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Old 04-29-2021, 11:37 AM   #1
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Vaccine distribution

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Old 04-29-2021, 11:54 AM   #2
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So with Covax there would not be any shortage, not only Canada but all the poor countries would have all the vaccines they need.
Give me a break, multi level source for skimming off the top.
Go Bilateral deals who needs WHO.
If Canada has 5 times the amount needed on order surely when it is produced and available Trudy will most likely give it away to these poorer countries.
Meanwhile we are borrowing AZ from a country that has chosen not to use it on their own people.
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Old 04-29-2021, 01:09 PM   #3
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WHO is the major administrator of CoVAX

https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax

We need WHO involved for this to function. Unless you live in a first world country that’s who needs WHO Steve.


Just like with so many other things it’s much easier to stop the evolution into a pandemic when it’s in the epidemic or better yet small confined endemic stage. Think fire be in in a forest or closely situated housing. For the last several decades infectious agents of concern have come from the transpecies jump from the animal world to people. Recently there’s been a shift in gestalt. Rather than waiting for the agent to be disseminated into the human population researchers are looking for evidence of exposure to animal pathogens in individuals in contact with potential animal hosts even before examples of significant human illness or dissemination occurs. This is occurring with both domestic animals (poultry, swine etc.) as well as wild animals ( birds, bats, pangolins etc.). These individuals are to be screened in the absence of significant clinical disease. The comprehensive network of viral researchers throughout all member countries of WHO is instrumental in order to achieve this surveillance.

Throughout all the threads on C19 I’ve tried to stress the importance of viral evolution. Look at the history of influenza or any viral ill with international concern. They tend to start in animals. Then mutate sufficiently to be able to infect humans. Then progressively become more contagious or die out. If they don’t die out become progressively more clinically more significant as they continue to mutate. If they mutate to become too quickly lethal before their able to infect sufficient other hosts they fade. Otherwise they become endemic and persists indefinitely until a more aggressive and successful agent appears or a effective public health response occurs.

In order to achieve control you must think globally. You should first do what you can to achieve control at the time of interface between animal and human host. If not successful then as a confined infection. But once widely disseminated global measures are required. If any breeding population remains either inside a country (think vaccine resistance in the US) or in a country (think India and Brazil) you can pretty much predict further mutations and ultimately an diffuse endemic state requiring an effective public health response such as vaccination and/or effective reasonably inexpensive therapy

. Epidemiologists, viral scientists and physicians have known this prior to the current pandemic. Unfortunately some politicians have had difficulties accepting the importance of this and have been reluctant to allocate resources to WHO/COVAX. Fortunately this is changing. Geopolitically both China and Russia have made political brownie points on the vaccine front throughout the world in my view. Hopefully we will do better in the future.

Until there’s further international coordination of response I think we the industrialized world will have a leg up on vaccination but it will always be a crapshoot if sufficient vaccine escape will occur or vaccinate non compliance will occur in sufficient numbers as to effect efficacy.

Please vaccinate.
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Old 04-29-2021, 01:15 PM   #4
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Hopefully we will do better in the future.
I am not optimistic.
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Old 04-29-2021, 01:34 PM   #5
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HC

Just answer this, would Covax have produced more vaccine shots than are currently available?
I say no way unless the best scientists of the world sat on their hands because WHO & Covax was not well funded.
Of course there are dozens of production facilities owned by WHO/Covax not producing because again the first world did not fund them.
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Old 04-29-2021, 02:41 PM   #6
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Steve this

“Of course there are dozens of production facilities owned by WHO/Covax not producing because again the first world did not fund them”

Is not true.

Neither WHO nor COVAX own any facilities.

Yes, more vaccines would have been made and as importantly would being sent out and in the arms of people throughout the world if this was handled differently. At present there’s a significant amount of vaccine being warehoused. It has a shelf life. Hopefully will be used before expired. Even so much of the first line medical personnel throughout the world is unvaccinated at present. Difficult if not impossible to replace MDs,RNs, respiratory therapists and the like in a short time frame. Interventions to vaccinate this relatively small population would have made a huge difference.
Vaccine is only useful if given to people. Pharma is responsible to their shareholders. They aren’t likely to produce vaccine without the expectation they will be paid. In fact prepaid.
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Old 04-29-2021, 02:57 PM   #7
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"Yes, more vaccines would have been made"

HOW, you said there are no facilities sitting unused, so how could more be produced?
Bothe Phizer and moderna had to retool and stop production. (price renegotiations no doubt).
Canada cannot get supply fast enough to distribute.
The US is sitting on a stockpile of AZ and I expect it will be on its way as soon as every American that wants a shot gets one, the AZ is backup perhaps.
I thank the guy that fast tracked where we are now by cutting that red tape. It was supposed to take years, but suddenly Covax can do better.

You are welcome to your opinion, I will keep mine.
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Old 04-29-2021, 05:43 PM   #8
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“Pfizer did not accept federal funding to help develop or manufacture the vaccine, unlike front-runners Moderna and AstraZeneca.” From NYT but also reported elsewhere. They declined Warp Speed funds but still got their approvals at the head of the line.

BioNtech received funds from German government not the US.

Oxford was and is also independent of the US.

AZ and Moderna had already initiated the basic R&D before commencement of Operation WarpSpeed but did receive direct funds from Warp Speed to complete their programs.
All accepted prepayment for promised doses. You can make a very strong case that the prepurchase arrangements which were were part of Warp speed was very important. You can also make the strong case that finally sorting out how to put shots in arms which occurred after warp speed is a most excellent thing.

Pharma was greatly incentivized to respond as quickly as possible knowing getting some form of approval quickly meant big bucks for them. Being among the first to develop and sell doses was where the money was. Operation Warp Speed was helpful but not instrumental in the rapidity of development. Having prepurchase contracts from the US and other governments not involved in warp speed, in my view, was a and likely the major incentive.

Sputnik and Sinovac even more rapid development and dispersal into second and third world countries than Warp Speed/western Pharma companies was alluded to above.

By the way you might want to read what I wrote previously. I never said there weren’t production facilities sitting unused. Dislike being misquoted or having my words misconstrued. Let’s continue in a gentlemanly fashion so we’re not shut down. Thanks.

Pharma commonly subs out work to other companies to ramp up production. Pharma commonly sets up production facilities or repurposes facilities to meet expected demand and settled contractual obligations. Looking at the video at the start of thread thought you would appreciate if COVAX had similar direct prepurchase contracts with Pharma as the industrialized countries Pharma would be strongly incentivize to increase production and deliver vaccine in a timely manner to that organization.

Totally agree the way the biotech and pharmaceutical industries are operating has major flaws in meeting the public good. Have strong feelings about that but that’s another thread and not likely appropriate here. In short if they could make a buck off it they’d do it as demonstrated by Phizer. Warp Speed or no Warp Speed.
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Old 04-29-2021, 06:52 PM   #9
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ESL and speed reading accounts for the misquote misunderstood.

Fact is there are no empty facilities and those producing are maxed out. Demand is greater than supply. Hard to understand how funding covax would produce more shots.
Phizer and moderna seem to have cornerex the market. If US does not use AZ they should give/sell to someone who will. (Not WHO).
J&J may find a new market. How many more flaovors do we need?
The main problem with this world is not sharing medicine tech. Everyone wants a piece of the pie with their product if you give us the funds.
HC let us just agree to disagree and stop going in circles.
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Old 04-29-2021, 07:29 PM   #10
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HC let us just agree to disagree and stop going in circles.
Disagreement should not destroy common courtesy.
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Old 04-29-2021, 09:34 PM   #11
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The north beat the south in large part because they could ramp up production and deal with the military logistical demands required to win.
America was most remarkable in how rapidly we were able to ramp up production and repurpose our industrial might to be successful in WW2.
We are capable of the most remarkable things as are the European democracies.
You’re right current facilities are at maximum capacity. In the prior post I tried to explain how the incredible increase in production capabilities occurred and why. I have great faith in the ingenuity and intelligence of America and for that manner the European democracies as well. I’m sure production would have rapidly expanded further if Pharma was so directed and they deemed it in their economic interest to do so. They, like any business, will expand if and when it makes economic sense to do so. Being left with excess capacity when the pandemic resolves is not in their economic interest. They need to take that into their calculus as well. Nor is making product for non paying customers nor selling discounted product below cost good business. Their driver is to run a successful business and be economically prudent. They’ve done a most remarkable job and are to be congratulated. The scientists, public health community, governments and public have different drivers. Fortunately, they were mainly congruent in vaccine development both in the west as well as in China and Russia. But in actual delivery as shots into arms you can’t reasonably expect any pharmaceutical company to drive themselves into bankruptcy by supplying vaccine for free or discounted below cost of production. Why would they expand production for the third world unless they had realistic expectations of being paid? Why would they give up property rights to allow others to produce their products?
Yes , I respectfully disagree. The world could gear up to produce adequate vaccine for its population. The world could develop delivery systems and train the required personnel. Seriously doubt this will occur anytime soon. Issues such as exposed in the video of the original post of this thread are clearly in play.
As a aside- my understanding is that for the non wealthy non industrial nations world wide vaccine from Phizer nor Moderna aren’t the only ones in use Sinopharm,Sinovac and Sputnik are significant as well.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-tracker.html
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Old 04-29-2021, 10:03 PM   #12
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Hippo...sent you a PM...please respond there as requested by OP.
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Old 04-29-2021, 11:22 PM   #13
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I am not optimistic.
I`m none too optimistic about the future of this thread either.
Please SV, show some respect to Hippocampus,a qualified and valued contributor.
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Old 04-30-2021, 08:56 AM   #14
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I`m none too optimistic about the future of this thread either.
Please SV, show some respect to Hippocampus,a qualified and valued contributor.
A difference of opinion is not showing disrespect. HC and I have had meaningful conversation where two views are expressed.

Now if you want to show respect Bruce you can use my sig name instead of referring to me by my boat name.
Instead of HC if I knew his name I would use it.

I am done with this thread.
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Old 04-30-2021, 09:11 AM   #15
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Greetings,
Again, the solution comes down to $$. As noted, private businesses cannot be expected to donate vaccines. I think the WHO initiative (COVAX) is an attempt to mitigate shortcomings of the less fortunate nations and depends pretty much entirely on the generosity of richer member nations (foreign aid) in both $$ and logistics. This applies to other WHO portfolios as well as COVID.



I don't expect one can fault anyone for looking after their own first. One can hope that once the domestic obligations are met, the poor neighbours don't get forgotten...again. I'm not too optimistic either...
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Old 04-30-2021, 09:48 AM   #16
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RT- spot on in a very few words. As Twain said “if I had the time I would have written you a shorter letter “.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:20 PM   #17
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An interesting video, but no big surprises. Wonder if any of the Vox journalists have read Jared Diamond (Guns, Germs, and Steel, Collapse)? An unfortunate truth is that societies do not function altruistically, or rather, they do, but only up to a point.

It almost seems as if most countries were purchasing vaccines on a "futures" market with the intent to hedge the bets of what vaccine was promising for release date and efficacy.

Now it seems that countries have paid for their delivery and are now hoarding in order to see what the actual domestic need is before released to other countries. I wouldn't want to be the leader to release a vaccine that the country now requires to fight a new variant. As the ever so pragmatic Animal Mother said at the funeral in Full Metal Jacket. "Better you than me".

Now, I imagine that there are discussions on how to use vaccines as a "diplomatic" device to gain favour with other nations. Not unlike food aid programs (USAID and the old Canadian Wheat Board "sales"). The old tit for tat.

I'd like to think that there isn't any arms race thinking going on, but it sure seems like there might be some Dr. Strangelove "vaccine gap" undertones going on, particularly when discussion of which vaccines are going to be allowed for vaccine passports or not.

It would be reasonable assumption to think that the it would be the global population's benefit for everyone to be vaccinated. Countries independently act inequitable in a global setting. Like it or not the WHO is the only organization with a global presence to ensure some kind of vaccine equity. Flawed maybe, but it's really all we (big we) got.

This isn't a political post, as much as it is an observational post that once again it boils down to the haves and have-nots. You could attach any government, leader, or political party in any country to one side of the equation or the other.
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:36 PM   #18
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What 'costs' more, a global fast & equitable vaccine response to pandemics, or the current situation with deaths over 3,000,000 (and still climbing) with the heart ripped out of many economies?
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Old 04-30-2021, 01:40 PM   #19
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“Pfizer did not accept federal funding to help develop or manufacture the vaccine, unlike front-runners Moderna and AstraZeneca.” From NYT but also reported elsewhere. They declined Warp Speed funds but still got their approvals at the head of the line.
Sorry Hippo - typical NYT hype. It is inaccurate to imply that Pfizer operated independent of Operation Warp Speed. Pfizer had a $2 billion purchase guarantee to sell 100 million doses of its vaccine to the US government. When questioned about its statements that Pfizer "went it alone", Pfizer formally acknowledged that it was, in fact "participating" in Operation Warp Speed through this deal, although in a different manner than other pharma companies. The others received direct research grants rather than purchase guarantees.
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Old 04-30-2021, 03:15 PM   #20
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Please be careful in parsing my posts.
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I clearly said Phizer was part of the prepurchase arrangements. But I also said they accepted German not US money for the R & D which was part of operation warp speed. I further said that in my opinion given the risk mitigation prepurchase arrangements engender was as if not more important in the rapid development of their and other western vaccine development.

One can think of vaccine dispersal as having two parts. The R & D to invent a safe, effective vaccine as one but the second is equally important. Manufacturing and delivering the doses to the purchaser. Phizer didn’t accept US money for the first part and had their economic risk removed by the prepurchase agreements.

It is my opinion that the prepurchase arrangements by the US and other western democracies was the primary instrumental action leading to the rapid development of vaccines.
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