for a deep recession (maybe even depression), and under those circumstances "luxury" items are often the first to "go" when people need food and shelter. I hope I am wrong!!
That being said, living on a boat might be a relatively inexpensive way to survive??
If money is the largest factor in your decision, then if it were me, I would wait. If not and a great example of the boat you want becomes available, then maybe making a move now is right?
 
FIRE said:
I am actually to afraid to play my cards out of paranoia of someone reading this and says to themselves...I have money and never considered that boat - I should go look at one. Once I purchase I will post a picture!
Click to expand...

That is a fair point. I would suggest making yourself a list of the attributes that model has and then trying to look for another model or custom boat that may have the same features, if nothing else, looking at boats is fun and traveling around to look at boats will bring you to interesting areas. You could list the features/attributes you are looking for the forum and you might get some suggestions your have never heard of.

I think a lot of shoppers get tunnel vision on a limited number of brands and models. Best of luck.
 
We bought our current boat 21 months ago, after 19 years boatless. We Wish we had done it 10 years ago.

Stating the obvious, In a niche market, your opportunity to buy only comes up when boat is available for purchase . . . . so if you wait, you reduce the number of boats you get to chose from. If you know what you want (which you say you do) and if you have the financial resources currently available to purchase, AND you have the time right now to maintain/use the boat without crimping your current job/lifestyle, why are you waiting?
 
I think a lot of shoppers get tunnel vision on a limited number of brands and models. Best of luck.[/QUOTE]

I don't think we have tunnel vision....My wife and I have been " window shopping" for years and I travel extensively in business which has allowed me to visit so many boat shows at the tail end of a trip. Funny that I have (invented) many trips to FL during boat show season! We have also attended a couple of TrawlerFests and will go this weekend to Baltimore. You are absolutely right in that boat shopping is fun and allows you to see new places.
That said we have created/maintained the list of wants and needs similar to buying your first house (must have a and want to haves). That said after years of pointed research including reading so many TF posts on the subject we feel confident and anxious to begin.
 
firehoser75 said:
Personally, I fear that we (most of the world) are headed for a deep recession (maybe even depression), and under those circumstances "luxury" items are often the first to "go" when people need food and shelter. I hope I am wrong!!

If money is the largest factor in your decision, then if it were me, I would wait. If not and a great example of the boat you want becomes available, then maybe making a move now is right?
Click to expand...

I'd say wait about 4-6 months when people are crying that the world is coming to an end. You also may want to shop in the UK or Europe. The exchange rates are insane right now.
 
After the Newport Boat show a few years ago my wife has decided she'd really like a Carver C40 command bridge, about 2015 to 2017. The price hasn't dropped one penny since we first noticed them -- still around half a million, asking price, for what that's worth. On the other hand, in our 450 slip marina, we've noticed more and more boats for sale and more boats were stored through the summer and never launched. Taking a money-saving break maybe? But either way, completely mixed signals. After about 103 discussions like this on the forum, I have no idea where it's going to go. But I do know for sure, life is short. I got our boys' school pictures on Friday. I'm always shocked at how fast they've grown, even though I see them every day. My oldest son's voice is cracking (14). I hear him call downstairs in his lower register now and it's very unsettling, and I get this vague sense of panic that they'll be gone to college the next time I blink. I don't need a Nordhavn (although it sure would be nice, if I win the lottery), but either way, get out there. We'll all be dead in five minutes.
 
kthoennes said:
After the Newport Boat show a few years ago my wife has decided she'd really like a Carver C40 command bridge, about 2015 to 2017. The price hasn't dropped one penny since we first noticed them -- still around half a million, asking price, for what that's worth. On the other hand, in our 450 slip marina, we've noticed more and more boats for sale and more boats were stored through the summer and never launched. Taking a money-saving break maybe? But either way, completely mixed signals. After about 103 discussions like this on the forum, I have no idea where it's going to go. But I do know for sure, life is short. I got our boys' school pictures on Friday. I'm always shocked at how fast they've grown, even though I see them every day. My oldest son's voice is cracking (14). I hear him call downstairs in his lower register now and it's very unsettling, and I get this vague sense of panic that they'll be gone to college the next time I blink. I don't need a Nordhavn (although it sure would be nice, if I win the lottery), but either way, get out there. We'll all be dead in five minutes.
Click to expand...
I have read many accounts of those who waited for one reason or another only to have an unforseen life event dash their hopes and dreams.
 
A commodities trader shared with me:
“He who thinks he is smarter than Market God, Market God punishes”. As we all know, timing markets is hard. Same may hold for the boat market.

Buy on value and it will, likely hold its value in the long run. Very well maintained boats seem to do well in most markets.

Free advice is worth…
 
We found our retirement boat about 3-4 years earlier than anticipated. Decided to go for it and use the time and resources on the retirement boat vs. the existing “weekender”.

I am glad we did as it has taken some time to go through all of the systems, get educated, and collect spares.

We have had 5 great summer cruises, so if life dictated a sale tomorrow, it has been a good run.

The value of the boat has appreciated.

We continue to spend on our continuous refit, but it is enjoyable and we intend to go far beginning next year.

In summary, we have no regrets with the “buy now” or early purchase.
 
MY opinion is that if you are asking this question you should wait. If the boat you are thinking about was the "One" that had completely swept you off your feet, and would never be available again in the future because it is a one off custom, you wouldn't be asking this question, you would be buying it. I think you will be able to find much more value for your money in the near future if you wait a little bit.
 
As the interest rates go up they will reduce the number of people buying boats which generally will reduce prices. Falling markets will also reduce the number of people buying boats too so another factor that will reduce prices. You'll have to decide if either of those forces will impact the boat you would like to buy.
 
Inflation is taking 8% a year of any funds you plan using for the boat. Will the boat depreciate at 8%?
If you want to buy, do it. The right boat of course.Life is too short to procrastinate too long.
In a week we really could be in a nuclear world war. You could wait to see how that plays out, but there will always be some impediment. A world war is a biggie, but what the heck, buy the boat.
 
FIRE said:
I think a lot of shoppers get tunnel vision on a limited number of brands and models. Best of luck.
Click to expand...

I don't think we have tunnel vision....My wife and I have been " window shopping" for years and I travel extensively in business which has allowed me to visit so many boat shows at the tail end of a trip. Funny that I have (invented) many trips to FL during boat show season! We have also attended a couple of TrawlerFests and will go this weekend to Baltimore. You are absolutely right in that boat shopping is fun and allows you to see new places.
That said we have created/maintained the list of wants and needs similar to buying your first house (must have a and want to haves). That said after years of pointed research including reading so many TF posts on the subject we feel confident and anxious to begin.[/QUOTE]

We are originally from LI as well - boating has always been fun in that area.
Have you spent much time on a boat? Do you have a very good idea what your future boating adventures will contain? Will your ideal boat fit those intended adventures within reason?
We ask because our boating needs have changed over the 30+ past years of boating....
 
There are more "logical and what if reasons" not to buy right now. For instance, from another forum I belong to:


And here we thought current generations would skate by without their "world war" equivalent...

Land war of aggression in Europe? Check.
Specific threats of nuclear weapon use? Check.
Sabotage of key energy delivery system? Check.
Widespread economic destruction? Check.
Players around the globe deciding on how involved to get? Check.

Hopefully this conflict will result in better humans ala the Greatest Generation...

...but then the aftermath could be the ultimately destructive Post WWI period or the surprisingly prosperous Post WWII period...

However, if time and health is the most valuable asset, you should throw caution to the wind.
 
What is most important in my opinion is the willingness of you and your wife together, it sounds like this is a shared goal which is great. When it is a priority for both of you, it is much easier to contend with the challenges (expensive repairs, encountering bad weather, recurring costs, mistiming the market) rather than couples where one party is hesitant. If it is a high priority for both of you right now, then this is probably the right time.
 
iu
 
Go ahead if a 30% decline in value while paying 10% cost of boat yearly upkeep does not bother you.
Alternatively, wait two years and pay less while having more choice of boats. In the meantime, charter.
 
gsholz said:
Go ahead if a 30% decline in value while paying 10% cost of boat yearly upkeep does not bother you.
Alternatively, wait two years and pay less while having more choice of boats. In the meantime, charter.
Click to expand...

Well, yes, chartering is an excellent idea (and we've certainly done it), but unless you own, you forfeit that profound satisfaction of your own deck under your feet, with the thrilling power of 700 horses humming down below, gliding slowly out of your slip to embrace the wilds of the open sea, Master of All You Survey.

(...until you realize you didn't cast off that last mooring line and you look like a goober.)
 
I have two different opinions, though they actually co-exist just fine. The first opinion is lifestyle/happiness, and the second is financial/future prediction. Here goes:

1. <Happiness> You don't currently own a boat and you want to enjoy all of the pleasures of boating. Life is short and tomorrow is guaranteed to no one. If you can afford it, go for it. The joys of boating are many and varied. Again, go for it.

2. <Financial> Boats are selling at historically-high prices. Interest rates are climbing, future inflation is guaranteed (you can only print so much money before inflation kicks in), and when the inevitable belt-tightening happens boats (and RVs, and other non-necessities) will start selling faster than the market can absorb them. If you're a bargain hunter in this future scenario, an all-cash offer will get you something far better than you would normally be able to afford. The way I see the macro-economics impacting all of us, boats that are selling for $250K today will be selling for about half that in two to three years. Folks buying boats with only 10% down this year will be getting foreclosed on when the other carrying costs (routine maintenance, moorage, insurance, fuel, and then the unavoidable unexpected maintenance costs) force them into a can't-pay situation. If the housing market drops at the same time (these things all go together), imagine people with a home loan that is now underwater, plus AFTICA (Another Freaking Toy I Can't Afford) *and* stock market losses looking at how to make ends meet. I don't think it's going to be pretty. When you can't afford to keep your boat and it's worth less than you owe, it's pretty easy to hand the bank the boat and the note. I've lived through a few recessions and this can (and probably will) happen. So if you have a strong bank account and a strong stomach, hang tight and buy on the dip.

We did this analysis a little over six months ago and sold our beloved boat after ten wonderful years of cruising. We sold the boat for a solid 25% more than we would have gotten a year or more prior. Right now we are enjoying all of life's other (non-boating) pleasures. If we find we miss boating in a few years we will be in a position to get back in... who knows?
 
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