Considering a North Pacific 45

magna 6882 said:

i cant validate nor do i really care who sells the most or least boats. Just interesting reading.

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I'd love to read more than just the chart, but can't find it there. Can you please link to it so we can go to the site.

Now we know it's US only. Don't know if entire or partial year. Assume it's revenue based. I wonder if it's new or new and used. Appears new and used to have Grand Banks that high. Just glad to see chart but want to go to the site to understand better.

What it clearly isn't is worldwide sales of new trawlers, nor do I think it is US sales of new Trawlers.

The one thing i find interesting is the back log for most boat yards. I think most of the 2022 hulls are sold and folks are looking at 2023. The same with motor-homes and campers. motorhome inventory for 2022 is allocated so a new build would be 2023.
My only concern is are folks using cash on hand or borrowing. If the later we could see some boats for sale.

magna 6882 said:

The one thing i find interesting is the back log for most boat yards. I think most of the 2022 hulls are sold and folks are looking at 2023. The same with motor-homes and campers. motorhome inventory for 2022 is allocated so a new build would be 2023.
My only concern is are folks using cash on hand or borrowing. If the later we could see some boats for sale.

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As a manufacturer, always the reminder, it's not a sale until it ships and payment is collected. All those orders for late 2022 and for 2023 can vaporize quickly if conditions change. In 2007, the 2008 order books were full and into 2009. I always laugh at new business people who tout the order cannot be cancelled. Well, when they say they are cancelling and not going to pay are you still going to build and ship it? People see the time moving out and jump in line and that's really all the 2023 bookings are today, people getting in line, saying they intend to buy, but things can always change.

BandB said:

As a manufacturer, always the reminder, it's not a sale until it ships and payment is collected. All those orders for late 2022 and for 2023 can vaporize quickly if conditions change. In 2007, the 2008 order books were full and into 2009. I always laugh at new business people who tout the order cannot be cancelled. Well, when they say they are cancelling and not going to pay are you still going to build and ship it? People see the time moving out and jump in line and that's really all the 2023 bookings are today, people getting in line, saying they intend to buy, but things can always change.

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When you are making construction progress payments as the build proceeds that is harder to do. As is the case with Helmsman, at least.

FWT said:

When you are making construction progress payments as the build proceeds that is harder to do. As is the case with Helmsman, at least.

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Yeah, with Fleming you put 10% up and then get hit with the big balance less a little as the hull build starts. And its a contractual guarantee so it's not a refundable deposit!

FWT said:

When you are making construction progress payments as the build proceeds that is harder to do. As is the case with Helmsman, at least.

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But the progress payments haven't proceeded on many of these. Certainly nothing but the initial on 2023 builds.

Also 10% should be destined for escrow until construction actually starts and during construction you have have ownership of the partially built boat.

magna 6882 said:

The one thing i find interesting is the back log for most boat yards. I think most of the 2022 hulls are sold and folks are looking at 2023. The same with motor-homes and campers. motorhome inventory for 2022 is allocated so a new build would be 2023.
My only concern is are folks using cash on hand or borrowing. If the later we could see some boats for sale.

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The point i was trying to make is people seem to be enjoying life and having fun. Perhaps some of the deals wont go thru but who cares. At least they were trying to get started with a more enjoyable life and likely sh*t happens to derail there plans. What i like to see is folks trying. From what i can tell people are deciding to give some of these other lifestyles a try which is a good thing. Life is shorter then we think.

magna 6882 said:

The point i was trying to make is people seem to be enjoying life and having fun. Perhaps some of the deals wont go thru but who cares. At least they were trying to get started with a more enjoyable life and likely sh*t happens to derail there plans. What i like to see is folks trying. From what i can tell people are deciding to give some of these other lifestyles a try which is a good thing. Life is shorter then we think.

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And my only point is that what goes up must come down. Right now, many are riding a painted pony. I hope for the best, but history says it can't continue indefinitely. I know builders having great years, but still quite worried. To show how fragile it is, when the pandemic first hit and the first major restrictions were put in, all builders I know got immediate calls and many got cancellations of planned boats and even boats being built. We moved ahead in line due to one going on what turned out to be a temporary hold. I know a small SF builder in Palm Beach County who had two out of three builds cancelled. Now a month or two later they couldn't meet all the demand.

We saw another unbelievable rise in house prices. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon (yes, we did too, but only a little). Slowly reality is setting in as seen by Zillow's disastrous attempt at buying and selling. The hope is that it's only a mild leveling and not 13 years ago repeated.

I have no idea what is coming or when. I remain either optimistically pessimistic or cautiously optimistic or hopefully pessimistic or somewhere in between.

Just don't put too much stock in "order books" as items can fall out of those books as fast as the go in. It's like boat shows. I've never known of one where those showing didn't declare it a success. I use to have sales forces report after shows in the industry I was in and the report was always "The line was very well received." Well, I waited and found out some of those lines weren't at all well received. It was like grandmother's who aren't about to tell their daughter, their baby isn't gorgeous.

Wondering if anyone with the NP45 have added ballast into the hollow keel? I know some of them have come from the factory with lead ballast, but earlier ones I think had a hollow keel. Anyone any experience with adding concrete, or lead, and comments on improvement in stability?
Cheers

canuck52 said:

Wondering if anyone with the NP45 have added ballast into the hollow keel? I know some of them have come from the factory with lead ballast, but earlier ones I think had a hollow keel. Anyone any experience with adding concrete, or lead, and comments on improvement in stability?
Cheers

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The NP 45 weight in at 44k lbs. no need for ballast. We do not have stabilizers either. We have heard about adding a gyro (eg Seakeeper) so it depends on how you might use the boat. For us in the PNW there does not appear to be a need unless going into open ocean or heavy waves.

No ballast on our np 45, not needed. It’s not a full displacement hull. Installed stabilizers. Wouldn’t go without.