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Old 10-17-2020, 06:50 PM   #2341
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And with all of the policies and procedures invoked, not one C-19 case has been prevented. Only deferred.
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Old 10-17-2020, 07:11 PM   #2342
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Great friend who had to rub it in "if you play with fire you get burned!" I had flown to RI to relieve a pilot who came down with Covid. I flew with the other pilot who had flown with him - but tested negative that day. We flew to Chicago and I jumped on an airliner to STL. That pilot came down with symptoms and tested positive three days later. I was within two feet of him in the cockpit without a mask (very difficult to talk with Air Traffic Control and thru an intercom with a mask on). I am still had no symptoms two weeks later. I am 68 and still working. So, I told him, you are very lucky to be able to stay home and sell corporate jets without ever seeing them or leaving your office - and still get a huge paycheck. Others are not so fortunate and need to work to keep the world turning. And, "If no pilots fly those jets, they sure as heck don't need you to sell them one!!!"

He hasn't called back lately.

The world goes on - someone needs to work and keep those supply chains open - or the ensuing chaos will far outweigh the effects of Covid.
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Old 10-17-2020, 07:29 PM   #2343
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And with all of the policies and procedures invoked, not one C-19 case has been prevented. Only deferred.
Even that were so, time was bought to set up treatment facilities, manufacture respirators and other equipment, to not overwhelm facilities,etc.
To say cases have been deferred implies everyone must contract it. Perhaps so in some places but look outside borders, there are countries where the virus is well controlled and life is not as abnormal. Will it remain that way? Maybe, maybe not.
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Old 10-17-2020, 08:28 PM   #2344
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sbu22 I’m curious do you have any facts to back up your statement? If so please share them. If not please realize you made a non evidence based statement. In short a totally unsupported opinion with out a shred of evidence to back it.
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Old 10-17-2020, 09:53 PM   #2345
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Tom, did you see the morning news. Something called (Mis C) was mentioned by Dr Bonnie Henry. This report was about children getting something that is not covid but has similar illness. You know back to school they are focusing on the kids, but I am wondering if this new thing is going through the parents too.

Symptoms
Signs and symptoms of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) include those below, though not all children have the same symptoms.

Fever that lasts 24 hours or longer
Vomiting
Diarrhea
Pain in the stomach
Skin rash
Feeling unusually tired
Fast heartbeat
Rapid breathing
Red eyes
Redness or swelling of the lips and tongue
Redness or swelling of the hands or feet
Headache, dizziness or lightheadedness
Enlarged lymph nodes

Emergency warning signs of MIS-C
Severe stomach pain
Difficulty breathing
Bluish lips or face
New confusion
Inability to wake up or stay awake
MIS-C is an inflammatory syndrome which affects multiple systems. It has been found most often in kids who either test positive (98%) or have been around those with Covid 19 (the other 2%). It seems to be coming from the same virus even if symptoms are very different. This is also the sadness when people are saying the virus doesn't affect kids. It doesn't at the same rate, but then Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome is far worse than if they were just experiencing the normal symptoms of the virus.

There are 1097 cases reported in the US with 20 deaths. However, probably many more not reported and not even discovered yet. The average age is 8. 41% are Hispanic and 35% are Black Non-Hispanic. Only 14% are White Non-Hispanic. It is very similar to Kawasaki disease.
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Old 10-18-2020, 09:55 AM   #2346
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And with all of the policies and procedures invoked, not one C-19 case has been prevented. Only deferred.
Respectfully, I don't see how this is true. It is not inevitable that we will have 330 million folks in the U.S. catch covid19. Many other countries, using good health practices, have severely curbed their number of infections. Sadly, that is not the case here is the U.S.

It is not rocket science, and we do not need a miracle to get our infection numbers down. It would be such a ridiculously easy thing to do. All it would take for us to follow good health practices: wear a mask, wash your hands, and social distance. As no vaccine will be 100% effective (and some folks wont get vaccinated) these measures will be needed even AFTER a vaccine is available to the general public.

Deferring catching the virus is also a plus. 'Flattening the curve' helps assure that health care (especially ICU beds) are available to those who need them. It also helps assure that effective treatments are available to those who might benefit from them.

God bless our front line health care workers, many of whom, especially early in the pandemic, have work long hours in abysmal conditions taking care of those who needed care the most.

Jim
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Old 10-18-2020, 10:17 AM   #2347
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Great friend who had to rub it in "if you play with fire you get burned!" I had flown to RI to relieve a pilot who came down with Covid. I flew with the other pilot who had flown with him - but tested negative that day. We flew to Chicago and I jumped on an airliner to STL. That pilot came down with symptoms and tested positive three days later. I was within two feet of him in the cockpit without a mask (very difficult to talk with Air Traffic Control and thru an intercom with a mask on). I am still had no symptoms two weeks later. I am 68 and still working. So, I told him, you are very lucky to be able to stay home and sell corporate jets without ever seeing them or leaving your office - and still get a huge paycheck. Others are not so fortunate and need to work to keep the world turning. And, "If no pilots fly those jets, they sure as heck don't need you to sell them one!!!"

He hasn't called back lately.

The world goes on - someone needs to work and keep those supply chains open - or the ensuing chaos will far outweigh the effects of Covid.
I would question the wisdom of your employer in exposing other employees to the pilot you flew with, given the degree of false negative test results AND him previously in such close contact with another pilot who did come down with Covid-19

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Old 10-18-2020, 02:11 PM   #2348
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Many other countries, using good health practices, have severely curbed their number of infections. Sadly, that is not the case here is the U.S. Jim
Although I agree, with larger population countries the current results are equally if not worse than the US. It still seems, worldwide, that avoiding the hot spots, staying out of crowded closed buildings, distancing, and mask up really work. What else can we do?

What is your area like Jim for COVID avoidance awareness? During the past 6 months the specific areas we have spent time are doing pretty well. But and intentionally so, we've been to no hot spot exposure areas. And fortunately no need to work in the "wrong" surroundings.
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Old 10-18-2020, 02:41 PM   #2349
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Respectfully, I don't see how this is true. It is not inevitable that we will have 330 million folks in the U.S. catch covid19. Many other countries, using good health practices, have severely curbed their number of infections. Sadly, that is not the case here is the U.S.

It is not rocket science, and we do not need a miracle to get our infection numbers down. It would be such a ridiculously easy thing to do. All it would take for us to follow good health practices: wear a mask, wash your hands, and social distance. As no vaccine will be 100% effective (and some folks wont get vaccinated) these measures will be needed even AFTER a vaccine is available to the general public.

Deferring catching the virus is also a plus. 'Flattening the curve' helps assure that health care (especially ICU beds) are available to those who need them. It also helps assure that effective treatments are available to those who might benefit from them.

God bless our front line health care workers, many of whom, especially early in the pandemic, have work long hours in abysmal conditions taking care of those who needed care the most.

Jim
Jim,
You and others must admit that until ONLY negative test results are returned that you do not know how many people are are walking around positive. The WHO estimates 10% of the world, taken literally means that the US has 33M positive cases but as of today has identified only 8M.

The US CDC has come out and agreed that this virus is airborne. That makes social distancing of 6 feet mute. Washing hands often after touching stuff with unknown contamination always made sense. It was just a few years ago a report given where use of hand sanitizer removes good bacteria, yet now you now need to not only wash but add sanitizer.
Masks do not protect the user, only others. Now that the virus is known to be airborne, a person can exhale between mask and skin. Even with everyone in a space like a grocery store wearing a mask can now expect to walk into an exhaled cloud of virus and breath it in. Little is known as to what amounts to enough to cause you to become positive. If 100% of the population were to wear masks there still would be infections.
Planes are back to filling all seats, good luck with that ride.
Flattening the curve allows front line workers the ability to manage the problem, nothing more. With an estimated 21M positive people walking around asymptomatic there is every chance that this will continue until all 331M catch the virus or get a vaccine to prevent catching it.

If only this much attention was paid to the common cold or flu pharma would be out of business.
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Old 10-18-2020, 02:56 PM   #2350
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"Masks do not protect the user, only others." This has been around forever and seems to be generally accepted as true.

Can someone explain to me how mask fabric can be uni-directional? Droplets and airborne particles would penetrate at the same rate going in or coming out - no?

Are they (arbitrarily) assigning some sort of probabilities to a percentage reduction in a many-to-one vs. one-to-many scenario? If so, it seems a bit disingenuous and not exactly factual.

A little late to be asking, but it's been bugging me the whole time.....
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Old 10-18-2020, 03:14 PM   #2351
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Mask wearing to me is a lot like plastic recycling, airport security and some of our more arcane social programs.

Good in theory. Makes society feel like they are contributing to a valuable cause. Creates a whole system that is visual and participation can be monitored.

But the results may not be congruent to the good intention when actually measured or if it is even measurable.

Milton Friedman said something about it.

"One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results."

Note. I participate in three of the four. I recycle, go through airport security (weekly basis) and I wear a mask. I think we could bypass the middlemen of many social programs and just give the end user cash.

But I still believe they all fall somewhere between placebo and mildly effective.
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Old 10-18-2020, 03:25 PM   #2352
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Boathealer,
From memory, and I am not spending the time to look up the references from the studies and testing, the largest benefit to wearing cloth masks or the so called "surgical" mask is to "slow down" the spread of particles and droplets from someone who is sick. They help to contain the particles and droplets greatly curtailing the spread in both distance travelled and amount. Some leakage around the edges does occur depending on what is happening (talking, coughing, sneezing being worst). Viral load has been shown to play a large role in both whether or not a person exposed will even get sick, or also how sick the person is likely to get. Lower load, less sick as the body has a chance to start the process of mounting it's natural defence before large amounts of virus are present.

If there is a large viral load present, as in a sick person coughs or sneezes in your vicinity and he/she is not wearing any mask, then your possibly loose fitting cloth mask is not going to stop all of the particles and you may still get infected. However, your mask might still reduce the viral load you experience possibly resulting in a less severe illness.

From the test results I remember, if everyone were to wear even cloth masks, fitting reasonably well, the chances of transmission drop to about 1% in an environment where without any masks transmission would normally be expected to occur. Again, other health measures are important as well.
Due especially to the stances taken early in the pandemic by politicians and public health (probably to protect the supplies for health care workers), there still persists many who do not see any or very little benefit to masks. The evidence is mounting to the contrary, however, we are far from being able to fully benefit due to resistance to many public health measures. Some still insist on attending large indoor gatherings as well.
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Old 10-19-2020, 05:31 AM   #2353
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Interesting that our gov. that tries to regulate everything has no standards for the dust rag worn for protection!
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Old 10-19-2020, 07:55 AM   #2354
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Talking about two things. In and out. Droplet and aerosol. Cloth is sufficient to impend droplet but not as effective with aerosol. Most of cough or even a sneeze comes out of your mouth not nose. Most of your breathing comes through your nose if your not a mouth breather. So you need a minimal quanta of infectious particles to leave the infectious index case and contaminate the surrounds sufficiently to allow infection of the new host. Cloth is sufficient to do that with brief casual contact.
Aerosols are more problematic. Density of the aerosol is the determinant. Outdoors with any kind of wind and due to inverse square law is unlikely a sufficient density of infectious particles will reach a new host as to produce infection. However this could occur in an enclosed space.
The army just released a study looking at airplanes. They used non N95 masks but did look at aerosols. They said with current airplane ventilation systems as long as everyone was masked risk of infection would be low. I’m not entirely satisfied. Many people don’t wear masks correctly. In their study they did. Many people can be expected to momentarily remove their masks during a long flight. Rub their nose or blow it. Take a sip of water or other activity. I’d still be reluctant to fly for now. I try to avoid using the head in airplanes at all costs even before the pandemic. I would be particularly concerned now. Believe that space is most likely to have higher likelihood and density of contamination. Also I’d pay attention to positivity rates from where I’m leaving and going and add that into my judgment about flying. We’re trying to buy a boat. This pandemic has been a great obstacle to that activity
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Old 10-20-2020, 11:06 AM   #2355
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Tuesday night in a COVID free Ho Chi Min City.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3l6nvp94vg...A0000.mp4?dl=0
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Old 10-20-2020, 12:52 PM   #2356
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Interesting you raise Vietnam Soin2la. The CV19 numbers for that country are virtually nil. The Asian press has for some time been talking about "natural" immunity that may possibly exist for some countries. Some good friends were in Vietnam in March 2020. They said at that time no mention was made of the virus with no masks, social distancing etc being practiced. As your video shows, the night spots, streets and bars were crowded. When they returned to the US in late March they said it was virus culture shock.

The global forensic medical analysis of this virus will be quite enlightening.
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Old 10-20-2020, 01:37 PM   #2357
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sunchaser;
In January, when this thing first appeared, Viet Nam slammed the door on China and Italy. They also took an aggressive stance with all others.

When cases started showing up in late March, they closed the schools and had a serious short term lockdown.

I can only speak to Ho Chi Minh City, which was an eerie ghost town for a few weeks and then suddenly just returned to near normal, with the exception of schools, which remained closed until mid-June.
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:08 PM   #2358
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sbu22 I’m curious do you have any facts to back up your statement? If so please share them. If not please realize you made a non evidence based statement. In short a totally unsupported opinion with out a shred of evidence to back it.
It’s interesting that your response comes one day following CDC’s announcement that the US recorded the greatest single day increase in Wuhan infections (70,000+) and WHO confirmed a new single day world record of 415,000+.

In direct response, if anybody had a proven instance of prevention, it wouldn’t be hard to research – it would be plastered over the evening news for days. In the absence of such news, I’m assuming there’s not an available preventative.

My zany concept that an effective preventative is not available comes from crazy stuff like this:

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelin...of-sars-cov-2/

Prevention and Prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection; Last Updated: August
27, 2020

Summary Recommendations

The COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) recommends against
the use of any agents for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), except in a clinical trial
(AIII).

The Panel recommends against the use of any agents for SARS-CoV-2 post-
exposure prophylaxis (PEP), except in a clinical trial (AIII).

Rating of Recommendations: A = Strong; B = Moderate; C = Optional

Rating of Evidence: I = One or more randomized trials with clinical
outcomes and/or validated laboratory endpoints; II = One or more well-
designed, nonrandomized trials or observational cohort studies; III = Expert
opinion

The short answer is: "We're still shooting blanks."

Deferral of infection and “flattening the curve” absolutely makes sense from
the logistical perspective. But that is not “prevention”.
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Old 10-20-2020, 02:46 PM   #2359
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Greetings,
Mr. 22. "...if anybody had a proven instance of prevention...". Sorta putting the cart before the horse, I'd say. Statistically, seat belts save lives but I don't ever recall any accident reports stating "The victim survived but he/she would have been dead if they hadn't been wearing their seat belt.

Similarly flu shots. Do they work? Statistically they do but who knows for sure. I get one every year and I haven't got the flu, so far. Got the old fart's dose this year.



I agree, there have been NO reports of infection prevention as a result of wearing a mask but I'm quite sure it IS the case and it can be "proven", statistically that they minimize the spread of disease/contamination. How much is minimize? I don't care. Similarly I don't think there is any evidence that hand sanitation or social distancing is any guarantee either. Even 1% is good enough for me.


As you're probably aware, I have no love for statistics but in this case it makes sense to me to mask up, sanitize and social distance.
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Old 10-20-2020, 04:05 PM   #2360
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And with all of the policies and procedures invoked, not one C-19 case has been prevented. Only deferred.
This statement is nonsensical.
To state that something was not prevented but only deferred requires certainty
of future events that only magical thinkers believe they have.
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