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Old 08-01-2020, 08:45 AM   #1721
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All I know is that it has been blown out of prortion. As long as it was cold in Canada and northern US states there were few cases. Now that it is warming up - voila - HUGE numbers. Canada for the most part above 54N is still relatively normal. Deaths are few and far between. Same was true down in ID-MT-WY-ND-ME until it warmed up. These are the American figures for Feb-May
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:56 AM   #1722
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All I know is that it has been blown out of prortion. As long as it was cold in Canada and northern US states there were few cases. Now that it is warming up - voila - HUGE numbers....
Egad.

It also was spreading from the original one person who got infected, then had to spread around the planet...in other words...at the bottom of the curve where there were the least amount infected!
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:03 AM   #1723
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At the end of May (that's the time at which your chart was plotting) there had been 862,830 confirmed cases worldwide.

As of today there has been a total of 17,822,969

Get the picture?!!?!!?!!?

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...s/#total-cases
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:24 AM   #1724
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On the same page that the carrier quoted there have been 11,155,040 totally cured.

Get the picture?!!?!!?!!?

It is not all doom and gloom
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:35 AM   #1725
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So far there have been 684,210 deaths attributed to Covid-19, and we are 1/2 way through the first year.

The deniers remind me of this guy being swallowed by a tsunami...uncomprehending to the last:

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Old 08-01-2020, 09:40 AM   #1726
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Soo: I don't think there is any point in us conversing beyond this point. "My" rebuttal isn't really a rebuttal. I was just saying how percentages vs. numbers work. That's not my theory; it's just the math. Math isn't really weak or strong; it just is.

But you know what's irritating?

You are sitting up there in BC, where COVID was taken seriously, science was used, and you (BC) as a whole are doing great. You are reaping the rewards of those around you using science, taking it seriously, and doing the right things. Yet you constantly minimize it and try to make it sound like it's just not that big a thing (sure, of course it's not once it was taken seriously and actions reflected that).


I'm in a state where the whole "hoax" thing that you regularly float has legs, cases are raging out of control, and not much is being done about it. Hearing you talk about how it's no big deal and floating "but it's not really that bad" theories grates. You would fit in great here, but I suspect you wouldn't like it once it was "real"and you were in the thick of it with other like-minded folks.
As well as it was handled here in BC there will be discussions around why seniors in care facilities continued to die after the discovery of the cause. The cause being health care workers working multiple facilities and carrying the covid. Visitors were banned but someone forgot about screening the workers. Our politicians and medical leaders acted very well organised and yet new outbreaks occurred months after in these facilities. I will be looking to hear the explanations of why and protocols to prevent it.
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:08 PM   #1727
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Egad.

It also was spreading from the original one person who got infected, then had to spread around the planet...in other words...at the bottom of the curve where there were the least amount infected!
The point is that during the Feb-May time frame - twice as many people in the USofA died of heart disease and 1.5x as many died from cancer.
https://covidtracking.com/data
USofA: 4,535,607 total positive cases; 145,447 deaths

Looking at Canada, so far there have been 116,312 cases; 101,327 recovered and 8,935 deaths. No deaths in Nunavut, NW & Yukon Territories - where it's still cold.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...ection.html#a1


When it was cold in Russia the number of cases was miniscule - it blew up when it warmed. Same with Iceland and Greenland - but it still hasn't warmed yet + they are islands that can control movement.
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:13 PM   #1728
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Hardly a blip on the screen. Remember this was SARS from 2002-03.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/his...ics-deadliest/

Just wait till next year when the Swine flu returns........all these viruses run in 13 yr cycles.
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:25 PM   #1729
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Originally Posted by Soo-Valley View Post
On the same page that the carrier quoted there have been 11,155,040 totally cured.

Get the picture?!!?!!?!!?

It is not all doom and gloom
Got it! Of course! It`s all joy and happiness! Except for the whining relatives of the half million and rising dead. About time they got over it and stopped missing their dead relatives.
Onwards and upwards! Especially with the infection rates and deaths. Man, they are nothing. Keep them boiling along. Stop the social distancing, forget the masks,no more quarantine for the sick... Just let it rip, it`s no problem.
There you are SV. Did I get it right?
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:25 PM   #1730
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Science can be trusted. With something new like Covid-19 it will take time for evidence to accumulate and be verified by others.

Journalism (as opposed to entertainment posing as news and some politicians) has a moral compass:



https://caj.ca/ethics-guidelines
It's become very much a political issue. From top to bottom you have a group denying the science, the same group denying climate change. One person fighting for reelection, others scared to go against him, and other followers.

Somehow masks and not gathering in groups and social distancing became political. To those opposing them it's somehow a matter of "constitutional rights." I'm still looking for that part of the constitution. The constitution doesn't grant unlimited rights. If so, we'd have no speed limits, no seat belt laws, no laws even against murder.

I'm personally offended and angry at those who are walking around without masks and exposing others and, in turn, putting me, putting my family, putting my friends at greater risk.

I'm bothered when someone campaigning for political office comes to my state for a rally, a state with a serious problem, then speaks to a group of others copying him and not wearing a mask. Will it be super spreaders like Tulsa. Even losing friends and supporters apparently don't make an impact. Recently he said people should wear masks but refuses and then denies their value.

You know if you know you have AIDS and have sex without informing your partner and they get it you can be charged with a serious crime. If they die, even murder, depraved indifference, if not intent. Of course those not wearing masks would claim they don't have Covid 19 but if they haven't been tested on that day, they could. It's perhaps not chargeable but it is most definitely depraved indifference.

It's illegal to drive drunk and the likelihood of it causing death is no greater than exposing others to Covid 19.

Why our leaders lack the good sense or the courage to require masks in public is just unfathomable to me. Why they allow groups like the camp in Georgia or large church groups or weddings or funerals I don't know. Yes, you take away those rights to protect the rights and safety of the public. A matter of public interest.

Now pushing for kids and teachers to return to the classroom but no ideas of how to safely do so. If you could have them all live there and test them daily you could do it, like the NBA bubble.

I've never seen such a disregard for human life. I don't know how it became political. I don't know why we had to turn on science. I do know that it's just wrong. Forget the politics, we'd all agree that disregard for human life, for the safety of the people would be wrong. Politics doesn't make it right.
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:37 PM   #1731
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Man, you folks have some severe cases of TDS buying into this crap.....
It amazes me how people can interpret things so differently, so I went on a quick search for answers:

Quote:
Perception is not reality, but, admittedly, perception can become a person’s reality (there is a difference) because perception has a potent influence on how we look at reality.

Think of it this way. Perception acts as a lens through which we view reality. Our perceptions influence how we focus on, process, remember, interpret, understand, synthesize, decide about, and act on reality. In doing so, our tendency is to assume that how we perceive reality is an accurate representation of what reality truly is. But it’s not. The problem is that the lens through which we perceive is often warped in the first place by our genetic predispositions, past experiences, prior knowledge, emotions, preconceived notions, self-interest, and cognitive distortions.

…At a societal level, when different individuals or constituencies develop perceptions that are so far apart, one immense problem is that no common ground can be found. This disconnect is exemplified in our current political climate where people of different political stripes have such diametrically opposed perceptions that it becomes impossible to orchestrate consensus or govern. The result is paralysis (Congress) or hostility (hate crimes). Going to extremes, a massive divide between perceptions in a country would likely lead to a slow, but steady, disintegration of the institutions that hold a society together (dystopian themes in literature and film or, well, our world today).
Then he goes on to give some pointers:

Quote:
* Don’t assume that your perceptions are reality (just your reality)

* Be respectful of others’ perceptions (they may be right)

* Don’t hold your perceptions too tightly; they may be wrong (admitting it takes courage)

* Recognize the distortions within you that may warp your perceptions (seeing them will better ground your perceptions in reality rather than the other way around)

* Challenge your perceptions (do they hold up under the microscope of reality?)

* Seek out validation from experts and credible others (don’t just ask your friends because they likely have the same perceptions as you)

* Be open to modifying your perceptions if the preponderance of evidence demands it (rigidity of mind is far worse than being wrong)
(bold type mine)

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...is-not-reality

The pointers he gives require a form of empathy...something of limited depth or even absolutely missing in some people.
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Old 08-02-2020, 02:12 AM   #1732
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Melbourne and Victoria are ramping up to new Stage 4 and Stage 3 restrictions. The pandemic continues to run out of control there.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...-rise/12515914
To avoid apoplexy, the politically sensitive should not read related reports referenced.
It`s the consequence of botched Melbourne quarantine of overseas arrivals. Other States are confronting local outbreaks caused by travelling/fleeing Victorians, some innocent,some highly culpable, spreading the virus.
We got tested today. Strange process. Mild to mid range symptoms, no fevers, expecting negative results. Partner works in a hospital so testing was indicated. In and out in an hour,well done NSW Health Dept. Quarantine until results are back, hopefully not after.
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Old 08-02-2020, 07:37 AM   #1733
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"TDS"?

"Truth Demands Saying"?
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Old 08-02-2020, 07:45 AM   #1734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MurrayM View Post
It amazes me how people can interpret things so differently, so I went on a quick search for answers:



Then he goes on to give some pointers:



(bold type mine)

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...is-not-reality

The pointers he gives require a form of empathy...something of limited depth or even absolutely missing in some people.
You should maybe hold that mirror at a better angle so you can see yourself.......
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:12 AM   #1735
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Speaking to the illogic presented by poster speaking about cold.

There’s a principal in ALL of science.

Correlation does not prove causation.

All evidence suggests SARS-covid-2 spread is NOT curtailed by cold ambient temperatures. Rather it is spread by close proximity leading to droplet transmission and/or prolonged exposure of aerosols with adequate density of virus.
Due to the crescendo effect as the virus spreads through a population if the virus is introduced when its cold numbers will jump when its cold. If introduced when its warm numbers will jump when its warm. In fact the major concern now is how to do schooling in the USA. Cold means being indoors for that activity. Being indoors with standard HVAC systems means higher likelihood of infectious aerosols. That means much greater risk to teachers.

Major problem in the US is an anti-science attitude. Scientists work with probabilities. For the natural sciences be it medicine, biology, anthropology or whatever once several independent studies demonstrate a null hypothesis as being unlikely at a 5% level it is accepted as true. In other words if a statement has a 95% or greater likelihood of being true it’s accepted as true. But science evolves. There are sudden shifts in basic paradigm. Newtonian physics is NOT true. General field theory is true. But Newtonian physics is what we see and works on a day to day level so the majority of the country would laugh at you if you told them time slows up the faster you move. Similarly made made climate change is true at the standard it’s unlikely to be untrue much less than one in 20 chances.
Same is seen with covid. In the absence of personal impact the known easily demonstrated epidemiological truths are discounted.
Emotion conflates the ability to teach the basic scientific method. The public health failures date back to failures where untruths are propagated in childhood (creationism and the like) and the scientific method not being taught effectively. Current internet discussion, policy, nature and action of current politicians are a reflection of a large segment of the US population having core beliefs that are contrary to known fact.
This will only change will a change in gestalt for this population. That will only occur when they are motivated to do so and approached in a respectful manner.
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:31 AM   #1736
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Originally Posted by Hippocampus View Post
Speaking to the illogic presented by poster speaking about cold.

There’s a principal in ALL of science.

Correlation does not prove causation.

All evidence suggests SARS-covid-2 spread is NOT curtailed by cold ambient temperatures. Rather it is spread by close proximity leading to droplet transmission and/or prolonged exposure of aerosols with adequate density of virus.
Due to the crescendo effect as the virus spreads through a population if the virus is introduced when its cold numbers will jump when its cold. If introduced when its warm numbers will jump when its warm. In fact the major concern now is how to do schooling in the USA. Cold means being indoors for that activity. Being indoors with standard HVAC systems means higher likelihood of infectious aerosols. That means much greater risk to teachers.

Major problem in the US is an anti-science attitude. Scientists work with probabilities. For the natural sciences be it medicine, biology, anthropology or whatever once several independent studies demonstrate a null hypothesis as being unlikely at a 5% level it is accepted as true. In other words if a statement has a 95% or greater likelihood of being true it’s accepted as true. But science evolves. There are sudden shifts in basic paradigm. Newtonian physics is NOT true. General field theory is true. But Newtonian physics is what we see and works on a day to day level so the majority of the country would laugh at you if you told them time slows up the faster you move. Similarly made made climate change is true at the standard it’s unlikely to be untrue much less than one in 20 chances.
Same is seen with covid. In the absence of personal impact the known easily demonstrated epidemiological truths are discounted.
Emotion conflates the ability to teach the basic scientific method. The public health failures date back to failures where untruths are propagated in childhood (creationism and the like) and the scientific method not being taught effectively. Current internet discussion, policy, nature and action of current politicians are a reflection of a large segment of the US population having core beliefs that are contrary to known fact.
This will only change will a change in gestalt for this population. That will only occur when they are motivated to do so and approached in a respectful manner.
In 24 posts (as of this writing) you’ve done more to bring logic and sanity to this discussion than anyone I can think of. Thank you for being such an effective counterweight to the armchair epidemiologists, contrarians and trolls that peddle their BS on this and so many other sites.
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:35 AM   #1737
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None in my extended family has caught the virus, and none of us own giraffes. I have spotted a trend. Now, if one of us gets infected, I may have to think about penguins.
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:36 AM   #1738
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I am expecting the usual, terse, "You're just brainwashed", " etc. to this post from most here, regardless of facts. So anyway, here's another perspective and according to MM's psychological research, we'll see how it goes.

One of the biggest differences between the US and other countries when comparing how the different administrations are handling the virus is that in the US, public health and safety are delegated to the LOCAL and STATE governments. It is part of the constitution - some here should probably read it sometime.

It is not valid to compare other countries' response to the virus to the US when decisions, lock downs, etc. are made at the top for the entire country. Here in the US, these decisions, good or bad, are made at the local level and NOT the responsibility of the president/administration. The president has said this many times. The federal government is there to support the local municipalities, not direct them. That is China, North Korea, and others

Yes, top-down country-wide mandates, etc. ARE better in handling a pandemic of this nature (see N. Korea). Dictatorships work well with pandemics. This is not arguable. However, that is not how the founders set up US constitution -- it is not a dictatorship.

So don't compare how a dictatorship/authoritarian country has handled COVID to the US and then blame everything on the federal government - it just makes you look uninformed.

One may argue that this should be different. One may ALSO argue that the benefits of the bottom-up constitution the way it is far outweighs the negatives (see N. Korea for other qualities of life) for this situation if the local municipalities are handling it well. It doesn't matter today - that is what is in the constitution.

The administration has already done many things that the constitution does allow it to do - closing the borders with China and Europe, saving 1000's of lives (Fauci - the scientist - now saying he was wrong), and being vilified for it. Bringing together scientists, the military, industry, and economists for advice and listening to all of them. Just because a decision is made that doesn't agree with ONLY the scientists recommendations doesn't make for a "science denier" - there are many other variables to consider for the long-term health of an entire country than just the immediate science. A leader considers all input (remember the censoring data discussion above?)

Yes, the administration has fallen down a NUMBER of times during this crisis - as any leadership would, and I am a HUGE critic of the idiotic lame tweets and statements that are so freakin' stupid and easily twisted into a political firestorm (lots here are having fun with those). However, I look at the actions of an administration, not what they say.

I would say that none here, or any other previous administration would have done as well (see Obama/Biden's non-handling of the last virus - no spin needed) or commanded such participatory respect from all aspects of the country's economic, industrial, and logistical leaders. Can you imagine ANY of the previous administrations generating the enthusiasm and drive to convert entire manufacturing facilities from car parts to medical ventilators?! In how much time? The mobilization of the private sector for the manufacture of PPE, testing instrumentation and logistics, and other medical needs is unprecedented. THIS is leadership in action - whether you hate the tweets or not. No other administration could have achieved this - period.

Yes, actions could have been started earlier, but remember those 100 other variables that are part of the decision? It ALL has to be considered by a leadership team - not just what you want to believe armchair quarterbacking months later. Dr. Birx (the "science", remember?) herself was telling the administration that it wasn't as bad as we now know. She said:
"I think when you talk about, 'Could we have known something different?' – you know, I think all of us – I mean, I was overseas when this happened, in Africa," Birx said during Tuesday's daily White House coronavirus task force briefing.

"And I think when you looked at the China data originally, and you said, 'Oh, well there's 80 million people,' or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hubei, and they come up with a number of 50,000, you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic ...

"So I think the medical community made – interpreted the Chinese data as, that this was serious but smaller than anyone expected, because I think probably we were missing significant amount of the data, now that when we see what happened to Italy and we see what happened to Spain."
Anyway - I get tired of the bashing from people who have all the answers after the fact (and listen to only the ones who agree with them).
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:39 AM   #1739
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Major problem in the US is an anti-science attitude.
This is simply not true in my opinion. This is such a blanket statement and it skews reality.

Running a country is not just about the science. I AM a scientist by nature (and career) - but that is not the only thing to consider at all times for the overall best outcome of a crisis.

Just because a decision is made that is antithetical to the best science, doesn't mean it is the wrong decision or that one is a science denier.
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Old 08-02-2020, 08:40 AM   #1740
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You should maybe hold that mirror at a better angle so you can see yourself.......
Have and do.

I've never jumped on a band wagon or been a herd follower for the right, the left, or subscribed to any organized world view (religion).

Free thinker through and through, which means, I actually look at all sides of an issue before making up my mind.

Reanalysis ongoing
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