Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09

Not looking good. Living in Florida you have to expect these but one could hope that the forecasters are wrong. Crap!

Greetings,
Yep. Don't look good.

If you are in Jaxsonville, you have a lot less to worry about than those in the south west parts of Florida.......The storm will weaken considerably as it travels over land without the warm water to sustain it.......and 8 or 9 days out things can change drastically.

The thing I hate about hurricane forecasts is the hope and prayer hand-wringing because it's a zero sum game. Right now, the "M" is right around Sarasota, which puts St Petersburg on the clean side, which is good for us, bad for Sarasota.

The models have a surprising amount of convergence right now.

Peter

I truly hate the fact that the current cone has the 2PM Weds "M" right on top of us. We've got the house sold and are ready to head out - Buyer's walkthrough is scheduled for Weds morning and closing is scheduled for Thurs AM. Hoping this storm will move to one side or the other...

Benthic2 said:

If you are in Jaxsonville, you have a lot less to worry about than those in the south west parts of Florida.......The storm will weaken considerably as it travels over land without the warm water to sustain it.......and 8 or 9 days out things can change drastically.

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I agree but disagree and hope you’re right that things can change

Winds and/or/storm surge plus winds are a big issue when a hurricane hits land but even when the storm is weakening or 100 miles away you can still be screwed. Jacksonville had 250 year flooding in 2017 with Irma. We live at less than 5’ above sea level.

Spent the day taking down canvas, stowing deck chairs - all the fun stuff. If the current cone of uncertainty (remember agent 99?) holds true we will see a Cat 3 pass right over our marina Really surprised that I was about the only one doing boat preps there today - my guess is tomorrow will be different...

Preparing the best I can and hoping for the best. Admiral and I will watch it all on the news while in Atlanta. Just too old and grumpy to deal with this hurricane crap on-scene anymore

markpj23 said:

Spent the day taking down canvas, stowing deck chairs - all the fun stuff. If the current cone of uncertainty (remember agent 99?) holds true we will see a Cat 3 pass right over our marina Really surprised that I was about the only one doing boat preps there today - my guess is tomorrow will be different...

Preparing the best I can and hoping for the best. Admiral and I will watch it all on the news while in Atlanta. Just too old and grumpy to deal with this hurricane crap on-scene anymore

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We are doing boat prep too, except for the winter…

Now TS Ian. No detectable change in course.

Greetings,

TS Ian? What happened to Hermoine? https://www.almanac.com/content/hurricane-names

RT Firefly said:

Greetings,

TS Ian? What happened to Hermoine? https://www.almanac.com/content/hurricane-names

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Moron weathermen (weatherpersons) could not pronounce Hermoine...

Greetings,
Windy forecasts it will cross Florida from Cape Coral to Satellite Beach then pay a visit Myrtle Beach, SC. Wherever it goes, stay safe. I will extend the same wish to those that are in the path of, now, TS Fiona...

https://halifax.citynews.ca/local-news/batten-down-the-hatches-fiona-arrives-today-5861239

rt firefly said:

greetings,
yep. Don't look good.

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lol rt.

mvweebles said:

The thing I hate about hurricane forecasts is the hope and prayer hand-wringing because it's a zero sum game. Right now, the "M" is right around Sarasota, which puts St Petersburg on the clean side, which is good for us, bad for Sarasota.

The models have a surprising amount of convergence right now.

Peter View attachment 132287

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With a Cat 4 it will be problematic no matter which side if its close enough and you are at or near the coast.

smitty477 said:

With a Cat 4 it will be problematic no matter which side if its close enough and you are at or near the coast.

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All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.

Latest NHC projection attached. Remarkably steady forecast.......for now

Peter

Yes better to be on the dry side.

I still remember when someone asked me, "What do you do when it rains?" to which I replied, "I generally stay inside and dry."

I think I remember that the dangerous semi circle's real power is partially defined by the speed of the storm when it hits.

On the other hand, surface winds in the lesser semicircle are are often degraded by land based obstructions,, except where funneling occurs or tornadic activity....

If the present forecast track holds, the west coast of Florida from the Keys to around Bradenton is in for major punishment. But, if the eyewall drifts just 40 miles to the west of the forecast track, it will make landfall someplace north of Clearwater. In that case, Tampa Bay itself will finally experience its "perfect storm" scenario, with hurricane-force winds out of the southwest pushing water through the Bay entrance causing major flooding all the way up its rivers and estuaries. If it doesn't happen with Hurricane Ian, it will eventually - just a matter of time. I love the Tampa Bay area - lived there for 25 years - but its vulnerability to this particular hurricane orientation is scary.

mvweebles said:

All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.

Latest NHC projection attached. Remarkably steady forecast.......for now

PeterView attachment 132299

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Interactive SLOSH map3, for modeling...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/?text#map

IF you choose to believe the projection, they shifted the models projections further west with a projected land fall around St Petersburg FL

I live just north of Clearwater in new port Richey and hope it drifts really far west and clears our area.
But is is what it is. I’ll be watching via my security cameras unless the power goes out as I’m currently in CT with our travel trailer

Blissboat said:

If the present forecast track holds, the west coast of Florida from the Keys to around Bradenton is in for major punishment. But, if the eyewall drifts just 40 miles to the west of the forecast track, it will make landfall someplace north of Clearwater. In that case, Tampa Bay itself will finally experience its "perfect storm" scenario, with hurricane-force winds out of the southwest pushing water through the Bay entrance causing major flooding all the way up its rivers and estuaries. If it doesn't happen with Hurricane Ian, it will eventually - just a matter of time. I love the Tampa Bay area - lived there for 25 years - but its vulnerability to this particular hurricane orientation is scary.

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I have wondered about wind-surge pushing up Tampa Bay. I was a presenter at a TrawlerFest in Solomons MD in the early 2000s. That year, a hurricane had swept up the Chesapeake a few weeks prior (Isabel?). The surge floated docks over their pilings, and when the water ran out, created an ultra-low tide. A lot of damage, just from the wind-pushed surge up the bay.

When Irma came through in 2017, I was living in St Pete. I was pretty sure my house was a goner when I left to stay with friends in Ocala. However, Irma veered inland placing us on the "clean" side, however JAX was hit pretty hard. We had bo property damage, but sure had a lot of yard cleanup to do.

Seems there are natural threats in all my adopted homes. SF had earthquakes, mountain cabin in Colorado has wildfires.

Peter

Nuts!

My neighbor, who is older than Methuselah and has lived on the northern Gulf coast all his life, says that right now if he had a boat at Apalachicola or Carrabelle, that he would be very worried. He thinks the eye will come ashore over there, no matter what anyone else may think. Who knows? Not me.

Kuncicky said:

My neighbor, who is older than Methuselah and has lived on the northern Gulf coast all his life, says that right now if he had a boat at Apalachicola or Carrabelle, that he would be very worried. He thinks the eye will come ashore over there, no matter what anyone else may think. Who knows? Not me.

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I think he may be right...

Kuncicky said:

My neighbor, who is older than Methuselah and has lived on the northern Gulf coast all his life, says that right now if he had a boat at Apalachicola or Carrabelle, that he would be very worried. He thinks the eye will come ashore over there, no matter what anyone else may think. Who knows? Not me.

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The 11 PM EDT advisory would seem to bear your friend's worries out, but Ian is still four-plus days away. There's a lot of worrying yet to be done.

The point of landfall, just a few miles either way, certainly can make all the difference - just ask the folks in Panama City who experienced Hurricane Michael on October 10, 2018. But even twelve hours out, predicting the point of landfall is a fool's game. Honestly, anytime a Big One takes aim at the eastern Gulf of Mexico, boaters everywhere along the coast should check their insurance, prepare as best they can and then lace-up their running shoes.

Sunday 8 am update.

HTurner said:

I think he may be right...

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Yeah, he was cackling a bit this morning when I went over and had coffee with him. Well, we will just have to wait and see what happens.

Greetings,
While everyone is rightly concerned about Ian, take a moment and see what devastation Fiona has brought to the Canadian Maritimes.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia


I think there are a few TF members in that region.