Oil $$$

Financial news is reporting that traders are increasing their bets on $200 oil. That can't be big bets, enough to drive things, but still.

The popularity of go-fast trawlers to fade, in favor of go-slow trawlers?

Boat sales in general to moderate from a red hot market to something less?

Transient slips easier to find?

Time will tell. Forecasts are meaningless anyway.

Boating popularity has been cyclical during my lifetime. Oil might cause a top of this cycle.

I spent a career in the oil industry. Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up. This is necessary if 'alternatives' are to have any chance of competing. However, most of us boaters have been through the previous cycle when oil went over $100/bbl. Yes it makes fueling expensive but let's be honest, the cost of fuel isn't that much compared to the total cost of owning a boat. So the only effect directly related to fuel cost that I've seen is more people displacing. As a secondary effect if oil does go to $200, it'll likely cause an economic downturn. That can slow the boating industry since it's a discressionary expense.

Slowmo said:

.....Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up......

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If that were the case wouldn't oil only be going up in the US, and stable everywhere else ?

Certainly what people are willing to pay is related to their discretionary income available to pay it.

Slowmo said:

Yes it makes fueling expensive but let's be honest, the cost of fuel isn't that much compared to the total cost of owning a boat. So the only effect directly related to fuel cost that I've seen is more people displacing. As a secondary effect if oil does go to $200, it'll likely cause an economic downturn. That can slow the boating industry since it's a discressionary expense.

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Agree 100%, aside from offshore fisherman and go fast boats, the actual percentage of your boating expences that are spent on fuel are almost an afterthought. Experienced boaters know this but first time shoppers don't realize this so it impacts the market and therefore the value of boats and of course the overall economic landscape is driving consumer confidence, investment returns and several non- direct factors impacting the demand for boats.

Tangent: Recreational boats spend the vast majority of their time sitting at the dock, using no fuel functioning very well as weekend escapes or just an excuse to hang around the marina and visit with like minded individuals. The term dock queen is kind of a derogatory label but if we are honest with ourselves and our boats actual usage, the floating condos are the most effective boats for their practical usage. (I still think they are ugly and would own one).

Slowmo said:

... Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up...

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Clearly the effort to stop/slow COVID is showing results.
The worldwide oil price drop in 2020 was due to the drastic travel and work
reductions that cut demand for fuel, a tough way to get cheaper crude.

Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up.

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All part of the plan.

localboy said:

All part of the plan.

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Part of what plan? By whom? To what end? Look, the oil market is a WORLD market. It is not, and cannot be, controlled by any one country. It's called supply and demand, quite a simple concept with just a bit of tgought.

There is a green agenda around the world in case you've been asleep for the last 15 years. The only 2 ways to advance the cause rapidly are to limit the supply of fossil fuels and give government subsidies to alternatives. It's not going to be cheap.

mike66 said:

There is a green agenda around the world in case you've been asleep for the last 15 years. The only 2 ways to advance the cause rapidly are to limit the supply of fossil fuels and give government subsidies to alternatives. It's not going to be cheap.

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So, pray tell, who now is limiting the supply of fossil fuels? Right. No one and no proposals to do so.

Prices are set at the margin. The highest price someone is willing to pay sets the market price.

The market value of publicly traded companies is set by the price paid for the last share traded of the day.

A year ago the US was an exporter of oil. Today it is an importer. Policy matters.

But this thread is about the potential impact of higher oil prices on boating.

catalinajack said:

So, pray tell, who now is limiting the supply of fossil fuels? Right. No one and no proposals to do so.

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OPEC+ is increasing supply in 'measured' steps, while economies are rebounding faster than energy supplies are increasing.

Worldwide demand is exceeding supply with a variety of factors contributing to it, including a group that is literally limiting their output specifically to raise prices.

U.S. production is down more than 2 million barrels from pre-pandemic levels with various factors (a combination of financial, environmental and political) tempering supply of both oil and gas output domestically.

Still 3 bucks a gallon here in Gloucester,i need to put a couple hundred gallons on but not sure if i should try to wait for price to go down,usually every winter it gets between 1.90 and 2.25 for the lowest

Lostsailor13 said:

Still 3 bucks a gallon here in Gloucester,i need to put a couple hundred gallons on but not sure if i should try to wait for price to go down,usually every winter it gets between 1.90 and 2.25 for the lowest

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Forecasts are for further increases for consumers at the pump, but reality won't be known until it arrives.

Just the other day I was trying to get a friend to give me a ride to pick up some oil that was on sale. I said let's go Brandon. Needless to say by the time we got there they were out.

FWT said:

...A year ago the US was an exporter of oil. Today it is an importer. Policy matters....

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This is called statistical cherry picking.

A year ago the economy had ground to a halt. The fact that we are using more oil now than last year is not a matter of policy, its a matter of economics. The country is coming back to life and needs fuel to do it.

Last year was the first time that the US was a net exporter of oil since 1949 when the EIA started keeping records.

And across the globe our fuel prices are also steadily rising as the world starts to climb out of the Covid induced downturn.

FWT said:

A year ago the US was an exporter of oil. Today it is an importer. Policy matters.

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A year ago America was energy independent, a certain pipeline was being built and South Dakota was producing AMERICAN energy. Today a pipeline for Russia is OK and OPEC controls the supply.

Benthic2 said:

This is called statistical cherry picking.

A year ago the economy had ground to a halt. The fact that we are using more oil now than last year is not a matter of policy, its a matter of economics. The country is coming back to life and needs fuel to do it.

Last year was the first time that the US was a net exporter of oil since 1949 when the EIA started keeping records.

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Then why, prey tell, was our pipeline halted? Hmmmm....

localboy said:

Then why, prey tell, was our pipeline halted? Hmmmm....

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The Keystone XL pipleline never operational so stopping construction had no impact on current oil supply. It was never "our" pipeline it was owned by a Canadian company ( so it would have been "imported" oil )

The Dakota Access Pipeline is still operational so North Dakota is still supplying oil

sbman said:

OPEC+ is increasing supply in 'measured' steps, while economies are rebounding faster than energy supplies are increasing.



Worldwide demand is exceeding supply with a variety of factors contributing to it, including a group that is literally limiting their output specifically to raise prices.



U.S. production is down more than 2 million barrels from pre-pandemic levels with various factors (a combination of financial, environmental and political) tempering supply of both oil and gas output domestically.

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As I said in another post, price is depedent on supply and demand, not the politician who happens to be residing in the White House. He, along with the rest of us, are along for the well as down.

localboy said:

A year ago America was energy independent, a certain pipeline was being built and South Dakota was producing AMERICAN energy. Today a pipeline for Russia is OK and OPEC controls the supply.

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OPEC does not control the price. Their ability to do so waned decades ago. Again, it is simple economics, supply and demand no matter how much you may wish to place blame on other things or individuals. By the way, the Keystone Pipeline, all that oil was to be EXPORTED.

"Certainly what people are willing to pay is related to their discretionary income available to pay it."

Diesel is simply heating oil ,"discretionary income" is not used to keep warm in winter.

"Part of what plan? By whom? To what end?"

This administration is directed by folks that will be delighted with Bidens goal of

$10.00 a gallon for gas, diesel and heating oil.

You have to enjoy Internet experts on matters like the oil industry and the economy when you get even close to anything political. For those old enough to remember this phrase, I think we have a "220/221 whatever it takes" moment here.....

Benthic2 said:

The Keystone XL pipleline never operational so stopping construction had no impact on current oil supply. It was never "our" pipeline it was owned by a Canadian company ( so it would have been "imported" oil )

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catalinajack said:

....By the way, the Keystone Pipeline, all that oil was to be EXPORTED.

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It all would have been IMPORTED!
It all would have been EXPORTED!
Whatever you do, just do not point a finger at the inept administration! And if you do, we are going to shut this thread down!

FWT said:

A year ago the US was an exporter of oil. Today it is an importer. matters.

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Do you have any resources to back this ^^ statement?

In 2020, the United States imported about 7.86 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum from about 80 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels (including ethanol and biodiesel). Crude oil imports of about 5.88 MMb/d accounted for about 75% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports in 2020, and non-crude oil petroleum accounted for about 25% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports.

In 2020, the United States exported about 8.50 MMb/d of petroleum to about 174 countries and 4 U.S. territories. Crude oil exports of about 3.21 MMb/d accounted for 38% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports in 2020. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -0.63 MMb/d in 2020, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 0.63 MMb/d in 2020.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

FF said:

"Certainly what people are willing to pay is related to their discretionary income available to pay it."

Diesel is simply heating oil ,"discretionary income" is not used to keep warm in winter.

"Part of what plan? By whom? To what end?"

This administration is directed by folks that will be delighted with Bidens goal of

$10.00 a gallon for gas, diesel and heating oil.

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Baloney. Why would anyone wish for $10 oil. Kool-aid anyone.

catalinajack said:

Baloney. Why would anyone wish for $10 oil. Kool-aid anyone.

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There are political factors involved in the lack of U.S. production increases, as well as economic and other factors, it's a combination of things and it's a worldwide issue. I don't know of any documented statement from a U.S. politician laying out higher gas prices as a specific goal.

Here is an analysis:

Behind the Energy Crisis: Fossil Fuel Investment Drops, and Renewables Aren’t Ready

Mod hat on: a gentle reminder folks that political discussions are on this board need to be directly related to boating.

General discussions, statements, images and links that are political in nature or that reference general government policies, weaponry, gun rights and religion are not allowed in ANY areas of the forum. Discussions about current or pending legislation or regulations, weapons and religion that directly pertain to Boating are acceptable but will be closed or removed if they wander off topic or become disruptive.

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https://www.trawlerforum.com/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rules

Obama acknowledged that some resistance to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions comes from people’s worries about economics. “You can’t fault somebody for being concerned about paying the bills and being able to fill up your tank to get to your job,” he said.
Politoco 3/17/15
The green movement comes at a cost, and we're seeing some of that now. It's worldwide and not going away. As I said, hopefully it will be worth it.
In the meantime, having a single Lehman trawler will allow us to boat during retirement, no matter what diesel costs. I wonder how many of the new large planing boats will become dock queens. Seems like there are many big new boats this year and last here in Narragansett Bay since COVID.

Janet H said:

Mod hat on: a gentle reminder folks that political discussions are on this board need to be directly related to boating.



https://www.trawlerforum.com/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rules

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THANK YOU!!!

~Alan