Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 04-07-2021, 10:06 PM   #701
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,885
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter B View Post
Let's just say, NZ and Australia got it more right than most. Such that this week they are jointly announcing finally a NZ-Aus trans-Tasman bubble, allowing quarantine free travel both ways.

Wow, congrats on both sides and record bookings..! Then just this morning, NZ announces that a hotel quarantine worker has tested positive - picked up no doubt by a returning traveler in quarantine. They have not cancelled the bubble, and are onto it smartly, but really, talk about bad luck...
Both countries have done an incredible job of contact tracing. For the most part, the US never tried.
__________________
Advertisement

BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2021, 10:31 PM   #702
Senior Member
 
AZ2Loop's Avatar
 
City: Carefree, AZ and Ft. Myers Beach, FL
Vessel Name: Sea-N-Stars
Vessel Model: 1990 49' Albin
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hippocampus View Post
Another concern is a potential distortion in the lay literature. Much has been written about vaccine acceptance in relationship to degree of religiosity and political party affiliation. But little about impact on testing. Without supporting data I have the belief (but not scientific support) that that those factors are in play with testing prevalence. I suspect those cohorts and the college age or working young/early middle age folks are less likely to obtain testing. Hence, the commonly reported statistic -per cent positive- is distorted. In other words that number maybe be less reliable in eastern Washington than in western. Or in Oklahoma than New York. Or in Florida or Texas than Connecticut or Massachusetts.
.....
Last spring someone was mocked and laughed at for suggesting what Hippocampus so eloquently states above . The more you test, the more positive cases you will find. The less you test, the less you will find. Hippo expanded on that sound logic by suggesting there are specific groups that are less likely to obtain testing (Oklahoma vs New York, as one of his examples) and would therefore be under reported, or less reliable as he stated. It matters not whether there is any statistical difference in one group from another. What matters is that the number of positive cases is pretty obviously and unavoidably under reported.



This is another COVID blessing in many ways. Is it not wonderful that so many are equipped with such an effective immune system that they never feel ill or suffer in anyway despite being COVID positive? How fortunate and how remarkable! A virus that can be deadly may not even give them the sniffles! In addition to Hippo's suggestion above about specific groups being less likely to obtain testing, this asymptomatic status is a major contributing factor to the under reporting across all groups. Untested/unreported cases, no matter the reason change the math -- and they change it a lot. As a result our country's 1.8% death rate is overstated. The hospitalization rate is overstated. The "severe case" rate is overstated. It is a mathematical certainty the denominator in those calculations is understated, and likely significantly. While it is nearly impossible for the numerator to be understated.
__________________

AZ2Loop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2021, 11:27 PM   #703
Guru
 
MurrayM's Avatar
 
City: Kitimat, North Coast BC
Vessel Name: Badger
Vessel Model: 30' Sundowner Tug
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 7,291
4,195 people in Brazil died yesterday:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56657818
__________________
"The most interesting path between two points is not a straight line" Murray Minchin
MurrayM is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 01:49 AM   #704
Guru
 
BruceK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 12,107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter B View Post
Let's just say, NZ and Australia got it more right than most. Such that this week they are jointly announcing finally a NZ-Aus trans-Tasman bubble, allowing quarantine free travel both ways.

Wow, congrats on both sides and record bookings..! Then just this morning, NZ announces that a hotel quarantine worker has tested positive - picked up no doubt by a returning traveler in quarantine. They have not cancelled the bubble, and are onto it smartly, but really, talk about bad luck...
If anyone moves to suspend the Au/NZ bubble it will be Australia, but commencement is a while away, if it doesn`t go beyond the(unvaccinated!) security worker it should not be a barrier to commencement. Less bad luck, more failure to immunize. But I`m guessing NZ has the same difficulty we have, getting hold of the vaccine we ordered.

Meanwhile Australia watches nervously as Victoria State today begins its third try at returnee quarantining, hopefully without another escape. With Premier "Chairman Dan of Danistan" on sick leave after falling down stairs, maybe it has a chance.

I feel for Canada. I`ve visited 4 times, always felt welcome, we met some Canadians in Galway Ireland couple of years back,sharing a restaurant table.
No one, no country, can get complacent. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and it will have hurdles where we least expect them.
__________________
BruceK
2005 Integrity 386 "Sojourn"
Sydney Australia
BruceK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 06:49 AM   #705
Senior Member
 
AZ2Loop's Avatar
 
City: Carefree, AZ and Ft. Myers Beach, FL
Vessel Name: Sea-N-Stars
Vessel Model: 1990 49' Albin
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by BandB View Post
Both countries have done an incredible job of contact tracing. For the most part, the US never tried.
Australia has had tremendous success. They did so with hardly any closures. Frankly they went against a lot of advice on this thread. With very few exceptions, they have lived normal lives. Their success came without the vaccine. Their positive cases have been extremely low for over 6 months, yet their vaccine rollout started kind of late. They were not big on mask mandates. There were exceptions, but they mostly did not recommend masks for those who were not ill. Speaking of the healthy.... they did not lock up the healthy. They went against the recommendations of the World Health Organization and did so early. They employed common sense (social distancing, washing hands, stay home if you feel sick) and did not panic their society. Perhaps they were also lucky. They certainly have a geographic separation advantage, but they demonstrated common sense throughout and are to be envied.
AZ2Loop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 06:51 AM   #706
Senior Member
 
AZ2Loop's Avatar
 
City: Carefree, AZ and Ft. Myers Beach, FL
Vessel Name: Sea-N-Stars
Vessel Model: 1990 49' Albin
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 304
Pretty well done, Australia.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william...h=75f287e83a01
AZ2Loop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 07:16 AM   #707
Guru
 
City: Barrington
Vessel Name: Hippocampus
Vessel Model: Boatless at present
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 1,379
AZ wished I shared your optimism. There’s a major confounder in your analysis which you recognize. They weren’t on the initial spread pathway. NYC and biogen meeting in Boston for the USA. Nor the pathway into Europe (multi focal but Italy a major site.
The combination of that and excellent public Heath measures to prevent ingress of infected vectors probably has more to do with subsequent events. If a population is initially not exposed with virus disseminated they will do better. Once a population is sufficiently seeded with vectors it’s a uphill climb and masks, social distancing, quarantine and lock downs are likely necessary.
The weeks to months where the prior administration denied the severity of the pathogen, and need for public health measures allowed the virus to seed the population beyond that critical point. To imply that Australia’s different approach was different only is to say the situation in Australia was different and needed a different course of action.
Please note many of the current hotspots, most noticeable are the US and Brazil, are places where public health measures weren’t supported by their federal lead politicians. Especially when it mattered most -initially. Now when needed there’s a significant proportion of the population who are resistant. Often enough to make the public health measures much more ineffective.

It’s notable there’s a trial going on in Vietnam and elsewhere for a new vaccine. It’s cheap and could be produced locally in second world countries. At present these populations are dependent on the AZ vaccine which is having its continuing difficulties. If it works that’s great news.

The events in the upper Midwest are disconcerting. Even elsewhere the shift is to younger and younger people. In my state it’s grade school kids. One of my sons in law is a middle school teacher. They have a toddler at home who goes to daycare. The obvious increased risk for transmission exists as he is 100% in person next week. He says a few weeks of in person isn’t going to have a major impact educationally. Obviously there’s social and emotional benefits but schools over shortly so it’s a brief perc. Personally believe CDC is correct on this one. We know this population is having a rapid increase. Doesn’t make sense to create situations where spread is more likely.
Hippocampus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 07:29 AM   #708
JLD
Guru
 
City: Maryland
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 668
However, the person that I am thinking of last spring (may or may not be the same person), was using reduced testing as a way of showing the pandemic was not as big of a deal as it actually was.

I think Hippo is spot on his post.

However, there is no question that the more people tested (the larger the sample size) the more accurate the data. Also, from a contact tracing standpoint, the more testing, the more folks with potential exposure can be alerted. It would be very difficult to support a case that less testing is better than more testing.

Positivity rates are important, but they are not the only numbers used to drive public health decisions. Real numbers, not influenced by groups not being tested, are the number (not rates) of hospitalization and the number of deaths (not rates) from Covid-19.

Jim
JLD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 07:51 PM   #709
Guru
 
BruceK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 12,107
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ2Loop View Post
Australia has had tremendous success. They did so with hardly any closures. Frankly they went against a lot of advice on this thread. With very few exceptions, they have lived normal lives. Their success came without the vaccine. Their positive cases have been extremely low for over 6 months, yet their vaccine rollout started kind of late. They were not big on mask mandates. There were exceptions, but they mostly did not recommend masks for those who were not ill. Speaking of the healthy.... they did not lock up the healthy. They went against the recommendations of the World Health Organization and did so early. They employed common sense (social distancing, washing hands, stay home if you feel sick) and did not panic their society. Perhaps they were also lucky. They certainly have a geographic separation advantage, but they demonstrated common sense throughout and are to be envied.
The key to management here has been contact tracing. If it`s well done, and fast, it works. If infections get away, it gets hard. So when Victoria had a "quarantine' breakout, their tracing, not good at the best of times, was swamped, and most of Australia`s deaths resulted.
Victoria and New South Wales states had lengthy lockdowns, especially Victoria which had a hard lockdowns(one was very hard initially) so we probably did lock up the healthy. Other lockdowns have been short, and localised.
And you are right, we called "pandemic!" before the WHO.
Geographically we, and NZ, are lucky. But, we let our people living overseas return in restricted numbers, and quarantine them 14 days. I think all our outbreaks trace back to returnees except an early one from a US visitor here for a wedding infecting 36 fellow guests.
NZ has just suspended returnees from India, so many are infected their facilities were overwhelmed. NSW State takes 3000 returnees into quarantine every week, so you can imagine the risks we run.
Covid and complacency don`t play well together. We are very fortunate to have good,though not perfect, Govt. management.
Right now we are worried about Papua New Guinea to our immediate north. I think it`s rampant there, 50% of pregnant women test positive. Some patients threatened hospital staff with violence to escape. It`s an unsophisticated society, unless they get a handle on it, we`re helping, they are in big trouble,and it can easily island hop to FNQ (Far North Queensland)
__________________
BruceK
2005 Integrity 386 "Sojourn"
Sydney Australia
BruceK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 08:42 PM   #710
Guru
 
City: US PNW
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,019
Looking from the outside, I think one big key to Australia's success was managing its borders. It's easy to think "oh, it's an island," but most people have to pass through some type of border control whether a country be an island or not.

Australia managed EVERYONE coming into their country. That means it included Australian citizens. And there wasn't voluntary quarantine either, it was two weeks in a guarded motel (IIUC).

In contrast, the US kept out people from China and I think certain other countries, but didn't control its own citizens coming back from abroad (I had a US citizen friend come back from India at that time and she said the airport was absolutely packed with US returnees and they all pretty much just cruised right in, no special checks.

BruceK, please correct me if I'm mistaken.
Frosty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 10:26 PM   #711
TF Site Team
 
City: Ex-Brisbane, now Bribie Island, Qld
Vessel Name: Now boatless - sold 6/2018
Vessel Model: Had a Clipper (CHB) 34
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,728
For mine, you summed it all up pretty well, Frosty.
__________________
Pete
Peter B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2021, 11:43 PM   #712
Guru
 
BruceK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 12,107
Frosty, good summary. I`d add that we restrict our residents/citizens leaving Australia without approved reasons, knowing they`ll return from the infection overseas and need quarantining etc.
And we barred everyone else from entry, without special reasons. Some people were allowed to set up their own returnee quarantine at home(the rich, famous, influential etc) but there was a failure and infections ensued,so it got tougher, they pay to be supervised now.
Is it draconian? In a way yes, but it`s well supported generally and we are seeing the results, in freedom, confidence and economic activity. Could it have been done elsewhere, yes and no.
I would not travel overseas yet, except maybe NZ, and only after I`m vaccinated.
But, it`s a day by day thing. Covid likes complacency.
__________________
BruceK
2005 Integrity 386 "Sojourn"
Sydney Australia
BruceK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 12:22 AM   #713
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,885
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceK View Post
Frosty, good summary. I`d add that we restrict our residents/citizens leaving Australia without approved reasons, knowing they`ll return from the infection overseas and need quarantining etc.
And we barred everyone else from entry, without special reasons. Some people were allowed to set up their own returnee quarantine at home(the rich, famous, influential etc) but there was a failure and infections ensued,so it got tougher, they pay to be supervised now.
Is it draconian? In a way yes, but it`s well supported generally and we are seeing the results, in freedom, confidence and economic activity. Could it have been done elsewhere, yes and no.
I would not travel overseas yet, except maybe NZ, and only after I`m vaccinated.
But, it`s a day by day thing. Covid likes complacency.
And I see so many complacent here. It's amazing how groups will break free to spread. Malls have excellent compliance. We're long past having problems with people not wanting to mask in our stores. Costco has virtually no problems now with masking or distancing. But then you have the Texas Rangers Baseball team with 38,000 fans and a gathering in Arizona of 5,000 people and even large church services of 500 people. A lot of people who just had their first vaccine and act like they're fully protected. A huge increase in young people being infected while seniors infection rates are decreasing. Some areas a lot more compliant than others. We see huge differences just in different areas of FL and, unfortunately, distinct differences based on which party areas voted for in the last election so it's still very much a partisan issue.

Certainly, Australia and New Zealand have some inherent advantages in managing Covid 19, but they also took full advantage and were firm in taking some strategic steps.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 04:40 AM   #714
FF
Guru
 
FF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 21,767
"We see huge differences just in different areas of FL and, unfortunately, distinct differences based on which party areas voted for in the last election so it's still very much a partisan issue."


Its not a matter of voting ,10's of thousands of migrant children are not tested and are being sent across the country.
FF is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 06:22 AM   #715
Senior Member
 
AZ2Loop's Avatar
 
City: Carefree, AZ and Ft. Myers Beach, FL
Vessel Name: Sea-N-Stars
Vessel Model: 1990 49' Albin
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hippocampus View Post
AZ wished I shared your optimism. There’s a major confounder in your analysis which you recognize. .
I think you are confusing optimism with a lack of pessimism in my post. Optimism is to express hopefulness and confidence about a FUTURE outcome. You will see none of that in my post. I was positively commenting on past accomplishments.

All I did was agree with other posters that Australia has done well, and I shared some information about how they went about it. There was no analysis in my post. There was no optimism in my post. In fact most of my posts in this thread simply share statistics about what has already transpired, and there are some very positive statistics about what has been accomplished.

Take Texas, for example. Their new case load is now around 15% of what it was at the peak. Great progress! Many states can say the same. That is not optimism. It is simply math. It is not well received here, though. In contrast, predicting dire consequences for TX a few weeks ago because they opened up more, or wringing one's hands because they let fans in a baseball game, is pessimistic and welcomed with open arms.



Pessimism, as you know, is a tendency to see the worst in things, and/or to believe the worst will happen. You will see pessimism throughout this thread. Perhaps it is with merit. Perhaps not. It is plentiful nonetheless.

I will take your opening statement at face value and offer a thought that might help you. Consider pessimism and optimism as weights on opposite ends of a scale. If you truly want the scale to lean toward optimism (as implied in your opening statement), and find you have none to add to the scale, consider trying to reduce the pessimism first. If you can first get back to zero, you may find that action alone will make it more likely optimism may be found. Be careful, though, when it comes to the Coronavirus, a lack of pessimism is met with disdain.
AZ2Loop is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 06:26 AM   #716
Enigma
 
RT Firefly's Avatar
 
City: Slicker?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 15,311
Greetings,
Mr. FF. Nice try. While "immigrant" children may contribute a very, very, very small part in the spread of the virus I would suggest it is primarily the inaction of residents who don't abide by guidelines to limit the transmission.


Very easy to blame one's shortcomings on someone else much like the lack of acceptance of one's own responsibility for one's actions that has been mentioned numerous times in other TF threads, over the years.
__________________
RTF
RT Firefly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 07:27 AM   #717
Guru
 
City: Barrington
Vessel Name: Hippocampus
Vessel Model: Boatless at present
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 1,379
AZ in all aspects of medicine you rule out the worst diagnoses first unless they are vanishing rare. This isn’t a optimist/pessimist thing it’s just logical you address the most severe entities first in hopes of preventing a dire outcome or allowing time to address that outcome. Yes, that exercise is modified by probabilities but it’s a underlying thread in your thinking.
Similarly with this illness. If you look at isolated factoids you can be mislead.
British variant is rapidly becoming the predominant form in the US.
Evidence to suggest more infectious and ~68% increase in mortality..
Rate of change in incidence equal to or greater than initial major wave.
Vaccine program will not achieve herd immunity for the foreseeable future. ~1/3 states they will be non compliant.
Although there are two new treatments that actually seem safe and decrease viral load they are in early development. They won’t be available during this wave even if they come to market.
New variants are occurring inside the host (US) country as a sufficient actively infected breeding population persists.

So with the behavior of large segments not following public health measures, increased domestic travel, and a largely unvaccinated population at this point I’m not at all sanguine for the upcoming months. I don’t view this as pessimistic but rather a look at probabilities.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Hippocampus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 10:00 AM   #718
Guru
 
MurrayM's Avatar
 
City: Kitimat, North Coast BC
Vessel Name: Badger
Vessel Model: 30' Sundowner Tug
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 7,291
AZ...you may call my posts pessimism, I call it informed concern.

On this date last year the USA had 34,465 confirmed Covid-19 cases.

The new variants are at least twice as contagious.

If only 1/4 of the adult population is vaccinated and the virus is over twice as contagious, seems pretty obvious the numbers are going to spike again...soon.

Pretty sure the only prediction I've gotten wrong in the last year was that the global total was going to reach 1,000,000 confirmed cases a day in the last surge, but it stopped at around 844,000.

Given that each surge has been 3 times the last one, time will tell if this new surge fuelled by variants will crest the 1,000,000 a day mark.

Eyes wide open, head on a swivel.
__________________
"The most interesting path between two points is not a straight line" Murray Minchin
MurrayM is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 10:38 AM   #719
Guru
 
firehoser75's Avatar
 
City: Nanaimo
Vessel Name: former owner of "Pilitak"
Vessel Model: Nordic Tug 37
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,549
AZ,
I mostly agree, in general, with your comments about "optimism and pessimism".
However, I feel that it must be viewed within the context you are dealing with. In this case that context is a worldwide pandemic of an increasingly contagious disease with an increasing mortality rate and severity of illness. In that situation, using a continuum scale for optimism and pessimism, it seems "prudent" to hope for the best but plan for the worst (not necessarily on the extreme ends of the scale). Being overly optimistic and acting accordingly, can potentially lead to huge problems that are not easily dealt with, in this case. And, by the time "you" (all who are the non-medical public) find this out, it could be too late. I have seen examples of "death bed" confessions of this during this pandemic (where doubters on their deathbeds stated they took it "too lightly" and wished for a "do over").

I feel that most (but not all) posters to this thread, are taking a reasonable approach (including Murray ) to this unprecedented (at least in our lifetimes) worldwide event. Trying to rely on facts, information, and opinions from people with knowledge and experience in the relevant areas (which is sometimes hard to determine where good, trustworthy sources are).

I find it sad that people are so divided on this, when in fact, like it or not, we are actually "all in this together", and we have no choice on that (the virus does not allow us that choice).
__________________
Tom
Nanaimo, BC
firehoser75 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2021, 10:44 AM   #720
Guru
 
MurrayM's Avatar
 
City: Kitimat, North Coast BC
Vessel Name: Badger
Vessel Model: 30' Sundowner Tug
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 7,291
Quote:
Originally Posted by firehoser75 View Post
...However, I feel that it must be viewed within the context you are dealing with. In this case that context is a worldwide pandemic of an increasingly contagious disease with an increasing mortality rate and severity of illness...
...with a taste for younger and younger victims.
__________________

__________________
"The most interesting path between two points is not a straight line" Murray Minchin
MurrayM is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



» Trawler Port Captains
Port Captains are TF volunteers who can serve as local guides or assist with local arrangements and information. Search below to locate Port Captains near your destination. To learn more about this program read here: TF Port Captain Program





All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:39 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2006 - 2012
×